07/24/2013 12:42PM

Royal Delta, Spa Winning Posts

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ROYAL DELTA needed a win. 

After a fairly awful performance in the Dubai World Cup and a flat runner-up effort in the Fleur de Lis Handicap, a race she dominated in 2012, even Royal Delta's staunchest supporters had to wonder if she still held the same oomph that led her to consecutive Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic triumphs.

Question answered with authority.

Royal Delta made quick work of her four overmatched rivals in the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap last week, successfully defending her crown by 10 3/4 lengths with a 105 Beyer Speed Figure.  Racing without Lasix, Royal Delta immediately grabbed the front under Mike Smith and was never challenged.  She completed the 10 furlongs in 2:02.04 "in handy fashion".  Before we get too excited about her resurgence, handicappers must note that she didn't exactly defeat the creme de la creme of the division and she raced on an unpressured lead throughout.  It's likely that they'll make her run at some point in her next race so perhaps there is still some money to be made by playing against her.  Still, it's nice to see her perform at a high level at an age when most champion females are living the broodmare life.

*ALSVID isn't a household name, but he ran the race of his career in a solid optional claimer at Prairie Meadows.  Traveling six furlongs, Alsvid scored by 16 lengths with a 109 Beyer while under a motionless Ken Tohill.  Alsvid may attempt stronger company next time, but it's also possible he'll attempt to defend his titles in both the Vance Memorial and Remington Park Sprint Cup in Oklahoma.  Either way, he's an "under the radar" sprinter to watch.

*RENEESGOTZIP returned from knee surgery to overwhelm a very good group of allowance horses at Del Mar.  She's super quick, but failed to switch leads in the stretch.  Although vanquished, EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE gave a good effort in her first start following a very long layoff for Bob Baffert.

***

Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures (7/15/13 - 7/21/13):

1. ALSVID - 109 - OC 35k/C -N - 6 Furlongs - Prairie Meadows
2. RENEESGOTZIP - 105 - Alw 88310C - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Del Mar
2. ROYAL DELTA - 105 - Delaware Handicap (G1) - 1 1/4 Miles - Delaware
4. NIGHT MANEUVER - 104 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 7 Furlongs - Saratoga
4. PRINCESS OF SYLMAR - 104 - Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - Saratoga
6. SAGE VALLEY - 103 - James Marvin Stakes (G3) - 7 Furlongs - Saratoga
7. HERBIE D - 100 - Mt. Rainier Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles - Emerald
8. WIREDFORTWOTWENTY - 99 - Clm 40000(40-35) - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Del Mar
8. STRONG IMPACT - 99 - Fiddlers Patriot Stakes - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Saratoga
10. AMBERJACK - 98 - New York Derby - 1 1/16 Miles - Finger Lakes
10. MARRIEDTOTHEMUSIC - 98 - OC35k/SAL35k - 6 Furlongs - Saratoga
12. GOOD LORD - 97 - Don Bernhardt Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Ellis
12. WICKED TUNE - 97 - OC 40k/N2X - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - Delaware
14. AUTHENTICITY - 96 - Shuvee Handicap (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles - Saratoga
14. SMASH AND GRAB - 96 - Clm 30000(30-25)B - 6 Furlongs - Delaware
16. AGENT DI NOZZO - 95 - Golden Bear Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Indiana
16. JERANIMO - 95 - Eddie Read (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Del Mar
16. NEW YAWKER - 95 - Alw 7500s - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Delaware
16. SO LONG GEORGE - 95 - Nijinsky Stakes (G2-C) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Woodbine
20. MEL BEACH - 93 - OC20k/SAL16k - 6 Furlongs - Calder
20. TALLAHATCHIE LUKE - 93 - Alw 27500N2X - 6 Furlongs - Louisiana
20. WINNING IMAGE - 93 - Sweet and Sassy Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Delaware
23. DADDY NOSE BEST - 92 - Alw 45001C - 1 Mile (Turf) - Indiana
23. NEW LINE - 92 - Alw 82000N1X - 7 Furlongs - Saratoga
23. SISTERLY LOVE - 92 - Ontario Matron Stakes (G3-C) - 1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack) - Woodbine
23. SOI PHET - 92 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 1 Mile (Polytrack) - Del Mar

ALSVID's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

***

*When you get the chance, you're definitely going to want to check out "RACEHORSE," the latest production from Jessica Pacheco, racing analyst at Arlington Park.  You can find "RACEHORSE" at the following links:

In Episode 5 of RACEHORSE, Sugar Kate tries a new surface when her grass race is moved to the polytrack, and then Crown & Thistle Stable experiences the thrill of running in a Graded Stake for the very first time. Broken Bow tries to rebound after a last place finish and then his owner, Homer Schafer, lets us spend some one-on-one time with the gentle giant.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2PldT-fHP8&feature=youtu.be&a

On the AP site:

http://www.arlingtonpark.com/newsvideosblogs/racehorse-video-series

***

Dan,
At Del Mar a Pick 6 player had a winning ticket that could have resulted in a huge payout of $288k to one person, but a claim of foul by another jockey resulted in that winner being dq'ed from first and thus vaulting the 2nd place 28-1 to be the winner creating a carryover.
My question on this is: Should Stewards go on TV and explain to bettors as to why a DQ has been made? The stewards make themselves heard on newspaper/internet articles, but perhaps maybe this gives the bettors some reason on why the change was made. Money is on the line.
Thanks!
Rick M.

I couldn't agree more.  Usually, a slow-motion replay is shown with the track announcer mentioning the infraction but it would be very helpful, and more comforting to bettors, if the stewards went on camera and explained the reasoning for their decision.

***

dear dan, I know it's a late start but could you please post the stats for post positions @ Saratoga for the last 3 yrs. dirt route/sprints..turf routes/sprints inner turf /mellon turf thanks dan you & mike r the best
William Eisele

2010-CURRENT:

DIRT SPRINTS:
1. 82-540 (15%)
2. 68-540 (13%)
3. 77-540 (14%)
4. 68-539 (13%)
5. 58-530 (11%)
6. 56-488 (11%)
7. 56-418 (13%)
8. 33-283 (12%)
9. 27-168 (16%)
10. 7-95 (7%)
11. 3-49 (6%)
12. 5-25 (20%)
13. 0-16 (0%)
14. 1-5 (20%)

DIRT ROUTES:
1. 16-125 (13%)
2. 15-125 (12%)
3. 19-125 (15%)
4. 17-124 (14%)
5. 22-121 (18%)
6. 18-104 (17%)
7. 9-64 (14%)
8. 7-38 (18%)
9. 4-21 (19%)
10. 0-10 (0%)
11. 0-7 (0%)

MELLON TURF SPRINTS:
1. 10-148 (7%)
2. 19-148 (13%)
3. 18-148 (12%)
4. 21-148 (14%)
5. 19-148 (13%)
6. 12-148 (8%)
7. 14-143 (10%)
8. 14-135 (10%)
9. 8-100 (8%)
10. 9-61 (15%)
11. 4-22 (18%)
12. 0-14 (0%)

MELLON TURF ROUTES:
1. 19-142 (13%)
2. 19-142 (13%)
3. 16-142 (11%)
4. 16-142 (11%)
5. 18-141 (13%)
6. 11-141 (8%)
7. 15-134 (11%)
8. 10-123 (8%)
9. 8-112 (7%)
10. 3-91 (3%)
11. 5-41 (12%)
12. 2-24 (8%)
13. 0-1 (0%)
14. 0-1 (0%)

INNER TURF ROUTES:
1. 38-273 (14%)
2. 28-273 (10%)
3. 23-273 (8%)
4. 30-273 (11%)
5. 34-273 (12%)
6. 30-271 (11%)
7. 25-261 (10%)
8. 29-238 (12%)
9. 20-194 (10%)
10. 12-116 (10%)
11. 3-35 (9%)
12. 2-23 (9%)

***

The weekend handicapping videos should be up on the homepage later this week.

You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman

***

Congrats to Spartan Tom for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise.

Rick M's scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.

Spartan Tom selects Friday's Cougar II Handicap at Del Mar for this week's event.

PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
 
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
 
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.

PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKER AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY AND/OR ANALYSIS.
 
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
 
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
 
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

***FROM SCOREKEEPER PENN NATIONAL RICK***

I read some entries on here and there are some people who put their heart out on their picks(such as DavidM9999) and give you great analysis on who they like and why and then there are others who elect not to give any reasoning behind their entries. The rule I will implement EFFECTIVE 3/1/13 will be... any entry without ANY analysis will be ignored. We are not asking you to put out a novel, but again a sentence or two. Also, I will put communication out when Dan puts out new blogs.
My intent is not to be jerk on this, but what's fair is fair. I'm not taking away from this week or past winners regarding all of this, but we do need to make the change.
If you have any questions/concerns...please send an email to FORMBLOG@DRF.COM and it will get forwarded to me.
Thank You!
Rick

REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.

ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATE THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL).

Best of luck to all.

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ALSVID.pdf62.41 KB
Copy of Formblog James Marvin 7-19-13.xls68 KB
HGCOUGAR2.pdf175.01 KB
Cornwall Boy More than 1 year ago
Mr. Dick W ......Very nice post sir. I think it came from a deserving gentleman. Your modest acceptance speech is exemplary, and quite honest. Hopefully we will see more winners like you in the HG winners circle many more times. Last but not least, congratulations on both feats of excellence. Cornwallboy
Dick W More than 1 year ago
So it's finally official. I can now post my acceptance speech :-) I would like to thank the following for the congratulations: Turf Ruler, Okiesharp, Jeanne (aka Squirly Girly), Phild333, Curtis V Slewster, Annie, Chris Lowe, DavidM9999, 3 cats (aka Mike from Michigan) and last but surely not least BSB (aka mrboots) and of course anyone I missed. Believe it or not this was my 3rd HG win. But it has taken me in the neighborhood of 4 years (probably a bit longer) to accumulate that total. Well short of the Slewsters total I am sure. And probably others ? Anyway, they seem to arrive at about 1 year intervals for me. Anyone who thinks luck is not a factor in this game is delusional. For example, if my original pick (Lime Rickey) had not been scratched, I would likely have ended with a big zero as usual. I also could have been disqualified on a technicality as my revised wager included no analysis, even though my original wager did. I ALWAYS include at least a short analysis on all of my original wagers. So thanks PNR for being generous with the rules. There was not much I could have told anyone about Richard's Kid (or Dick W's Kid, as mrboots refers to him) that you didn't already know. Defending champion, loves DMR, no problem with the distance, class of the field having amassed over $2,300,000 in career earnings. The concern of course was current form as he had not won in a year. Anyway, he and Sky Kingdom were the obvious and legitimate favorites. As the Slewster already mentioned, 4 to 1 was a gift on him. I also had a favorable memory of him when he went off at an incredible 8-1 in the 2010 Goodwood at SA over their all weather track. He had won the Pacific Classic in his previous race and I was truly astonished at his price. Of course he won that race. And as I mentioned in an earlier post, I threw in Blueskiesnrainbows because speed had been hanging on pretty well at DMR. So that's my story and I' sticking to it :-) Good luck to all in this weeks contest. I chose the Real Good Deal at Del Mar on Friday, but told Dan to feel free to override that selection if he preferred another race. Dick W
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Whackymacky "In Saturday's 5th at SAR Kauai Katie also took most of the show pool and finished dead last. The show pay totaled $54.70. Also a short field. " Us Blue Thongs and PGM looked at the Prioress while we were at AP that day. First thoughts ...It's a " Whackymacky special " I/we got distracted with the AP races going off , and I did not put $2 across to show on the other 5 fillies. That $10 investment would have covered my losses, lunch, and entrance fee ...lol! Yep, we saw it. Nope, we didn't play , Lesson learned :) A special shout out to TBTA for being the Hostess with the Mostess while we were in Chicago ! If anyone gets a chance to do a Seqway tour, I highly recommend it :) Dominicp ...yes, Sharknado ...really ! LOL! Dick W Congrats on you HG win ! See you at 'The Blue Box', when the BC fantasy season starts this week ! SR Vegas
PennNatRick More than 1 year ago
HG Results: Congrats to Dick W. for Winning Cougar II HG Challenge! He had a $100 tri that netted $7240!! Nice! Mike Whittahorne had a $100 exacta that paid $1040 and Bornstar75 had a $1 super that paid $171.50.. congrats to all. The scratches hurt obviously. Lets hope for a great weekend of racing! Rick
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
We even had an MKB exacta at Fort Erie in Canada in the Prince of Wales Stakes! KNM'S Uncaptured WON HAIRY'S River Seven 2nd Congratulations!!!! Annie
DavidM9999 More than 1 year ago
Okie Sharp I am glad you enjoyed the recaps. Just a quick follow up on the Clocker Reports. I read on DRF a man named Mike said he had a lone ticket live in the pick 6 singled to Spin Chief in the finale Sunday at SAR. Spin Chief’s win would have resulted in a several hundred thousand dollar score. Here was the Mike Welsch clocker comment on Spin Chief’s last work: “tired very badly off a 37.98 opening 38ths, slowing to a 1:05.14 final clocking for a dull five furlongs albetit over a bit of a deep strip”. Rating : C-. Personally I usually won’t bet a horse at low/moderate odds with that kind of comment or rating (below C) at any class level. Granted there is much more to handicapping than just workouts but this one was negative enough that I eliminated Spin Chief from my pick 4. He was 5-1 and considered a contender. It took some spectacular handicapping to get the first five from Mike so I am not criticizing the single in any way. I just wanted to point out sometimes the negative clocker comments can be of value. I find the Clocker Reports a tool that is very helpful at major tracks where clockers are doing a professional job. Van Savant: I love your comment : “We don’t keep track of that because once the ticket is agreed upon, it is agreed upon”. Obviously that is not what transpired in my instance at Del Mar. I agree having a friend who invests time in handicapping and brings a unique perspective can be valuable. Thanks for sharing your perspective.
. Anderson More than 1 year ago
Fort Erie - Pick Three - July 30th Race 6, 6:44 PM ET, Starter Allowance $16K 1- Mountain Echo [6-1] 2- Catch the Luck [8-1] 3- Buy With Gold [8-1] 4- Money's Worth [12-1] 5- Majestic Hope [7-2] 6- Village Drive [2-1] 7- Bare Is Best [10-1] 8- Born to Boogie [4-1] Mountain Echo likes dirt and made a nice score ten days ago here, trainer Davis tries two turns. Money's Worth won $9k maiden claimer as favourite in local turf mile and trainer Simms shows confidence. Village Drive has a win two back under the same conditions. Bare Is Best has been ignored by the betting public lately and could be top three. Race 7, Optional $16K Claiming 1- D'oro Diablo [8-5] 2- Steady Stuart [4-1] 3- It'sapossibility [6-1] 4- Quarterback [8-1] 5- Tumeric [15-1] 6- Texas Blitz [7-2] 7- Molinaro Warrior [15-1] 8- Senor Red [15-1] Texas Blitz stretches out an extra three furlongs and matches quickness with others having a similar mindset. It'sapossibility can go fast, was 4 wide in latest. Senor Red has a couple of recent wins for top trainer Goodlet. D'oro Diablo gets a pass at 8 to 5. Race 8, Prince of Wales Stakes $500k 1- Uncaptured [9-5] 2- Dynamic Sky [3-1] 3- Spring in the Air [4-1] 4- Rackman [30-1] 5- River Seven [12-1] 6- Jagger M [6-1] 7- Niigon's Glory [15-1] 8- Power Phil [12-1] Power Phil might be in range of these and Mr. Tiller's runners have been hitting the board consistently lately, likely speed and will be 10-1 or so. Spring in the Air will be the better value play of the four Casse entrants. Uncaptured has obvious credentials including good dirt form versus quality competition.
VanSavant More than 1 year ago
DavidM9999; I too, have a friend that I sometimes split Pick 5's with. I enjoy the process because he is a brilliant handicapper and his thought process is different than mine. I have cost our partnership Wins and he has too, I suppose. We don't keep track of that because once the ticket is agreed upon, it is agreed upon. Having a partnership in wagering can be a dicey proposition depending on the dynamic of the friendship and the skills of the partners. I have another friend that I split Pick 3s with on most Breeder's Cup days. We always lose. It has never effected our friendship. Our losing together seems to be our Badge of Honor... Later gator vs
DavidM9999 More than 1 year ago
Cowboy Jones It appears authorities are looking into a race at Fairmount Park where 70 year old Cowboy Jones was attempting to win a race in seven different decades. I grew up watching Cowboy ride at Ellis Park. I also knew him from our local Moose Lodge and various poker games. He is a character and a fun guy to know. I certainly hope the riders did not conspire to let Cowboy win. I watched the replay a few times. Jones’s mount moved strongly though the turn to take command. The eventual race winner also moved strongly but went very wide on the turn. She continued wide throughout the lane while going the best late. The winner and third place horses were never whipped during the stretch. Only Cowboy was using that tool (15+ times). The race fractions go 25.44; 50;1:16.4;1:30.4; and 1:44.60. The race winner was off at 8-5 and Cowboy at 1-1. The exacta paid $9. Cowboy has quite a career. He still works out horses effectively but clearly has diminished skills in race riding. I hope this is not true as Cowboy would not want folks conspiring on his behalf. Three Year Old Division Leader Some good banter on who is the leader at this point for 3 year old male of the year. Cases can be made for Palice Malice, Orb, Verrazano, and Oxbow. Orb has the FL Derby, FOY, and KY Derby. I consider one a jewel and the other important two preps. The prep victories cannot be dismissed as they are graded but not on par in my mind with the Triple Crown, Travers, or Haskell. I realize others will disagree. I consider the KY Derby no more important than the Travers or Belmont but that is just me. Most everyone would rank the Derby higher. Palice Malice certainly has run well in the Belmont and moved it up a notch in the Jim Dandy. He looked great to my eye. Verrazano is a bit of a mystery. I just don’t know where he stands but is certainly a very nice horse. The Travers will likely move one of the three to the top assuming one of them wins it. Right now deciding who is best is a bit like ranking college basketball teams in February. Personally I think Palice Malice has the tactical edge over a late running type like Orb. I hope they all three( Oxbow too if COMPLETELY healthy)are in the gate at Saratoga. Starstruck I was happy to see the hyped Starstruck win a graded turf stakes. The barn was high on this one for sure. I posted previously I thought she was a shoe in when in an CD ALW spot two back. (Automatic kiss of death when I like a favorite and post it on Blog). She ran okay but was never catching runaway winner Henny Hues. Now Sunday she moved up to a grade 3 spot at 5-2 but was the best. Maybe Starstruck can move forward off the 93 BSF. I don’t think she is a grade 1 grass type but can certainly handle the longer 9-10F distances where a lot of mares cannot. Not sure why Calumet gave this one to Larry instead of DW Lukas but hopefully Larry can deliver on their show of faith in him. Splitting Tickets – Nightmare where the Surf meets the Turf Sunday I had a friend who wanted me to play the Pick 5 at Del Mar Sunday before we left SAR. I wrote down my play that was very compact 2x2x2x1x4. The friend said he wanted more coverage in three legs. He wanted to add one in each of the first three races. I agree with the first two (both ran horribly by the way) but said that Heat Du Jour in race 3 was not on my play list. He was 8-0-0-1 with no class drop here and had not been really close lately. I said give me one legitimate reason to use HDJ. He had none other than he liked him. I told my friend to play him separately on another ticket or just bet the whole ticket your way. He decided he wanted a split so we went forward without the 3. Well the inevitable happened. The other four win and Heat Du Jour wins at $19.40. The Pick 5 pays $3,870. My friend is upset now saying I cost him the Pick 5. My thought was bet your own ticket as we are grown men. I supplied the 4 other winners, I supplied the workout reports, I just was dead against the #3. It was not the money as it was dimes. I just don’t use horses I am against. Now I get to live with the story about my costing him for the rest of eternity. Lesson learned – don’t split tickets with friends. If you win it with them you get no credit. If you lose it for them you get the blame. Anybody need a friend? It appears I have an opening – call 1-800-DAVIDM9999
Okiesharp More than 1 year ago
DavidM9999 I appreciate your Spa / DM recap. You mentioned the workout reports which I consider to be a great tip. Thanks for sharing. Okiesharp