03/06/2008 1:18PM

Quick Post Mortem

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Deadinthepicksix
With only one winner paying more than $9.00, and that one a Dutrow firster who was probably a much shorter price in the blind, Wednesday's big pick six at Aqueduct might look easy in retrospect, with over 100 winners at $6610 apiece. Not for me. Even though I was technically alive into the penultimate leg, I was virtually eliminated 1:11.32 into the sequence when Dadoway romped by 5 1/4 lengths at 7-2.

Maybe you're not supposed to be stubborn in pools like Wednesday's, where bettors pumped $1.055 million into a $265k carryover, but I'll go to my grave being stubborn about horses like Dadoway. I'm sure he's a lovely and noble animal, but on paper he was an 0-for 9 stopper who had backed up down the stretch in every previous start. He had a couple of races that arguably made him the second fastest horse in the race, but there seemed several more inviting possibilities among more lightly-raced competitors. None of those ran a step and Dadoway cruised.

I wasted about a third of my money after jinxing myself to do so by writing about late scratches and pick sixes in the previous entry. A few minutes before post time, Its a Whopper, one of my "more interesting" A horses, was scratched, transferring all my tickets through him to the awful but must-use favorite, Ferdi's Prince, doubling me up on him. If what a poster wrote about multirace late scratches in Hong Kong is true -- they give you the shortest-priced horse that you don't already have instead of a duplicate through one that you do -- I would have picked up Dadoway. Though until the gate opened, I probably wouldn't have been too thrilled about that either.

Anyway, once Dadoway won as a "C," I was thinned down to a $108 backup ticket that went 3x1x2x1x3 the rest of the way, and crawled through the next three legs on my belly with boring favorites getting the job done. That left me singled to 0.75-to-1 Ghost Dancer in the feature, and had she won I probably would have been looking at three will-pays of $2k or less, but Ghost Dancer spared me the trouble by tiring on the lead in midstretch as second choice What's Your Point nailed her. What's Your Point hadn't even been my second choice, so I have nothing to complain about and entered the afternoon in the ledger as a losing day with a couple of bad opinions. My one conso paid a whopping $74.

Fast Wheels, the $15.60 winner of the finale, was probably more like 3-1 in the pick-six. It's hardly as if he was a killer, running even slower than the dreaded Dadoway, but was a must-use from a trainer who's 26 percent with firsters in an awful field. Even so, he was all out to win by a neck from First of Ten, who had been beaten 52 lengths in his two previous starts.

Congrats to those among you who had it. The payoff was nearly double the parlay, and it was a highly haveable sequence for those less stubborn than I.

C More than 1 year ago
Isn't possible that Daaher was never as good as he was hyped up to be? Let's face it, Midnight Lute was a spent horse going into the Cigar Mile, so his "Grade 1" victory there has to be looked at with some skepticism. Also, Forefathers was the second best horse in the Jerome. That gives you an idea about how good that field was. The more graded stakes they cram into the schedule, the more flashes in the pan we're going to see.
Some guy More than 1 year ago
Don't feel bad, you could've been like me and have FIVE TOP choices win in that Aqu pick-6 and had a sum total of four tickets and not hit it when Ghost Dancer stumbled out of the gate. The latter, singled on every ticket, got beat 1 1/4 lengths.
Wayne80 More than 1 year ago
Its amazing that with all the capital these guys have a horse like Daaher goes undiagnosed. Clearly something was going on earlier than last race.
ctfrombt More than 1 year ago
Steve and Kevroc, I'm curious as to why people want to compare a P6 carryover to a parlay of the six horses. The advantage of a carryover is to reduce the takeout and potentially turn the bet into a positive expectation play. Shouldn't the comparison be to the parlay adjusted to compensate for the ~15% takeout of the win bet?, six times. (Should be ~ 2.3x parlay price). This would then give the natural odds for the parlay. If this is less than the P6 payoff you have a good bet. Over time and many plays you will show a positive return.
Christine R. More than 1 year ago
Not even I...who so oftentimes can pull out a real "wisher" for the price could find value in Dad-o-way...I just shook my head and went on to the next. Congrats to the cashers...it wasnt me either Steve. Have the BEST time at FG! Christine
zarpo More than 1 year ago
Flip, The main reason the super up here pays a lot more than at US tracks is that the fields at Woodbine have usually 12-14 horses while fields down south are usually smaller especially in California. 14 horse field=24024 combos 10 horse field=5040 combos A huge difference.
Flip Dawson More than 1 year ago
Don't think I've FLIPPED out but playing at Sandy MyAnita gives us Eskimos up here in Canada some pleasure from the daily snow we get every day. Take this weekend--20-30 cm of snow coming to Toronto. My wife going to Florida. My group of racing friends (??)will be looking at the palm trees on the TV screens, and watching the races at SA and at GulfDream.(also Fairgrounds.)Some of my cronies bet every race at any and all tracks, while I look for ways not to bet. Author Albert G. Illich advised players to test their patience by going to the races for 3-4 days/nights in a row; taking a bankroll up, and making no bets whatsoever. I was able to do it easily, as I don't like to take money out of my wallet. A few drinks of milk, then NHL hockey at night, after I do my Pick 4 thing at SandyDunes.I am of firm belief that Canadians have the advantage when betting at MY Anita as Post time for Race 1 is at 3 PM our time.So, we are not rushed when building into the Pick 4. It's a tough life but somebody has to do it!!! By the way, there is no truth to the rumour that I am starting Eskimo Dog Racing up here in the snow. The powers-that-be would not consent to the drivers wearing cleats on their moccasins and did not want these cleats being switched at the last moment, and being named as NUMBER 2 CLEATS. Good luck to all on the weekend, and Steve--enjoy the FG pools!!
C More than 1 year ago
Arcstats, I'm behind you and I hope anyone else who wants this rule changed does the same. These blogs are a good way to get things going, but an article or two in the Form might get the attention of track management a lot quicker. David, I didn't play either P6 (SA or Aqu), so I'm not complaining about missing either one. However, this is a rule that should've been changed long ago. Have you ever held a P6 ticket with all 6 winners and did NOT get the 6-for-6 payout? I have. Another part of this rule is that when half of an entry scratches and runs for purse only, you get the favorite... if the other half of the entry wins, you better hope the favorite runs 2nd behind him, otherwise you're looking out the window.
art More than 1 year ago
To all P6 players... What's worse than a late gate scratch putting you on a bad favorite? ...Keeping the potential gate scratch in the race at 1/5! Happy retirement Daaher (“torn and injured ligaments in his right front ankle)! Art
kevroc More than 1 year ago
RE: Flip Dawson. The Big A P6 payout was good at 6600. I'm doing this crudely but take the payouts (9.00, 7.10, 3.80, 5.40, 6.20, 15.80). $2 win on $9 = $9 $9 win on $7.10 = $32 $32 win on $3.80 = 60.80 $60.80 win on $5.40 = 164.16 $164.16 win on 6.20 = 508.90 $508.90 win on 15.80 =(4000) Roughly 4k. and 15.80 on finale was a bit inflated (7/2 ML).