10/16/2008 1:53PM

Pre-entry Odds


The table below lists the first sets of odds on Breeders' Cup pre-entered fields, and there are some interesting differences between them in almost every race. (Only 10 of the 14 fields are listed: Ladbrokes has not put up lines for the four Juvenile races and these are tricky propositions given the number of horses cross-entered between the main-track and grass versions of both the male and distaff events.)

The first lines are those done yesterday by DRF handicappers Brad Free (Friday races) and Mike Watchmaker (Saturday races) for DRF's Breeders' Cup Advance. (Click here for their full pre-entry graded handicaps.) The second are prices released this morning by Ladbrokes, the British bookmaking firm.

The comparisons are not entirely apples-to-apples, on two counts. First, the DRF prices are a conventional morning line, meaning that they are purely a prediction of how the public will bet regradless of the handicappers' personal opinions about the merits of the entrants. Ladbrokes, on the other hand, is accepting wagers at their posted prices and there may well be some strategy involved in trying to get the better of their customers, including a different effective takeout and no refunds on non-starters. Second, the DRF lines include every horse pre-enetered for each race, even those who were cross-entered in two races, while Ladbrokes is offering prices on horses only in their "first preference" races.

Still, there are plenty of interesting and instructive differences of opinion. In the table below, horses being offered at sharply higher prices at Ladbrokes than the DRF handicappers are predicting are highlted in green, while those being held at much lower odds than DRF predicts you'll get on raceday are highlighted in pink.

The biggest Ladbrokes bargain to my mind, is 3-1 on Curlin(as opposed to Watchmaker's 8-5.) I have my reservations about whether he'll run as well on Pro-Ride as he does on dirt, but given that he'd be legitimately 3-5 if the race were at Belmont or Churchill, 3-1 just seems like an enormous price.

[Update 2:30 pm: I've added a third set of prices, just received from British bookmaker William Hill.]

buffalo joe More than 1 year ago
Flipper - Phone line is OK I'll be home all afternoon Sunday watching football on TV, horses on the computer give me a call if you get a chance. We have so many extensions my wife sometimes hits wrong button and does not hang up properly. Missed a chance I will never have to do again. I did not bet on Sandy Hawley's mount in the legends race at SA, had I bet him I would have been able to say I bet him on the first winner he ever rode and the last one also. not many, if any can say that.
Flipper Dawson More than 1 year ago
Woodbine on Saturday: Race 4-- I like #4 in here, yet my man in California says the 3 gets the picture taken. Whatever you play, if any money from race 4, push it all onto #10 in race 10 with Jono Jones aboard. Hint--do you know why I like the 4 in race 4? You don't?? Shame on you.!! I told you to watch for hints re BC. The USA has Steve Crist. Canada has the flipper. Pay attention!!!
Flipper Dawson More than 1 year ago
Bochalls--there are a lot of readers on here. I'll swap you with my longshot for your Mile nag. Doesn't mean I'll bet it.We can email each other. The PolyCrap takes a lot of desire away from me. I don't know what to expect. Will look at turf plays, but will really look at Super High Five. This bet is catching on like wildfire. There were 2 carryovers today. Pick 6 was $78,000.00 Super High Five was $211,000.00. When they left the gare, there was $478,000.00 in the Super High Five pool. My longshot is by a trainer who loves putting a high winner over. I've been watching this fellow, and he's been a very busy little bee. I feel confident he can get the job done. Another play may surface once the DRF cappers get their choices out. This angle guarantees a l--o--n--g-- price. I don't play every race. In fact, I go the other way. I wait until an angle pops up, and really, I could just watch the races unfold at home on Sat., but I have several tricks up my sleeve, and I'm waiting to take my shirt off. CU later.
Flipper Dawson More than 1 year ago
Gotta love that Super High Five. Had 4 of 5 in correct order with BLAME THE WINE in first, rather than second where she finished. All for a bet of $20.00. Sat is another day--the main thing is that with the Super High five, you don't spend a lot of money. My money was spent like this: $6.00 on my personal handicapping with BLAME THE WINE on top. BLAME THE WINE on top of 4 random picks. $10.00 worth of $1.00 random picks in any order. ( The machine does the work.) See my point? More than one way to skin a cat. ---------------------------- Also, tonight, was a very good night for me.Here in Ontario, beer and wine will be sold soon at variety stores. Guess who owns half a variety store?? Gotta love Canada!!! My only regret is that my time will be compressed quite a bit, and something has to suffer--not the nags, I hope. Buffalo Joe, your line is out of order--tried to call you--operator says nobody there.
Aksarben More than 1 year ago
Curlin at 3-1 probably reflects the fact that there is still a chance he may not end up running in the race. Ladbrokes doesn't give refunds. Also, regarding the Euro turf milers running in the Classic, it is likely a case of trying to increase their potential worth for breeding. There is no real breeding upside to winning the Turf Mile since they are already proven Turf Milers. If they run well in the classic and finish 2nd or 3rd it would likely increase their breeding potential.
Flipper Dawson More than 1 year ago
Here is a play for today at Woodbine. WILBERFORCE in the 9th at WO. Nice morning line, and the trainer DETORO has no owners--he is the owner of this plug. Most of his winners are high in odds. If you insist on playing the late DD, in race 8, use the 3-1 ML Fave onto WILBERFORCE. The nag in race 8 is Stormy Illusion.(3-1 in ML.) Your DD numbers are 3-2. If you're into doubles, try 3-12 in last two races at WO.The 12 is BAY PRINCE at a ML of 4-1.Your numbers here are 3-12.
jeff More than 1 year ago
Flipper... 4/5 and he runs second...UGH !!!
easygoer More than 1 year ago
How 'bout a discussion on how to handicap Pro Ride? I got no clue. Help me, please. Thank you.
yuwipi More than 1 year ago
slewofdamascus: Personally feel Indian Blessing is a lot shorter than her real chances of winning the F & M Sprint. Love what she's done since being turned back, and she might be good enough to get it done, but the likelihood of her being less than 2-1 sends me searching for another. Unfortunately for me Perkins/New Farm decided to retire Wild Gams while she still owed me cash from the Monmouth debacle last year. So a hunting I will go.
Steven_Crist More than 1 year ago
Don, Try this link: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pbIMJKZHxwrVWJXVKswGjSg