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Racing Post Ratings for American Cup Contenders
Inquiries are frequently made about how to compare Racing Post Ratings to Beyer Speed Figures. Unfortunately, the answer is "You can't." The two numbers are based on different criteria. Trying to subtract a certain number of points from a Racing Post Rating (RPR) to arrive at a Beyer Speed Figure is an exercise fraught with danger.
Fortunately, the Racing Post, Britain's leading racing daily, does compute RPR's for American races, races in the United Arab Emirates, as well as stakes in Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia. To alleviate the numbers problem. here are the RPR's for all of the leading American and foreign contenders in the Breeders' Cup races in which foreign-trained horses are running. The ratings shown are the best achieved by a horse this year, regardless of surface or distance.
Keep in mind that weight carried is taken into account in RPR's. Thus, Paco Boy received a 127 when finishing a neck second to Goldikova in the Queen Anne Stakes, for which Goldikova received a 125, because Goldikova was getting 3 lbs. from Paco Boy that day. On Saturday in the Mile, Goldikova will once again be in receipt of 3 lbs. from Paco Boy.
MARATHON Awesome Gem 116, Alcomo 111, Giant Oak 111, Prince Will I Am 107, A. U. Miner 106, Bright Horizon 103, Precision Break 100
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF Together 111, Kathmanblu 104, Winter Memories 102, Quiet Oasis 100, New Normal 98, Tale Untold 96
FILLY & MARE TURF Midday 124, Red Desire 118, Plumania 116, Harmonious 111, Miss Keller 110, Hibaayeb 109
JUVENILE FILLIES Tell A Kelly 109, Theyskens' Theory 109, A Z Warrior 102, R Heat Lightning 102, Awesome Feather 100
JUVENILE TURF Master of Hounds 115, Utley 108, Mantoba 102, Soldat 100, Air Support 99
JUVENILE Uncle Mo 116, Jaycito 114, Boys At Tosconova 112, Stay Thirsty 107, Biondetti 105
MILE Paco Boy 127, Goldikova 125, Sidney's Candy 123, Court Vision 122, Gio Ponti 121, Delegator 116, Proviso 114
TURF Workforce 130, Behkabad 127, Debussy 122, Dangerous Midge 121, Telling 115, Winchester 115, Al Khali 111, Champ Pegasus 106
CLASSIC Quality Road 130, Lookin At Lucky 129, Blame 125, Zenyatta 124, Espoir City 123
As evidence of how widely the opinions of Andy Beyer and the Racing Post mavens who produce the RPR's differ, there is the case of Proviso. She has received a 114 RPR in her last four races, but her Beyer number for those four, going backwards in time are 102, 97, 95 and 93.
Also, take note that Debussy received his 122 when winning the Arlington Million, but got just a 121 for his thrid-place finish in Newmarket's Champion Stakes last time.
Keep in mind that the Racing Post Rating is a handicap rating. If these horses are equally weighted in a race, the horse with the highest rating is generally expected to win. If you think otherwise, whether it is because you believe the horse is off-form, won't like the distance, or the surface, or has received a disadvantageous post position, bet against it.
Hello Mr. Shuback, I'm intersted in BCFM, Race 9- 11-5-2010. The # 1 Plumania appears she is within range of Midday. If you throw out the Arc, she has performed at a top level, ie: 6/27 race where she beat Males. The premise for my interest is that when allowed to stay close to the pace, drafting, which is usually the ideal trip, she has shown cabable of running very well. Secondly, the firm turf, which has been discussed, may be benificial . and detrimental to Midday. My plan of wagering would be hook #1 and #7 in exacta box-- leaning more of #1 to #7 on top. Secondly- will also play an exacta box with #1 and #10 equally- at half wager amount of Primary box. Lastly - 1/2,3,4,6 and 2346/1 exactas at a third of top exacta box. Will probably place decent win wager if odds are reasonable, hoping to get better than morning line. Any thoughts on Plumania's chances? Good Luck on your BC wagers.
Alan, Thanks for clearing up the issue re Paco Boy earning a higher RPR than Goldikova even though Goldikova finished ahead of Paco Boy. I enjoy your writing more than any other DRF writer. You have an excellent grasp of international racing scene and a quirky prose to match. If I had a chance to attend one international meeting, what do you suggest, Royal Ascot? Stats Geek (Thank you for your very kind words. Would you like to become my press agent?) AS
Alan- I understand the differences in how the two figures are reached. I also understand that there is no relation between the two that can be represented by any sort of arithmetic or mathemetical formula. You say, "Trying to subtract a certain number of points from a Racing Post Rating (RPR) to arrive at a Beyer Speed Figure is an exercise fraught with danger." I would agree, however, couldnt it also be said that trusting the accuracy of any of these figures at times can be "fraught with danger" and numerous flaws in the systems used to derive all these types of figures should lead any handicapper to be wary of leaning on them too much. Either way we do the best we can and for general comparisons of horses that we only have one set of figures for, i have found that subracting 15 from the RPR often gives a good starting point in terms of what kind of speed figure said horse may be likely to run. I dont know how....dont know why....but it seems to work out that way with some approximation. I use it for quick comparison....to get a general idea. I know others who do too. In the example you gave above with proviso (114 rpr her last 4 starts) and BSF of 102, 97, 99, 95 for a average BSF of about 97 her last 4 starts. Minus 15 from the 114 rpr and were not off crazy amounts here...especially considering the fact these figures accuracies to begin with are based on methods that are far from precise and reliable. Come on Alan.....you can admit it......you deduct the 15 from the RPR to get an early, general vicinity idea. A lot of us do....must we be ashamed?? does this somehow make us less of handicappers?? Just having some fun. Good luck this wknd. eric t (I put little faith in ratings or numbers of any kind. I think they are the lazy man's way of handicapping. With all of the data at our fingertips- in any country- people should be able to figure out for themselves the relative merits of any horse. As far as I am concerned, the only people who make money off the numbers are the people who make the numbers.) AS
Mr. Shuback, I have a question. What happened to the TIMEFORM Ratings? I Know they are still around of course, and DRF used to publish them in the paper. And they have been the standard for rating horses internationally for a long time, but now you have seperate Racing Post Ratings to confuse the comparison between Timefore and RPR. To me, there should be one rating system. Your thoughts? (The Daily Racing Form switched to Racing Post Ratings at least four years ago following a contractual disagreement with Timeform. We were not trying to confuse you, but were merely providing you with a set of ratings every bit as good as those provided by Timeform. The Racing Post is the British equivalent to the Daily Racing Form. Their ratings are used by a large majority of British and Irish handicappers.) AS