08/31/2010 1:05PM

Rachel's Limitations Exposed

By Alan Shuback
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There are so many things to say about Rachel Alexandra's performance at Saratoga on Sunday, one hardly knows where to begin. Let's start by saying that her second-place finish to Persistently in the Personal Ensign Stakes proves conclusively that she does not stay 1 1/4 miles.
One of the illusions surrounding this very nice but always overrated filly was that she might stay 10 furlongs. But Mine That Bird was getting to her going 1 3/16 miles in the '09 Preakness, and she was life and death to hold off the Grade 2 type Macho Again in last September's Woodward at 1 1/8 miles. After posting modest fractions on Sunday, it took her about 27.5 second to traverse the last quarter. Anything beyond 1 1/8 miles from this point would be a recipe for defeat.
Two other factors led to her defeat in the Personal Ensign. One is that she failed to improve as a 4-year-old, and may have retrogressed a bit. It is very likely that her connections were well aware of this as far back as midwinter, as they gave her an unusually lengthy 6 1/2-month vacation after her Woodward exertions, then ran her twice against vastly inferior competition in ungraded stakes. Even running a horse of her caliber in Grade 2 filly and mare races was a copout, one that had racing fans throughout the world questioning Steve Asmussen's choice of races for the 2009 Horse of the Year.
Having twice beaten males at the Grade 1 level as a 3-year-old, there was really no justification for the weak distaff competition Rachel Alexandra had faced prior to Sunday. The underlying reason for horse racing is, after all, is to determine the best horse. Running Rachel Alexandra in the New Orleans Ladies, the La Troienne, the Fleur de Lis and the Lady's Secret, two of which she lost, defeats the purpose.
Her avoidance of Zenyatta is as much the fault of that mare's connections as it is that of Asmussen and Rachel's owners at Stonestreet Stable. Yes, America is a vey big country with lots of opportunities for horses in any division in all regions. But that is no excuse for depriving us of a race between the two. Now that Rachel Alexandra has shown that she can't stay 1 1/4 miles, any chance of a meeting with Zenyatta has very likely gone up in the Personal Ensign dust.
Such a thing could never happen in Europe where Sariska and Midday, the two best distaffers in England and Ireland, have run against seach other four times in the last two years. By the same token, the 4-year-old Sariska is slated to meet the 3-year-old Sarafina, France's best filly or mare, in the Prix Vermeille on Sept. 12. In Europe, owners and trainers are not shy of running the best against the best.
One of the problems with American racing is that owners are too often are more interested in winning money than in proving that they have the best horse. Or to put it another way, they are more afraid of losing than they are desirous of winning, especially when they have a "big" horse. The idea seems to play out the illusion of greatness for as long as possible. That appears to be what they were doing with Rachel Alexandra, and now her bubble has burst.
And so Rachel will probably never meet Zenyatta who, while she has been running in Grade 1 events this year, has spent much of her time beating up on an inferior bunch of West Coast females.
Just as Rachel Alexandra may have been softened up by running agsinst nonentities until Sunday, and so was unprepared for the early pressure applied by Life at Ten and the late pressure applied by Persistently, Zenyatta must be on her guard. Taking the measure of Rinterval, St Trinians and Tapatam as she has this season is not necessarily going to prepare her for the likes of Lookin at Lucky, Blame and Quality Road she might be meeting in a defense of her Breeders' Cup Classic title.

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September 06, 2010
01:08 PM

Posted by wynn

Rachel was definitely overrated. She beat weak males that any previous decent 3 year old filly would also beat.
September 06, 2010
07:50 AM

Posted by babygooze

Yes, indeed! Zenyatta's long winning streak cannot compare to the level of truly COMPETITIVE races Rachel won last year.
September 02, 2010
10:11 PM

Posted by racing_enthusiast

A few observations / personal thoughts come to mind here.
Rachel Alexandra's 2009 Horse of the Year honors were rightly justified. We witnessed a brilliant campaign by a 3-year-old filly in the top of her form -even besting the boys. Nuff said. However, I believe her trainer should have been experienced enuf to realize that these moments, no matter how long they last at the time, cannot continue indefinitely, and that Rachel Alexandra was probably not the "type" of horse that would improve in her later years. That brings us to Zenyatta, who showed us that she *was* capable of being that "type" of horse, given her running style, stocky build, and grit. She reminds of another Horse of the Year, a two-timer, and a cross-over to the harness world if you will allow me, to a great racehorse named Cam Fella, who won 28 races in a row in 1983 by extremely narrow margins -- the point being he was a champion and refused to be defeated, much like Zenyatta. So what is my point - give Rachel her due, praise Zenyatta for her lasting superiority, and above all, enjoy it all. Oh BTW, seeing how the European horses tend to dominate the Breeder's Cup races often enuf, I'd really welcome a race or two between America's best mare and Europe's best.
September 02, 2010
08:18 PM

Posted by JR

Mr. Shuback, I'm surprised by your comment of avoidance. The racing picture is very different in N.A. in that you have various race tracks offering (competing) similar type/class/purses. Where in Europe this rarely occurs, so you get these matchups so desired by the public. And that is one of the problems facing the N.A. racing industry today.
September 02, 2010
06:25 PM

Posted by Gary C

100% correct about Rachael this year, but a bit harsh on her very ambitious campaign last year. The point you make about US horsemen not running their horses against the best is one of many reasons that the racing industry is in a steep decline. I was at the Wynn racebook for 2 weeks this summer and the age of the people wagering was well over 50. But I have lost respect for Jess Jackson and am more than ever convinced that the synthetic track had nothing to do with the defeat of Curlin. As far as Zenyatta,s victory in the classic, how have the horses done that she defeated last year? Goldikova is the horse people should be talking about.
September 02, 2010
07:51 AM

Posted by Travis

Alan,
"...always overrated filly"? Are you kidding? Sure, Rachel's 2010 campaign is in no way comparable to her 2009 campaign. The same campaign that ultimately led to her being crowned the Horse of the Year. The same campaign where she won 8 races including beating the boys 3 times. The same campaign that she won the Preakness, Haskell, and Woodward. The Preakness in which no other filly has won in 84 years. The same Haskell that she beat Summer Bird (who happen to win 3 year old male honors) by over 6 lengths and posted a 116 Beyer. And the same Woodward that she ran into super quick early fractions (22.85, 46.41, 1:10:54, 1:35:48, 1:48:29) and still held off a deep closer in Macho Again. Did you even watch these races? Or do you believe that because she won horse of the year that she should be able to replicate that same campaign in 2010? Because if so that's a little unrealistic and maybe you should come back to reality. Obviously she had a tough campaign that deservingly led to horse of the year and the price she had to pay for that was a year like you're seeing in 2010.

It also sounds like you are trying to discredit the competition she raced against in 2009. I'm not sure but I thought the Preakness, Haskell, Woodward, and several other races in her 2009 campaign were formidable G1 races. Is it not good enough that she won those races? Is it her fault that she only beat Mine That Bird in the Preakness? I'm not sure how you could justify implying that somehow because those horses that she beat doesn't compare to Blame, Quality Road, or Lookin' At Lucky that she doesn't deserve the praise for her 2009 campaign. Which by the way, take a look at this years field for the Woodward. A field of six in which Quality Road's main contenders are Mythical Power (a multiple Grade 3 winner) and ....wait for it....Mine That Bird! The same competition you bash Rachel for beating in the Preakness.

And maybe RA isn't a mile and a quarter horse. Maybe she doesn't like going the extra distance. Or maybe it was her first shot at it and again the early fractions were too much to maintain till the end. But somehow I get the impression that you don't really watch these races and don't understand pace. But regardless of your lack of horse racing knowledge, to discredit her 2009 campaign because of her 2010 campaign is just ridiculous and proves you don't really know much about the game.
September 01, 2010
11:52 PM

Posted by David


Alan,

The one area not discussed is the flawed Eclipse voting system that anointed Rachel Alexandra Horse of the Year in the first place. The HOY is like an albatross, reminding everyone of the vote last year. The East Coast bias, now more familiar to the public, is not just seen in the media that covers horseracing nationally and which is concentrated in that region. But it is also evident in the make-up of the Eclipse awards. For example, most of the people voting are not from the West, where Zenyatta was based. A lopsided number of voters are in the East. Whoever runs the Eclipse needs to change its make-up and/or the voting process so that the entire country is more evenly reflected.

Most of the East Coast-based media elite appear to have a bias for horses that run on the dirt and are against the synthetic tracks, putting Zenyatta and other horses that run on the synthetic at a distinct disadvantage that has nothing to do with their performance on the track. To the handler’s credit, they have run Zenyatta based on her well-being; they do not focus on the surface. She has raced nearly 3 years and held form. If the Eclipse people do the right thing, Zenyatta will win HOY, breaking the synthetic ceiling. It will not undo the vote of last year, but may restore some credibility to the Eclipse Awards.

The main people putting pressure on RA’s handlers to run her in the Breeder’s Cup Classic are those that voted her HOY. It is as if they need validated their votes of last year. They are not thinking in the interests of the horse. For one, she is most likely not a Classic distance runner; her sire, Medaglia D’Oro, won only one Grade I at 1 ¼. The handlers last year ran a clever campaign, running RA in the Preakness, the shortest of the Triple Crown races. They bypassed the Belmont. They ducked Zenyatta in the Classic, which is at 1 ¼, using the synthetic surface as the reason.

The point to add to your cogent comments is that Zenyatta beat the toughest horses to run last year. She is the first female thoroughbred in history to win the Classic. She came out of retirement, in part, to face RA, on the dirt track in the Apple Blossom this year. But once again the handlers were a no-show. There are no Alydars or Easy Goers right now. With a few exceptions, including Blame, who appears to relish the longer distances, and Looking at Lucky, who else does Zenyatta need to run against. They can all meet in the Classic. Even if Zenyatta makes it to this year’s Classic and wins it will not prove much more than we already know. If she runs and loses most likely it will not be because of the competition she faced or lack thereof.



September 01, 2010
05:38 PM

Posted by Steve

A few points about all of this...

First, no filly has ever accomplished at age 3 what RA did last year. I think she has paid the price. Fillies should not face Grade 1 colts at age 3 in distance races.

Second, I feel that thoroughbreds should not race at all until the fall of their 3-year-old season. Guess who followed that path? That's right, Zenyatta.

Rachel's still developing structure was abused by Jackson and Asmussen in 2009. A colt can certainly take that better than a filly however.

The Rachel Alexandra we saw in 2009 IS Rachel Alexandra. She won those races at all those tracks against both fillies and colts. You cannot overrate a performance after it is already in the books. Give me a break.

Zenyatta remains the most overrated horse male or female of all time. She has been "carried" like a champion boxer through her 3, 4, 5, and 6-year-old seasons. Rachel has already raced at age 4 one more time than Z has at age 6. Zenyatta has left CA only twice and faced males only once and most of her victories have been slow times against female plow horses. She has even avoided the prestigous races in her own backyard like say the "Big Cap". Had she won a few of these real races in her career you would have no argument from any knowledgeable lover of this game.

I know that both Rachel and Zenyatta are awesome fillies but only one of the two has been allowed to prove it. And she unfortunately has paid the price.
September 01, 2010
04:11 PM

Posted by Cindy

right to the point, Hexicon. I had my fill of match races with Ruffian, there was a filly for the ages whose light went out way too early. I love both RA & Zen, and to me it's the thrill of the race, the beauty of God's most unbelievable speed on four legs, the look in their eyes. Zen's dance, RA's look of royalty. Somewhere along the way in America we seem to have lost that ability to experience that feeling, in the quest for the money, behind the glass, over the TV, on the computer. We might as well be pulling a handle. At least both of these camps have had the fortitude to continue to race these great horses, so we can see them, talk about them, and sometimes even experience their presence in person. If only
September 01, 2010
01:35 PM

Posted by Jordan, wake up

"Always overrated" couldn't be more accurate about Rachel Alexandra. She has been topping fields of pigs, all the way through. Only one horse she beat in last year's Woodward has ever won again. The males she beat were terrible lots.

The only people who voted for Rachel Alexandra as HOY last year are those who continue to have their heads in the sand regarding what racing has become being so vastly inferior to what racing was back when those big name races actually meant something.

September 01, 2010
01:29 PM

Posted by binky mcfadden

I agree with Paul.

Also, Beyers are also overrated, overblown, and certainly not the objective measure they are presented to be. They are obviously "fudged" to hype certain horses and certain races. Beyers are a "relative" measure and not a comparable one. A A10 point range (+ or - 5 points) might be a useful comparable, at best. Any fan who believes a 101 on one track is comparable to 101 on another is a sucker in the making.

September 01, 2010
01:08 PM

Posted by Anita

Agree, Rachel was overrated last year and it was a media illusion that she would get 10 furlongs.

I note that whenever her angry fans insist she was not overrated, they state she won 5 grade 1s but conveniently ignore the weak competition in those races.

So I invite Jordan to name one filly who Rachel beat last year that went on to do anything noteworthy?

And the only male she beat that went on to do anything noteworthy was Summer Bird. However, she raced against him at a distance that did not suit him. And I recall his trainer challenging Rachel to take on Summer Bird at 10 furlongs but her connections instead chose weaker males in a 9 furlong race.






September 01, 2010
12:36 PM

Posted by Vicki McKnight

To answer Jordan, Genuine Risk, who not only won against 3 year old males at 10 furlongs, but ran in all three classic races placing admirably. She was never out of the money in all three of the triple crown races. Lets not get too excited about that Woodward, had she been up against top handicap horses, she loses. I am not saying Rachel is not an outstanding horse, she just isn't beyond 9 furlongs. She has distance limitations. If you go back through the history of great fillies and mares, Rachel will likely end up in the bottom end of the rankings once the euphoria of her three year old year is over. She certainly is not in the class of free runners, like Lady's Secret and Ruffian who could carry their speed and win at the classic distance. She was not the best of her division at two, nor is she the best of her division at 4. In fact she is probably not even number two. She was Horse of the Year at 3 because she was voted off the accomplishments she attained during the spring and summer. She won Horse of the Year because she defeated the horse, Summer Bird, who won the East Coast's top races during the fall, and Zenyatta's connections never ran her in the East. Had Zenyatta won in the East, she probably gets enough votes to receive the Horse of the Year.
September 01, 2010
11:47 AM

Posted by Lee

Bravo! Well said, old chap. I would like to point out that every racing mare in the US could be included in the "inferior bunch" that dare take on Zenyatta. Why would her connections chase across this big country (not a little island) to take on expected (but never dare show up) competition? As far as the boys go, well, they didn't fare any better than the girls last year. Why not just wait for them all to show up at once as was the case last year? Ah, but trouncing the best group of G1 males in 2009 is not enough, is it? Unfortunately for racing, winning the BC is not the same as winning the Super Bowl or World Series (I can't imagine the Yankees not showing up because the game would be played on Astro-turf) and we must wait and hope that the brotherhood of East Coast voters admit to the difference between RA and the great Zenyatta.
September 01, 2010
11:32 AM

Posted by Andrew

I don't think it is fair to say Zenyatta has been beating an :"inferior bunch of west coast mares" First of all, what about St. Trinians? Second, What would be the difference if she beat an inferior bunch of east coast mares? Is there any mare on the east coast or anywhere in America who would be a challenge for Zenyatta?? Look what happened in the Apple Blossoms...
September 01, 2010
10:56 AM

Posted by Rachel

Alan,

Stop "rating" racehorses, please.

Last year the eastern no-nothing sports writers, except for Joe Drape of the NYT, were sure that Z would lose the BCC. Thinking they must know something I didn't, I passed up the minimum bet window where my intuition said, "Bet on Zenyatta." Now you tell me that her inferior competition this year doesn't measure up to LAL, QR, Blame, and maybe others. How about the competition she mowed down last year at the BCC? So, as of this year last year's colts were inferior, right? I laugh when I read that Zenyatta's competition has always been inferior. Of course they were. Zenyatta is a great racehorse. Yes, I'm sorry that Z didn't meet up with RA, but she went to the Apple Blossom. I praise her connections for looking out for her, not for wanting to make money. The fact that she is sound at 17.2 hands after 18 straight wins speaks volumes about the care she has justly received. I'm tired of sportswriters who run her down.

And I'm tired of sportswriters who run Rachel down, too, by the way. Low class. How incredibly lucky we've been to see the likes of these two fillies.
September 01, 2010
10:51 AM

Posted by adam

Paul, I completely agree. I have bet against her all season and will continue to do so. My feelings after last year was she beat a weak crop of 3 year olds, barely beat a non top caliber horse in macho again amongst others when faced older. Zardana, Unrivalled Belle and Persistently have proven that point.
September 01, 2010
10:40 AM

Posted by Craig M

Anyone thinking the fractions was moderate doesn't understand much about pace and is not doing his homework.

Even without a clock or pace figures, a blind man could see that the two best horses opening up 15+ lengths on the field while banging each other and being wide on the first turn then getting run down by an inferior plodder indicates the pace was light years from moderate. Stick to you are of expertise, pace clearly isn't it.
September 01, 2010
10:40 AM

Posted by Jason

Agreed that Rachel is an extremely overrated filly. She clearly cannot stay a mile and a quarter against any kind of decent competition. The fact that she is inferior at navigating AMERICA"S CLASSIC DISTANCE surely has to take away from her accomplishments going 1 1/8 miles. American racing's true champions are champions who dominated at 1 1/4 miles - Secretariat, Spectacular Bid, Damascus, Forego, and yes ZENYATTA. What is most sad is that Jackson and Asmussen are much too chicken to face Zenyatta (especially at 1 1/4 miles). Jackson's EGO won't allow him to face Zenyatta in the BC Classic. The thought of Rachel getting demolished at Churchill Downs by a superior mare is too devastating for him to endure. For that, he is a coward and most certainly not a sportsman in the thoroughbred game. So, it will be a few more Grade 2's or some ungraded stakes for Rachel until it iis time for her to qwuietly slither away with her tail between her legs, having thoroughtly enjoyed her 15 minutes of fame. Bon Voyage Rachel. Will look for you in the entries of 1 1/8 mile second stringer races. I hope Jackson's and Asmussen's heart are ripped out as Zenyatta makes her way to the BC Classic where REAL CHAMPIONS are stamped and remembered!
September 01, 2010
09:45 AM

Posted by Rich C

Jordan, look at the competition Rachel faced. Other than Summer Bird and a very courageous Musket Man (in a subpar year for 3 yr old colts) there isn't much to speak of. As for the older colts, Macho Again? Come on, as the writer said, Grade II colt at best. Mine that Bird? can't sniff the winners circle after the Derby. Bullsbay? Terrible in the BC mile and did nothing since while Zenyatta destroyed the best older colts in the Classic. As for the fillies Rachel beat, does anyone remember any of them? Very nice filly but Jess Jackson and the East Coast people really blew alot of smoke last year to get her the award after very nice campaign but she is no more than a very good filly. She has been exposed in terms of longevity and greatness.

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