05/16/2014 5:36PM

Quick Preakness Thoughts

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You don't need me to tell you that CALIFORNIA CHROME is the horse to beat and the most-likely winner of tomorrow's Preakness Stakes at Pimlico.

Still, I am interested to see how SOCIAL INCLUSION does in the second leg of the Triple Crown.

The speedy colt faces a tall task, but I think he has a tremendous amount of natural ability. He showed good speed in both starts at Gulfstream, but I was even more impressed with his Wood Memorial. The Derby prep was only his third lifetime start and he was keyed-up in the paddock and post parade. Then, he had to hustle from a tough outside post to gain his usual forward position. I think Luis Contreras moved a bit prematurely when he tried to break things wide open at the three-eighths pole, and Social Inclusion was run down by both Wicked Strong and Samratt, two colts that weren't disgraced at Churchill Downs.

All in all, it was a good effort for such a lightly-raced performer.

While a major part of me thinks a race like the Preakness is too much, too soon, and Social Inclusion missed his most recent engagement at Gulfstream two weeks ago due to a foot problem, I think he may have the most upside of any horse in the Preakness. I picked him to win, but will need 6/1, at least, before I take a small stab to win on him.

Most of my Preakness play will surround the multi-race wagers. In those bets, 80% of my money goes to California Chrome and 20% to Social Inclusion.

Here's what my Pimlico Special/Dixie/Preakness Bet 3 looks like (in post position order):

Pimlico Special:  Golden Lad/Revolutionary/Cat Burglar

Dixie:  Hey Leroy/Chamois/Charming Kitten (I may need to alter in case of scratches)

Preakness:  California Chrome (A), Social Inclusion (B)

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There was one other horse that I really liked, and just like last year at the Formblog Convention, TAP unveiled a grey bullet maiden winner who then promptly disappeared. Dan Il;man, have you heard anything about Zaikov from last year and Anchor Down from this year? Zaikov was working and made a return, but I have seen nothing since.
Turnbackthealarm

It appears Todd Pletcher just can't get him sound. ZAIKOV was targeted for the Hal's Hope and the Gulfstream Park Sprint, but hasn't worked since January 13.

ANCHOR DOWN was sidelined with a shin problem in mid-March and was sent to the farm.

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Hi Dan,
If possible, could you post lifetime pps for Dancer's Image and Mom's Command.
Thanks
Don DiNatale

I don't have Dancer's Image. You can find Mom's Command below.

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*The links to the previous blogs (and blog comments) are listed below:

http://www.drf.com/blogs/lying-wait

http://www.drf.com/blogs/potential-price-plays-sunday

http://www.drf.com/blogs/unstoppable-untapable

http://www.drf.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-non-opinions

http://www.drf.com/blogs/davona-dale

http://www.drf.com/blogs/can-hudson-landing-still-go

http://www.drf.com/blogs/tricky-elkhorn

http://www.drf.com/blogs/hail-mary-claim

http://www.drf.com/blogs/grounding-hawk

http://www.drf.com/blogs/cat-burglar-creeping-upward

http://www.drf.com/blogs/3-year-old-filly-sprinter-watch

http://www.drf.com/blogs/tale-two-wins

http://www.drf.com/blogs/beatable-favorites

http://www.drf.com/blogs/baker-cooks-calder

http://www.drf.com/blogs/keeneland-baby

http://www.drf.com/blogs/derby-prep-thoughts

http://www.drf.com/blogs/fishing-opinions

http://www.drf.com/blogs/keeneland-its-spring-again

http://www.drf.com/blogs/sprinter-rise

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You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman

Check out the Friday and Saturday Pimlico graded stakes analysis and late Pick 4 videos here.

http://www.drf.com/events/black-eyed-susan-stakes-pimlico

http://www.drf.com/events/preakness-stakes

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Congrats to Carl C. for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling race.

Rick M's scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.

On tab 2 you will see each HG Race we've held and they are color coded to denote if the race was run on Turf, Dirt or Poly.

We'll go with the Preakness for this week's HandiGambling event.

Here are the betting options for HG:

A) Pimlico Special/Preakness Double

B) Special/Dixie/Preakness Pick 3

C) Preakness Stakes.

PAST PERFORMANCES FOR THE PREAKNESS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.

SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to streamline all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...

With so many new people attending Dan's Formblog we thought it would be a good time to update the Handigambling Guidelines and Rules as we go forward in 2014.

Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

HANDIGAMBLING:

-  Please start your post with  HG or HANDIGAMBLING to better recognize and find your entry.

-  You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose and that is available for that HG race.
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.

- Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF THE POST.  Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST sign yourself at the end (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to recognize you .

- (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes.  Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.

- Separate your analysis from the wager and use the horses # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.

-In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.

- The winner will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan"

As an example :

HG 2014
The speed in this race goes to  horses # 1, 4 ,6 ..Ennie , Meenie, and Mo
Since it's a sprint I don't see any closers catching them.. like # 9 Miney.
I think trainer Groucho with the #6 Mo has the best stats in this condition, route to sprint.. just a gut feeling at large odds ML 20-1

HG wager
50$ Ex box 1-6
total $100

Thanks Dan!

Harpo
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A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS APPRECIATED !
 
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.

ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL).

 

AttachmentSize
MOM'S COMMAND.pdf60.91 KB
Copy of Formblog Mamie Eisenhower 5-9-14.xls72.5 KB
HGPREAK.pdf178.57 KB