10/02/2009 4:36PM

Questions to Ponder, Cal Cup Beyer Pars, Breeding Stats

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Some of racing's biggest stars will be on display this weekend at Belmont Park, but is there any money to be made betting them?  These and other questions need to be answered.

Music Note seems to lay over the field in the sixth race on Saturday, the Grade 1 Beldame at 1 1/8 miles.  After whipping the classy sprinters Indian Blessing and Informed Decision while playing their game in the seven-furlong Ballerina at Saratoga, shouldn't Music Note have no trouble with Unbridled Belle and Copper State over her preferred trip?

Morning Line on Music Note:  2-5

Isn't it hard to find a hole in Gio Ponti?  He's won his last four starts, all in Grade 1 competition, at distances between 1 mile and 11 furlongs over all sorts of footing.  If the course comes up wet, doesn't it give him an advantage over the game Presious Passion, a confirmed front-runner that likes to hear his feet rattle on harder surfaces? 

Morning Line on Gio Ponti:  6-5

Isn't Summer Bird better equipped to handle 1 1/4 miles than Quality Road?  What has Summer Bird done in his last few races to make you think he'll throw in a clunker now?

Morning Line on Summer Bird:  2-1

I have to admit that I don't have a very strong feeling in the Vosburgh.  I do like Fabulous Strike better than Munnings.  From a tactical standpoint, I'm expecting a repeat of the Vanderbilt where Fabulous Strike stalks the speedy Go Go Shoot from the outside before wearing him down.  But Fabulous Strike is even-money on the line.  Do you play Exactas keying Fabulous Strike while eliminating Munnings? 

If the turf is soft on Saturday, doesn't that give a slight edge to defending champion Dynaforce in the Flower Bowl?  She seems to really bring her 'A' game over wet turf while her firm performances are less than stellar.  The key to this race may be the pace.  Leamington, Dynaforce, and Criticism all have speed, and I'm interesting to see how Kent D. plays things with Dynaforce.  Does he track Leamington from the outside?  If he does, he may inherit the lead at some point, but still will likely have to fend off Criticism and then the closers.  Does he let Leamington and Criticism go, try to tuck into the pocket on the inside, hope to save ground, and get the jump on the late-kickers turning for home?  It's a fascinating race.  I'm expecting Beauty O' Gwaun to scratch, but don't count her out if she does play as she likes soft ground, adds blinkers and Lasix, and turns back to a comfortable distance.  Along with Dynaforce and Beauty O' Gwaun, I'd also strongly consider Moneycantbuymelove, a European with good recent form. 

So, how will you bet these races?  Pick 6 singling Music Note and perhaps Gio Ponti and Summer Bird?  Exactas?  Guaranteed $500,000 Pick Four? 

I want to know.

How do you rate the East Coast invaders in the Norfolk and Oak Leaf at Santa Anita on Sunday?  Lookin At Lucky looks like the real deal for Baffert, but Jung Man Scott looked really good beating New York-bred maidens sprinting on the turf two back, and was game for second in the Grade 3 With Anticipation going this distance last time out.  The lack of synthetic experience is a concern, and Jung Man Scott's only workout over the surface went in 1:17.20 for six furlongs, the slowest of 23 at the distance on September 25.  

Bickersons may be the main speed in the Oak Leaf for juvenile guru Kelly Breen, and she faced a couple of quality fillies in Hot Dixie Chick and Beautician in the Spinaway?  I think she has some ability, but can she carry her speed this distance over an unfamiliar surface?  You have to demand value to find out. Pure Class, Softly Singing, and Always a Princess look most likely to capitalize if Bickersons starts yearning for home.

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Dan
Hi..what about using a different blog (Say Dan #2 HG) or something like that for all the HG wagering/results/past performances/etc...?
Mickey


I don't think the higher-ups will give me the space, and I'm not savvy enough to figure out a threading system..

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Dan, are there any stats available that show how many mares these horses are actually covering and what kind of stud fees that are actually getting? I'm sure some are doing okay (Smarty Jones, Afleet alex) but what about a  horse like Student Council? I'd wager he'd have to eat a bottle of Viagra a day to knock up enough mares to cover what he could have made on track.......
cayman01

I'm not sure if this is what you're looking for, but The Jockey Club produces a "Report on Mares Bred" each year.  Here's the link as well as another link for different statistics:

http://jockeyclub.com/information.asp?reportrequest=RMB

http://jockeyclub.com/information.asp?reportrequest=LF&reportyear=2008

According to the list, A.P. Indy bred 111 mares in 2008 while Daaher bred seven.

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Mr. Illman,
Could be possibly get Beyer averages/year by years for the California Cup Races since they are to be run this Saturday?
Thanks.
eternal_arcadia

California Cup Classic:

1992:  June's Reward - 102
1993:  Best Pal - 102
1994:  College Town - 102
1995:  Luthier Fever - 106
1996:  Megan's Interco - 109
1997:  Awesome Daze - 97
1998:  Budroyale - 105
1999:  Bagshot - 106
2000:  Sky Jack - 110
2001:  Irisheyesareflying - 105
2002:  Calkins Road - 93
2003:  Tizbud - 101
2004:  Cozy Guy - 108
2005:  McCann's Mojave - 104
2006:  Texcess - 103
2007:  Bold Chieftain - 96
2008:  Mr. Chairman - 96

Beyer average:  102.64

California Cup Mile:

1992:  Blaze O' Brien - 103
1993:  Megan's Interco - 106
1994:  Blaze O' Brien - 100
1995:  Megan's Interco - 106
1996:  Half Mamoon - 104
1997:  Gastown - 100
1998:  Indiahoma - 96
1999:  Native Desert - 101
2000:  Road To Slew - 100
2001:  Native Desert - 99
2002:  Turkish Prize - 101
2003:  Lennyfromalibu - 100
2004:  A to the Z - 103
2005:  Drake's Victory - 99
2006:  Epic Power - 95
2007:  Unusual Suspect - 95
2008:  Swift Winds - 102

Beyer average:  100.58

California Cup Distaff:

1992:  Bel's Starlet - 100
1993:  Miss L Attack - 99
1994:  Nannetta - 88
1995:  Klassy Kim - 105
1996:  Cat's Cradle - 99
1997:  Seattle Carla - 95
1998:  Bountiful Dreamer - 94
1999:  Chichim - 94
2000:  Chichim - 93
2001:  Jeweled Pirate - 95
2002:  Lil Sister Stich - 90
2003:  Blind Ambition - 97
2004:  Our Mango - 94
2005:  Tempting Date - 93
2006:  River's Prayer - 93
2007:  Gentle Charmer - 93
2008:  Lightmyfirebaby  - 94

Beyer average:  95.05

California Cup Matron:

1992:  Lovely Habit - 100
1993:  Sensational Eyes - 103
1994:  Glass Ceiling - 89
1995:  Yearly Tour - 100
1996:  Belle's Flag - 93
1997:  Fun In Excess - 91
1998:  Belle's Flag - 102
1999:  Feverish - 97
2000:  Queenie Belle - 105
2001:  Cee Dreams - 96
2002:  Super High - 93
2003:  Royally Chosen - 97
2004:  Dream of Summer - 103
2005:  Dream of Summer - 99
2006:  Somethinaboutlaura - 89
2007:  Romance Is Diane - 99
2008:  Famous Ruby - 77

Beyer average:  96.05

California Cup Sprint:

1992:  Answer Do - 108
1993:  Softshoe Sure Shot - 107
1994:  Uncaged Fury - 98
1995:  Wild Gold - 110
1996:  Testimony - 105
1997:  Red - 110
1998:  Big Jag - 103
1999:  Love That Red - 114
2000:  Full Moon Madness - 113
2001:  Ceeband - 111
2002:  Unlimited Value - 106
2003:  Green Team - 110
2004:  Areyoutalkintome - 108
2005:  Jet West - 103
2006:  Da Stoops - 102
2007:  Bilo - 96
2008:  Tribesman  - 103

Beyer average:  106.29

California Cup Juvenile:

1992:  Boating Pleasure - 82
1993:  Flying Sensation - 93
1994:  Fandarel Dancer - 89
1995:  Cavonnier - 91
1996:  Carmen's Baby - 81
1997:  Ex MarksThe Cop - 93
1998:  Sunday Stroll - 77
1999:  Spacelink - 89
2000:  Proud Tower - 105
2001:  Yougottawanna - 91
2002:  Crackup - 82
2003:  He's The Rage - 77
2004:  Texcess - 88
2005:  Brite Maneuvers - 80
2006:  Freesgood - 75
2007:  Sierra Sunset - 86
2008:  Lucky Primo - 77

Beyer average:  85.64

California Cup Juvenile Fillies:

1992:  Incindress - 82
1993:  Private Persuasion - 78
1994:  Fabulouspersuasion - 81
1995:  Wheatly Special - 89
1996:  Rexy Sexy - 81
1997:  Career Collection - 93
1998:  Lacquaria - 96
1999:  Cover Gal - 77
2000:  Euro Empire - 84
2001:  Lady George - 74
2002:  Summer Wind Dancer - 76
2003:  House of Fortune - 91
2004:  Lady Truffles - 76
2005:  Bai and Bai - 73
2006:  Romance is Diane - 73
2007:  Runforthemoneybaby - 81
2008:  Saucey Evening - 79

Beyer average:  81.41

California Cup Distance:

1992:  Southern Truce - 98
1993:  Mountains of Lune - 82
1994:  Melrose Wine - 90
1995:  Hillwalker - 84
1996:  Miss Lady Bug - 95
1997:  Not Run
1998:  Social Noel - 85
1999:  Lazy Slusan - 80
2000:  Shivareen Sky - 85
2001:  Lil Sister Stich - 85
2002:  Nicole's Pursuit - 87
2003:  Moscow Burning - 93
2004:  Test the Waters - 93
2005:  Moscow Burning - 93
2006:  Special Heather - 86
2007:  Imagine - 92
2008:  Distant Victory - 86

Beyer average:  88.37

California Cup Starter:

1992:  His Legacy - 95
1993:  Whisk Spree - 94
1994:  His Legacy - 94
1995:  Alki Joe - 93
1996:  Reality Changes - 97
1997:  Ready Eddie - 95
1998:  Count Con - 88
1999:  J. R. Holmes - 87
2000:  White Cloud - 93
2001:  As We Know It - 96
2002:  Noble Kinsman - 90
2003:  Fade to Blue - 88
2004:  Ring of Friendship - 89
2005:  Time to Honor - 91
2006:  Phar to Win - 84
2007:  Lil Mitch - 89
2008:  Guts - 80

Beyer average:  90.76

California Cup Starter Sprint:

1997:  Native Russian - 94
1998:  Slews Royal Son - 97
1999:  Irrelevant - 94
2000:  Heightenedawareness - 99
2001:  Rio Oro - 107
2002:  Giovannetti - 99
2003:  Coconut Mango - 91
2004:  Ata Olympio - 98
2005:  Bordonaro - 111
2006:  Wind Water - 92
2007:  Switzerland - 96
2008:  Kool Comic - 100

Beyer average:  98.16

Hope this helps.

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Enjoy the great racing, and I'm looking forward to meeting some of you at Woodbine on Sunday.

Cheers,

Dan