07/24/2013 11:51AM

Saratoga Day 5: July 24, 2013

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12:50 pm: Welcome to Week 2, which begins with a 10-race card featuring the Grade 2 Lake George and a two-day $245, 278 pick-6 carryover.

Heavy rains here Monday night have left the turf course "good" and prompted taking today's tweo scheduled turf sprints (races 7 & 10) off the grass. Both will still be contested at 5.5 furlongs but on the main track. the day's three other grass races will still be run on turf.

I'll be playing the carryover and posting my tickets before the sequence begins. In the meantime here are my notes on the card. For new or forgetful readers, the "Top" column lists each horse's top Beyer Speed Figure on a surface and distance I deem relevant to today's assignment.

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2:15 pm: After Much Stronger ($4.40) trounced fellow $35k claimers i the opener, Montana Native took the $100k Broom dance, the secondary stakes on today's card, for 3-year-old fillies who had not a stakes. Montana Native. a Yes It's True filly trained by Ken McPeek, took over after 6f in 1:12.41 and widened to win by 3 1/2 lengths over flash Forward in 1:51.76 for 9f. Profetiza, narrowly favored over the winner ($55,168 vs.$54,255), did not show her usual speed, raced wide throughout, and finished fifth.

In the 3rd, even-money Town Hall looked to have the race won after spurting away to a four-length lead into the stretch turn, but she blew the turn and fell back to fourth. She rerallied after straightening out and racing close to the grandstand rail, but could only get up for second to Nevada.

2:45 pm: Pick-6 begins in 23 minutes. Here's my play:

 

3:15 pm: Tough beat if you liked 4-1 Inaflash in the 5th, first leg of pick-6, dramatic victory if you preferred 9-2 Mama Zee. Inaflash looked home free with 3 1/2-length lead at furlong pole with closest pursuers sputtering, but Mama Zee rallied from far back to nail the tiring leader. Work N Flirt, briefly third early, was finished turning for home and faded badly as the 4-5 favorite.

Nice anecdote from commenter Hialeah in the coments below. I had to rescue it from the trash: DRF's blogging software had robotically blocked it because of an "objectionable" word -- the mention of Beaver Falls, PA. No fooling.

3:50 pm: Didn't have to wait for the photo in the 6th to know I was out of the pick-6, as it was a blanket finish among three I didn't have -- Seal Cove($23.20), 9-1 Turallure and 12-1 Hoofit. Vitoria Olympia and Sleepless Knight dueled each other into defeat and favored Mr. Commons flattened out badly after making a middle move at the leaders. Race was a prep for the G2 Fourstardave Handicap Aug. 10.

5:30 pm: Kitten's Dumplings ($5.00) stamped herself the top 3-year-old turf filly with a strong rally from far back to win the featured Grade 2 Lake George over Watsdachances and Tapicat. Midnight Watch sprinted out to a big early lead through fractions of 23.55, 46.45 and 1:10.95 (these were the "corrected" fractions after a Teletimer error erroneously posted 21.22, 44.37 and 1:08.82.) Kitten's Dumplings, coming off dominant victories in the Edgewood and Regret at Churchill, rallied on the outside and mowed down the field as Midnight Watch faded to fourth.

Kitten's Dumplings, a Ramsey homebred trained by Mike Maker, finished the mile and a sixteenth in 1:39.96. The Lake George leads to the G2 Lake Placid here August 18 at a mile and a furlong.

Here are the willpays into the finale. All 12 are covered in the pick-6, at tasty payouts ranging from $48k to just over $1 million:

 

6:00 pm: Where's Danny made it 2-for-2 today for horses making their dirt debuts in off-the-turf sprints by running down dueling front-runners Cowboy Prince and Show Some Lovin to win the finale and complete a $563 pick-4 and $60,902 pick-6.

Racing resumes at 1 p.m. Thursday with a 10 race card featuring a pair of ungraded $100k stakes: the Lottsa Talc for NY-bred fillies at 7f (race 4) and the Quick Call for 3-year-old turf sprinters (race 8.)

Jade Petersen More than 1 year ago
Steve, love your blog, appreciate the insight but also the food reviews like the lobster roll from Putnam Market. If you don't mind, as a long time patron of dry , racing and a software designer by trade, I'd like to strongly suggest that you take down/obliterate the pop up advertisement that comes up when we access drf.com. It is an annoyance, especially when viewing the website on a phone. i may be wrong but i doubt that the ad will draw people to convert into paying subscribers. best regards
Greg Kilka More than 1 year ago
AGREE
BornFunny More than 1 year ago
Steve respectfully I couldn't agree more....I know you are thoughtful in your continued evolution of the world authority for horse racing so please take this into consideration as you continue to build your fantastic product. As always thank you for continued perspective during your time at the spa.
Philip Conforti More than 1 year ago
absolutely ! especially on the phone!
Tom Hofner More than 1 year ago
Funny game. My buddy and I hit 4 B's and 2 A's.....caveman at 2880 is looking pretty good right now. Oh well.
Don Reed More than 1 year ago
One aspect of today's Pick Six has got to be unique: Three of the six winners went off at 9/2, probably the worst odds possible. Faves win; longshots win; the wishy-washy odds-horses are usually just that, flaccid to the core, the on-stage spear carriers. Of anyone has software that can ID horses winning P6s by odds, and if it isn't too much trouble, please see if this holds up. 3/6 winning at 9/2 odds is a "single" in my book.
Rob Wu More than 1 year ago
In hindsight, how could one have picked Corinthianna to win Race 7?
ElRatonColorao More than 1 year ago
Wish I would've known speed was NO GOOD today before I singled the 1 as an "A" in the 8th. Brutal to have Seal Cove as an "A" and not Moment in Dixie. #ToughGame
AR_Roberts More than 1 year ago
I hear you ElRantonColorao. I had Seal Cove as well, but left Corinthianna off my tickets. I'm left just hoping to cash a conso. Hope someone around here is alive to hit the PK6.
Matthew Ellis More than 1 year ago
A live $72 is better than a Dead $1572 ticket trust me
Will LaTulippe More than 1 year ago
I'm out too. Would have never included that favorite in the 4th leg.
Tim More than 1 year ago
I smell a triple carryover....
Irma Garcia More than 1 year ago
Hi Steve, Good Luck Today. I see you lost your C's in P-6. Do you still play the late P-4 since you have 6 C's in last leg? I'm assuming you feel there is reasonable chance that your A's and B's are not enough coverage. BTW, I have almost the same choices in late P-4, with exception of #8 in race 7- I'm playing against, fell has had enough chances. Lastly, #1 in race 9 is an A for me, believe the cut in ground will wake this one up and finally show natural improvement with age. You mentioned this in your analysis. On another subject, what is your take on Andy Beyers' ( Bad Beat piece)?- I feel that according to the rules in place, you can not say worst beat of all time. I believe you have promoted an option of changing ticket to runner of your choice instead of automatic placing scratch to favorite. I agree, but what if you purchase your ticket at AP in AM and don't have a clue that your selection was scratched/ would you automatically then be moved to favorite, or would you just recive receive a refund of your wager? Have a great meet. [No hard and fast rules on playing pick-4, but since I was dead after two legs of pick-6, there was no "saver" or hedge situation today. I think the bad-beat story counts as a potential worst of all time because, even though it all played out by the rules, I don't know that a willpay has ever promised a guy he would get $480k and then he actually get $11k. -SC]
Roy Wilkinson More than 1 year ago
Talking about bad Pick -6 beats. How about Del Mar this past Sunday with Cosmic Heat getting taken down on a questionable objection? I think the will pay was around $200,000 and instead went into carryover pool. Maldonado seemed to stick his horse into a bad path and then stands up and wins objection. This after the dubious non-DQ last Friday where a horse took out two other horses three steps out of the gate and finished second.
Don Reed More than 1 year ago
"We told you to hang on to the hand rail. We told you not to spit over the side." And thus the money disappears into the net day's Pick Six.
Stefan More than 1 year ago
Steve, Did you use an all As and Bs ticket and 5As, 1C backups or a standard breakdown as per your book? [Somewhere in between -- some of the B's were cheap to combine, some got expensive when they backed up singles. But it's all a moot point after a B-C-C opening. -SC]
Will LaTulippe More than 1 year ago
I thought I was toast after singling that 4 in the first leg...but my $72 "all the cool kids are doing it" caveman stab remains alive thanks to that rally. What a game.