01/08/2010 5:03PM

Questions, pp's, Derby Futures

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Here are quick and dirty picks for some of Saturday's stakes races. 

Honestly, I don't have strong opinions on any of the major races.

Sugar Swirl:  Bold Union
Mr. Prospector:  Custom for Carlos
Old Hat:  Cuff Me

More importantly, who do you fancy this weekend?  I want to know.

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Dan
I'm doing a little research and need help, if possible. I would like to see the final trainer and jockey stats for the recently concluded Woodbine meet.  The Woodbine web site has some stats, but I'm interested in the data as presented in DRF when the meet is live(avg mutual payoffs, wins and %'s by turf, dirt, etc). I'm trying to decide on whether or not to make an assault on Woodbine the next time around.  Lastly, does DRF, maybe in Formulater, keep track of average Place payoffs by trainer and jockey(I'm a WP punter, so the place payoffs are important).  Thank you.
blackstone

Here's what I have for the Leading Trainers at Woodbine (4/4/09 - 12/6/09):

Turf:
1.  Roger Attfield - 19-67 (28% Wins, 50% ITM, $3.73 ROI)
2.  Malcolm Pierce - 14-78 (17% Wins, 41% ITM, $1.70 ROI)
3.  Mark Casse - 11-86 (12% Wins, 41% ITM, $1.58 ROI)
4.  Sid Attard - 9-48 (18% Wins, 47% ITM, $1.49 ROI)
5.  Ian Black - 8-37 (21% Wins, 51% ITM, $4.04 ROI)
5.  Brian Lynch - 8-27 (29% Wins, 48% ITM, $2.53 ROI)
7.  Mark Frostad - 7-58 (12% wins, 36% ITM, $1.32 ROI)
8.  Daniel Vella - 5-33 (15% wins, 39% ITM, $2.12 ROI)
9.  Josie Carroll - 4-34 (11% wins, 55% ITM, $0.99 ROI)
9.  Michael Keogh - 4-36 (11% wins, 30% ITM, $1.36 ROI)
9.  Analisa Delmas - 4-36 (11% wins, 36% ITM, $1.07 ROI)
9.  Steven Asmussen - 4-21 (19% wins, 47% ITM, $1.76 ROI)
9.  Michael De Paulo - 4-28 (14% wins, 32% ITM, $2.01 ROI)

Polytrack:
1.  Mark Casse - 60-367 (16% wins, 46% ITM, $1.73 ROI)
2.  Robert Tiller - 49-318 (15% wins, 48% ITM, $1.28 ROI)
3.  Steven Asmussen - 48-261 (18% wins, 46% ITM, $1.55 ROI)
4.  Sid Attard - 45-244 (18% wins, 45% ITM, $2.18 ROI)
4.  Reade Baker - 45-289 (15% wins, 43% ITM, $1.55 ROI)
6.  Terry Jordan - 42-89 (47% wins, 71% ITM, $2.80 ROI)
7.  Scott Fairlie - 41-291 (14% wins, 44% ITM, $1.38 ROI)
7.  Nicholas Gonzalez - 41-235 (17% wins, 44% ITM, $2.06 ROI)
9.  Roger Attfield - 33-133 (24% wins, 51% ITM, $2.56 ROI)
10. Josie Carroll - 28-164 (17% wins, 53% ITM, $1.61 ROI)

I don't have access to average place prices.

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dan,  what is the status of the late george washington's only offspring, a filly out of flawlessly, with italian connections i believe?  also, can you supply the pps of the outstanding sprinter rise jim? thank you.
jform

The bay filly, foaled on February 4, 2008 in Ireland, sold for 280,000 Euros (about $410,000) that November in Ireland.  She was then purchased for 320,000 guineas (about $535,000) at the Tattersalls yearling auction in October of 2009. 
Still unnamed, she is owned by Julie Wood and trained by Richard Hannon in England.

Here's what I have for Rise Jim:

Download RiseJim

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Dan, I was hoping to see a comparison of lifetime or just 3 year old pps for Rachel Alexandra and Big Brown.  I think their respective 3 year old seasons are somewhat similar, although Big Brown won the Kentucky Derby and ran in all 3 legs of the triple crown, and was pointed towards the Breeders' Cup, while Rachel was pointed towards races she could win.
wilson

Here are their lifetime past performances:

Download Big Brown

Download Rachel Alexandra

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Dan,
I'm doing figures for the infrequently raced 7.5f on dirt/synthetic. May I have the 3-year best times from Bel, DeD, Hol, and any other tracks (CD?) that may race this distance?
Thank you.
TejanoRun

AP (polytrack):  1:29.31
Aqu:  1:28.83
AsD:  1:31.60
Bel:  1:27.62
CD:  1:28.44
DeD:  1:32.76
GP:  1:27.75
Hol:  1:26.78
Lrl:  1:31.78
Rui:  1:31.58


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Dan, how about the highest Beyers at the speedy distance of 6 furlongs?
Captain Bodgit


Best Six-Furlong Beyers (1992-2010):

1.  Artax - 124 (1999 Breeders' Cup Sprint)
2.  Kona Gold - 123 (1999 Breeders' Cup Sprint)
2.  Prospect Bay - 123 (1996 A Phenomenon)
2.  Artax (2) - 123 (1999 Forest Hills)
5.  Swept Overboard - 122 (2001 Ancient Title)
6.  Imtoocool - 121 (1995 Allowance 'n3x')
6.  Kelly Kip - 121 (1998 Bold Ruler)
6.  Shake You Down - 121 (2003 Smile Sprint)
9.  Kelly Kip (2) - 120 (1999 Bold Ruler)
9.  Intidab - 120 (1999 A Phenomenon)
9.  Lexicon - 120 (1999 Ancient Title)
9.  Cajun Beat - 120 (1999 Breeders' Cup Sprint)
9.  Xtra Heat - 120 (2001 Sweet n Sassy)
14. Shuttleman - 119 (1992 Coaltown)
14. Bordonaro - 119 (2006 Ancient Title)
14. Bonapaw - 119 (2001 Count Fleet Sprint)
14. Kelly Kip (3) - 119 (1998 De Francis Memorial)
14. Kona Gold (2) - 119 (2001 Bing Crosby)
14. Lord Carson - 119 (1995 Kentucky Cup)
14. Successful Appeal - 119 (1999 Kentucky)
14. Fabulous Strike - 119 (2006 Christmas)
14. Reraise - 119 (1998 Kentucky Cup Sprint)
14. Squirtle Squirt - 119 (2001 Breeders' Cup Sprint)

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Dan
 Everytime someone asks for top beyers one name always pops up at or near the top.Ghostzapper
 Can you you post his pp's
 thanks
garyw

Here they are:

Download Ghostzapper

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If  you  could  package  these under  Ruffian's  Foes , I  would  be  greatly  appreciative :  EQUAL CHANGE, SWEET OLD GAL, SUN AND SNOW, SOMETHING REGAL, GALLANT TRIAL, AUNT JIN, SIR IVOR'S SORROW, CHANNELETTE, LAUGHING BRIDGE  and  HOT  AND  NASTY.  I  think  that  Rachel  beat  more  Grade I  winners  than  Ruffian.
Thanks  again  for  all  you  do  and  keep  up  the  good  work.
C.Warner

Unfortunately, the DRF system I use doesn't go back that far except for extraordinary cases like Ruffian.  I'm unable to access those pp's.

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One of the top rivalries in the sixties was between the mighty Kelso and Gun Bow.  Do you think it would be possible to post their PP's.  Thanks in advance and all the best for the coming year.
LAZMANNICK

Here they are:

Download Gun Bow

Download Kelso

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Dan,
I was thinking about the TSA body scanners the other day, in light of the underwear bomber. I was wondering if you knew whether or not full body scanners were used in the buying and selling of thoroughbreds.
chicago gerry

No full body scanners, but most of the big buyers have boatloads of vets armed with x-ray machines looking for any kind of physical issue.

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Here are the lastest Kentucky Derby Future Odds from Lucky's (dated 1/5/10):

Download DerbyFutures

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Enjoy the weekend.

Dan

Stephen L Taylor More than 1 year ago
HG update: Scratch 1,3 I'll take a 50 Cent Super-9,10 with 6,7,9,10,11,13 in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th spots ($60) Also with the scratches I'll take a $20 exacta 10/9 and $5 exactas 9/10, 10/6, 10/7 and 10/13
ilovemesomeme More than 1 year ago
Van Savant I prefer to be inebriated by my exuberance of throwing Guinness down my verbosity, but to each their own. Everyone buy their ladies a Rerun adoption tshirt on ebay. Donate and make her wear something that links her to what she yells at you about. AWESOME. Zapper was pretty awesome, but I prefer tizcurlin. Either or, beyers dont make you have heart attacks, game horses do. Whats the HG? I need some street cred.
ilovemesomeme More than 1 year ago
Hi there, One of these days a Cali horse is going to be the "the one" come May. What I've seen as a KY bred racenut so far: Lucky- might be the real deal, or might be Pioneer of the Nile, either way no money to be made in futures American Lion- Looks to have a better heart at 3 than his bros and looks like a dirt horse, wicked Tiz Chrome- Wow I like, but I also have a soft spot for these by Tiz a bada$$. Looks really really talented. No realllly! Blind luck- has gotten really good and is a good story considering pedigree. EXPLOSIVE And lastly off the Derby trail, to the queen of the illblog Annie. St. Trinians has almost as ugly a paddle as your beloved Son of Candy. BUT MUCH MORE RAPIDO ON THE WEEDS! Bet the house. I am also happy to see derby preps on national tv. And those are PRACTICE, not the game, but PRACTICE! Are we talkin about the game or PRACTICE, PRACTICE? Yes I did, I LOVE ME SOME ME
John C. More than 1 year ago
James Mc., I'll echo your comment that we would never see a Triple Crown winner race as a 4YO- heck, we rarely even get to see merely decent three year olds race as 4YO's: in recent years, we never got to see the full potential of Pioneerof The Nile, Proud Spell, Dunkirk, Sea The Stars, Raven's Pass, Henry the Navigator, Zarkava, Bernardini, etc. I'll go further- this is a very safe prediction: we will NEVER see another Triple Crown winner (and not because Pimlico will vanish in the next decade). The unprecedented way of treating young horses as if they were made of fragile porcelain has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The bones of a 2YO REQUIRE the stimulation of intense exercise/ regular racing in order to grow and develop properly for the intensity of racing classic distances- the same is true for other mammals i.e. humans. We need weight-bearing exercise of a certain intensity and regularity to stimulate the development of strong bones and muscles. Just giving 2YO's a few preps and mostly workouts is INSUFFICIENT in general for the "grueling" 5-week Triple Crown series. Well prepared racehorses of the past would handle the Triple Crown races AND a race or two BETWEEN the Triple Crown races! People who argue that we should race 2YO's LESS are misinformed or overly-sensitive to racing horses. These would be the same people who want the Triple Crown series CHANGED/ stretched out over the course of the spring and summer. I guess then we could have a bunch of ordinary Triple Crown winners instead of the superhorses who have accomplished this nearly impossible feat. The daunting Triple Crown feat is not broken and does not need to be fixed. What is broken is the myriad problems caused by owners, breeders, and trainers that have led to a less sound/stable breed of thoroughbred that is being trained for four or FIVE big races per year. The prospect that we are going to see Rachel Alexandra (and Summer Bird) race as a 4YO is so beyond the pale, so extraordinary, so unbelievably anomalous by today's "race to breed" standard and today's "over-insure and retire" any horse who shows promise (before his/her "pitch-count" gets too high!) ethic that fans and racetracks should go absolutely berserk to show their appreciation and to encourage more of the same.
Annie More than 1 year ago
I was happy to see the news that NBC/USA will televise 6 of the Derby Preps this year. ESPN simply doesn't give a rat's you know what about horseracing and I am happy to see it out of their hands. :) Annie
blackstone More than 1 year ago
Ned Daly I'm sure you'll get a few answers to your question about GP's 9th. The huge factor which changed everything was that it was taken off the turf. I had handicapped it for the turf, and in fact loved one of the horses at 12-1 (Star Plus), but once switched to dirt with a half-dozen scratches, I just skipped the race. In my case, I've almost never had any luck with late surface changes, so those races become tosses. In hindsight, Mambo Meister and Kiss the Kid, and maybe Dry Martini, looked very strong, but to me, chaos often seems to rule in those situations and someone just handles the surface better. When it happens, I'm gone.
p ensign More than 1 year ago
"The 9th confused me. I could not and still cannot see Duke of Mischief winning. I had my top three finish 2,3,4. D of M dropped from 20/1 ML to 6/1 post time. What were the others seeing that I missed? Thanks in advance." 1. taken off turf, 8 horses ran, 7 horses scratched. 2. outside stalking or closing was the place to be. 3. horse had won an off the turfer at the distance in May. 4. Coa had two wins with horse, one was a $250k stakes race. 5. sharp trainer saw horse go off form, gave him a break, got lucky with rain out in return... 6. classy, versatile animal- earned $300k+ while going 3/8 at 3 yrs old, with wins on dry, wet and grass surfaces. what I want to know is how did the 10 not win the last race. I had a sizable double, one way, to Leparoux in the finale, and I watched the race over a couple of times but never saw the 2 go past!?!? would like to see the photo
Ned Daly More than 1 year ago
Formbloggers (This somehow got put at the end of the previous thread.) Anybody willing to help educate me? I have been paying attention to Gulfstream in anticipation of a trip to FL at the end of the month. Paper handicapping as many as I have time for and reviewing all the charts. Today (yesterday)(Sunday 1/10) I looked at the 6th and the 9th. Felt OK about how I saw the 6th. The 9th confused me. I could not and still cannot see Duke of Mischief winning. I had my top three finish 2,3,4. D of M dropped from 20/1 ML to 6/1 post time. What were the others seeing that I missed? Thanks in advance. If I can help anybody when I go (Jan 30/31 with a possible trip to Palm Meadows one of those mornings), just let me know.
blackstone More than 1 year ago
John C I agree with 95% (maybe 98%) of your well-thought out, and articulated post. But, I do think there will be a TC winner, and sooner rather than later. I also think there will be 300 game winners in baseball, in spite of the now frequent lament by sportswriters that the specialization of pitchers, and the resulting "babying" of starters will eliminate the possibility. We all look at the current enviornment and assume things will remain as they are, or get worse. I just don't buy it. Things change-they always change, obviously. I think in horses someone will come along with that special horse, with special connections, that will beat the odds and accomplish what most can only dream about. In baseball, pitchers are pitching longer all the time, assuming good health. I see no reason why some won't stand out, including a few who are currently playing, and both be effective enough and last long enough to get it done. Of course, ten years ago I also thought the SF Giants would win a World Series in my lifetime (also sooner rather than later), but I'm now beginning to wonder. Anyway, a very strong post!
blackstone More than 1 year ago
Kayla Stra As Whacky has done with Chantal, it's time to back off Kayla for a while. Other than a couple of heavy chalks (a 3-5 and a 6-5), she's just not bringing anything home. A few 2nds, but no winners with prices. I'll wait until she goes on anothner hot streak, if she can, and try to time it right. baltimore brian-you must be one happy football fan! One big win down, three to go, right?