04/20/2010 7:30PM

Questions, Comments, PP's, etc.

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Falling way behind on my workload so I've dedicated this blog to questions, comments, and pp requests and will dive into the Beyers and the weekend recap along with the HG analysis tomorrow.

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Dan,
will you please post the final 3/8 and 1/8 mile times for the "main" Derby preps?

Dan, will you post Lukas, Baffert and Zito's Derby win %
Captain Bodgit

These numbers are courtesy of FormulatorWeb:

Arkansas Derby:  38.62, 12.85
*Fastest individual performances:
Last 3/8ths - UH OH BANGO (37.46)
Last 1/8th - UH OH BANGO (12.48)

Blue Grass:  36.36, 12.06
*Fastest individual performances:
Last 3/8ths - STATELY VICTOR (35.57)
Last 1/8th - CODOY (11.92)

Santa Anita Derby:  35.67, 12.45
*Fastest individual performances:
Last 3/8ths - SETSUKO (35.38)
Last 1/8th - SETSUKO (11.75)

Illinois Derby:  38.09, 13.07
*Fastest individual performances:
Last 3/8ths - AMERICAN LION (38.09)
Last 1/8 - AMERICAN LION (13.07)

Wood Memorial:  36.43, 12.24
*Fastest individual performances:
Last 3/8ths - ESKENDEREYA (36.35)
Last 1/8 - ESKENDEREYA (12.24)

Louisiana Derby:  38.25, 12.80
*Fastest individual performances:
Last 3/8ths - MISTER MARTI GRAS (36.83)
Last 1/8th - FLY DOWN (11.58)

Sunland Derby:  36.55, 12.58
*Fastest individual performances:
Last 3/8ths - FOG ALERT (36.30)
Last 1/8th - FOG ALERT (12.41)

Lane's End Stakes:  37.91, 12.78
*Fastest individual performances:
Last 3/8ths - LETSGETITONMON (37.75)
Last 1/8th - DEAN'S KITTEN (12.78)

Florida Derby:  38.43, 13.10
*Fastest individual performances:
Last 3/8ths - ICE BOX (37.12)
Last 1/8th - ICE BOX (12.66)

Sham Stakes:  36.50, 12.20
*Fastest individual performances:
Last 3/8ths - ALPHIE'S BET (36.21)
Last 1/8th - ALPHIE'S BET (12.10)

Fountain of Youth Stakes:  36.46, 12.33
*Fastest individual performances:
Last 3/8ths - ESKENDEREYA (36.46)
Last 1/8th - ESKENDERYEA (12.33)

El Camino Real Stakes:  38.16, 12.58
*Fastest individual performances:
Last 3/8ths - CONNEMARA (37.54)
Last 1/8th - HAIMISH HY (12.08)

Nick Zito is 2-22 (9%)
Bob Baffert is 3-18 (17%)
D. Wayne Lukas is 4-43 (9%)

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TO ALL
 Last year there was a discussion on the blog about the derby and the beyer number.I can't remember exactly but It was something about x number of past   derby winners all had beyers of 100 or more in either the last race leading up to the derby or in an earlier race.I can't remember which.Is that correct and if  it is does anybody know which is right or is my memory wrong?
garyw

Here are the past performances of the last 17 Kentucky Derby winners.  Look for comparisons, if you like, but I'd be very wary of solely using "pattern" handicapping in seeking this year's Derby champion:

Download Derby winners

 

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While different in most every regard, Eskendereya's efforts in the BC Juvenile and the Wood Memorial have one thing in common.  He didn't switch leads until halfway down the stretch in either race.  In the race with the big competitive field it cost him all chance, despite the fact that he did encounter early trouble in the race.  The race wasn't over for him until he failed to switch leads anywhere close to " on time."  Check it out on the DRF.com home page under the Kentucky Derby section in the Contender Profiles section.  DRF.com has almost all the video for all the major contenders on there, to go with free pps with updated workout times for all contenders, which is outstanding content.
I know its sounds like I'm nitpicking but I do want to beat the favorite.  Does anyone else have a concern about this issue or am I suffering delusions from Derby fever? This is not my main argument for trying to beat Eskendereya but it feels reassuring to find a small chink in the armor.

Dan,
Who is this year's Derby wiseguy horse going to be?  Endorsement? Super Saver
Wilson

If I had to guess a "wiseguy" horse, I think ENDORSEMENT may go off an underlay based on the big number he earned in the Sunland Derby. 

The lead changes a slight concern for me.  Eskendereya hasn't been smooth with his lead changes.  In the Fountain of Youth, I thought he made his final lead change a bit early while in the Wood Memorial, he didn't switch until about the eighth pole. 
It's quite possible that he simply was bored.  He didn't have any competition at that point in either race and may have been playing just a bit.  As I said, it's a minor concern, but if you have an angle to beat a big favorite, maybe you just run with it.

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Dan,
Don't they have you doing enough crap over there!??! Now double secret probation assignments?
cayman01

cayman01, I'm one of the few around here that doesn't say 'no' when they don't want to do something.  I believe the word is 'sucker.'

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Dan,
"vicstu, I'm a Nova Southeastern guy.  How can I be nice? : )"
On this blog you are a fellow Florida college alum, and a cross state rival. Certainly, you can be a nice guy. After all, even Wilt and Russell needed each other, right?
However, if I ran into you at an Eckerd College function, I would have to immediatly disavow any knowledge of who you are. LOL! (I am kidding, of course).
BTW, you have never used BSFs to determine greatness, have you? I know some at DRF might have, but I posted your comparison between BR and Esky to make a point that they are used to compare speed and form.
vicstu

vicstu, if I can find it, I'll send you a copy of a young Dan Illman calling the play-by-play for one of the epic Nova Southeastern - Eckerd basketball or women's volleyball games.  I don't remember if we won or not, but I do remember that the Knights (now the Sharks) had an okay basketball team, but were a machine on the volleyball court.

I don't think one should use Beyer Speed Figures to determine greatness.  They are a handicapping tool, nothing more.  The definition of greatness in an equine athlete, to me, is the combination of determination, heart, and courage coupled with the ability to overcome adverse situations, as well as being "brilliant" when the need arises (whether it be early, middle, or late in a race).

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Dan
Thanks for your recent post of the PP's for the 2001 & 2002 Ky Derby.
Any chance of providing the PP's of the Derby field for the following years
 2003
 2004
 2005
 2006
Even if you can do 1 or 2 years at a time it would be
great.
Keep up the good work.
Bernie

Here they are:

Download 2003 Kentucky Derby

Download 2004 Kentucky Derby

Download 2005 Kentucky Derby

Download 2006 Kentucky Derby

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Dan, thankyou for your response to my request for sire lists they are very helpful. I know that certain bloodlines produce runners that perform earlier than others and with many maiden races coming up this spring I am hoping to find out which turf sires produce horses that run well early in their careers. I found a list of mud and slop sires printed by drf many years ago in some of my old paper work, do they still compile them now? Also, there are so many good sires now that I am thinking that broodmares maybe very important in this Kentucky Derby who in your opinion are the best for this years Derby contenders. Thanks very much for your help.
don

The drfplus feature on our homepage has debut sire, debut broodmare sire, and debut trainer lists going back to 2007.  They should help you with first-out grass sires.  I haven't seen a mud list in quite a bit. 

For your broodmare query, I'll list the top 20 broodmare sires (by earnings) over the last few years:

2009:
1.  Sadler's Wells
2.  Miswaki
3.  Seeking the Gold
4.  Kris S.
5.  Deputy Minister
6.  Woodman
7.  Storm Cat (Sidney's Candy) (American Lion)
8.  Rahy
9.  Dixieland Band
10. Rainbow Quest
11. Mr. Prospector (Awesome Act) (Setsuko)
12. Seattle Slew (Eskendereya)
13. Danehill
14. Darshaan
15. Broad Brush (Interactif)
16. Carson City (Make Music for Me)
17. Red Ransom
18. Danzig
19. Kingmambo
20. Wild Again

2008:

1.  Sadler's Wells
2.  Deputy Minister
3.  Woodman
4.  Dixieland Band
5.  Mr. Prospector
6.  Nureyev
7.  Darshaan
8.  Rahy
9.  Storm Cat
10. Kayhasi
11. Kris S.
12. Lord At War
13. Caerleon
14. Danehill
15. Seeking the Gold
16. Pleasant Colony
17. Storm Bird (Dublin)
18. Seattle Slew
19. A.P. Indy (Endorsement) (Super Saver)
20. Dynaformer (Stately Victor)

2007:

1.  Deputy Minister
2.  Sadler's Wells
3.  Dixieland Band
4.  Mr. Prospector
5.  Woodman
6.  Storm Cat
7.  Darshaan
8.  Caerleon
9.  Diesis
10. Rahy
11. Seeking the Gold
12. A.P. Indy
13. Kris S.
14. Danehill
15. Miswaki
16. Dynaformer
17. Theatrical
18. Valid Appeal
19. Conquistador Cielo
20. Danzig

Hope this helps.

***

Dan:
BTW, I wouldn't get to cocky over Annie and knm's comments about you being "great looking" now. Afterall, these two Blue Thongs fell head over heels for a horse named after a likeable, but hardly handsome, cartoon character, and then added a crush on an idle rich, polo playing ruddy cheeked English fop namesake horse as further evidence of poor taste in man flesh, if not horseflesh!

Nah, Keith L, the ladies are absolutely right about my looks.

***

can you please post the past performance for easy goer? I heard he posts some of the highest beyers ever in his race career
neil

Here are Easy Goer's past performances.  Remember that the Beyer Speed Figures weren't published in the DRF pp's when Easy Goer was active. 

Download Easy Goer

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I have been keeping and compiling Derby stats for a while now but I'd like to have a full two decades to work with. Also in the latest Haskin article he compares Mission Impazible to Lil E Tee. It would be neat to see what comparisons are there (if any) between the two.
Is there any chance we could see Derby PP's from 1992, 1991 and 1990?
Kennedy

Dan,
If its not too much trouble can you please post the pp's for the 1990 kentucky derby. It was my fav derby ever. Also a 5k claimer  I made a ton of money on in my youth named   traveling tyler . I even became pals with his trainer for a few years
Thank You !
Sam M

Here's what I have for those three years:

Download 1992 Kentucky Derby

 

Download 1991 Kentucky Derby

Download 1990 Kentucky Derby

And here are Traveling Tyler's past performances:

Download Traveling Tyler

 

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The 'double secret work detail', is dog sitting two greyhounds.
There, I said it!
As much as I admire Mr Crist,
I think his aversion to spending money goes too far
when he demands this from his
employees to save a few bucks.
And besides, I think he could give you a raise!
chicago gerry

I wish that was it!  LOL.  I haven't had the pleasure of meeting Donnie yet, but Mr. Crist's older greyhound, Popeye, is one of my favorite creatures on the planet. 

I agree about the raise!

***

dan,
mikeA says that you put a lot of emphasis on horses who drift in they're prior start,as a negative, espically if they are stretching out. if true, plz explain to me why.
thx
VQ

I can't think of anything good when I see a horse weave in the stretch.  Whether they're drifting in or lugging out, I wonder if they're fatigued (not a good sign), green or inexperienced (something that can be worked out in the future, perhaps), or injured (they're favoring a body part and not running in a straight line).
Now, if you see a horse that's been successful drifting out in the past, you may want to take their previous indiscretions with a grain of salt.  Still, in my eyes, it's not a very positive sign when handicapping their next performance.

***

Dan,
Fantastic job with Mikey on this weekend's stakes videos, especially your "lengthy analysis" of the Lexington!
Alan

Thanks, Alan.  We appreciate it.  By the way, you guys can catch Mike and I every week on "Out of the Gate," brought to you by Daily Racing Form at the link below:

http://www.nycotb.com/newnycotb/Video/tabid/204/Default.aspx

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How does the #1 run 7f at Kee in 1:26.39 and get an 87 Beyer while the #3 runs 7f at Kee in 1:22.61 and gets a 90 Beyer?  Could Kee be that different from one day to the next?  Thanks for any insight offered.
Felton

The races were run at two different distances.  Krypton ran at the About 7 Furlong distance of the Beard Course while Bushwhacked ran the exact seven furlong distance.

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Todd Pletcher Put front wraps on all his horses on Wood Mem. Day. Had something to do with the track condition. ME personally, I can't wait til Munnings runs back without them.
matt

After one of Pletcher's runners, Obligingly, burned his heels earlier on the card, Pletcher added front wraps, as a precaution, to the rest of his main track starters including Nite Light, Munnings, and Eskendereya.

***

Dan,
I did not see your under the radar segment, but, thinking about Dublin in particular,
would most starters in the Derby, *regardless of their pedigree*, have shown an ability,  propensity or likeness for the
1 1/4 distance by now (Plonk called Dublin a Miler-He also does not think Super Saver wants the distance)? Or is this something that could  be trained into them, or just show up in the Kentuckey Derby?
Thanks,
chicago gerry

 

Here's the link for the "Under the Radar" column spotlighting Dublin:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/radar/radar.html

Your question regarding whether horses have already shown a fondness for the 1 1/4 miles is a tough one.  Obviously, none of them have raced at the distance so we really have no true gauge of their abilities at this distance.  We can make educated guesses based on pedigree and physical type, but until they do it, I'm not sure I can conclusively say that 'x' horse is a sure-bet to "get" the distance.


***

I've got the luck of the Orioles today - like my favorite team, I have no closer!!
Alan

The O's may have a closer, but I don't think they know it yet.  If Mike Gonzalez doesn't come back, perhaps Koji Uehara will get a chance when he returns from the Disabled List.  I'm not sure if Jim Johnson is the man to finish games for another year.


***

Dan,
I thought I was pretty good at reading race conditions, but the race Sat. 4-17, Tampa, 8th, has thrown me.
How do #8, Pyrite Personal and # 10, Perfect Bull get in the race without the claiming price?
I count 3 races for PB that are not mdn, cl or starter and 5 for PP. They are not Florida breds and they have won more than four races and they are not entered for a claiming tag.  What gives?
Also, any word on Mike Smith after his fall on Friday?  He rode one race after the fall and was off Sat and Sun.
Ron Zuercher

 

 

 

Hi Ron.  Here were the conditions for the race in question:

For Four Year Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Or Which Have Never Won Four Races or Optional Claiming Price of $50,000."

Let's count PYRITE PERSONAL's lifetime wins. 

 

 

 

 


September 9, 2006, Maiden Special Weight (doesn't count in the condition)

October 23, 2006, 'N2L" allowance at Mountaineer (does count as one win in the condition)

May 20, 2007, statebred allowance River Downs (doesn't count in the condition)

June 2, 2007, statebred stakes race at River Downs (doesn't count in the condition)

June 30, 2007, statebred stakes race at Thistledown (doesn't count in the condition)

February 7, 2009, $32,000 optional claimer (doesn't count in condition as was entered for claiming price)

Remember that he was disqualified from first in an allowance race at Tampa Bay on April 11, 2009.

So, Pyrite Personal has won a maiden race, three statebred race, and one claiming race.  He is actually eligible for the 'n2x' condition.

Now, let's take a look at PERFECT BULL's wins:

September 25, 2008, maiden special weight at Remington Park (doesn't count in the condition)

October 30, 2008, $75,000 optional claimer (doesn't count in the condition as was entered for tag)

April 25, 2009, 'n1x' allowance (counts as one win for the condition)

May 17, 2009, 'n2x' optional claimer (counts as two wins for the condition)

August 1, 2009, statebred stakes race (doesn't count in the condition)

August 30, 2009, statebred stakes races (doesn't count in the condition)

Perfect Bull has won a maiden race, a claiming race, and two statebred races.  He is eligible for the 'n3x' level of this race.

As for Mike Smith, here's what was reported by Steve Andersen yesterday afternoon:

Jockey Mike Smith took off his mounts Saturday and Sunday because of soreness after being unseated during a turf race Friday. Smith, 44, said he plans to resume riding Wednesday at Hollywood Park.

"I'm just body sore," he said Sunday afternoon. "It's hard for me to turn my head. I thought it would be best to take a rest. I don't want to hinder anyone's chances."

Smith avoided serious injury when Operetta Italiano stumbled in the first turn of a $32,000 claimer over a mile on turf. Operetta Italiano appeared to take an awkward step and stumble before Smith fell from the left side of the filly.

"She shot out to the right and left me with no horse underneath," Smith said.

Smith was on his feet quickly and was taken to first aid for observation. He said he was fortunate there were no trailing horses behind Operetta Italiano.

"Luckily, I didn't get hit," he said. "I'm getting older. The next day I couldn't move. Today, I'm moving better. I don't need to be on a horse's back."

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Dan
The above discussion makes me want to see Megahertz's PPs.  I would be most grateful if you could oblige.  Thanks.
Dick W

 

Here they are:

 

Download Megahertz

 

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Dan, if you have the chance, would love to see pps for once Derby hopefuls Rexson's Quill and Highland Park, and an old sprinter named Popol Vuh.
question:  what's the deal at Finger Lakes - clicked on the ROD today when I saw it was at FL. Havent' looked at anything from that track for years, but it seems they are mostly running 4.5 furlong races - anyone know anything?

thanks
pensign

 

Here's what I have for those runners:

 

Download Oldtimers

Most of the Finger Lakes horses are running off long layoffs (most haven't raced since the close of last season's Finger Lakes meeting).  The 4 1/2 furlong races are often a staple in the first few weeks of the meet as the horses "race" themselves back into shape.

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DAN ...can I ask NOW, for you to start thinking about comming out here to LV for the tournament? Please let Steve know we WANT you here :) Three years is a long time to keep me waiting...hmmmm? LOL!
SR Vegas

 

Sharon, you know I'd love to go, especially with Alan, and hopefully other FormBloggers, in the big tourney.  Of course, I'm at the mercy of the DRF schedule (and the fact that no one else says "yes" to extra work around here).  If they can get someone to cover "Blinkers Off" that Friday, I'd be there in a heartbeat.  We'll have to wait and see.

***

 

 

Dan,
I was wondering if we could please see the PPs for the 2000 Derby field? I have a feeling that it will help with this year's Derby
tencentcielo

Here are the past performances for FuPeg's Derby:

 

 

 

 

Download 2000 Kentucky Derby

 

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Dan,  Any chance to see the PPs for the 1990 Derby winner Unbridled?  Thanks!!
DanP

 

Here they are:

Download Unbridled

 

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Dan-I'm quite sure you have nothing to do between 12:00 pm and 5:00 am everyday-can't you make yourself useful during that dead time?  Truly, I know the book would be great, and with the proper marketing would sell like a champ.
blackstone

 

You don't really think they would market us, despite our success, do you?  Glass ceiling, blackstone...glass ceiling.

***

 

HG 181
$6 Super
4/1/2/5,6,7
4/2/1/5,6,7
4/1/5,6,7/2
4/2/5,6,7/1
4/1/5,6,7/2
chicago gerry

Congrats to chicago gerry for finishing first in our HandiGambling exercise.  He gave me the option of selecting this week's race, and I'm going to go with cayman's suggestion of Wednesday's Harry Henson Stakes at Hollywood.  Here are the past performances:

Download HG182

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the races, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."   Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.  In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.  Prospective entrants may submit their plays to the blog up until post time.  One entry per person please.  I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.  The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are.  I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

Best of luck to al





 

l