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Rachel, Mendip, Dr. Fager
I'm probably in the minority here...
But I just didn't like Rachel Alexandra's work the other day at the Fair Grounds. Not only did she seem extremely eager and headstrong at the start of her breeze, but I thought the last quarter-mile was rather uninspiring. Yes, she blew by her overmatched workmate, Depaul, a three-year-old colt eligible for an entry-level allowance race, in rather fast time. But she switched back to her left lead after passing Depaul in the early stretch and it took her another couple of strides to flip back to her correct lead after that.
I've seen several videos of Rachel's workouts this winter. In all of them, she seems very energetic upon entering the track. She's having fun out there. But when it comes time to settle down and respond to Dominic Terry's early commands, she starts to pull, pull, pull. Perhaps she's so fresh that she just wants to get on with it already, but it looks like she's a bit unfocused. Over-eager and switching leads at the wrong times? Maybe she's playing around.
Zenyatta is not a toy. You don't play with her.
Perhaps I'm overanalyzing. It's just one work. Rachel may not be even close to fully cranked for her date in the New Orleans Ladies on March 13. Perhaps she's still getting into her rhythm. But I'll be very, very interested to see her next work on Monday morning.
Vale of York, the winner of last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, didn't do much in his three-year-old debut earlier today at Meydan. Racing at the distance of About 1 3/16 miles over the Tapeta surface in the Listed Al Bastakiya, Vale of York, as is his tendency, was very eager at the start of the race. He sat a decent stalking spot while on the outside but lacked a strong punch when the real running began. Godolphin representatives had mentioned that he was a bit behind in his preparation so it may be wise to give Vale of York one more try in the UAE Derby.
The Al Bastakiya wasn't a complete failure for Godolphin as Mendip, ridden by Frankie Dettori, moved his undefeated streak to three with a powerful six and one-quarter length win. A son of Harlan's Holiday, a three-time Grade 1 winner at nine furlongs, Mendip sold for $130,000 as a yearling before being scooped up by Godolphin for $375,000 last year. His second dam is Chaposa Springs, a multiple Grade 1 sprint winner. Chaposa Springs is a half-sister to Met Mile winner You and I. The third dam, La Chaposa, was a multiple Group 1 winner in he native Peru.
While Mendip looked good, crossing over from his far outside post to prompt the pace from the two-path, the pace seemed to be dawdling. I wonder if Mendip would stay 10 furlongs with a more American-type pace up front.
Mendip won't be on this page but here are the latest Derby Futures from Lucky's Las Vegas:
We mentioned Dr. Fager's 1968 season in a recent FormBlog post. Let's relive Dr. Fager's championship year through the legendary Charles Hatton's words from his "Profiles of Best Horses" column from the 1969 American Racing Manual
"Dr. Fager was a singular performer as a four-year-old in 1968. He was appropriately awarded Horse of the Year honors, which is the ultimate accolade, and excelled in more departments and divisional titles than any horse since the DAILY RACING FORM and The Morning Telegraph poll was instituted in 1936. William McKnight's Tartan Stable homebred also was proclaimed the handicap, turf course and sprint champion all rolled into one.
Dr. Fager set and tied records from seven furlongs to a mile and a quarter, slashing the world mile mark to 1:32 1/5 en route. He did everything with flair, though he was not tested at cup routes and his stamina was not incorruptible by the iconoclasts. His prodigal wire to wire speed, his impartiality concerning track conditions, his bravery under fire and his ability to make light of enervating weights, elicited widespread acclaim..."
"...Nevertheless, any statistical summary of Dr. Fager's record has a ring. At four, he won seven of eight races and earned $406,110, then retired to the breeding paddocks at Tartan Farm, Ocala, Fla., in sound condition.
In three seasons of his active career, he won 18 of 22 starts and placed ninth on the roster of all-time money leaders with $1,002,642.
Dr. Fager is partially syndicated for stud duty, with his breeder retaining 24 shares and his trainer and one-fourth owner, John Nerud, disposing of three of his eight shares at the heady rate of $100,000 each. The horse is insured for $3,500,000, and this seemingly hysterical evaluation places him in the front rank of first season sires. Two decades ago, one could scarcely give away a Florida-bred, and the fact Dr. Fager is out of a gift mare is more romantic than the gospel according to Vuilliers, Lowe, and other proponents of breeding theorem."
"...Dr. Fager's knees and ankles were mushy as a young horse and he was not nominated to the futurities. He was afforded time for the bones to develop, before the introduction of X-ray programs for yearlings' underpinning, which has made some significant differences to horses' conformation, concerning the soundness of the species.
In the course of the '68 season, Dr. Fager won the Roseben, Californian, Suburban, Whitney, Washington Park Handicap, United Nations and Vosburgh, and placed in the Brooklyn. He won from seven furlongs to a mile and a quarter, under weights ranging from 130 to 139, carried 134 pounds a mile in 1:32 1/5, winning the Washington Park 'Cap by 10 astonishing lengths, and gave Advocator 22 pounds and a beating in his only start on grass in the United Nations.
It required the combined efforts of Damascus and his surrogate, Hedevar, to negotiate his defeat in the Brooklyn, run in 1:59 1/5 for the 10 furlongs. At three, the Tartan flyer won seven of nine starts and $484,194, including the mile and a quarter New Hampshire Sweepstakes at Rockingham in track record time of 1:59 4/5.
Conceivably, Dr. Fager was his own formidable foe. Except for being at once arrogant, conceited, impetuous and ingenuous, he might never have known defeat. A rank, headstrong individual who was a hard puller with a hard mouth, he always led trumps. Little Willie Shoemaker, with his delicate hands, never really fit him. Braulio Baeza got on fairly well with him, through cajolery and exercising care not to antagonize him."
"Dr. Fager could never tolerate following a rival or stalking the pace once his blood was up, and his impatience had a low threshold. Rival riders knew this and in the Woodward, when he was three, they made a dead set at getting him on the muscle early in the race, yelling alongside him and slapping their whips to excite him into excessive use of his resources. Somewhat similarly, Hedevar had only to prompt him into the first turn to set him up for Damascus in the '68 Brooklyn.
Nerud was delighted, naturally, to find the colt had phenomenal speed at two - and he made the most of it. Could he have foreseen what manner of horse Dr. Fager would become, the trainer might have endeavored to teach him to wait, rating behind horses in his work. But then this tactic often has the effect of confusing and at length discouraging a horse so that he does nothing well. Considering Dr. Fager's mettlesome, volatile nature, it is quite possible he would have been utterly spoiled and too hostile for any use.
The NYRA's learned Dr. M. A. Gilman sized up Dr. Fager with standard and tape last September. The colt's vital statistics:
Height, 16 hands, 2 inches.
Point of shoulder to point of shoulder, 15 inches.
Girth, 73 1/4 inches.
Withers to point of shoulder, 29 inches.
Elbow to ground, 38 1/2 inches.
Point of shoulder to point of hip, 48 inches.
Point of hip to point of hip, 24 inches.
Point of hip to point of hock, 41 inches.
Point of hip to buttock, 24 inches.
Poll to withers, 43 inches.
Buttock to ground, 57 1/4 inches.
Point of shoulder to buttock, 69 1/2 inches.
Circumference of cannon under knee, 8 1/2 inches.
Dr. Fager's easy competency at eliminating time and space is explicable in his conformation, which implements his fluent action. For the sake of comparison, he girths a quarter-inch more than did Kelso, but the latter measured 43 inches from hip to hock.
Buckpasser girthed a substantial 75 1/2 inches and measured 43 inches from hip to hock. All have in common the fact they proved intuitively genuine race horses. The action, heart, nerves and combustion of oxygen into motivation power for the muscles are things one cannot see studying a horse in his box. They are the most crucial factors..."
"Dr. Fager is something of a sport, or freak, as old-time horsemen say..."
It's interesting, but Mr. Hatton didn't seem to consider Dr. Fager as one of the true all-time greats. Also from the column:
"If not a great horse in the purist sense that France's Gladiateur, England's St. Simon and Ormonde, Ireland's Barcaldine, Hungary's Kincsem, Argentina's Botafogo and our own Man o' War epitomized that character, he was assuredly exceptional."
"Even in saying that, one suspects some of the more enthusiastic and impressionable Dr. Fager buffs among contemporary connoisseurs will demur he is being 'damned with faint praise.' It may sound pompous but it is one of the few benefits of increasing age that with it comes widened experience and a resultant development of critical faculty. It is not possible to pass judgment of value on different racing eras and their champions without having lived with them. Even then, one's comparisons of the horses are insupportable by factual evidence.
Acquaintance with Old Rosebud, Exterminator, Reigh Count, Ribot, Gallant Fox, Regret, Equipoise, Eight Thirty, Pharis, Man o' War and Hyperion tempers one's enthusiasm for venturing curbstone opinions on the successive seasons' champions. Emotional judgments of the moment are not terribly important once they may be seen in the perspective of time."
I wonder what Mr. Hatton would think of the state of the game - 2010.
Didn't get a chance to really look at the pp's but i'm pretty familiar with a few of these. I was at Belmont when wesley cleared his first level allowance condition and was speaking with dominguez following the race regarding a horse he had coming up the following weekend. He was very high on Wesley that day but for whatever reason didnt ride him back in the hall of fame which he won fairly easily. He's run well of the layoff before and let's see if hennig has him re4ady to beat this nice field. 100 win wesley
For HG let's go with The Gotham Stakes at 1 1/16 miles at the BIG A.
Congrats to americashorse for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise. Here are the past performances for Saturday's Gotham at Aqueduct.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Best of luck to all.
Back Saturday with the HG analysis along with some weekend picks. Will get to questions, comments, and pp requests on Monday.
Hey Dan, can you put up the PP's for Mendip. Thanks.
ROTD 6th from Gulfstream Been doing quite well with these ROTD's I will be "in the pink" with PINKARELLA CHAAZZ
All I can say is wow. I've been hearing statistics all over the place. U better stop putting UR money on females vs. males, especially when its not grass. It hardly EVER happens. Throw them OUT. Unless it's Rachel. or z, w/o RA..LOL.. I don't have the time to quote people. But, there were a lot of St. Trinians fans. My 1st throw out. Some said the colt division is weak. 1 blogger even went so far, to say, that since RA did it, St. Trinians should have no problem..LOL..I say wake up. RA made the colts look weak. They weren't weak, RA is that strong. She absolutely annihilated the fillies. It was a mistake to compute what Rachel did, & transpose her performance unto other mere female runners. So, please learn from UR mistakes. Rachel did in fact beat the boys 3 times. She time & time again has done what no other filly has EVER done. & all the other girls can't beat the boys. U people have been blinded by UR distaste of the HOY award. They got it right, U got it wrong. So, the next time U see a female vs. the boys, I don't want U to "Mis-Remember" the following. Unless U see a female named Rachel Alexandra in the starting gate: please stick w/ the boys. Yes, Rachel is in fact, a once in a lifetime horse. Be glad U witnessed it... & U witnessed it 3 times & counting...
HG-175 Too many questions in here to bet real money so with Dan's let's try this. 20 ex box 2-10 10 Tri 2/10/1,4,9 10 Tri 10/2/1,4,9 Good luck to everyone and thanks cayman for keeping up with all this action.
Dan, Steve T, formbloggers, I was wondering if you know of a data source that can provide jockey stats based on pedigree data. For example, is there a way to get the data on Joel Rosario's win percentage on sons of Tribal Rule? I think this type of information would at least be interesting, and may be useful. WhackyMacky, Please don't stop posting dollar amounts on your wagers, it is interesting because it shows how much you like certain bets over others. As for me on Rachel vs. Zenyatta I'll likely just wait til race day and take whatever I get on Zenyatta. I'll only play a win bet and keep it simple. I'll bet as much on that as I will on all my Kentucky Derby bets combined, which is roughly equal to what I bet on all my Breeders' Cup bets. If Zenyatta wins I'll be taking big shots(for me) in the Derby this year. If Rachel wins and its a great race for the ages, I'll be alright with that too. I just really hope the race lives up to the hype. I haven't looked forward to a race so much since the not to be Big Brown vs. Curlin matchup in the 2008 BC Classic. May the best horse win.
PH Picks: Gotham: Nacho Friend Palm Beach: Asphalt Razorback Hcp: Win Willy Azeri: War Echo A couple of SA Race Picks: Race 5: #1 Patriotic Soldier Race 6: #10 High Success (Best Bet) Race 7: Nextdoorneighbor/Kettle River exacta box Race 8: All Due Respect/Blind Luck exacta box Race 10: Pool Play Race 11: Crash Landing, Fitzmo, Objectified exacta box Good luck everybody! tencentcielo
have to say i liked peppi last time and with the way he won being discounted due to the problems with 85 50 will like the price again today. he has done everything asked of him so far on dirt except beat a horse that would be 3-5 in here. there are three in here that the trainers are taking a look to see if they have something;yawana , awesome, and wow wow all three will be bet in anticipation. have to respect lucas though the post and his style will severely compromise his chances. also think bravo will fly under the radar here looks like a sprinter sorta but also looks like here he can rate a little bit. here's the play 10 ex box 3,6 10 ex box 6,10 2 tr bx 3,6,10 2tr bx 3,6,8 2tr 3,6/3,6,7,8/3,6,7,8,10 GL
HandiGothamgambling: I like the Whirlaway horses, and I'm throwing in Motion's colt. $2 TB 1,6,8,9 $2 SB 1,6,8,9 $1 SPW 6,9/6,9/1,8/1,8
We are officially on HG 175.
Whacky, Thanks for the inquiry about the Gotham. It's been work that's really kept me busy, after 3 years of doing nothing I'm back in the saddle as it were. The Gotham, Back in the day I put alot of emphesis on the race as a prep.....now not so much. The race impresses upon me the fact that most of these have established a kind of "pecking order", I believe the class and ability of many shows already. That said I'll be watching 4 horses in here. The reason for these 4 is I believe they haven't shown all they have yet, there is room for improvement IMO. Yawanna Twist....Only has won 2 sprint races, but has beaten decent horses and has a big distance upside. The 2 slot should play to him, he can go or let I Got Even and Wow Wow Wow fight it out, make his move at the far turn and scoop em up. Three Day Rush....Pletchers second/third string but has run well and as I said these have kind of leveled off, except for Awesome Act, who we don't know as much about on the Dirt, I feel I can get a good gauge on what these horses can and can't do. Plus I like the PLetcher/ Jara combo Turf Melody.....another with upside potential, I watched the La Comte....the remark in the form was true, he was rank on the inside, but noww he's outside and picks up Dominguez, he'll get the trip, whether he fires? we'll see Awesome Act....Well if he runs on the dirt like he does on the turf he'll do well. Very athletic type. Bred to go 1 1/4m, so this is a tightener race, a lets see where we are race. Even if he could win, I doubt they have him cranked up enough to do so. Which is why I'm watching him.....with May first in mind, he runs well it speaks volumes for down the road. So who do I like? Well it's as I wrote them down, I'm giving the sprint only winner a leg up on these, there's no killers in here and Awesome Act probably isn't fully cranked....besides Yawanna Twist isn't nominated for the Derby....people will layoff as a consequence, better price. As to second third and such anyone of the othjer three will do, I'm tending to lean to Turf Melody, then Three Day Rush and Awesome Act. Which I guess I should post what I like in the HG I don't have a strong opinion, I watch the early races more than I bety them.....they're my preps for the Derby so to speak. But I'll take a stab 15.00 exacta Box Yawanna Twist, Three Day Rush, Turf Melody. 10.00 win Yawanna Twist. "C" Was the track drying out that day? I still believe the fillies ran slower because they are slower. Mike A