05/14/2010 9:07PM

Preakness Eve 2010


Looking at Lucky was clearly favored over Super Saver in the Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness double pool, which attracted $837,210, but Super Saver was a narrow favorite in the Friday win-pool betting (Maryland only) of $126,351.

Here are the willpays on the double, with those payoffs then converted to equivalent win odds, as well as the actual win-pool totals from Friday:

Lookin at Lucky's support wasn't limited to those who liked Acting Happy; the last flash of double willpays showed him favored over Super Saver with 7 of the 9 Black-Eyed Susan runners. Super Saver was favored only with beaten favorite Tidal Pool ($20 vs. $21) and with 20-1 CC's Pal ($284 vs. $328.)

Paddy O'Prado is the third choice in the win pool at 8-1, but Dublin was the third choice in the double betting at the equivalent of 8-1.

If Lookin at Lucky in fact goes off as the post-time favorite, it would be the second straight year that the Derby winner was not favored at Pimlico. Mine That Bird was the third choice in last year's Preakness at 6.60-1, behind Rachel Alexandra (1.80-1) and Derby runner-up Pioneerofthenile (6.10-1.) Giacomo was also the third choice in 2005, at 6-1, behind behind the victorious Afleet Alex (3.30-1) and High Fly (5.10-1). Point Given was narrowly favored over Monarchos in 2001 when both went off at 2.30-1.

The Black-Eyed Susan card was a bit of a disappointment after 32 late scratches, which knocked races such as the Hilltop from 11 to 6 runners and the Miss Preakness from 7 to 5. No pick-6 carryover as there were four winners at $2707 apiece, but a $10,800 carryover wasn't going to get anyone's blood boiling anyway. And at least it appears that the two fillies and riders who went down on the far turn of the Black-Eyed Susan -- Diva Delite (Julien Leparoux) and Seeking the Title (Kent Desormeaux) -- emerged relatively unscathed, though Leparoux complained of body soreness.

Acting Happy, a Sigel family homebred by Empire Maker, is an interesting addition to the 3-year-old filly stakes ranks. She made the unusual move of winning her racing debut in a nine-furlong race (I'm remembering Pine Island doing the same thing [Update: It was 8.5f]), and then she ran second in a pair of allowance tries against the well-regarded Christine Daae and Streaker. 

First post for the Preakness card is 10:45 a.m.. I've got some midnight oil to burn.

track sloppy More than 1 year ago
Sunday Silence and all--the DD odds as shown on the SC display board can give an inkling as to what will happen.Add these to the Will-Pays and more info is there to be gleaned. I don't know how the DD odds were arrived at, but I'm inclined not to ignore the source of them.They come from some source that has thought this through, and one must use them to get the final figures. I would submit the actual win betting does little to help, as only roughly $120,000.00 was bet (all in Maryland ), much less than the DD pool of $900,000.00.
retroray More than 1 year ago
Thanks for the explanation Emily. The OTB where I play here in Arizona offers no sound or anyone explaining anything. One of my top insiders is touting Pleasant Prince to take the Preakness. Best of luck to all.
pat More than 1 year ago
Super Saver will not lose.. the horse for second is the Zito charge. that is one reason why Ice box is not in here. Jackson Blend fits better. Paddy O Prado does not have the speed to hold the front end here even though the charts show you he can. The speed will be much faster then the derby going into the half mile even on an off track. They will wait to gang up on Borel in the Belmont. hey it's good for racing. My bet is Super Saver on top of Jackson blend with all,all in the super...good luck folks!
peat moss More than 1 year ago
Pine island won her debut on turf,i think it was at mile an a sixtenth.Streaker the horse who beat acting happy is a half sister to pine island.Pine islands 2nd start was to be on turf,but was moved to the main track. [RIght you are. Won her debut at 8.5f on turf at GP 3/9/06, second start was a five-length victory in a Belmont off-the-turfer at 9f on 6/8/06. -SC]
Alan More than 1 year ago
I find it difficult to play mid-Atlantic tracks. Horses are cross-entered in multiple races and at different tracks, in the same day; a jockey can be listed on two-three horses in the same race; horses are entered, only to show full fields. The tote board is a labor to follow - scratched #s are displayed for exacta prices; the crawl with changes is too slow. I'm playing the 7th through 12th races at Pimlico, today. Friday's result payoff for the P6 shows a $1 payout. However, the enries in the drf do not indicate the minimum wager for any bet, as seen for entries at other tracks. The betting opportunities are set in capital letters in Pimlico entries. One day-a-year is enough for me.
Nick Milosevich More than 1 year ago
Mr. Crist, I was a little tardy arriving to the track today, not leaving me much time to scope out the early pick 4s at belmont and pimlico. After making my belmont play and watching the race, I had only a few minutes to finalize my pimlico play. As I do on many occasions, I handicapped the sequence backwards, leaving the 4th race for last. Obviously, the first thing I noticed was a foreign list of jockey names. I found it odd but hastily ran to the window and made my play anyway. All turned out well (hit the p4 for $198.50), but after the race when I found out who the jockeys were I wasnt overly pleased. Do you think it was somewhat out-of-line for pimlico to start a pick 4 sequence with a bunch of retired jockeys? Couldnt they have picked another race (like the first or the last)? I believe the cause the women are fighting for is quite noble and have no problem with them riding, but next time I would like to be more informed of the ongoings (a big blinking 'retired jockeys race' would have been helpful on the screen) and would prefer if the race held less importance parimutuelly. Your thoughts on this would be appreciated. Thanks.
Emily More than 1 year ago
Most of the late scratches were due to the huge thunderstorms late this afternoon. If it's wet tomorrow, bet the Malibu Moon horses.
yuwipi More than 1 year ago
Thanks for the chart info Steve. I'm loath to admit that the Preakness has reduced what I used to call my handicapping to the new low point of simply not believing that the racing gods will allow the Triple Crown to deteriorate into a succession of Calvin Borel pantomime acts. Unfortunately your numbers indicate that chasing Lookin' at Lucky to recoup my Derby losses will be difficult at such a short price. Suppose I better fire up my lamp too.
retroray More than 1 year ago
I am curious why so many late scratches at Pimlico on Friday. It must have had a subdued effect on the handle. I reduced my personal bets more than 50 percent because of this. Nonetheless some of the exotic's paid nicely with the inclusion of a longshot or two in those short fields. Whazzup? Another interesting matchup on Saturday's card is the 6th race, which features Baffert runner Quiet Invader with M Garcia riding and Gary D, Steve Asmussen trainer, with Gomez aboard. I'll stick with Baffert.
SundaySilence More than 1 year ago
Steve, the 4 paid $22.20 in the Black Eyed Susan, not sure your DD odds are correct? If Lookin@Lucky is 2-1 the return on the double would be $66.60 and believe he is slightly better on the willpays than 3-1 or $88.80 and Super Saver is near a 9-2 payoff. What am I missing here? [What I'm perhaps poorly explaining here is that I take the double willpays and extrapolate a win pool, and thus win odds, based on those willpays. If Horse X is selected on 28 percent of the live tickets, I'm saying he has 28 percent of a hypothetical win pool, and thus is the equivalent of 2-1 (in a jurisdiction with 16 percent win takeout.) -SC]