02/10/2011 10:58PM

Rarity rediscovered

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Guess what’s back on Friday at Santa Anita?

Thursday was the 29th day of the meet. Once upon a time, by now there would have been at least a half-dozen pick six carryovers.

But the $68,094 carryover into Friday is only the third of the season. Might want to take a shot now, because who knows when the next carryover will occur?

First things come first. A key scratch in race 7 turns the sequence into a virtual pick five.

The filly Rumor was re-entered Sunday in an allowance race for fillies, which means Friday race-7 favorite Da Ruler should start at odds-on. Da Ruler will be the shortest price on the card.

A quick look at the pick six sequence …

Race-3 favorite Lunch Time Diva (No. 4) has lost four times already at odds of 3-2 or less. But she has never lost on turf, and her dam Riverman’s Tea was a turf sprinter. Trust her? Of course not.

Duda Ten (9) was given a schooling run first time. It doesn’t mean the Rock Hard Ten filly can run, only that intentions first time out were not serious. She should improve. Shoo Gee is the speed of the field, and though the turf rails are at 24 feet, Shoo Gee (5) might be too fast for her own good.

The bottom line is race 3 is a “spread.” The only entrant without a chance is 50-1 outsider Torre Italiano (7). Probably have to use all eight others in some way, shape or form.

Race-4 favorites Warren’s Knockout (3), Shred the Secrets (5) and Drink At Busters (6) provide adequate cover. While closer Drink At Busters is favored, this handicapper prefers the quicker Shred the Secrets. Using all three is the safe way to go.

Race-5 favorite Lucky Jim (9) is stuck way outside in this mile turf race for California-bred older maidens. Not a good draw for a second-time starter. But he ran a whole lot better than expected first out. Prior to the gelding’s debut, trainer Richard Mandella said, paraphrased, “the light bulb has not gone on.”

Lucky Jim encountered trouble, and finished fourth by less than three lengths. Not bad for a firster that needed the out. To win the race Friday, Lucky Jim must catch stretch-out Excusemecomingthru (1). Can a pick six bettor get by with just two horses?

Race 6 is a potential “separation race” for budget-conscious pick-six bettors. And if front-runner Obsess (1) clears the field from the rail, he might be long gone at 6-1.

Race 7 is the proverbial “free square.” Da Ruler (4) scored an impressive debut victory with a 92 Beyer Figure after setting a fast pace. He is supposed to be long gone Friday.

Race 8 is a $20,000 maiden-claimer in which Miss Addy Kiss (6) looks like the lone speed. If the 8-5 favorite gets worn down, it likely would be by 5-2 second choice Suitable Attire (9).

A ticket using all the horses listed above (8 x 3 x 2 x 1 x 1 x 2) would cost $192.

Jackpot? It could happen.

ziels More than 1 year ago
... there was a takeout increase in California that one or two people are upset about... That just might possibly have something to do with the decline, but I do agree that four- and five-horse fields do not help. Maybe someone can ask California trainers why they seem to need 45-60 days between races now?
Del More than 1 year ago
How much time does the average bettor put into the pick six? I don't know about other people, but I need to spend about an hour minimum on each race. That's with an average field size of seven. When I play an entire card, it's like putting in a full day's work.
Del More than 1 year ago
I had a feeling the carryovers would be fewer and smaller. The change to dirt is probably the single contributing factor to the decline in handle. There are no longer jackpots that attract interest like the lottery.
Del More than 1 year ago
That's pretty disappointing when you buy the first race and the favorite ends up winning. It's like they say, when you get timid, you make bad bets.
Steve More than 1 year ago
Souped-up, biased dirt track and short fields = chalk parade.
Ryan More than 1 year ago
It's good to hear Rumor found a race. I'm not so sure Da Ruler is a free spot ...