04/12/2008 3:08PM

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A few thoughts on today's Premier Pick Four, linking the Commonwealth and Blue Grass at Keeneland with the Instant Racing and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn:

Leg 1 (Commonwealth): I'm really interested in Medzendeekron, who's 10-1 on the morning line, and who many will dismiss off a gappy 11-race career that was undistinguished until his last start, where he ran a Beyer 100 winning a 6 1/2-furlong allowance race at Santa Anita. It's usually wise to be wary of a figure so out of line with a horse's history, but I've gone through the March 1 SA results and Medzendeekron's effort looks completely legit. As it was his second start off a long layoff, I'm willing to gamble that he finally got his act together. He finished explosively and a similar effort might blow away this odd collection of turfers, turnbacks and returnees from layoffs. I'll back up with Rebellion, Forefathers and Thousand Words and let Xchanger beat me from the rail off the layoff.

Leg 2 (Blue Grass): Pyro may well be the best horse in the race but he's an underlay at even-money and this is a ripe spot for chaos. Remember last year's inaugural Polytrack Blue Grass, where Dominican, Street Snse, Zanjero and Teufelsberg finished about eight inches apart? In addition, Pyro hasn't raced on a synthetric track, and probably isn't wound too tightly for this spot. My plan is to go six or seven deep.

Leg 3 (Instant Racing): You've got to narrow somewhere, and I'll live a little dangerously here with just the two favorites. Sky Mom has won three stakes races, which is three more than the rest of the field combined, and just looks better than these. Euphony has won both her starts, should stretch out to a mile, and has more upside than the other contenders, who required multiple starts to get through their preliminary conditions.

Leg 4 (Arkansas Derby): A tough race, but if I can get alive to the quartet of Gayego, Z Fortune, Golden Yank and Liberty Bull, I'll take my chances.

mike More than 1 year ago
after all the great west coast stars run out on derby day then the players will realize that poly is a joke
kevin More than 1 year ago
Looks like you nailed the Pick 4. I had REBELLION on my main tickets, but singled PYRO in the Bluegrass. MONBA was my lone backup in that race (whew!) and I was able to get another main horse across in EUPHONY. That left me alive to KINGS SILVER SON and LIBERTY BULL for $2 and GAYEGO for a $1. Thank god for the saver.
Flip Dawson More than 1 year ago
Steve Asmussen hits first time out at Woodbine.Yup, he had a fave win called Piano Tunner--paid $6.20 on Sat. Re Secret Play--odds were 7.95 and nag ran second last. Rules state if SP loses, you should play horse first time out, as inside money was lost. I like playing last race each day if there is a suitable wager. For Superfecta players, check the handle at WO on all Super races. The last race is usually higher in handle by 10 grand.So, it will pay more than in race 5 and race 8. I don't play the Super anymore, as wheeling and part wheels mean there are numerous times you are betting against yourself.Win bets only for me, except for Derby exotics. Another Secret Play today perhaps in last race.Since WO opened a week ago, the Secret Play is 2 for 3, including $52.10 on Friday April 11.
Brian McLean More than 1 year ago
I to liked Medzendeekron, but I like Elite Squadron even more at three times the price. So into the race I went with win and exacta box tickets on both. I really thought I had a chance to at least cash the $80.00 win ticket, but NOOOOOO…… I get nosed out of the win and 2-3 in the exacta. AARRGHHHH!!!! Big boys do cry.
Dan More than 1 year ago
Steve, More like Poly "Prep"osterous.
Don Reed More than 1 year ago
Hi Ho. Pyro, running as expected in the BG (thud), nevertheless was a disaster for those of us who were counting on 15,000 Pyromaniacs dumping the rent dough on Asmussen's ding dong in the Derby. Now, our hopes are that the Big Brown Bait will attract the same boobs in the big blowout on May 3rd. And the lightning bolt hitting the New Jersey Account Wagering system, killing off their card/profits on a big betting day - divine retribution? Congrats, Steve, on hitting it big. Now, with the profits, go buy 100 tickets for The First Saturday In May, and hand them out to the Obama campaign "elitists" and Bill Clinton. A dark bunker in the Village would be an ideal location to lay low for a while, until their respective gaffes blow over. (Better hold on to @ 50 tix for the McCain foot-in-mouthers, expected to surface Any Day Now.) And if we had the numbers on "Hank's Bank," from 2000-on, wouldn't that be a sorry spectacle? Loved the way he got his back up and righteously tangled with one of the post-race commentators - after hitting his annual home run. He has unwittingly morphed into the Margaret Dumont of the racing world - the bewildered champion of wounded dignity, and the perfect foil for wisecracks that shatter the illusion of his self-imagined stature. (Fog horn sounds. Strike the set.)
yuwipi More than 1 year ago
Really don't want to sound like a whiner, but how can a 90 minute racing show (ESPN) leave a 75 minute middle with only the Holy Bull race from GP to fill it up? This on a day when Keeneland had a great undercard - Jenny Wiley and Commonwealth stakes. Do enjoy Bailey, Moss and Edwards on the show, but Goldberg's piggy bank - please! Still, the best line I ran across all day was in DRF. Dave Liftin's "they paved paradise and put up a Polytrack" had me muting the ESPN show and listening to "Big Yellow Taxi" as I tried to get Z Fortune home at Oaklawn. Great time of year, win or lose.
Don Reed More than 1 year ago
Steve: Having failed to express myself clearly, please accept the below as what the final paragraph of my letter above should have stated. "(Back when he had the funds to do so. His present condition underscores what a missed opportunity existed. Today, in his precarious financial position, he would be more than ready to sell it back to the state of New Jersey for far less money than he had paid. The difference in the two prices then could have been plowed back into N.J.'s racing, without having to put the AC casinos in a headlock for donations.) " Sorry. Don
Don Reed More than 1 year ago
Steve, as another of your corespondents so aptly put it, I too find it hard to envision that you were of a mind to regard this site as a summer fancy, to be shut down at the end of the 2007 Saratoga Season. It has become the information clearing house par excellence of horse racing. (Keep that in mind in this respect: The yearly fee for DRF On-Line, never regarded as onerous, has now edged closer to the category of "indispensable.") I write to ask others consulting this edition, to also turn back to your previous entry, "Nuggets." Someone at the tail end of the Nuggets column wrote in to justifiably protest that New Jersey Account wagering has failed so miserably, it is now imperative that YouBet be asked to return to the scene of the crime to resume their operations. Betting on the Arkansas Derby and the Blue Grass, for NJAW customers, became an impossibility when their site crashed on this date (04/12/08) - presumably when lightning, as they have stated, knocked them out of action. I added a letter detailing N.J.A.W.'s miserable performance since their ignominious Breeders' Cup fiasco. This perspective may be valuable to your readers, also NJAW customers, who are tired of watching a racing concern prove that he wasn't completely out of his mind when Frank Stronach passed on buying Monmouth Park. (Back when he had the funds to do so. His present condition underscores what a missed opportunity existed. Today, in his precarious financial position, he would be more than ready to sell it back to the state of New Jersey for far less money than he had paid - money that could be plowed back into N.J.'s racing, without having to put the AC casinos in a headlock for donations.) Thanks, Don
capnstinky More than 1 year ago
Steve, I think you won. What did that crazy Pick 4 pay? A billion dollars?