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Let's take a look at some of today's graded stakes races:
Harold C. Ramser Sr:
Solar Miss was so impressive winning her recent N1X optional claiming condition. She trailed the field all the way to the final turn, swung eight wide at the quarter-pole, and then steamrolled over the top of every horse in the race. Trainer Kathy Walsh is normally very conservative, but she hikes Solar Miss right into this graded race. The lack of pace (other than Dawn Before Dawn) is concerning, but Solar Miss deserves a chance to shine at this level at a nice price. Sweeter Still won the China Doll around two turns over this course earlier in the year, but she doesn't show a published workout in over a month, and will probably be one of the betting favorites. She may work out a nice trip from the rail, and is logical enough. Dawn Before Dawn is probably the horse to beat as she may shake loose in the first quarter-mile. She went gate-to-wire after stealing away to a lone lead over Del Mar's pollack last time out, and should be controlling things from the start again under Garrett Gomez. Tasha's Miracle hasn't won in over a year, and hasn't won past 6 1/2 furlongs, but she's consistent, and will be bet off her good company lines. She has the tactical speed to be close to the pace, and should get the jump on the top pick:
Selections: Solar Miss, Sweeter Still, Dawn Before Dawn
Hate to go with the chalk in such a big field, but I'm So Lucky looked pretty good in the King's Bishop. He was bumped entering the turn while four wide and in between horses, then was bumped from both sides when set down for the drive turning for home. He dug in gamely to finish third, and has the right running style in a Perry ville full of early speed. I'm So Lucky won his maiden by seven lengths over this surface during the spring meet, and may simply be the sharpest horse right now. The inside post is worrisome, but with all the speed to his outside, Robby Albarado may be able to maneuver I'm So Lucky off the inside earlier than usual. Eaton's Gift may be the speed of the speed for Team Zayat, but his career has been stalled by several layoff lines, and his last race at Saratoga wasn't very promising. Still, he's plenty fast from the gate, and is proven over this surface. Ready's Image returns to the scene of his debut win from last spring, and trainer Todd Pletcher is probably hoping the switch to pollack will resurrect his sagging colt. Ready's Image hasn't done much in his last two races, but he has the tactical speed to sit just off the pace, and may be a better price than usual thanks to his most recent baddies. Fidelio pressed the pace over a speed-favoring track to earn a 101 Beyer two back, then lost all chance in the Grade 2 Amsterdam due to a poor start. He's probably not as good as the 101, and is certainly not as bad as the 55 earned in the Amsterdam, but he hasn't been out since late July, and should take his share of the mutuel pool. Hatta Fort raced evenly against a sharp runner at Turfway, but may be a bit more effective on the weeds. He should be charging hard late.
Selection: I'm So Lucky
Queen Elizabeth II Cup:
I'm guessing that this was the intended spot for Ariege all along after she underwent surgery following her win in the Beaumont during the spring meet. Bobby Frankel has brought her back slowly. First, she took a listed stake at Saratoga, then she finished a tiring third in the Grade 1 Garden City. This is her third start back, and she should work out a nice pace-tracking, ground-saving trip under Alan Garcia. She can turn the tables on Backseat Rhythm, a hard-knocking filly that dances every dance, has a versatile running style, and must always be respected. She ran down Ariege and company in the Garden City, and continues to work quickly. I do wonder whether all of her racing this year (seven starts) without a layoff line will eventually take its toll. Sefroua adds Lasix after chasing older runners in her North American debut. She was no match for the consistent Criminologist in the Noble Damsel at Belmont, but was running on late for a piece. She'll be a good price here, and returns to face three-year-olds with a race under her belt. Rosa Grace only finished three lengths behind Backseat Rhythm in the Lake Placid at Saratoga, then sat out the Garden City while Backseat Rhythm had to work hard in that race. Rosa Grace also adds Lasix, and Christophe Clement is a guru with turf horses. Storm Mesa may attempt to cut the fractions after making a midmove in the Del Mar Oaks. She went gate-to wire to win the Iowa Oaks three back on the dirt. Closeout has a huge late kick, and she didn't have an easy trip when second to Ariege in that listed stake at Saratoga. Expect her to be chugging hard in the stretch. Magical Fantasy pulled off the 42-1 shocker in the Del Mar Oaks, and has been given time to recover from that effort. My Princess Jess gets a bit rank in the early portion of her races. If she settles down and saves something for the finish, she can be a threat from just off the pace.
Selections: Ariege, Sefroua, Rosa Grace
Criminologist looms a deserving favorite based on her overall record, and she should get more pace than was on display when she ran down loose-on-the-lead Waquoit's Love in the Noble Damsel. Sill, Criminologist had to work very hard that day, and it will be interesting to see if that race took anything out of her. I'm flying blind with Criticism, but will take her as the mild upsetter. I usually get a chance to see these Euros race, either on youtube, or on various other websites, but I couldn't find Criticism's last two races anywhere. She may want a bit more distance, and is coming off a long layoff, but there is a lot of speed in here, and she should be running on in the stretch. Waquoit's Love probably won't receive the same easy lead she was given in the Noble Damsel, but the big gray is more than capable from just off the pace, and she has been in very good form of late. Marie Rossa has a tendency to pull hard in the early going, and that may have sapped her stretch kick in the Revidere at Monmouth. Oh Deanne O should be part of the pace along with the speedy Sunshine for Life.
Selections: Criticism, Waquoit's Love, Criminologist
More importantly, who do you like this weekend? I want to know.
Feeling a bit under the weather today so will keep this short. Will return either Sunday or Monday with more.
My first crack at handigambling 108: $1.00 Tri-box - 2-7-10-11 = $24.00, 50 cent Super box - 1-2-7-10-11 = $60.00, & $8.00 W/P on #7
Even though I wasn't a Big Brown fan, I can empathize with his followers. I felt the same way when I found out one of my all time favorites, Afleet Alex, was headed to the breeding shed. I felt cheated, but at the same time happy that he was able to go there. I was and still am sure that if he had completed his three year old campaign, he was the Classic champion and the horse of the year.
JohnnyZ, Cayman01, As I was reading some posts that thought of lone speed is now issue here in the BC Classic. We will probably see some changes in thoughts for the race. So, we will soon see which way connections go on the upcoming day. Truly IMO I can't see WellArmed and CJohn running in the same race, unless one sets it up for the other.
Calvin, Thanks for your 9:00 PM post with Haskins thoughts. I happen to hear Haskin's interview on Byk's show today, his intial thought abought BB's injury was, "I'm sick". Well I felt the same way. Like him or not it is just incomprehensible to me that anybody would be in the least bit happy that Big Brown's career is done. Those that are should find another sport to bash. I'll be the first to admit I beat on his connections in months past. Well I apoligize and, will state I was wrong. Ivarone stated today that "he was not only pulling for Curlin but would wear a Curlin cap if they would give him one." source: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/47528/iavarone-reflects-on-big-browns-injury Speaking of Curlin, I don't know how many of you saw his workout today but was lights out IMO. His presence was something to behold. Came on the track with his neck bowed, coat was shining like a diamond in the Southern California sun. Looked to me the fittest I have ever seen him, and I could just see an attitude with his work, that I'm the best! He worked in company with Hawaii Calls and the 1/2 was in 47.09, 5F in 59.11, and track timers caught his 6F gallup out in 112.14. Those times came very well in hand. Appears to me to be the BC Classic winner as I think he loves the track. You don't have to take my word for it though here is a video of the work. Pay attention as to how he handles the turn and starts accelerating while still being much in hand: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pu-9Fw5FDd8
Tinky: Do you know if the offset knee's is a trait passed on by Street Cry? I've noticed alot of his offsring that have off knees.
Annie, I know exactly what you mean. I'm sorry for the loss of your mom. I would be lost without mine. My mom is so funny, in that she doesn't even really follow horseracing, except for the Breeder's Cup. She gets so excited every year because I arrange the transportation---she from Texas, me from NJ. I get the car, the tickets, the hotel, etc. Then I pick one nice restaurant for her birthday dinner and we go out and she has her one (!!!!) margarita. We buy a couple of racing forms and then we hang out in the hotel and handicap for hours.....She has her picks written on a really small piece of paper that she folds up in her purse. Then.....she proceeds to bet $2 to show, place if she's daring, on the favorite. It is hysterical! However,I have talked her into changing an old tradition of ours. We used to put $2 to win on one of the longest shots in each race, now we split the cost of a $2 WPS. WOW are we bold. Yes, sometimes it pays, Arcanques, Spain, etc... I hope we can have a blast at CD in two years, as I have so many fond memories! One year I made friends with a gal on the plane on the way down to BC at CD. I taught her how to read the Form and she was grateful as she had never been to the races before. It seems she was going as the guest of Tom Meeker,former head of CD. The morning of the BC, I received a call on my cell. There were two extra tickets in the Meeker box as well as privileges in the private Turf Club, directly above the walking ring. Of course I sold ours and took those. It was unreal. All the big shots were in the club. But the best part was Mary Lou Whitney who had just married her much younger husband. She was glowing with love and weighed down by a 15 carat ring. She let everyone of us who wanted to, try it on. She was an absolute riot! The pics my mom took are awesome, if blurry....the champagne was free.....
Annie Hooters..he-he-he...Ha-Ha-Ha, of course WE are talking in code... SR Vegas
Get all the Big Brown talk in now. In two or three months you will hear his name here and there. In a year you will hear Big Brown's name only sporadically. After that, you will hear Big Brown's name only on a blue moon. Curlin will be talked about and compared to for decades.
Vicstu: Zito has said he is going to rest Commentator as he had a hard time after the last race and Zito couldn't get him ready for the Classic even if he wanted to. He will NOT run for the rest of the year. Zito wants him to win another Whitney (why?). As for speed in the Classic I think you might see Well Armed back in the picture with the defections of Big Brown and Mast Track. He can control the pace, so why run for $1 million when you can run for $5 million? As for Curlin's future , Jackson has said he wants to do what nobody else has. I have a plan for Mr. Jackson. Win the Classic, then go to Japan and win the Dirt Cup ,and finish up his career with another win in Dubai. A win in all three should make Curlin the all-time $ winner across the globe, not just North America. And a winning campaign like this would solidify his place amongst the all time best in the game. We can question whether he belongs there now, but if he won on three separate continents against the best in the world in the course of the same year........ well, that would be something no horse has done.
Tbone, I will be on the Breeders Cup both days, plus probably Sunday, so looking forward to meet you and any other Formbloggers that make it to sunny California. Dan, are you coming for the Big Weekend?