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Runflatout, Top Winning Beyers, Bind, Crimson China
Let's get down to business.
One of our commenters recently wondered if RUNFLATOUT's clocking of 1:07.70 was the fastest six-furlong debut time in history. As far as I can tell (and our IT crew, particularly SQL guru Duane Burke, did their research), Runflatout's time eclipsed Rail Trip's 1:07.94 for his debut win over the Hollywood cushion track on November 7, 2008.
Here are the top 25 winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's races (2/14/11 - 2/20/11):
1. BIND - 105 - Md Sp Wt 41k - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
2. AWESOME MARIA - 102 - Sabin Stakes (Grade 3) - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
2. THE FACTOR - 102 - San Vicente Stakes (Grade 2) - 7 Furlongs - Santa Anita
4. HARISSA - 101 - Barbara Fritchie Handicap (Grade 2) - 7 Furlongs - Laurel
5. CHAMP PEGASUS - 99 - San Luis Obispo Stakes (Grade 2) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - Santa Anita
5. DEMARCATION - 99 - Mineshaft Handicap (Grade 3) - 1 1/16 Miles - Fair Grounds
6. ABSINTHE MINDED - 98 - Bayakoa Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Oaklawn
6. BULLDOGGER - 98 - Alw 60062N2X - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
6. EIGHTTOFASTTOCATCH - 98 - OC 32k/N3X - 1 Mile - Laurel
6. ICABAD CRANE - 98 - G'Day Mate Stakes - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Inner Track) - Aqueduct
6. SMILING TIGER - 98 - San Carlos Handicap (Grade 2) - 7 Furlongs - Santa Anita
12. ESCORT - 97 - Md Sp Wt 38k - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Gulfstream
12. KINSALE KING - 97 - Alw 41340NC - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - Golden Gate
12. PRINCE WILL I AM - 97 - Mac Diarmida Stakes (Grade 2) - 1 3/8 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
12. TIDAL POOL - 97 - OC 50k/N3X-N - 1 Mile - Oaklawn
16. HIGHWAY BANDIT - 95 - OC 50k/N2X-N - 1 1/16 Miles (Tapeta) - Golden Gate
16. IT'S TRICKY - 95 - Busher Stakes - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Inner Track) - Aqueduct
18. BRIDGETOWN - 94 - Turf Dash Stakes - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - Tampa Bay
18. EXPANSION - 94 - Fair Grounds Handicap (Grade 3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Fair Grounds
18. MUCHO MACHO MAN - 94 - Risen Star Stakes (Grade 3) - 1 1/16 Miles - Fair Grounds
18. WIREDFORTWOTWENTY - 94 - Phoenix Gold Cup Handicap - 6 Furlongs - Turf Paradise
22. COO CACHOO - 93 - OC 40k/N1X - 1 Mile - Santa Anita
23. DUE DATE - 92 - Colonel Power Stakes - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Fair Grounds
23. SALTY WAVE - 92 - Spring Fever Stakes - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Oaklawn
23. STERLING OUTLOOK - 93 - Alw 59424N1X - 1 Mile - Santa Anita
Why have I not read any articles about Bind's debut this past weekend? The race he ran was right up there with Uncle Mo's as one of the most impressive debuts I've ever seen and the 105 Beyer confirms that it came up just as fast as it looked. Not to mention, unlike The Factor and some of these other fast horses who have impressed breaking their maidens recently, he's bred top and bottom to go two turns and seemingly doesn't mind rating behind a couple horses early.
I certainly hope the connections don't rush him into making the Triple Crown races. They don't strike me as the type to do that, but this horse is obviously very talented.
*If Bind's 105 BSF ends up as the fastest figure for the week, can you post his dad's lifetime Past Performances also? Eerily similar to his sire's debut.
*BIND, a $180,000 RNA as a yearling, won his career debut by 9 1/4 lengths under Rosie Napravnik at the Fair Grounds on Saturday afternoon. A Pulpit three-year-old colt out of Check (by Unbridled), Bind is trained by Al Stall Jr.
The unraced dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner War Thief (1 3/16 miles on turf), stakes-winner Stop Watch (1 1/16 miles on dirt), Grade 3 winner Prime Meridian (1 1/8 miles on turf), Grade 3 winner Watch (1 1/8 miles on turf), stakes-winner Remind (1 mile on turf), and stakes-placed Clock (1 mile on turf). The third and fourth dam were both stakes-winners.
We'll see where Bind surfaces next (perhaps Fair Grounds or Keeneland), but the conservative Stall may decide to take his time with the promising colt instead of pushing him hard to make the Kentucky Derby.
*Another interesting three-year-old is ESCORT, a First Samurai out of Guide, by Pulpit. Like Bind, Escort is a Claiborne Farm homebred, but Escort is trained by Todd Pletcher. He won his third lifetime start on Saturday afternoon at Gulfstream Park with a 97 Beyer Speed Figure after pressing the pace throughout.
The sprint-winning dam is a half-sister to three-time Grade 3 winner Trip (big wins between 7 furlongs and 1 1/16 miles on dirt), multiple stakes-winning sprinter Joke, and is a full sister to multiple stakes-winner Laity (both stakes wins at 1 1/16 miles, one on polytrack). The second dam, Tour, was a stakes-winning sprinter with earnings of almost $255,000. The third dam, Fun Flight, was a stakes-winning sprinter while the fourth dam was also a stakes-winner.
Bind and Pulpit's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
*Dan can I get pp's 4 whiskey trip & king glorious
& brocco & itsallgreektome? Thanks!!
*Do u know if that's the same Miguel
Espindola @ parx that rode at GGF & Bay Meadows?
Miguel Espindola returned from a long absence to ride in Philadelphia and New Jersey in 2010. According to the DRF database, he did ride in Northern California in the early 1990's.
The past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Dan and Mike A. -
There is a 1st time starter (3yo) on the turf, 1st time lasix at GP 2/23 R#4 p# 6 Nabisco Cat. What type of things do you use in evaluating a firster on turf, and also if you have any specific opinions on this horse.
I'd start by seeing if any of the experienced turf runners have run to the par of the race. If so, then the newcomer may be up against it. If not, I'd then check the horse's pedigree. In this race, none of the horses have ever raced on the turf, rendering the par point moot. I'm not very big on this horse's grass pedigree. It's too early to determine how the Consolidators will do on turf, and I'm not a fan of Distinctive Pros on grass.
Lastly, I'll try to match up the workouts with other horses from the trainer's stable. Perhaps Nabisco Cat has been working with some experienced grass runners? I looked over the last three drills and didn't find anything interesting. I didn't handicap the race in detail, but I'm guessing I'd find someone I would like better (now watch him win for fun!)
If you have time, or if Laura is available, could you give me a run down on an unraced colt named Danehill Sunset and do you have any new news on Frankel ?
Thanks as always,
I was hoping you might be able to help me, apparently I wrote down the name wrong of a unraced 3 yo colt who worked out at Gulfstream on 2/5 . He worked a bullet 4f in 46.30 hg. I wrote down his name as Promising End but it must be wrong seeing as I can't find him in any data base and I have deleted that days workouts.
Thanks for your help,
Hope your weekend went well. I am interested by a horse named Crimson China what can you and/or Laura tell me about him? Which surface do you think he will do well on?
Crimson China was ultra-impressive winning an OCNW1x yesterday at GP, finishing in 1:46 4/5. Do you know what figures he received?
Many thanks...love your blog.
Danehill Sunset won one of seven races in England last year for trainer Barry Hills. Sold for 18,000 guineas at Tattersalls on October 25, the four-year-old colt was imported to the United States. He made his American debut on Sunday afternoon at Gulfstream Park, finishing sixth in an entry-level allowance at one mile on turf for new trainer Graham Motion.
Frankel's trainer, Henry Cecil, gives updates on the colt's condition under the "Current News" heading of his website:
The unraced three-year-old's name is Promising Ed.
Crimson China is a three-year-old colt by Giant's Causeway out of Parisian Affair, by Mr. Greeley. He was a $120,000 RNA as a Keeneland September Yearling, but was purchased by Team Valor International after winning a polytrack race at Kempton on November 25. Crimson China won an entry-level allowance race on grass on February 16 with a 77 Beyer Speed Figure and it's quite possible that he'll get a chance to prove he's a Kentucky Derby-type horse by running on dirt.
Be advised, however, that the immediate female family is mostly turf. The dam was a stakes-winner on grass and her half-brother, Elusive City, won the Group 1 Prix Morny on turf in France.
Dan could you please put the pp's for TEN DOWNING STREET & SPEEDY SUZANNE.
The past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Tell me true...do you handicap and/or wager on races from Dubai, and if so, how well/poorly do you do with these races?
Very rarely. I'll usually play on Dubai World Cup day, but not with much of a bankroll. To be honest, I'd say my results have been fair to okay. There haven't been any big scores, but I play the card mostly for enjoyment's sake.
Why can't DRF include the time horses come home in like they do on Harness Race charts ? It would be a huge plus especially in turf races . It wouldn't seem that hard to include.
I'm sure it's a space issue for the print edition. You can get come-home times from the charts in the Formulator Web charts.
Step 1: Once you're in the past performances, click GO, and then CHARTS.
Step 2: Pick a race date (I'll go with Gulfstream on February 19)
Step 3: Select Race (I'll go with #10, the Mac Diarmida)
Step 4: Click OPTIONS, and then INCREMENTAL PACE.
Step 5: You'll see that Prince Will I Am, the winner finished his last eighth in 11.18. By adding the final two fractions, you'll note that he went his final three-eighths of a mile in 34.08.
Hi Dan....Iam counting on a horse who i expect to mature before the derby..is Stay Thirsty. He is bred for 1 1/4 to win this years derby. i know 3yr olds a fickle this time of year aka "coma to the top" and
Tapizar. but with his pedigree(Bernerdini) i know he can get this distance. If he "fires" first time off
the bench..Look out!!!..Iam told from some connections that he may be PLetchers best horse by end of the year....ALSO..what are your impressions of Dialed in ????
It looks like Stay Thirsty will return to the races in the Gotham at Aqueduct on March 5. He currently has four workouts under his belt at Palm Meadows in Florida. To me, he's a fascinating case as his pedigree (Bernardini half-brother to long-winded Grade 3 winner Andromeda's Hero) tells us he should relish additional distance. But, in his starts, he has shown excellent early speed and his stamina has been suspect (lost ground from the stretch call to the wire in both of his tries against winners). I didn't love his race when he was fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile as he looked very tired in the final eighth, but he does have plenty of upside.
It's very easy to jump on the Dialed In bandwagon. His connections (Zito), pedigree (Mineshaft, second dam is Eliza), and race record (whipped next-out Risen Star winner Mucho Macho Man in the Holy Bull) scream "Derby horse." I'm not completely sold. He obviously has a good amount of ability, but I didn't like the way he was late to change leads in the Holy Bull, and I don't like that he doesn't seem to have any early speed. He could be the next star, or he could be the next Ice Box. Only time will tell.
Will there be a DRF Blue Boxers/Blue Thongs league in the Road to the Roses game this year? It is fun to compete against each other.
The Road to the Roses first scoring day is February 26, so be sure to have your stable created and entered in the DRF League no later than 11:59 AM on that day if you wish to participate in the fist scoring race. Otherwise, you can create your stable through April 30, but won't earn as many points. there will be a couple of supplemental drafts as well and I'll notify the board when that time period opens.
For those who wish to participate:
Go to: http://www.roadtotheroses.com/
Create your stable, THEN you can join the DRF league by entering this info when prompted:
League Name: DRF BOXERS AND THONGS
League Identifier: 1914857503
Activation Code: 962186939
You can enter up to three stables and RTTR is giving away weekly prizes as well as the major end-game prizes. EVERYONE (except those poor suckers in Quebec) is eligible. Rules are here:http://www.roadtotheroses.com/G=94/official_rules.
With pool 1 closed for the Derby Future Wager - do you have any details on what odds have been on pool 1 from the past? KYderby.com doesn't go into much detail and after reviewing what they offer, it seems improbable that their info is compiled from pool 1 bets only.
I know that all others has been favored in all past pools, but how many times has that bet won?
Here are the winning payouts from all Pool 1 Future Wagers since the proposition was first offered in 1999:
1999: Charismatic - $10.20 (Part of "All Others")
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus - $27.80
2001: Monarchos - $36.60
2002: War Emblem - $7.60 (Part of "All Others")
2003: Funny Cide - $188.00
2004: Smarty Jones - $5.60 (Part of "All Others")
2005: Giacomo - $52.00
2006: Barbaro - $40.20
2007: Street Sense - $22.80
2008: Big Brown - $8.60 (Part of "All Others")
2009: Mine That Bird - $5.80 (Part of "All Others")
2010: Super Saver - $43.20
Does anyone know if Pletcher is considering Pluck for the Derby?
Following the Breeders' Cup, Pluck was given to trainer Graham Motion, and will be sent to Europe for a tilt in either the French 2,000 Guineas or Irish 2,000 Guineas. He is expected to prep for one of those races in the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes at Keeneland on April 8. Pluck was not nominated to the Triple Crown.
Is the Timely Writer a graded stakes ?
No, it isn't. It's a $100,000 listed event basically to showcase Uncle Mo as he makes his three-year-old debut. Coincidentally, on March 12, the day of the Timely Writer, drf.com Handicapper Mike Beer and I will be at Gulfstream to do a Handicapping seminar. If any Formbloggers are in the area, stop on by. We'd love to chat with you.
dan. could you post the pps of Lure. I would settle friendly dispute with a buddy. He remembers lure as a front runner and i seem to remember him coming from way off the pace strictly turf. thank you
Lure's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
1) For the free PPs for the Risen Star, I saw a new set of features in the running lines. These were "BL12," "FLOW," and "BIAS." Did not see these carry over to the free PPs for the San Vicente. Is this going to be here to stay, or is this a trial thing?
2) Sometimes I'll see comments where someone will say that an outside post is "cozy" (helpful) or an impediment. How do you determine when that outside post is either?
1. I have no idea and will forward your request to customer service.
2. Some handicappers believe that the outside is a good place to be in sprints or one-turn routes (racing clear of traffic and kickback) while the outside could pose a problem in two-turn races, especially in ones with a short run to the turn (could be forced wide all the way).
$30 Exacta 4 with 6,7,9
$5 Trifecta 4 with 6 with 7,9
Good luck everyone
Congrats to Steel for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise. He chooses Race 8 at Gulfstream Park on Wednesday for this week's test.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POSTING
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. Please post your plays and analysis to the blog. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please. I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Best of luck to all.
Handigambling: $25 W/P #8 = $50 total $10 Exacta part wheel 8,9 WITH 8,9,12 = $40 total $.10 Super part wheel 8,9 WITH 8,9,12,10 WITH 8,9,12,10,1,2 WITH 8,9,12,10,1,2,3 = $9.60 total Grand total = $99.60
HG 222 $100 win #1 Classical Fashion Inside speed. Will try to go gate to wire.
HG Blue Angel almost always outruns her odds, so I can reconcile her 1 for 13 mark. The dismal performance followed by a layoff is a concern, but she needn't be at 100 percent to run past this field. I expect Cosset to hit the board here. Not a bold prediction, but I think she'll have more to offer getting back over firm turf and 3rd race of the form cycle. Kelly's Pic is the speed of the speed; an invaluable resource over the Gulfstream turf. Don't think she will be aided as much with the rail at 84 feet, though, and probably won't be able to hold this bunch off. Lady Jadana's last came back light, but it was a solid effort. After setting a leisurely pace, she ran down the frontrunning Broadway Ghost in the stretch with a nice kick. Catalano/Leparoux is a good duo to have in your corner. Golden Galleon looks bred for the turf and shows some encouraging works over the Palm Meadows lawn. Not sure the race sets up that well for her, but she's got ability, and Pletcher has been firing well with what appears to be his "B" horse. $25 Tri 11/2/4,8 $15 Tri 11/4,8/2 $10 Tri 11/2,3/2,3
Dan Great to hear your coming to S. Florida. Too bad you'll have to suffer the trip handcuffed to Mike Beer!!!! ( Just kidding!!!!) I will be looking for further details regarding the time and location of your seminar at Gulfstream once they are finalized. Lord willing, I look forward to meeting you both. I would also like to invite you, Mike and anyone else who may be traveling with you to dinner. Or if that is not possible, perhaps breakfast on Saturday the 12th, either at Gulfstream where they have a Saturday Buffet. (I have never tried it so I can't speak to it's quality.) Or directly across the street from Gulfstream. There is a Diner called the Flashback that makes wonderful breakfasts. bobc P.S. If you do have time for dinner on one of those evenings, rest assured we will not be going to the diner!!!!! (That's strickly a breakfast or lunch place). LOL By the way Dan, feel free to choose both breakfast and dinner. However if you do, you'll have to "Guarantee" me one winner. (Just a hint........I believe there is a pretty fair horse named "Uncle Mo" scheuled to run that day.!!!!!) You can also opt out of the 2nd meal after meeting me. My sense of humor has been known to cause some people to lose their appetite. LOL
i liike the 12 pletcher is always better 2nd time 12 &9 25 dollar box 20 dollar box 12 & 11 and a 5 dollar box 12 & 6 all exactas
HG222 Revised Since Tom D. has blown my bet out of the water,I'll do the following: .50 cent superfecta box 2,4,5,9,12 $5 Trifecta's 5,9,12 with 2,11 with 4
Mike, I fail to see how that quote is relevant, but the last time I checked, a $40 will-pay was a $40 will-pay, whether there are 5 horses running or 20. Now, if you were going to play such an exacta straight for $50, would you rather have the 5 horse field or the 20 horse field? I'll take the 5, thanks. Less chance of trouble or a gypsy getting in the way. I never said I love 5 and 6 horse fields, but I don't automatically disregard them either. I find value in those races much more often than 1 in 40. More like 1 in 5 or so. The above exacta example, by the way, would pay a grand. Taking a good swing (or "thinking big") has absolutely nothing to do with the size of the field. Neither do the odds. You see, 10-1 in 6 horse field pays the same $22 on the win end as the 10-1 in the 14 horse field. Value is value, period.
HG a very competitive race. a race loaded with animals that want to be on or near the lead. it will be a scramble into the first turn and whoever gets the best trip will be the winner. I think Miner"s Tune has beyers that are competitive with any horse in the race. She has a very sparse record of in the money races but is 5 years old and lightly raced. With a race over the track, she is my bet as a bomb. 100 win 6 Miner"s Tune
HG 222 #7 Storm Showers Seems to have a knack for getting into trouble at the break but still running well. Such a scenario would not be catastrophic here due to an anticipated quick pace. A clean break should really allow her to be primed to have her picture taken in the winner's circle. Garcia is really riding well and adds to a good finish. #2 Cosset Should also benefit from a fast pace. Last time she was in a race with a 46+ half mile she closed with a rush to get up for the victory. Similar scenario exist today. Mott/Desormeaux have brought in many winners over the years. This may be another that adds to their total. Wager: $100 ex: 7/ 2
SR Vegas, sry about that :) VQ