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The Post-Belmont Carryover
12:45 pm: Off-the-turf alert! Today's 9th race at Belmont, last leg of the pick-6 that begins with a $930k carryover from Belmont Stakes Day, has been taken off the grass. Four late scratches so far: Casa Di Vino (#2), Z Cats Meow (#7), Justinline (#8) and Ghoul (#10). It's just starting to sprinkle a bit now, but more rain is expected as the afternoon wears on.
The other scratches in the sequence: Augusta Dude (#8) and main-track-only Maxahme (#9) in race 4; Mariah Scary (#2) in the 5th; and the three main-track-onlies in the 6th (#1a-Spenserific, #2b-Dirt Track Demon and #12-Centripital). That leaves us with fields of 7, 6, 11, 9, 5 and 8 -- a mere 166,320 possible combos if you want to buy the thing and hope if pays more than $332, 640 after taxes.
I'll take the under on that one. It's a head-splitter with enough turf sprints and dismal lineups that anything can happen, but most of the races have pretty clear distinctions between the contenders and the hopeless. I've still got some ciphering to do, especially on the resurfaced finale.
The sequence is scheduled to begin at 2:36 p.m. but I wouldn't be surprised if they accelerated the card thereafter to beat the rain.
1:27 pm: The acceleration has been accelerated: Post time for the 4th has been moved up to 2:22 p.m., so get those tickets in.
2:15 pm: Seven minutes to post. Here's the matrix:
Taking the 9th off the turf simplified things for me (I hope). My strongest lean of the day is now in that spot, where Aquit looks like a stickout to me on the dirt. My other lone-A race is the opener, where I prefer Montana Knight to co-favored Macho Joe in what's being bet as a two-horse race. Given that both favorites are questionable droppers coming off losses as favorites, I also wanted solid coverage with the best of those who have been running solidly at this level, so I also made Scorper (currently 8-1) a B.
2:21 pm: Just heard an announcement over the public-address system: "Trainer Will Phipps, trainer Will Phipps, please go to the racing office." Hmmm, Will Phipps trains Aquit, the horse I just leaned all over in the finale. Sure hope it's a coincidence and not an impending late scratch. [Update: As commenters FrankEIU and Larry just pointed out, I got confused -- Phipps trains my lone "B," Night Spirit, not Aquit, who is trained by Seth Benzel. If I get that far, I'd sure rather have both of them than late-scratching into Aquit for a second time. I still wish someone would look into that system they reportedly have in Hong Kong, where if you've already got the favorite on your multirace ticket, you scratch into the next-lowest-priced horse you don't have instead of doubling up on the post-time favorite.]
2:28 pm: Macho Joe(8-5) beat Montana Knight(3-2) by about three lengths with Scorper third over a clearly still-hard Widener course -- six furlongs in 1:08.44 for these maiden claimers. Farewell my C's -- it's all A's and B's the rest of the way. Macho Joe is trained by Bill Mott, who started this whole mess by sending out Drosselmeyer to win the Belmont in the last leg of Saturday's pick-6.
2:45 pm: Today's pick-6 handle was about $3.3 million, 26 percent of which goes to takeout. Of the remaining 2.4 million, 75 percent gets added to the $930k carryover with 25 percent allocated for consolations whether or not the thing is hit. So we're playing for around $2.7 million in 6-of-6 payouts and $600k in consos.
2:55 pm: I'm not playing for the $2.7 million anymore and I suspect I have plenty of company. In a six-horse field, I used four of them and the other two just ran 1-2, with 21-1 Landlash nailing 18-1 Kaffiend at the wire. $2.7 million triple-carryover?
4:18 pm: Six of the eight in the finale are covered:
No offense to anyone who's alive, but...Let's go Auric Girl and Posey Park!
4:31 pm: Small point, but: NYRA and other tracks really need to fix the willpay programs for the pick-6, which assume that the morning-line favorite on the track program is going to be the post-time favorite. Today, for example, the four scratched horses in the finale have a pick-6 willpay posted of $306,964 only because that is the willpay to Pea Stone, the ML favorite before the race was taken off the grass. It's pretty clear that Aquit will be the post-time favorite, not Pea Stone. I doubt any of those posted payoffs to the four scratched horses are real instead of hypothetical (there are people alive who put in tickets before those horses were scratched out of the tote system shortly after noon?), but one of these days such a person is going to think he's won $300k when a Pea Stone wins when in fact his bet was transferred to Aquit. It would be better to post "Scratched" and no payoff than to make a customer think he will win $306,964 if Pea Stone wins when in reality he'd only get a consolation.
4:46 pm: Night Spirit over Aquit in a romp, and five winners at $552,535 apiece. Nice going, you five. As for me, I got four of those $884 consos from the cavemannish all-A's-and-B's ticket that accounted for $2880 of my $3420 investment. So that's $3420 in and $3536 out, a $116 profit that amounts to a $2.06 for $2 payoff. Woohoo.
I think one of the most important notes on the Post-Belmont Carryover is, with a very real threat of thundershowers, it is obvious that the NYRA track maintenance crew did what I call the "anticipatory backrake" that started in race 5 on that card. I am very confident that races 1 and 2 were fully harrowed tracks and races 5,8 and 9 were backraked and therefore the track was probably playing between 1 and 2 seconds slower. Race 1 was won by Felinefelon, a 3L15k claimer, who ran 7F in 124.60. Race 2 was won by a NYSBMSW horse Fight for VLT's in 110.80. FFV went 46.22 to the half and drew away from the field finishing up in 24.58. Compare that to the 8th race where Starforaday, a nice allowance horse went 111.38 for 6F and finished up 6 1/2F in 117.54. It is also noteworthy that Westcoast Flyer set the pace in that race running 46.63 to the half and finished last. ...The backrake that started in the 5th race on 6/9 was fairly obvious and I am sure that it has already been accounted for in their figures, nevertheless, I can state with absolute certainty that over the last 5 years there have been at least a few occasions where they have missed it... If you look carefully, you can see a visual difference in the track in races 2&5 where the the track went from fully harrowed to backraked. It definitely pays to keep your eyes open for that as it can be a powerful handicapping angle.
May I digress back to the weight falling out of the pad in the Belmont. I was talking to a retired jockey about it when he excitedly started telling me about an incident from the '60s at Atlantic City that Kott referred to in the previous Crist blog. It was a Stakes race (possibly $100,000) the horse involved was the favorite and he ran fourth. Refunds were to be paid on this horse. He recalled the place being a madhouse and the clerks cashing tickets all night with everyone dumpster diving. Maybe Mr. Crist can pull a story from the archives?
I made money on that Pick six...I got too lazy to drive to Lone Star Park to play it...Smart move for me. Glad some folks made money.....I am a budget bettor...hard to win with scared money, as we all know.
Steve, It doesn't seem that your ticket comports with the strtegy you adumbrated in Exotic Betting-what's with all A's and B's on one ticket-I thought the general philosophy was all A's-A's with one or two B's and each C with all A's-or did I read it wrong. [That IS the general philosophy, but I had so many B's and so many races with 3-4 evenly matched horses that instead of making out what would have been 31 tickets allowing three B's to win, I took the lazy way out for a few hundred more. -SC] Best,T.
Gotta ask, Steve... did you ever consider buying the second leg with the 3 & 5 as Cs for another $36? Nice job grinding it out today. Hopefully a big one awaits! [I thought they were impossible, and is turned out using them as C's wouldn't have helped me at all since I had so many B's rather than A's win. -SC]
Time to kiss off the Breeders' Cup? It looks like they'll be blowing off NY again in 2011. [http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=113839&subs=0&arc=0]
I am not sure why people are upset about the Twin Spires consortium hitting the big carryover Pick6. I think it's a great, innovative way for Twin Spires to separate itself out from all the other wagering sites. I usually play through Youbet.com but this makes me want to bet via TwinSpires (which obviously will be merged with youbet soon).
As for the pools it amazes me that a marketing diretoe someone does not set up a table at the track my track is Suffolk Downsand get people to put up 50-100 and try to get a few hundred people together to hit a track pool pick six seems like a great marketing move and fun for betters like myself who do not have the thousands to invest
Steve, I should phrased my question better -- I meant prior to the will-pays being posted. Last time I was at the Big A, I saw the Gulfstream feed give the number of live tickets remaining after each successive Pick Six race. Does the NYRA website (or any other, for that matter) have a page that lists such information? [The problem with that presentation at GP and SA was that it referred to live "tickets" rather than live individual combinations, so it wasn't much help in determining the likelihood of a carryover. The good info does exist on a race-by-race basis, but it would take changes in state law (in NY at least) to allow it to be revealed until the willpays are posted. -SC]
Steve, thanks for the clarification on the NYRA takeout structure for Pk 6. I wasn't aware of the differential. So I guess the takeaway from this is that Belmont is one of the best places to play a PK 6 on a non-carryover day and one of the worst to play on a carryover day. The following chart shows the major tracks around the country and their carryover PK 6 takeout and their "effective takeout" on the assumption of a $1M carryover and $2M subsequent day pool(with the dubious assumption that my math is right). Takeout EffectiveTakeout Belmont 26.00% 17.33% Churchill 19.00% 12.67% Gulfstream 15.00% 10.00% Hollywood 20.18% 13.45% SA, DMR,GG 20.68% 13.79% Keeneland 17.00% 11.33%