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Quick Preakness Thoughts
You don't need me to tell you that CALIFORNIA CHROME is the horse to beat and the most-likely winner of tomorrow's Preakness Stakes at Pimlico.
Still, I am interested to see how SOCIAL INCLUSION does in the second leg of the Triple Crown.
The speedy colt faces a tall task, but I think he has a tremendous amount of natural ability. He showed good speed in both starts at Gulfstream, but I was even more impressed with his Wood Memorial. The Derby prep was only his third lifetime start and he was keyed-up in the paddock and post parade. Then, he had to hustle from a tough outside post to gain his usual forward position. I think Luis Contreras moved a bit prematurely when he tried to break things wide open at the three-eighths pole, and Social Inclusion was run down by both Wicked Strong and Samratt, two colts that weren't disgraced at Churchill Downs.
All in all, it was a good effort for such a lightly-raced performer.
While a major part of me thinks a race like the Preakness is too much, too soon, and Social Inclusion missed his most recent engagement at Gulfstream two weeks ago due to a foot problem, I think he may have the most upside of any horse in the Preakness. I picked him to win, but will need 6/1, at least, before I take a small stab to win on him.
Most of my Preakness play will surround the multi-race wagers. In those bets, 80% of my money goes to California Chrome and 20% to Social Inclusion.
Here's what my Pimlico Special/Dixie/Preakness Bet 3 looks like (in post position order):
Pimlico Special: Golden Lad/Revolutionary/Cat Burglar
Dixie: Hey Leroy/Chamois/Charming Kitten (I may need to alter in case of scratches)
Preakness: California Chrome (A), Social Inclusion (B)
There was one other horse that I really liked, and just like last year at the Formblog Convention, TAP unveiled a grey bullet maiden winner who then promptly disappeared. Dan Il;man, have you heard anything about Zaikov from last year and Anchor Down from this year? Zaikov was working and made a return, but I have seen nothing since.
It appears Todd Pletcher just can't get him sound. ZAIKOV was targeted for the Hal's Hope and the Gulfstream Park Sprint, but hasn't worked since January 13.
ANCHOR DOWN was sidelined with a shin problem in mid-March and was sent to the farm.
If possible, could you post lifetime pps for Dancer's Image and Mom's Command.
I don't have Dancer's Image. You can find Mom's Command below.
*The links to the previous blogs (and blog comments) are listed below:
You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman
Check out the Friday and Saturday Pimlico graded stakes analysis and late Pick 4 videos here.
Congrats to Carl C. for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling race.
Rick M's scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.
On tab 2 you will see each HG Race we've held and they are color coded to denote if the race was run on Turf, Dirt or Poly.
We'll go with the Preakness for this week's HandiGambling event.
Here are the betting options for HG:
A) Pimlico Special/Preakness Double
B) Special/Dixie/Preakness Pick 3
C) Preakness Stakes.
PAST PERFORMANCES FOR THE PREAKNESS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to streamline all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...
With so many new people attending Dan's Formblog we thought it would be a good time to update the Handigambling Guidelines and Rules as we go forward in 2014.
Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
- Please start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to better recognize and find your entry.
- You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose and that is available for that HG race.
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
- Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF THE POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST sign yourself at the end (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to recognize you .
- (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.
- Separate your analysis from the wager and use the horses # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.
-In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.
- The winner will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan"
As an example :
The speed in this race goes to horses # 1, 4 ,6 ..Ennie , Meenie, and Mo
Since it's a sprint I don't see any closers catching them.. like # 9 Miney.
I think trainer Groucho with the #6 Mo has the best stats in this condition, route to sprint.. just a gut feeling at large odds ML 20-1
50$ Ex box 1-6
A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS APPRECIATED !
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL).
|MOM'S COMMAND.pdf||60.91 KB|
|Copy of Formblog Mamie Eisenhower 5-9-14.xls||72.5 KB|
I see DANZA is out of the Belmont. I think he was done after that 23 point jump in the Arkansas Derby. To his credit, he did run 3rd in the Ky Derby, but that's all he had. I'm glad that they are giving him a rest. Annie
JJ yes Davidowitz posted on the blog from time to time. it wasn't that many posts, maybe a handful if I recall. can't remember if it was after Lil'Chok won the handicapping championship. but he was here, then suddenly for whatever reason he disappeared. Hot 'N' Nasty
Sharpie; Can’t help you here with this whole “bounce-thing”. I don’t believe in it. Never have. To quote the great Yukon Cornelius… “Bumbles bounce”. Now I do believe that, because I saw the Abominable after he fell into the crevasse with Rudolph and Hermey… but horses? Nope. Later gator vs
Okie, Well that's still not very clear. You were asking about the 2nd and 3rd finishers being bounce candidates. Well, in this year's Derby, the 2nd place horse, the other CC whose name must not be mentioned had gone up 6 points and 3rd place finisher, Danza, had gone up that awful 23 points, so interpret that however you like. :) Annie
Okie, Now I'm confused. I thought you were wondering if the finish could be predicted in a horse's next race by using the BSFs, other than for the Derby. When it comes to the Derby, my research showed unequivocably that 8 or 9 points is NOT too much. Just not more than that, up or down. I don't know why this is. It just is. Is it bouncing, I don't know. But, as I showed with RIDE ON CURLIN, the other races are not predictable at all. Speaking of ROC, I see Rosario is sticking with TONALIST for the Belmont. Maybe because the Belmont winner doesn't come from well back? But, ROC get JV, so neither he nor his trainer is complaining. :) Annie
Sharpie - let me think about it and I'll try to come up with some answers to your questions if I can . My head is ready to explode over not being able to read the articles right now. JJ
Annie, JJ, Van Savant Each of us may have been thinking of a different scenario regarding my post on BSF's. Which is good, cause some times I tend to look down tunnel vision......:) Let's take another look at my idea and maybe this time I can make it a little clearer. I'm not trying to project a future BSF. Far from it. My interpretation of the 8 or 9 point rise in BSF's for the Derby is that the originator of that stat thought the horse had already run it's best race and may have peaked prior to the Derby. Pletcher and Baffert do it all the time.....:) Quinn and Beyer as well as others, have written about the bounce theory. My interpretation of whomever came up with this Derby 8 or 9 point thing was thinking bounce or that the horse had already run it's race. I can't remember anyone ever talking about the bounce theory and talking about any other horse other than the winner. What if:.....the horse that ran 2nd or 3rd also increased their Beyer by 8 or 9 points or more? Are they not a candidate for the bounce theory too? Who says that only winners bounce? Isn't it possible that a 2nd or 3rd place finisher might regress next out too? As a kid we all remember playing inside the box. It becomes more complicated whenever we think and play outside the box. Okiesharp
Speaking of the jockey Borel and those who would bet a horse just because he is the rider. A little success (two Derby wins and rider of Rachel Alex) is a dangerous thing. He is no Shoemaker. Ray
Great ! Now I not only can't comment but I can't even READ the articles I've paid for. I guess I'll have to go somewhere that I'm not a paying customer to read why Danza is out or any other @#$$ing thing I want to know about !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Oh well it is what it is . I was allowed to post at drf until we re-upped. It took a few days for drf to ban me everywhere on the site except Formblog :( Thanks Dan :) Don't get me wrong ,other than the PPs, Formblog is the best thing going at drf . I would like to be able to comment other places at drf on occasion for my money . The touts & snake-oil salesman at drf don't understand that if I pay my money I want full access . Formbloggers know that I can be abrasive , harsh or whatever . I'm certainly no worse than the average "tweeter" on the rest of the drf site. I see the snake-oil peddler Davidowitz was defending Andy . According to the carnival pitchman, Andy is "selfless" ( look that up in the dictionary if you want a good laugh ) and all players "owe" Andy something. Andy gets paid every time a player buys a form . Players owe him nothing ! They owe Davidowitz less than nothing . He complains that posters don't spell Andy's name right :) Correct me if I'm wrong VQ ,but didn't Davidowitz post at Formblog after Lil'Chok won the NHC ? Didn't he want to take credit for Lil'Chok's win ? Didn't he spell his name wrong ? Did he come back the next year to take credit for Lil'Chok's 497th place finish ? Did he mention any of the players using his snake-oil that finished in the bottom 490 guys ? No he didn't . He offered free snake-oil for a month . ( Give the people free crack maybe some of them will get hooked ? : ) JJ