Randy Moss

     To trainer Bob Baffert, 2010 is starting off like the days when his barn was loaded with top-quality 3-year-olds seemingly every year.  This doesn’t assure him of a fourth Kentucky Derby victory, of course, but it beats the alternative.     At the head of his roster is the new juvenile champion:  LOOKIN AT LUCKY  Smart Strike-Private Feeling by Belong to Me Owners- Karl Watson, Mike Pegram, Paul Weitman

 A couple more 2-year-olds from my review of the Churchill Downs meet - one you won't hear from this spring and one you might.  Coming up next week, a pacefig analysis of Lookin at Lucky.THISKYHASNOLIMITOwner- Cathy & Bob Zollars, Mark WagnerTrainer- Steve AsmussenSky Mesa-Lovely Regina (A.P. Indy)Record 6-3-0-1                                                                                  Pacefig lineNov 28 CD---Ky Jockey Club---------1 1/16-- 6th by 11----- 62-77-85 final 82Nov 1 CD---Iroquois Stakes-----------1M-------1st by 1

My blogging can be as frequent as my “tweets” or posts on my Facebook page. Which is to say, the schedule of my blog posts can be somewhat erratic – or in the case of tweets or Facebook, nonexistent. Having said that, while getting into the Christmas blogging spirit I recently reviewed some of the best performances at the Churchill Downs meeting by male 2-year-olds on dirt, horses who could possibly surface in Triple Crown preps. We’ll start with the obvious one: SUPER SAVER Owner- WinStar Farm Trainer- Todd Pletcher Maria’s Mon-Supercharger by A.P. Indy Record: 4-2-1-0 Nov 28 CD--- Kentucky Jockey Club---1 1/16--- 1st by 5----pacefigs 85-89-89 final 90 Oct 10 Bel--- Champagne-----------------1 mile---4th by 2----pacefigs 82-83-89 final 87 Sept 11 Bel—Maiden----------------------1 mile----1st by 7----pacef

    I’m not weighing in on the Horse of the Year debate - yet. But allow me to offer this opinion: those who use Beyer Speed Figures as the primary gauge of Zenyatta’s talents are barking up the wrong tree.    The effect of pace on Zenyatta’s figures, which is intertwined with the synthetic surfaces she primarily ran over, makes them useless in comparing her talent level to Rachel Alexandra's.     Anyone who has computed speed or pace figs can testify that races with a fast pace are more likely to earn a higher final number. A one-mile race with a six-furlong fraction of 1:10 can fall apart in the final quarter-mile and end up with a final time of 1:37. But the same horses traveling in 1:15 would need a world-class finish to stop the clock at 1:38. In a nutshell, that describes the figure differences between Rache

A look at the Breeders’ Cup main-track races from a pace figure perspective. All figs below are on the Moss Pace Figure scale.  Included are pacefigs for this year’s running, par pacefigs associated with that final figure, plus the pacefig lines from last year’s running and the local prep race at Santa Anita, at the same distance when applicable.The Juvenile Fillies came up a tad faster than par from start to finish, but slower-paced at the first call than the Oak Leaf Stakes (one reason Always a Princess was well-supported) and not as strongly run as last year.   Juv Fillies ’09 (She B Wild):         58-72-83/88  Par:                          &#