05/13/2009 10:09PM

Preakness Prices

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So how are they going to bet this Preakness? I've heard and read as low as 6-to-5 to as high as 3-1 on Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra, with Derby winner Mine That Bird anywhere from the second choice at 4-1 to the fifth choice at 8-1. Pimlico linemaker Frank Carulli, one of the best in the business, made the filly 8-5, Pioneerof the Nile the 5-1 second choice, and Mine That Bird co-third choice with beaten Derby favorite Friesan Fire at 6-1 apiece. DRF's Mike Watchmaker tabs Rachel Alexandra at 9-5 with Mine That Bird the second choice at 9-2.

Just to refresh recent memory, here's how the the betting shook out by post time in the last three runnings of the Preakness:


In each of the last three Preaknesses, you had a Derby winner who had been the first or second choice in Louisville. It's a completely different situation this year with a favorite who didn't run in a Derby where the winner was 50-1. It might be more relevant to look at the last three Preaknesses that followed a longshot winner in the Derby:

The amazing thing about the 2005 betting was that despite a full field of 14, no one went off at more than 27-1. It was as if the betting public was still reeling from Giacomo's triumph at 50-1 and unwilling to let even a 30-1 shot run in on them two weeks later. Might we see the same thing in the wake of this year's 50-1 winner?

Thunder Gulch and Giacomo went off as third choices in the Preakness after their Derby upsets, while Charismatic was the fifth choice in 1999. In all three cases, all the horses favored over the Derby winner were coming out of the Derby, not new shooters such as Rachel Alexandra. In fact you have to go back 27 years to Linkage in 1982 to find the last Preakness favorite who didn't run in the Derby.

That was the year that Gato del Sol skipped the Preakness after winning the Derby at $44.40. Linkage, who won the Blue Grass but then skipped the Derby because longtime Maryland trainer Henry Clark was more interested in winning the Preakness and wanted the extra time, finished second at odds of 1-2 to fellow new shooter Aloma's Ruler ($13.80) -- the only Preakness in at least the last 50 years where a Derby runner was not part of the Preakness exacta.

Dave More than 1 year ago
I don't think RA's draw will hurt her since the distance to the first turn is enough for her to get to the front.
The_Knight_Sky More than 1 year ago
I agree with Jim. Rachel Alexandra can ill afford to break flat-footed or else she will wind up in the second tier, behind Big Drama and Tone it Down and looking to tuck in. That second flight may include Musket Man, Friesan Fire, Papa Clem, Pioneer of the Nile, Take The Points. The gal may never see the wood with any type of hesitation at the gate break. That said, I'd like to see the crowd send it in on the filly. She's beatable and does not have the type of an extended rest and tutelage Curlin had when he was transferred to the Asmussen barn. A completely different scenario to what has worked in the past for these connections. Lastly, I'd like to call your attention that there will be another DRF sponsored contest at my blog - HandiGamblers should find the rules familiar. Hope to see DRF cappers at my home page: http://theknightskyracing.blogspot.com/
steven_crist More than 1 year ago
matt_w: I assume they scheduled the G2 DuPont as race 2 because it's the only race on the card with as few as six betting interests. A 12-horse allowance race like the 5th, or an 11-horse starter-allowance like the 6th, will handle more in those later spots as betting begins to ramp up after noon. Wayne80: There's no evidence at all that fillies break down more often when they run against colts, and hundreds of examples of their being successful before and after the random Eight Belles incident. The question you keep posing is the equivalent of, "A blue-eyed man was hit by lightning walking down the street last year. Why isn't everyone outraged that a blue-eyed man is walking down the street this year?"
haelaih More than 1 year ago
Nice of SC to remember Aloma's Ruler ($13.80). The colt was trained by the late Butch Lenzini of Central Falls, RI who got his start working for his dad at Narragansett. I worked in the town and went into a place that sponsored my softball team when a friend comes up and sez "Butch's horse is ready and everyones betting him". The rest, as they say, is history. From all the wise chatter I see and hear the filly will go off at no less than 3-2 and maybe considerably higher as too many people are trying to beat her. Good Luck.
callmetony More than 1 year ago
Doesn't Mine that bird look like the biggest bounce horse in the field ? After running such a high Number for him his highest ever and only 2 weeks rest . Istn't that the logic of the bounce theory ? Anyway If he wins again I lose I think big drama can run a big one here and of course RA and i will also use musket man and Pioneer of nile . So I think Mine that bird off the board . Unless his best is in front of him ....God only knows any more .
George Quinn More than 1 year ago
I do not see why everyone thinks RA needs an extra week or two. Watching all of her replays, only one race last year was she even urged. All she has done is put on a series of public workouts for people. I think she is sure going to be fresh. But I still smell a rat. I would love to see Freisan fire drift up to 7 or 8 to 1. We have very short memories. Yesterdays beaten chalk todays 7-1 plunger? I question POTN on heart not on talent. We all wanted a million dollars to win on him at the top of the stretch in the derby. And we all lost our million. George in Tampa
Diceman More than 1 year ago
Hi Steve, I am pleased to share my Handicapping Analyis for the Preaknes. As you may recall, my Handic apping model is math based. I use 7 Critical Factors readily available in the DRF Past Performances. A maximum of 3 points is assigned for each factor. The total points achievable is 21. The following Horses are placed in Categories A, B and C with their respective point assignments: A Horses - I will use them in all Exoctic Bets: Big Drama - 16 Points Musket Man - 16 Friesan Fire - 16 Pioneerof the Nile - 15 Rachel Alexandra - 15 B Horses - They have a solid shot of hitting the top four spots: Papa Clem - 14 Points Take the Points - 13 Terrain - 13 General Quarters - 13 C Horses - Throw outs! However beware, please remember what happened with our KD Throw Outs: Mine That Bird - 12 Points Luv Gov - 12 Tone it Done - 10 Flying Private - 10 Track conditions will be a significant factor in the race outcome as it was in the KD. Remain flexible and observe track conditions and significant odds shifts prior to making your selections. I would love my Blogger Friends comments on the Point Assigments listed above and your own personal selections for the Preaknes. Good Luck, Cash Many Tickets and Enjoy the Most Wonderful Sport in the World! The Diceman
bochalls More than 1 year ago
Folks, if Rachel A gets hurt in the Preakness it WILL NOT be because she returned in 2wks. Barbaro's breakdown was not a result of him coming back on short rest (or at least no one has suggested that). Eight Belles hadn't run in about 7wks before the Derby. Have we been affected that much by those two tragedies that the danger of a breakdown causes people not to want to see the horses run? PLEASE! Yes, the Travers or Belmont carry more prestige, but racing must strike while the iron is hot. This is the race people (well, me at least) wanna see...boy v girl with the great twist of a jock switch. Waiting until those other races may prevent us from seeing the full field of bona fide contenders we have in the Preakness...will F Fire go in the Belmont? Big Drama? Papa Clem? I doubt any of those 3 will run in that race...we have THE race in front of us, yet many don't wanna see Rachel A run because they are afraid she will die. How many times have people posted complaints about short fields, dull cards, etc...? Enjoy this spectacle...I know I will from my seat at Pim somewhere WAY up the homestretch.
Matt W More than 1 year ago
How and Why would Pimlico schedule a grade 2 race as the 2nd race on the Preakness card at 10:33 am est.!!! Any explanations !!!??????
beerbelly More than 1 year ago
Belmont Alert for Thursday. Metereological conditions favour a speed bias on the dirt. Anybody remember Monastic Springs from '08? He's back. Race 7 on the turf.