12/15/2016 3:27PM

Potential track bias alert

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Handicappers looking to exploit a potential track bias may want to review last Friday's results at Aqueduct.
 
I've attached the charts for the entire December 9 card to the bottom of this blog post if you'd like to scrutinize along with me. 
 
Pure speed horses prevailed in gate-to-wire fashion in Race 2 (BLIND DEVOTION, $5.30 second choice), Race 3 STORM PURSUIT ($4.60 favorite), Race 4 (BOW TOWN CAT ($3.80 favorite), Race 5 (CHILLY BON BON, $7.80 favorite) and Race 7 (DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING, $9.90 third choice).
 
In the other races, LORIMER STREET ($9.50 second choice) was a length behind the leader after the first call and a half-length behind after the second; SMILE BIG ($4.20 favorite) was a length in arrears after the first call and two heads behind at the half; and LEFTOVERS ($7.30 third choice) was a length behind at both calls.
 
At first blush, one could assume that it didn't hurt to have speed and be close to the inside. Was there a true bias, however? That is still left open to interpretation. All of the winners were fairly logical. Perhaps they were just the best horses on the day and their positions on the track were inconsequential. 
 
In attempting to uncover a bias, one must analyze all of the runners in a race, and not just the winners. Here, the jury is still out. 
 
Scanning the charts, it's hard to find a longer-priced horse making a dent in any race. OVER MY HEAD (third at 27 to 1 in Race 2) was the only true longshot that finished relatively close and he saved ground for most of the way after breaking from the rail. Perhaps the fact that Over My Head outran his odds while running inside offers some hope for speed/rail theorists, but I still would need more evidence before proclaiming the inner track a true golden highway.
 
Here is where video analysis can help us determine whether a bias was in play. 
 
The "feature" on the eighth-race card was Race 7, an 'n3x' optional claimer at 1 Mile and 70 Yards. The favorite, SEND IT IN, hadn't raced since March, but had gone to the sidelines in tremendous form, winning his last four races and five of his last six. Second-choice VOLUNTARIO was exiting a 99-Beyer victory over the main track and was stakes-placed earlier in the year.  Doyouknowsomething, while an honest-enough sort, didn't have a strong edge over the aforementioned duo on paper. 
 
Let's look at the trips:
 
Doyouknowsomething bounded out to the lead from the inside, set fractions of 23.40, 47.43, and 1:12.34 while saving ground, and held a comfortable lead turning into the stretch.

Send It In tracked three paths off the rail on the backstretch and attacked the pacesetter while under a ride on the far turn.

Voluntario uncorked a long three-wide bid from the rear of the field.

All three were in with a chance although it appeared Voluntario had the momentum while Send It In looked to be working the hardest of them all. 

 
Doyouknowsomething might have been on the best part of the track, but he also had the best trip. Thus, it wasn't very surprising that he held on to win. It did seem odd that Send It In, a horse that was hard-ridden on the turn, and might have been short off the layoff, dug in to deny a charging Voluntario for the place. Voluntario, in fact, appeared to be struggling mightily late and ended up 3 1/2 lengths behind Send It In after looming so boldly just a half-furlong before.

Watching the stretch run again (and NYRA has an excellent replay site with HD views - https://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/racing/replays), it looked like both Send It In and Voluntario were running on a beach while Doyouknowsomething had no issue with his inside footing. They just couldn't make up any ground in the final furlong. 

 
Watching that race, along with the other evidence, makes me think that speed and the rail were very good at Aqueduct on December 9. I'll put horses like Voluntario and Send It In on a watch list and look to root out other horses that might have been compromised somewhat on the afternoon. 
 
***
 
For free video analysis of some of the weekend's major stakes races, take a look at http://video.drf.com/
 
Also, Matt Bernier, Mike Beer and I will be on for free and fun handicapping analysis at 3pm ET on Saturday for DRF Live!. This week, we'll discuss Aqueduct, Gulfstream, and Los Alamitos. You can find us at live.drf.com
 
WATCH DRF LIVE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO RECEIVE A SPECIAL OFFER CODE TO SAVE 10% ON PAST PERFORMANCES, DIGITAL DRF AND DRF+. 
 
You can check me out on Twitter at DRF_Dan Illman
 
***
 
Dan – would you be so kind to publish sire stats and historical pp’s on Munnings. He does well on grass it seems (at least for me).
DavidM9999
 
You can find the lifetime past performances for MUNNINGS at the bottom of this blog post. 
 
Here are some sire statistics for Munnings:
 
Overall (by starts):
19% overall winners
17% overall debut winners|
19% all 2-year-old races
16% 2-year-old debut winners
11% first-turf winners
14% turf winners
 
If you blindly played all of his debut runners in 2016, you were rewarded with a $2.62 ROI (41-10-2-6) record. The prior year, Munnings cracked with 19% of his debut runners for a $2.29 ROI.
 
***
 
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 12/7/16 - 12/13/16:
 
1. DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING - 102 - OC 100k/C -N - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Inner Dirt) - 9Dec16-7AQU
2. DOLPHUS - 101 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 7 Furlongs - 11Dec16-4GP - 7 Furlongs - 11Dec16-4GP
3. DAD'Z LAUGH - 97 - Wcl c-20000 - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - 10Dec16-7AQU
4. BATTLE MIDWAY - 95 - Alw 50000s - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Inner Dirt) - 7Dec16-2AQU
4. ISABELLE - 95 - Bay Ridge Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Inner Dirt) - 11Dec16-7AQU
4. STORM ADVISORY - 95 - Alw 40000NC - 6 Furlongs - 9Dec16-7RP
7. MOBILE BAY - 92 - Louisiana Champions Day Classic - 1 1/8 Miles - 10Dec16-9FG 
8. MASTERY - 91 - Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity (G1) - 1 1/16 Miles - 10Dec16-6LRC
8. WHEATFIELD - 91 - Louisiana Champions Day Ladies Sprint - 6 Furlongs - 10Dec16-11FG 
10. CHIPS ALL IN - 90 - Alw 34017NC - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - 10Dec16-2GG 
10. PAULASSILVERLINING - 90 - Garland of Roses Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - 10Dec16-8AQU
12. ALPINE LUCK - 89 - OC 25k/C - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 11Dec16-6TUP
12. A. P. CINO - 89 - Clm c-25000 - 1 1/16 Miles (Inner Dirt) - 7Dec16-4AQU
12. BIG WORLD - 89 - Louisiana Champions Day Ladies - 1 1/16 Miles - 10Dec16-6FG 
15. DISTINCTIVE B - 88 - OC 40k/N$Y -N - 6 Furlongs - 9Dec16-7LRC
15. EKHLAAS - 88 - Alw 67000N1X - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - 10Dec16-6AQU
17. CHILLY BON BON - 87 - Alw 57000N1X - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Inner Dirt) - 9Dec16-5AQU
17. CHORUS LINE - 87 - Alw 67000N1X - 1 1/16 Miles (Inner Dirt) - 11Dec16-3AQU
17. MIA TORRI - 87 - OC 12k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - 9Dec16-8GP 
17. MYSTIC SKY - 87 - OC 16k/N1X -N - 1 Mile - 9Dec16-9GP 
17. THIRTYSILVERPIECES - 87 - Alw 21000N2X - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 7Dec16-6MVR
22. JUST JACK - 86 - Howard M. Bender Memorial Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 10Dec16-7LRL
23. HAIL TO THE NILE - 85 - Louisiana Champions Day Turf - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 10Dec16-5FG 
23. LOVABLE LADY - 85 - Willa On the Move Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 10Dec16-8LRL
23. MON PETIT POT - 85 - Clm 12500(12.5-10) - 6 Furlongs - 8Dec16-2FG 
23. PICCO UNO - 85 - Alw 57000N1X - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - 7Dec16-5AQU
23. TOP PIRANA - 85 - Alw 35514N1X - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - 11Dec16-7GG 
 
The lifetime past performances for Doyouknowsomething are available at the bottom of this blog post.
 
Dad'z Laugh was claimed for $20,000 by trainer Oscar Barrera III from Rudy Rodriguez.
 
A. P. Cino was claimed for $25,000 by trainer Dominick Schettino from Gary Sciacca.
 
***
 
Congrats to Alfredo for winning the most recent HandiGambling challenge.
 
Rick M and SR VEGAS' HG scoreboard spreadsheet is available at the bottom of this blog post. 
 
Alfredo selected Saturday's Bonapaw Stakes from Fair Grounds as this week's exercise. 
 
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
 
 
SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to update all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...
 
HANDIGAMBLING version 2016:
 
Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.
The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but SPARE A SENTENCE OR TWO outlining your HANDICAPPING ANGLES and/or THOUGHT PROCESSES about WAGERING.
 
1. Start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to find your entry in a thread.
2. You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose that is available for that HG race. Anyone going over the $100 limit will be DISQUALIFIED.
3. Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog prior to the start of the designated race. SIGN OFF WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF YOUR POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST SIGN YOURSELF AT THE END (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to identify who you are.
4. (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.
5. Separate your analysis from the wager and use the PROGRAM # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.
6. If any of the rules listed above aren't met, the wager is subject to review which can lead to disqualification of your entry.
 
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.
The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"
 
As an example :
 
HG 2016
The speed in this race are #1 Alpha, #2 Beta, and #8 Ocho. I like the works for layoff horse #5 Cinco who can sit off the pace. Lots of speed in here, so this could set up for a closer like  #6 Six Flags and I like the trainer's stats in these conditions. I’ll put the closer over the speed.
 
HG wager:
$10 EX   6 /   1,2,5, 8  = $40
$5 TRI   6 /   1,2,5,8  /  1,2,5,8  =  $60
Total $100
Thanks Dan!
Harpo
 
A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS  IS  ALWAYS  APPRECIATED !
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
 
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A SATURDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)
AttachmentSize
AQU129.pdf112.78 KB
MUNNINGS.pdf675.69 KB
DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING.pdf759.76 KB
Copy of HG 12 10 16 Wait a While.xls54.5 KB
HGBONAPAW.pdf231.67 KB