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Saturday stakes, Beyer adjustment, etc.
Starting to formulate my wagering strategy for Pimlico on Saturday. Does anyone know what the pic 6 minimum is Saturday. DRF is showing 25 cent pic 6 betting at Pimlico (on track information link), but Pimlico's website shows $1 minimum. Either way, will that be the standard on Saturday?? Also, does Pimlico do 10 cent supers and if so, will they be offered on Saturday???
Thanks, Dan (or whoever else can supply this info)
I believe the Pick 6 is a one dollar wager. I don't think dime superfectas are offered on Saturday's card, but am not 100% sure.
Yo Danny Boy,
Help me out:
Our 5yo mare Two Turn Halo is out @ Mth R8 on Sat. She originally ran a 96 bsf when they came out-a couple days after her last race. But, now she shows up sporting only and 85 bsf? I do realize that they sometimes change beyers and adjust if they fell it was over/understated. But, we ran faster than Cond. Alw males3&Up in the heat just after our race @ Aqu 3-21-08.
Our race: 110.13-- Now a 85bsf
Next race:110.54-- winner a 91 bsf.--------??????
Let me know: Because our prev. race had the third place finisher come back and win-- so that would give me the idea that it was a "live" race- And not one that would be considered for a downgrade.
I'm assuming that the Beyer was adjusted downward based on a projection, and the original number did look a bit out of whack. If Two Turn Halo really earned a 96 Beyer on March 21, then that would have been a number that was seven points better than her previous top, and an improvement of 26 points from her most recent race (which was a legitimate and decent third-place finish behind two next-out winners). The third-place finisher on March 21, Mt. Langfuhr, did return to win, but she only earned a 65 Beyer against conditioned 16K claimers, and she has consistently run in the mid to high 50's and 60's in recent starts. The runner-up on March 21, One Tough Belle returned to finish second with a 69 Beyer, one point higher than the projected number she received. The 96 seemed high not only for the winner, but for the other horses in the race, and that's probably why the number was downgraded.
I'm not saying that I agree with projected numbers, but I can see why they thought the original number was too high in this case.
Good luck tomorrow at Monmouth! We'll be rooting for you.
Best of luck to all this weekend,
Dan, Judging by BB's 100 bsf in his Preakness romp-- I'm guessing that the beyer does not take into account how throttled down, or how easily the horse is going. I thought BB had run a similar number to his 109 in the derby, w/ the derby being a better race b/c of how wide he was. With the # only @ 100- they are really thrashing the rest of the field, and showing how bad the rest truly are.
Alan, I believe the next lowest payouts on the pick 4 were in the $18K range......with some approaching $50K.....did not write any down, but that is my recollection....BTW, I wish you had touted Pays to Dream a little more....that horse cost me big time.....pic 6, pic 4, 2 pic 3's and if she somehow gets stuck in the rear of the pack and runs out of the money, I have a nice tri with a 50/1 in the 2 slot with the favorite out of the money.....ouch, I also had 2 of the big pic6 consolations on a $60 investment, also had 3 of 4 in the early pick 4. and did not like Macho in the Preakness....just not a good day for me Saturday.
I'm really concerned on how the winner came out of the Preakness ... I hope he's sound and good to go for the Belmont. During the race it sure looked like he was fidgeting around and couldn't keep his head forward to keep on task. His focus seemed to be elsewhere instead of the path ahead. This seemed to start right out of the gate. I would think by now the experience issue wouldn't be a problem as he's been in the gate a few times before ... Of course, I'm speaking about the winner of the Preakness ..... Kent D Wow! I'm not sure if I've ever seen a jockey spend so much time looking all over the place. I had to go to the chiropracter after watching his ride as my neck became sore watching him bend his. It probably would have been easier for him to just sit on Big Brown backwards! Wow from he can't win the Derby on only 3 starts to now having 2.5 times more races than the upcoming second choice to finish off the Triple Crown ... Afi
Jeff, nice post. C, Loved the 'going to Disney World' comment. Isn't that what Brady thought he would be saying last January, but instead, Peyton got to say it. Arazi, I don't know much about pedigree, but I'm sure Dan or one of the others will answer your question about BB and his potential, by way of pedigree, to get the Belmont Stakes distance. If my memory serves me, I think BB's Tomlinson (sp), was pretty good for the Derby distance so it may be OK for the Belmont Stakes distance. As you probably already know, there are some BB pedigree concerns, I think, about Boundary being in there, in regards to BB's ability to get the 1 1/2 miles. As for your winning or losing, I assumed that you had won on the Preakness the way you described your thoughts about impact of BB on the Preakness payouts. Congratulations on your other winnings. In my opinion, I don't take anything anyone says about their winnings unless they were posted ahead of time. Maybe you posted them and I missed them. The only exception I make, from a personal point of view, is when when a woman says she has won something, I believe them and trust them. And even if a woman does lie to me, I don't really care, because in general, I love most all persons of the kinder, gentler, courageous, and intelligent gender; so it doesn't make any difference to me. It's nothing personal, just a bias I guess, based on having been lied to in the past, by other guys,regarding their handicapping prowess, abilities, and winnings. That doesn't mean I object to your posting anything you want, but It's just how I view such things. In any event, good luck. I hope someone answers your question, because I would also like to know .
ClaireS, Glad you got some turf winners! Hope others are doing the same. Alan, I don't know about the others, but Kentucky Bear's Pick 4 payout was $18k +
Thank you guys, Arazi no offense taken. I think big brown is going to have no problem making the belmont distance. Thank you Alan and Stephen Taylor. We are hanging in there and we know one day we will have that Big Horse its just all about patience.
Before I forget.... ERDISTON (the horse I gave bloggers who paid $15.40 at Hawthorne) is going again on Memorial Day (mile turf starter allowance) He actually can handle all 3 surfaces so we're guessing it's a pretty easy spot. DAN- could you send me his last Beyer (along with Beau Jacques) Thanks,
A comment on the low payout on the exotics at the Preakness. As I said in an earlier post, I hit both the trifecta and the exacta again in the Preakness. Yet, unlike the Derby, the tri and exacta did not pay out much, nor did I expect them to. When I bet on a race like the Preakness with a favorite who at the most will pay 30 or 40 cents on a 2.00 win bet, I bet no win tickets, concentrate on exotics, going deep into the superfectas and playing the tri and the exacta as an "in the black" tactic only. I bet a total of $185 on the Preakness race 12, and won back more than that...but did not hit on any exacta wheels because the highest I wheeled in Macho Again and IC was in third and fourth on the wheel. This is a chance I am willing to take. Believe me, a BB on top $1200 superfecta would have been fine by me. Its the tradeoff you get when a favorite like BB is heavily bet and you see no way in beating him but still want to wager. To me, it makes more sense to hedge the superfecta bets with a trifecta wheel and an exacta wheel with the favorite on top and the entire field wheeled underneath. This is economically affordable for me as opposed to wheeling a superfecta for several hundred dollars. The amount I have to lay out is not justified by a payout which was much less than the trifecta payout in the Derby. Of course, more power to those who keep betting-and losing-against BB. BTW, Johnny Z and Calvin... Nice posts about the Native Dancer bloodline article by Ellen Parker. She does a nice job on her website, and is a big fan of the Blushing Groom-Runaway Groom bloodline from France, but she went over the top with her recent theory.
I answered my own question - or at least Simulcast Daily did: Big Brown - 100 Macho Again - 92 Icabad Crane - 91 Racecar Rhapsody - 90 Stevil - 83 Kentucky Bear - 77 Hey Byrn - 76 Giant Moon - 74 Tres Borrachos - 73 Yankee Bravo - 71 Gayego, Riley Tucker - 59 YUCK!! If only Giacomo was in the field...at least he could have matched that 100 Beyer!!! Although Uncle Steve, maybe they snuck cushion track overnight into Old Hilltop?? The unanswered question remains what would Big Brown's Beyer have been if he wasn't geared down and had to face decent competition?? I can't think of a similar situation to make any Beyer-to-Beyer comparison - Dan or anyone else, can you help? If you use the Beyer Lengths Adjustment Table to assume he could have won by "x" additional lengths, here is the Beyer adjustment (Race is 9.5f - Table only 9f or 10f): Add 9f 10f 1L: +2 +1 2L: +3 +3 3L: +5 +4 4L: +6 +5 A good scenario for Dutrow, IEAH, et al, is that we had the "bounce" hidden in the easy win - then watch out at the Belmont for a real special effort...
Oh by the way - Regarding the animal rights activists. I walked by them at 11:30. I counted about 12 - half holding signs of a picture showing eight belles down and about to be euthanized. I almost walked right by without even noticing them and the only reason why I did take notice is that there were about 3 tv crews. They certainly don't deserve the attention the media provides them - there is most likely far worse treatment - human to human on the preakness infield. The crowd all walked right by and that is what the media should do. Steve T is correct when he points out that they are masters of the media however. john r