07/29/2013 11:29AM

Saratoga Day 10: July 29, 2013

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12:30 pm: Beautiful sunny day, fast and firm for Day 10, which features the G2 Honorable Miss Stakes and a two-day $330,088 pick-6 carryover.

It struck me as a relatively manageable sequence, with no 2-year-old races full of firsters or completely inscrutable races. I'll be playing. Here are my horse-by-horse notes, and I'll be back to post my play around 2:30 pm.

 

 

1:45 pm: Chalky start to the day as Madris ($4.20) and Wedding Toast ($5.30) combined for an $11.20 early double. Wedding Toast, a Darley homebred by Street Sense, may have a stakes future: She was making only her second career start and stretching out from a debut 2nd at 6.5f to 9f. While she got a soft lead through 6f in 1:13.14, she ran strongly thereafter, finishing with 3f in 36.05 for a final time of 1:49.19.

2:45 pm: Okay, here's the play. More C's than usual because I feel pretty good about the A's, and thought maybe there was a likelier-than-usual possibility of getting home 5 A's and one goofy horse.

And hey, I can't be totally dead after the first leg.

 

3:20 pm: Ugh. Hyman Roth at 7-2 was not the kind of goofy C I was hoping for. Didn't like him at all, down to an all-A 2x2x1x2x2. Feels like Hyman was bigger than 7-2 in multirace bets -- early pick-4 paid $2,538, more than triple the parlay.

4:25 pm: Huge dq in the 7th, probably knocking a bunch of people out of the pick-6, as 6-5 Ultimate Empire finished first but was taken down for bothering runner-up Jade Run ($17.00). It's not only the difference between a 6-5 fave and a 7-1 fifth choice, but also that Ultimate Empire was one of the few potential "singles" on the card. In my opinion, it was a legit dq but for those who got knocked out, it's a tough way to lose. Too early to be thinking triple-carry, but one really wacky horse in the last three legs could do it.

5:30 pm: After triumphs by 4-5 fave Dance to Bristol in the G2 Honorable Miss, and 8-5 fave Revenue in the 9th, 6 of the 11 in the finale are covered, at payoffs ranging from $53k to $505k. If one of the five uncovered horses wins, it's a $1 million carryover to Wednesday.

6:15 pm: Favored Typhoon Teri ($6.70) lasted over uncovered 26-1 You Take the Cake to complete the $53,212 pick-6 to 19 winners instead of a $1 million carry to Wednesday.

I'm driving back to Hempstead tomorrow, will watchand blog  the races from there Wednesday and Thursday, and be back with Mrs. Blog and the greyhounds in tow Friday.

Bernie Ortt More than 1 year ago
Steve, I just wanted to get your take on this from a NYRA perspective... Today's Late P4 will pay was listed on both Xpressbet & TwinSpires at $197.50 on a .50 cent ticket. If this is true why did it only pay $190??? Not sure if anyone else picked up on that but I just thought that was interesting? ????
Ryan Stanzel More than 1 year ago
Assuming there were some early tickets with the horse that was scratched. Not a late scratch, but people can still put bets in before they announce scratches.
Kenny More than 1 year ago
I knew I was in trouble when Jade Run was 6-1 in the betting.....angles all over for the horse but just looked to slow....using these kind has been a waste of money first 9 days of meet for me.....
kevin r More than 1 year ago
The more I look at Race 7 the more I disagree with the DQ of #3. Obviously the #3 was all over the track but I don't see that there was any impeding. Just once I"d like to be on the other side of a DQ. Had the rest of the Pick 4 (who didn't) but it would have been better to break even than outright lose.
rvraynmary More than 1 year ago
Great payoffs for a pick6 with three winners at 2-1 or less, one at 7/2 and two at about 8-1. That's why it is smart to play carryovers. Another chance Wednesday at DelMar. stuckinarizona
Conrad More than 1 year ago
Disanto bomber coming up in the finale??
Conrad More than 1 year ago
Nope
jfcsoup More than 1 year ago
Come on 2
kevin r More than 1 year ago
I hate not even making it thru the first leg of a pick 4. Legit or not the dq hurts.
John Belmont More than 1 year ago
Steve, DQ knocked me out of the p6. Can't really argue the DQ as the 3 was all over the track like a drunken sailor and carried the other horse out. That will get you dq'd almost every time. When looking at the head on it is a no brainer. Anonymous One- FYI ....horses do not have to touch for there to be a DQ.
david More than 1 year ago
why punish the bettors when a horse is dq'd. the jockey and horse should be punished but not the bettors...time to change the rules
Joey W More than 1 year ago
David, the jockey's usually get fined and suspended for 3 or more days. If the stewards believe the jock was riding careless. Such as horse getting out yet a jock still is hitting him/her left handed. And sometimes the horse does get some sort of punishment. Such as a horse that ducks in or out at the start. The stewards will mandate the the trainer/owner has to have their horse schooled at the gate. Which bettors do you punish. If you leave the horse up. The 2nd place or horse that was interfered with, those bettors get the shaft. It's an unfortunate thing.
Rick Harrington More than 1 year ago
That's a fair argument, but on the same token, is it really fair for the backers of the horse interfered with to lose because the jockey who caused the infraction decided to push and shove to prevent their horse from losing? Especially in a situation where the victim was clearly going to pass and win if not for the interference? To DQ or not to DQ is a double-edged sword. Some days you're going to be the one who loses because of one. Some days you're going to benefit. In all hopes it should even out in the long run.
Matthew Ellis More than 1 year ago
2x2x2 4 and 6 11 and 12 6 and 9