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Saturday Spot Plays
Let's take a look at the Busanda from Aqueduct and the Marshua's River from Gulfstream.
BUSANDA STAKES - RACE 7 - AQUEDUCT:
The strategy here is to try and beat the 8-5 favorite on the morning line, SWEET SEVENTEEN. Two back, she may have taken advantage of an inside, speed-favoring track when winning her entry-level allowance condition over the Keeneland polytrack. Most recently, she failed to change leads again when a non-threatening second behind the good Canadian filly Tu Endie Wei at Woodbine. Her connections and company lines ensure that she'll take a good amount of money and she does draw an advantageous inside post with some tactical speed. But, I usually don't like horses stretching out when they haven't shown a willingness to make that final lead switch. Perhaps, she's simply better than the rest of the Busanda field, but I won't take a short price to find out.
Instead, I'll go with BOURBONSTREETGIRL, who finished third in her main track debut in the Grade 2 Demoiselle at Aqueduct on November 26. After hopping ever so slightly at the start, Bourbonstreetgirl was taken to midpack and the rail by jockey David Cohen. Entering the far turn, she was pushed out five wide by the eventual winner, the Todd Pletcher-trained Disposablepleasure. Forced to move prematurely at that juncture to avoid being taken out to the parking lot, Bourbonstreetgirl, a filly that I feel is more of a grinder with a short burst, could only finish one-paced in the stretch. With a better-timed move (i.e. one late run) and a bit of pace to attack, Bourbonstreetgirl could prove tough in the stretch.
CAPTIVATING LASS, a hulking Darley filly, finished behind Bourbonstreetgirl in the Demoiselle, but has a beautiful pedigree, gets the Lasix and blinkers makeover for Kiaran McLaughlin, and has a good amount of upside potential after encountering trouble last time out.
Selections: BOURBONSTREETGIRL, SWEET SEVENTEEN, CAPTIVATING LASS
MARSHUA'S RIVER - RACE 10 - GULFSTREAM:
I can't get past DAVERON, the logical favorite that just sold for $750,000 to Live Oak Plantation during the Keeneland November auction. Twice a graded winner in 2011, Daveron may have raced on the deeper inside footing of the Keeneland turf course when third behind Never Retreat and next-out Grade 1 winner Together in the Grade 1 First Lady on October 8. That was a very fast running of the First Lady and Daveron was bumped a few strides out of the gate as well as going into the first turn before settling down along the inside. She should get speed to attack in the Marshua's River and this distance is exactly what she wants.
In the exotics, I may use LOUVAKHOVA, who won her North American debut at Calder despite drifting out during the stretch drive. Note that this will be her first start against older horses. WALLIS draws in from the also-eligible list following a big win at Aqueduct, but must avoid a wide trip from the far outside post. JENNY'S SO GREAT stretches out following a turf sprint win at Tampa, but has done well going long in the past.
Selections: DAVERON, LOUVAKHOVA, WALLIS
More importantly, who do you like this weekend? I want to know.
Best of luck.
Steve T. - I am still laughing to myself after reading your post about the book your boys compiled about their dad. My favorite ".... look, you’re four foot tall, have a stronach the size of a vienna sausage and are aiming at a two foot hole, what the hell is the problem?” The second place vote is for the Waffle House remark.... I'm still smiling. Thanks for the humor and the reality of raising boys. I have a 4 year old who is learning how to "make bubbles" in the toilet instead of peeing everywhere else (floor, seat, hoop, tank).
Dan: Thanks for the prize, there was no delay in receiving the package from DRF. It’s back to Santa Anita again; I’ve selected the 7th Race on Thursday 1/12/12. In searching for a race to choose, my criteria were that the race be an Allowance race or a Stakes race on the grass. No surprise there. The reason I chose this race is because it was a route 1 ¼ mile on the grass and the hard part for me is that is an Allowance Optional Claimer. These races I find hard to figure. I also picked this one over the many other races I saw was because it has a couple of foreign breeds in the race. Thanks for the congrats Annie, SR Vegas, meathead01, tencentcielo, Dick W, blackseabass, ByanoseLelenz and all the other players of the HG exercises.
Steve T "The apple doesn't fall too far from the tree".... Makes you kinda swell up with pride don't it?
Annie LOL! ...of course he won't win because he is not a MKB! I thought his last was pretty impressive , though. Off to HOA stuff all day.. back later . Maybe I'll have to keep an eye on him, Spirit Rules - Festive Spirit may like to keep each other company ...lol!
Keith L, Thanks for the gentle reminder about Concord Bridge. Seems you were still giving British visitors a hard time all those years ago. Two important things to remember about that War, - The Brits were playing away from home. Thankfully, we haven't had a proper home fixture since 1066. - Given the threat posed by the French over here, a number of our best 'players' were absent from your place. Just think Keith, if you had lost, you would now be able to enjoy the pleasure of watching all your best horses race on grass. Was it really worth it? Best Regards - Bernard Downes P.S. Congratulation to Alabama last night. Sorry for the late posting, but I thought they were easily the sports bet of the year
Keith...I know what you mean about Derby Fever...I guess if Shivmangal thinks that Shkspeare Shaliyah is his best hope for the Derby and wants to give him a shot on dirt..it is his horse...and he knows them better than I...I know horses go t to d all the time..but this horse in particular just seemed such an odd fit.. Belated shout out to Hurricane Lake winning the 7th Sunday at SA...I bet him his first race at Ellis in 2010 in a turf sprint just because I'm such a fan of his sire Friends Lake...he far outran his odds finishing 3rd...I've been following him and betting him since....sorry I couldn't get to the track Sunday...He's nothing special...but he is one of those horses who runs his eyeballs out every race. Farewell to Artax...one of my first lessons in pedigree...taking in the sport when I was a novice, years ago with my father in law who put a big wager on a long priced sprinter...I asked "what gives?" "sired by Artax,just watch." Horse won going away...
New Formblog Record: #9 El Pocho will be the 1st horse ever entered in back-to-back HandiGamblings!
In August I went back to Oregon for my son’s wedding, and the first night they had a barbeque with all of the boys I had raised, all 8 (actually now 9). After dinner they were outside sitting around the table laughing like drunken hyenas. Jesus, 16 years later and they still are out of control. They were sitting there reading from a book and they would all roar with laughter and say “that’s Steve”. They were reading from the book “Sh*t My Father Says”. Between every passage were their own tales of “Sh*t Steve Says”. Someone kept notes and today I got the official “Sh*t Steve Says” book of wisdom. Here are a couple of Steve delivered pearls of wisdom: The cool part about my Dad is you never have to worry about what he means. He doesn’t care who it is, where it is or when it is, he will let you know exactly what the problem is. My Mom asked my Dad to talk to us about missing the toilet, we were about 8 or 9 and he said “fine I’ll talk to them”. He yelled out the back door, “Hey Rocket Man, get your stronach in here, and bring the other Mighty Morphin Power Ranger with you. Who’s been peeing on the damned floor?” My brother and I looked at each other and then him and said “I don’t know”. He shook his head and said “look, you’re four foot tall, have a stronach the size of a vienna sausage and are aiming at a two foot hole, what the hell is the problem?” My Dad used to tell us that having kids was like being married – in sickness and in health, for richer or poorer – but there was one change for kids, it finished “til 18 do us part”. It became clear why he had said that for the last ten years one night. My brother’s room was right under my parents and he had his girlfriend over playing Romper Room at 2:00 in the morning. The problem was she wasn’t exactly shy about verbalizing her passion, she was a screamer. I knew it was just a matter of time before Dr. Phil voiced his displeasure. Within five minutes I hear “Mother of God, what the hell is going on down there?” I hear my Mom’s muffled voice and then him say “What?”. He starts pounding on the floor with his shoe and screams “get her off, give it up, or take her to Waffle House, I don’t care which, but I gotta go to work in three hours”. We got an apartment the next week. Arguing with my Dad was not a real profitable move, because he can argue a zebra out of his stripes or give you “the look”. You aren’t going to win. My friends and I wanted to camp out in the backyard and so I asked my Dad if we could. He didn’t even look up from the newspaper, he just said “no”. I decided I deserved more of an answer than just no, so I told him that wasn’t fair and I wanted an explanation. He lowered the paper, looked at me and said “because I am King F’ing Kong, I’m the biggest, baddest monkey in the jungle. Does that work for you Banana Boy?” Last summer I had the biggest shock of my life when my oldest kept badgering me about going to the basketball game after I said no. He told me it wasn’t fair and he deserved an explanation. It was like watching someone else as I said “because I am King F’ing Kong…” It is probably a good thing I have two boys.
FORMBLOG CONVENTION NEWS: Sorry, the Director of Sales at the Aventura Hampton Inn has been dragging her stilettos on sending me the special internet link so we can reserve our rooms. I should have that link either today or tomorrow. As soon as I receive it, I'll email it to everyone who has contacted me, plus the link will be available on the IMT website. If you plan to attend the Second Annual FormBlog Convention March 9 - 11, 2012 and haven't informed me yet, please send a short email to: email@example.com to let me know. For those flying into Florida, you will have the option to reserve a room from Thursday, March 8 - March 11, with check out on Monday, March 12, so you can have a full Friday - Sunday at the track. Also, SR Vegas (who isn't even attending) will collect and send us some little raffle gifts. If anyone else can pick up a few free track give-aways and either bring them to the convention or send them to me (I'll pay your mailing costs) please let me know. Maybe our Fearless Leader can steal a couple of DRF coffee mugs from his co-workers desks and bring them along, LOL. If anybody with really good organizational skills who will be attending (looking at TBTA) wants to help out with stuff, please let me know. ***** Annie, I haven't had a chance to talk to my contact at the McGaughey barn yet, but once I can chase him down and hold him still long enough, I'll ask what's going on with your Forward March. ***** FYI, To Honor & Serve will be headed back to Payon this week. Looking forward to seeing him again. ***** I'll be heading to GP one day on the weekend of Jan. 21 - 22 or Jan. 28-29, so if anyone (BobC, Tinky) wants to meet up, please let me know. I expect I'll arrive for the morning works and spend the day at the track. Laura
Uncle Steve, ...“get her off, give it up, or take her to Waffle House..." LOL!!!! Who won? My money is on Waffle House! I have a Watch List filly running tomorrow who might go off at long odds (deservedly, if you look at her PPs), but I like her if the race remains on the turf. FG4 (n1x *8fT F&M 4up): #7 Proenza (ML:12/1) -> finally broke her maiden in her 9th try last out, but may finally be getting everything together. Beat a next-out msw winner. May need blinkers (see her last race). Very nice turf pedigree and a RFer to boot. Nice 4f work a week ago. According to Formulator, Hubley 7/24 (ROI $4.03) with last-out maiden winners. (WP#7)