05/19/2008 8:21PM

Preakness recap, Beyers, etc.

Email

Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's stakes races:

*Dixie (Pim):  Pays to Dream (D. Donk/J. Castellano) - 107

*John Wayne (PrM):  Red Hot N Gold (K. Von Hemel/K. Shino) - 105
*Fit to Fight (Bel):  Delosvientos (G. Iadsernia/E. Coa) - 102
*Pimlico Special (Pim):  Student Council (S. Asmussen/S. Bridgmohan) - 102
*Champali (Crc):  Blue Pepsi Lodge (K. Ziadie/W. Henry) - 101
*Hirsch Jacobs (Pim):  Lantana Mob (S. Asmussen/R. Albarado) - 101
*Ford Express (LS):  Wind Water (C. Hartman/K. Tohill) - 101
*Preakness (Pim):  Big Brown (R. Dutrow Jr./K. Desormeaux) - 100
*Free Spirit's Joy (LaD):  Bluehard (F. Leggio/C. Hernandez) - 100
*Shuvee (Bel):  Cowgirls Don't Cry (K. McLaughlin/M. Luzzi) - 100

*Upper Noosh (Bel):  Genuine Devotion - Ire (K. McLaughlin/A. Garcia) - 99
*Lazaro Barrera Memorial (Hol):  Two Step Salsa (J. Canani/M. Pedroza) - 99
*Gallorette (Pim):  Roshani (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) - 97
*Hastings Park (EmD):  Private Dreams (J. Hollendorfer/L. Mawing) - 96
*Mt. Vernon (Bel):  Them There Eyes (K. Feron/J. Espinoza) - 96
*El Segundo (Hol):  Canteen (N. Drysdale/R. Bejarano) - 95
*Matt Winn (CD):  Eaton's Gift (D. Romans/E. Trujillo) - 95
*Turf Sprint (Pim):  Heros Reward (D. Capuano/J. Castellano) - 95
*Waterford Park (Mnr):  Reigning Court (S. Sowle/M. Doser) - 94
*Desert Stormer (Hol):  Ashley's Kitty (T. West/J. Talamo) - 94
*Allaire DuPont Distaff (Pim):  Buy the Barrel (J. Jones/G. Saez) - 94
*Hancock County (Mnr):  La Chica Rica (C. Pickett/D. Parker) - 94
*Winter Melody (Del):  Lemon Drop Mom (T. Ritchey/J. Caraballo) - 94
*Maryland Sprint (Pim):  Starforaday (E. Prado/G. Contessa) - 94
*Ride the Rails (Crc):  Mambo Meister (P. Gleaves/M. Cruz) - 93
*Adjudicating (Bel):  Ready's Image (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) - 93
*Barbaro (Pim):  Roman Emperor (S. Klesaris/J. Rose) - 93
*Trevose (Pha):  Dulce Realidad (R. Vega/J. Flores) - 92
*Big Earl (LaD):  John Charles (S. Breaux/G. Melancon) - 92
*Will Rogers (Hol):  Polonius  (M. Pender/J. Court) - 92
*Black-Eyed Susan (Pim):  Sweet Vendetta (G. Contessa/C. Hill) - 92
*Long Beach (Hol): Wake Up Maggie - Ire (J. Canani/J. Talamo) - 92
*Skipat (Pim):  Akronism (T. Ritchey/P. Morales) - 91
*Miss Preakness (Pim):  Palanka City (T. Gestes/C. Emigh) - 91
*Polly's Jet (Del):  African Violet (H. Motion/R. Dominguez) - 90
*Golden Poppy (GG):  Misty Ocean (J. Hollendorfer/F. Alvarado) - 90

*Powder Doll Starter (LaD):  Coach Mike (T. Richey/D. Saenz) - 89
*Golden Bear (GG):  Nevada Worrier (J. Wallace II/A. Delgadillo) - 89
*OTA Classic (WRD):  Marq French (D. Von Hemel/D. Pettinger) - 88
*Lulu's Ransom (Crc):  Mysterious Jule (L. Scace/E. Nunez) - 88
*The Very One (Pim):  All Giving (F. Stites/E. Rodriguez) - 87
*Emerald Downs (Hst):  Dancing Allstar (T. Jordan/M. Gutierrez) - 87
*John Franks Memorial (LaD):  Desert Wheat (W. Mott/F. Torres) - 86
*Teeworth Plate (StP):  Footprint (J. Petrowski/R. Simard) - 85
*Reluctant Guest (AP):  Forever Together (J. Sheppard/E. Fires) - 85
*Speed (Lnn):  Doc Tanner (B. Roberts/C. Fackler) - 84
*Just Smashing (Mth):  D'wild Ride (J. Orseno/J. Bravo) - 84
*Jim Coleman Province (Hst):  Peaceful Turzia (T. Taylor/F. Perez) - 83
*Mamie Eisenhower (PrM):  Beyond the Reach (J. Barkley/C. Montalvo) - 82

*Woodlawn (Pim):  Termsofengagement (N. Alberts/A. Napravnik) - 79
*Seven Stars (LaD):  Tortuga Flats (R. Irwin/K. LeBlanc) - 79
*Selene (WO):  Verdana Bold (D. Vella/E. Ramsammy) - 77
*Fantasia (LaD):  Superior Storm (R. Jackson/J. Jacinto) - 76
*WRD Classic (WRD):  Midsummer Magic (D. Von Hemel/D. Pettinger) - 75
*Marine (WO):  Matt's Broken Vow (J. Carroll/E. Ramsammy) - 73
*Tomboy (RD):  Formal Arrangement (M. Feliciano/A. Ramgeet) - 70

*10,000 Lakes (Cby):  Banker's D Light (P. Hartman/A. Von Rosen) - 63
*Lady Slipper (Cby):  A. J. Bakes (T. Hoffrogge/S. Stevens) - 60

*Lady's Secret (Boi):  Sarah in Charge (P. Treasure/R. Boyce) - 53

Here are the lifetime past performances for both the "Big" and "Little" Beyer stakes-winners from this past week:


Download BigLittle.pdf

***

Back tomorrow with Handicappers of the Week, and much more.

steven More than 1 year ago
I have heard that the consortium that owns Big Brown plans to retire him after the Belmont. Is this true? Is there any way that the industry can remind itself that the reason horses are bred is to run not to retire when they are comparatively children. The logic will soon be reached that a horse will be syndicated as a yearling and then be paraded on the track twice as a two year and then whisked away to the breeding shed. If the sport wants to put its tragedies in the shadows it needs to promote its superstars. I am thankful that we have a horse like Curlin who has, as a four year old, proven to be a truly great horse. It would be great if late this year--or imagining we were back in the 1960s or 70s, sometime next year--to see the two of them race against each other. Clearly there are some people who have it all wrong and sadly they all too often call the tune.
Mathieu More than 1 year ago
Steve T, Let's hope Magnificience just needed one. We'll see soon enough in the upcoming A Gleam Stakes. Steve V, Thanks for the update on Pyro. Have you seen where Asmussen is pointing him? I'm curious to see what's next as beyond the two stretch runs @ Fairgrounds he hasn't raised more than a gallop this year so he can't be "resting up". I've seen no mention of him for the Belmont or Ohio Derby and knowing Asmussen's disdain for the synthetics the Swaps is out. So what gives with the colt who was the Derby favorite less than two months ago?
MudhoundMojo More than 1 year ago
C, No harm, no foul. I have read enough of your posts too know that when it comes too the numbers, it is your world and I'm just trying too catch a couple deap breaths. I think I know more about the Beyers' than my previous post indicates, but still, probably do not have the grasp of all the "variants." I guess it is hard enough for me to pick the right horses and the right betting strategy without having to decipher whether or not I believe in Andy's number,(which I would spend as much time verifying or discounting as it took to cap the race). At any rate C, I always appreciate your posts and felt no evil intent on your part ( just a zealousness too get it right). p.s. Did you take note of the way BB looked after both TC races? Something incredible there! I know he wasn't pushed, but, jeez louise, he looked like he wanted another lap at the end of the Preakness. I'd be interested in your thoughts.
Steve V. More than 1 year ago
johnny Z, Great link to that Espn article- I really enjoyed it. I wrote in a previous post - months ago, how great of a gig -Dutrow has (being handed such great talented horses from deep pocketed clients). But to his credit- he has earned ! The guy really is a master strategist, whether you like him or not, and whether he's "got an edge" or not. Our job as handicapper's is to put all of that into the pot- and sort it out.
Jason G More than 1 year ago
Matthieu, Kent D was riding not to lose, which is exactly what you should do when you are sitting on much the best horse. I think you were making this same point. But I think it's harder to do than you think. Especially in the Preakness when everyone is trying to box the derby winner in and get him in trouble. They tried, Prado basicallly gave up any chance his mount had trying to gun Riley Tucker to keep BB boxed in during the first part of the race, but Kent D saw an opening and reacted beautifully. I understand he has made mistakes in the past and has been erratic. He's cost me money in the past trying to be cute. But this is a different Kent D man. He is mature. He is calm. He doesn't panic now. I have watched him for the last 6 months or so, and it is a completely different jockey than the one you speak of. He has his horse in the perfect position each and every race. He is beginning to remind me of Jerry Bailey. So I guess we'll just have to disagree on that one man. As for Bejarano. Watch him in a turf race and tell me you would want your horse anywhere near him in a big race. I don't want to be too critical, he's a good rider, but I can't call him a money rider when he often times (too often) gets the best horse beat in races because he's in the wrong spot or isn't patient. I agree 100% on Gomez, he's a pro's pro, always does the right thing and rarely gets a horse beat. One other thing. I'm not sure why, but no one seems to be talking about Dennis of Cork. Take a look at the replay of the derby, this horse ran a phenomenal race. I thought going in he was perhaps the only horse in the field that had close to the talent that BB has. The way he won the race in Arkansas was really impressive. This horse has only run 1 bad race, and it was at Hawthorne so it doesn't count. He will love 1 1/2, he's dead fit after last and could be sitting on a peak effort. Is he good enough to beat BB if BB doesn't have a major problem in the race?? I just don't know. But to me, nothing else in the race, including Casino Drive, is even worth talking about. Peace
Blue Horseshoe More than 1 year ago
Riley, I'm with you on Ready's Echo and additionally I don't really disagree with Steve V's take. That said, I'm intrigued by this horse and will be happy to play him as a flyer at the right price. Given that the Belmont is generally speaking, a pedigree race, we wouldn't normally think a More Than Ready would be a likely winner, but then again, the same could be said of a Boundary... There's no question that Big Brown looks like very close to a stone cold lock but there's something in my gut that tells me it ain't gonna happen... Why not bombs away???
Lawduck07 More than 1 year ago
laura - (This is probably going to bore many of you, so if you're not into genetics then skip this.) I disagree with your analogy to baldness, or maybe I just am confused by the way you described the heart factor genetic stuff in the previous post. I’ll offer my understanding of genetics and maybe you can help me square it with the large heart stuff Baldness is not a sex- linked trait, but rather is sex-influenced inheritance. Men tend to bald quicker because the thinning hair gene is recessive in women and dominant in men. (I.e. Assume B (gene that codes for losing hair), b (gene for not losing hair) Therefore, A heterozygous, Bb, male will exhibit the phenotype of balding while a hetrozygous, Bb, female will not exhibit the phenotype of balding.) There are of course phenotypes that are expressed through genes found on the sex chromosomes. (Maybe the big heart thing is more like that? However, that makes the huge assumption that the expressed phenotype, large heart, is related to only one gene or multiple genes that are all located on the sex chromosomes.) In these situations, recessive genes are more likely to be expressed in males as they receive one X chromosome with a gene on it from the female and one Y chromosome, which is essentially a blank, from the male. Therefore, if the female carries the recessive gene (Iin humans, a good example is color blindness, which I’ll designate as, C (normal) and c (color blind)), then any son of hers has a 100 percent chance of inheriting that gene if she is homozygous recessive (cc, or carries two recessive genes herself) or a 50 percent chance of inheriting the gene if she is a heterozygous carrier of the recessive gene (Cc). However, since the Y chromosome from the male is a blank the chances of the recessive trait exhibiting itself in a son are much higher than they are in a daughter, who also receives an X chromosome from her father and thus doubles her chance of having the recessive gene’s expression masked by that of a dominant one donated by her father. In this way, there can be mother-to-son inheritance, but there is never the converse father-to-daughter inheritance because a female receives an X from her father and therefore, inherits equal genes from each parent with regard to the genes located on the sex chromosomes. (Obviously the offspring always inherit from each parent equally with regard to non-sex chromosome genes.) Of course, if the father carries homozygous dominant genes for any trait MM, (M is dominant, m is recessive), no matter what the mother is - MM, Mm, or mm - the offspring will exhibit the phenotype of M. So if a male carries an inordinate amount of dominant genes he will “stamp” his offspring, male and female, with them. Never thought suffering through Genetics would be worthwhile for anything. So, I will buy the dam to male offspring angle, but not the sire to female offspring angle. The assumption that there is either one gene that codes for heart size, the so-called X factor, or that if there are multiple genes they are all located on the sex chromosomes is also hard for me to swallow. I’m not trying to be rude just curious, because what you said didn’t jive with my understanding of genetics of which I am by no means an expert but have been through the college upper level biology ropes. Okay, just reread your post and by "from son to daughter" you mean, since son, or subsequent sire, has only the recessive gene, he can only pass this recessive on to daughters when he contributes the second X sex chromosome to them. He can't pass it on to a son because the sire only gives them a Y, which is the "blank". The daughter, however, is more likely to only be a carrier of the gene because she will get another X (as in sex chromosome, not large heart gene) from her mother, which is likely to mask the recessive gene from the sire. So it does sound very much like color blindness in people. Sounds much more plausible to me now. (Still a little hard to believe that there is one gene for heart size and not a combination, but I getting it now.) I'll still post this because maybe the way I thought through it will help out other readers understand. It also makes sense why Secretariat is seen as a more successful broodmare sire than sire of sires. If his large heart was the predominat cause of his success (although he had a lot of other nice qualities, too) and it's sex linked, he couldn't have passed the gene to his sons, because he was only passing the blank Y to them, but he always passed this recessive gene to his daughters, whose sons were then much more likely to express the recessive gene than the daughters.
C More than 1 year ago
MudhoundMojo, I wasn't trying to come down hard on you, but I've seen a lot of posts (by several here) which cite final times achieved on different tracks/days as evidence to call the BSFs into question. For the record, the other factors I mentioned (easy vs. driving winners, trip, wind) are not part of the BSFs, but are used in other speed figures. Beyer only intends to separate the contributions of the horse's effort from the track's speed. The pace, trip, etc doesn't factor into the process, which is why Beyer urges everyone to examine HOW the figure was obtained. Of course, none of this matters if you don't use the figures as part of your handicapping. It sounds like you don't. Neither do I. Michael, Everyone does it their own way, but I agree with you. Roland, Big Brown has already dominated at 1 1/4 and 1 3/16, so it's a little hard for me to believe that his supposedly limited pedigree would suddenly kick in between 1 1/4 and 1 1/2. If he gets tired, I don't think his pedigree will be to blame.
Johnny Z More than 1 year ago
Steve V, Don't know the answer to your question but here a link to an ariticle about Dutrow's Graded Stakes winners: http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown08/columns/story?columnist=plonk_jeremy&id=3405495 Owenized, I saw that Storm Princess fired a bullet at Calder this morning, 3F H 35.40. Looks like she is doing well. Can't wait to see her in the gate!
Steve V. More than 1 year ago
And my other point about Dutrow: I would love to see his stats in Grade 1's(including Dubai World Cup Day)- when he has the favorite or maybe pick arbitrary odds of (5-1 or less). Dan or anyone else out there w/ access to it: Maybe take into acct. his statistics that are more recent than not so. Let me know: