11/23/2011 1:09PM

Poor Rail Trip! Redeemed Moving Well


The amazing saga of RAIL TRIP continued last week at the Big A. 

Sent off as the 2-5 favorite in the Sunny and Mild Stakes on November 17, Rail Trip stumbled at the start and unseated his rider, Ramon Dominguez. 

The winner of the 2009 Hollywood Gold Cup, Rail Trip arrived in New York during the summer of 2010 to great fanfare.  Lingering foot problems limited him to one NYRA appearance that season and he failed to impress when fifth, beaten 16 1/2 lengths, while wearing an aluminum pad in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.  Rail Trip is 0-4 this year, but has placed in a pair of listed stakes events.  Although he hasn't won on dirt, he's run well enough that he can't simply be considered a synthetic wonder.  His physical problems - he's worn the aluminum pad in all of his races this year - make him suspect, however.  Rail Trip has immense talent, but he's been a constant source of frustration for his trainer, Richard Dutrow Jr., and his many fans. 


On the other hoof, Dutrow has to be well pleased with REDEEMED, a three-year-old son of Include that has never been off the board in eight lifetime starts.  Redeemed made it two in a row last week with an impressive score in the Grade 3 Discovery Handicap at Aqueduct.  He hasn't lost since adding blinkers and his tactical speed makes him very dangerous in these nine-furlong races.  Expect him to show up at Gulfstream over the winter with an eye toward graded stakes in the handicap division.


SANAGAS won't go to Gulfstream, but the up-and-coming turf performer looks primed for bigger and better next year after a dominating win in the Grade 1 Hollywood Turf Cup.  Trained by Graham Motion, Sanagas has a world of upside and may target races like the Arlington Million after a good winter's rest.


Here are the top 25 winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week (11/14 - 11/20):

1.  CONCHACER - 106 - OC 35k/N2X - 6 Furlongs - Hawthorne
2.  SAN PABLO - 101 - OC 50k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - Aqueduct
3.  MR GRUFF - 100 - Night Mover Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Turf) - Hollywood
3.  SHUDACUDAWUDYA - 100 - Alw 49692NC - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - Golden Gate
5.  SANAGAS (Ger) - 99 - Hollywood Turf Cup (G1) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - Hollywood
6.  ATLANTIC HURRICANE - 97 - Bessarabian Stakes (G3-C) - 7 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Woodbine
6.  NACHO BUSINESS - 97 - Sam's Town Stakes - 7 Furlongs - Delta
8.  BELLA MEDAGLIA - 96 - Treasure Chest Stakes - 1 Mile - Delta
8.  BE WELCOME - 96 - Alw 10000s - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Calder
8.  BLUES STREET - 96 - River City Handicap (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Churchill
8.  JUNGLE WAVE - 96 - OC 60k/N2X - 7 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Woodbine
8.  REDEEMED - 96 - Discovery Handicap (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles - Aqueduct
8.  RON THE GREEK - 96 - Sunny and Mild Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - Aqueduct
14. GROOMEDFORVICTORY - 95 - Adirondack Holme Stakes - 1 Mile - Aqueduct
15. DECISIVE MOMENT - 94 - Delta Mile - 1 Mile - Delta
15. ESSENCE HIT MAN - 94 - Kennedy Road Stakes (G3-C) - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Woodbine
17. ALL OF THE ABOVE - 93 - Alw 50960N1X - 6 Furlongs - Aqueduct
17. ATLANTIC KING - 93 - Alw 25000s - 6 Furlongs - Parx
17. DE PRICE - 93 - Clm 50000 - 6 Furlongs - Churchill
17. GALIENTOS - 93 - Alw 49741N2X - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - Churchill
17. RIVERSRUNRYLEE - 93 - Clm 25000 - 1 Mile - Calder
17. TIZ THE ARGUMENT - 93 - OC 25k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - Parx
17. UPSELL - 93 - Clm 18000(18-16) - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - Hawthorne
24. TRULY CLASSY - 92 - Alw 25000s - 6 Furlongs - Calder
25. BEAT THE BLUES - 91 - OC 100k/C -N - 6 Furlongs - Churchill
25. DR. SMARTY JACK - 91 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Hollywood
25. KENS CAPE - 91 - OC 25k/N2X -N - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Laurel
25. PLANTATION - 91 - A Huevo Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - Charles Town
25. SKIP A SMILE - 91 - Alw 40000NC - 1 Mile (Turf) - Remington
25. TRIP THE GENERAL - 91 - OC 20k/N2X - 6 Furlongs - Turf Paradise

Conchacer's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.


Two-year-olds will be featured over this long holiday weekend, with races like the Remsen and Kentucky Jockey Club for colts and geldings.  As of right now, here are the top Beyers for two-year-olds in 2011:

1.  J C'S PRIDE - 101
3.  OVERDRIVEN - 100
8.  MY MISS AURELIA (F) - 96
9.  ME AND MY GALS - 95
9.  SEEKER - 95
9.  UNION RAGS - 95
13. HANSEN - 94
13. UNION RAGS - 94
15. CANIGOTOO - 93
17. APPLAUDING (F) - 92
17. SHUMOOS (F) - 92
17. SISTER MOON (F) - 92
17. SWORD TRICK - 92
17. UNION RAGS - 92
24. MR. STYLE - 91
24. MY MISS AURELIA (F) - 91
24. TU ENDIE WEI (F) - 91

Kentucky Derby future odds (courtesy of Lucky's Las Vegas; updated 11/16/11, before the Delta Jackpot) are available at the bottom of this blog entry.


Dan, Laura,
I'm looking for any information - owner, trainer, etc. - you may have about a 2YO named Green Mystique (Cetewayo-On The Hop by Green Dancer). Is the colt in training?
Calvin L. Carter

A Pennsylvania-bred, Green Mystique hasn't worked yet and never went through the auction ring.  I'm not sure about his connections.  If I find out more, I'll let you know.


Dan or anyone else,
Aqueduct 11/12/11>>R7 Winner>>Consortium..What was his Beyer Fig, please ?
Curt V.

Consortium received a 79 Beyer for his winning debut at Aqueduct on November 12.  The juvenile son of Bernardini raced 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:17.10. He is a Darley homebred trained by Kiaran McLaughlin.  The dam, Marietta (by Machiavellian), won a pair of Grade 3 routes (one on synthetic) while the second dam, Minister Wife (by Deputy Minister), won the Grade 2 Demoiselle at nine furlongs. 


I'm doing some more research, can you post the PP's for
Frisky Thunder?

Frisky Thunder's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.


Congrats to Ronald H. for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise.  This week's race will be the tenth at Fair Grounds on Turkey Day.  PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.


I'll be on the road bright and early tomorrow for some Thanksgiving festivities with the family so I'll have to miss HG this week.  Best of luck to all and have a wonderful holiday weekend!

Conchacer.pdf62.47 KB
Ky Derby Futures updated 111611uz.pdf25.9 KB
Frisky Thunder.pdf63.86 KB
HG259.pdf188.12 KB
Dick W More than 1 year ago
Jimi Congrats and good choice for this weeks contest. Forecast looks terrific. David M Great post to Ron Z on maidens. Dick W
Calvin L. Carter More than 1 year ago
Laura, Thanks for the update on Green Mystique and Chicago.
Laura More than 1 year ago
Calvin, Judith Barrett of Godstone Farm in PA is Green Mystique's breeder and she gave me the info. I don't know John Lopez. I've asked around and no one else knows who he is either. He might be a pinhooker, since some of them stay at the training centers in the winter. Coolemore connection said Chicago had some minor baby issues but they hope to bring him back in the Spring. Laura
David M More than 1 year ago
Ron Z: I embrace handicapping maidens. In fact I search out sequences where it is MSW, Turf, MSW or vice versa. Why? Many of the sharpest handicappers don't have or lose there edge in these type of events. I think it levels the playing field. If it weren't for these races I would be playing golf on weekends. One thing that does not work for many on this blog is the ability to actually lose and endure losing streaks. I know playing maidens is not going to be a high percentage play. I can't hit 50% in these races nor do I seek to. The plays I look for are all value or longer odds horses. What is wrong with hitting 15% if they are 12-1. I have no probelm losing 10-15 bets in a row. I know these plays stand the test of time for me. Again, I know going in a lot of tickets are going on the floor. My ego is such I don't have to win daily. Would be nice but my style won't accomodate it. I bet much heavier in theses events while looking for horizontal and vertical scores both in these races. Rules I tend to follow on maidens are: 1) Am very judiciuous betting firsters. Only trainers with proven statstics even get a look. That eliminates 90%. Often even if it is Wesley Ward at KEE in April I may pass on him too if he is overbet on reputation only. Simply tired of debuters walking out of the gate and losing all chance. 2) Know which trainers work fast and which don't. Headley & Baffert demand, Asmussen does not. 3) Impute strong improvement for horses in start two as BSB mentions. Getting beat 15L in debut I look at like a strong workout and educational. Love to see horse bred for speed like Wildcat Heir's show nothing in start 1. Bet them back at 12-1 in start two. Trouble lines in debut add to the amount of the bet. 4) One class movement up or down does not faze me either if the price is right. Trainers may not know what they really have at this stage. My best friend had a future Hall of Famer trainer run a maiden for $50k that won multiple stakes, made $500,000 and was later sold for $1M. Sometimes they simply get fooled by juveniles. Turf Maidens offer the best value IMO. Now you have two unknowns, surface and talent. Here I make most all my profit (up nearing 5 figures for 2011 betting small to medium). The whales, their computer programs, the sheets players what do they do with these races? Often they avoid or scratch their heads and just order another Gey Goose. I jump in with both feet. 1) Know turf sires. Not talking Kingmambo, Dynaformer or Smart Strike. The public and DRF pick those kind every day. They are underlaid typically. 2) Find lower profile sires like Cactus Ridge, Northern Afleet, Horse Chestnut, Bernstein, Stormy Atlantic (no sceret now), E Dubai that can often move up on turf. These are some that run well for me when I bet. The best scenario is a sire that throws poor dirt runners but much higher on turf. The trainer gives the horse one on dirt for education. He loses by 20L. I bet these kinds heavy. Not all win but a ton do and 95% of the public cannot catch on. They equate dirt and turf form as equal. I see them as mutually exclusive. 3) Some of the sires in point 2 are especially very good at mid level tracks like Lone Star, Calder, Laurel, Ellis, Arlington. You won't see many Cactus Ridges at SAR or Del Mar. Some show stats of win rates at 12%. However if you get 15-1 then that is value. Trust me when they win, they pay. 4) Look for hot new sires and get out in front of the curve. For example I look at the charts of every single turf race every day. I know what new sires are winning. War Front is no secret now but he was last year. Honestly I was on him from day one having Danzig blood and I assumed he would perform on grass. Call it a leap of faith but it worked. Some very good scores. Many moons ago I saw Stormy Atlantic's moving up huge on grass. I jumped on them early and heavy. Many nice wins sprinting and up to mile on grass after abysmally poor dirt efforts. City Zip 4-5 years ago was same thing. Now even the shoe shine boy knows that angle so move on unless you get favorable odds. 5) Know the trainers who can win on turf. Some great ones like Larry Jones are bet against on the surface. Asmussen, Zito, and Baffert typically are only average (12-15% while much double that on dirt) but fans pour it in on them like it is dirt. I don't like them on turf usually. Mott, Attfield, Clemente usually run better for me on grass. Other like Chad Brown, Chris Block, or David Carroll can win anywhere anytime and are not as high a profile. 6) The so called "super trainers" often (nothing is absolute) do not win at the unworldly high strike rates on turf. No need to name names but check these guys out on turf. Usually much lower. Not sure if it is becuase turf racing can require relax and finish styles and the "fire breather's" usually race to the top with no quit in dirt sprints. When betting turf or turf maidens I love betting against super trainers. I think they are underlays. 7) Don't let the odds board deter you. I have a friend that says everytime "he is dead just look at the 20-1" on board. I say double up my friend, keep digging till you hit lint in your pocket. The public is totally betting in the dark on most of these races. Expect the odds board to be askew. I love CD's Stars of Tommorow days. Made few thousand on first one. Look for tracks like Laurel or Colonial. They run lots of turf races. Plenty of opportunity to be had. In summary these are great races to bet if you have the constitution for it. Like to avoid losing streaks or walk out of the track shouting to the heavens you won again forget it. Like to end the year in the black think about it. That is my story Ron Z. Good luck!
meathead01 More than 1 year ago
David M. great post on maidens very informative to say the least but all the secrets are out of the barn and your roi might suffer ya think. a lot of good info in this post ron z take note. MH01
Sam M. More than 1 year ago
Dan, Can you post the PP's of the horse 'Aqab'? I purchased them recently at the drf store, but the pop-up format used in the drf store won't allow me to access them on my mobile phone. Thanks, Sam
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Curt V Sure. I get my information from: www.chef-de-race.com Which will explain the mathmatical way they approch these numbers and more details of how it is applied. It also explains DI and CD numbers. I would encourage you to take a look. In short the numbers (as read left to right) align with these : Brilliant - Intermediate - Classic - Solid - Professional covering the spectrum of speed to endurance. My take on these (for maidens) is the higher the number in Brilliant-Intermediate-Classic, the better. Solid -Professional are markers for stamina and endurance, which are important as well, when the horse is stretched out. here is the link for a review on dosage. http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/review.htm You will love this site, click around and it will show you Dosage for almost everthing. http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage.htm I hope this helps and that I kinda' answered your questions :)
Curt V. More than 1 year ago
SR Vegas, "I also look for a better bred horse in total pedigree numbers. Curt V would say ..WT F..?........">>Oh!! Very funny...funny....... Union Rags DP 9-1-10-2-0 shows a high number up front 9-1 , a 10 in classic distance, and a 2 in solid/ distance points. total (22).. SR, I'm very interested in your adaptation of the #'s in pedigreequery. The site I'm familiar. So darling, in between the plethora of things you do all at once{remember the chat room ?}, could you kindly expound upon the placement of the #'s..You said the higher the better..Check.. Early #'s speed..Check..What I would like is the following please:using the above Union Rags would suffice..>DP 9-1-10-2-0 Placement of the #'s 9> in the 1st spot means what ? I need the explanation in words.. 1> in 2nd spot means what ? 10> """""Here you said Classic distance.... 2>""""""you said solid distance points........ 0>""""" ........... Unlike BSB's well kept secret...He likes it to be esoteric..I'd be interested if you would teach me if you will...Thanx... Curtista L. Slewster, at your service........if you need to explain in person I can e-mail you or Visist/Slewsist......Lmao...either way, I like it & want more........
Turnbackthealarm More than 1 year ago
Ron Z, I am not sure if I posted this before, I remember thinking about it, but Thanksgiving and all the festivities intervened. (We also banned all smart phones and laptops at my brother's house, so it was truly a lovely family event.) I have read some great posts on betting maidens and don't have anything original to add, but I can expand on a couple of things posted by David M and meathead. Like Meathead, on second time starters, I look for trouble lines. If there is a trouble line in a first start and then the horse comes out and runs evenly or perhaps gains some ground the second time, I will bet them on the third go round if the odds are right. For some of the babies, it takes a race to show them that racing is not always a bad thing. Regarding the super trainer Todd Pletcher: He gets a lot of very well bred babies, obviously. Along with Magnier, et al, one of his biggest clients is James Scatorchio, who happens to be part or majority owner of More Than Ready, Scat Daddy and English Channel. Even though the More Than Ready siring turf winners secret is out, these Pletchers are not as heavily bet. That's how I had Stopshoppingmaria at pretty decent odds as part of my exacta on BC day. Scat Daddy is cranking out precocious winners and with Johannesberg on top and Nijinsky two back, I would be shocked if he didn't get some nice turf winners.....but I can almost guarantee that he will try them first on dirt. English Channel's will probably start and stay on turf for Pletcher. So, with this type of lineup from one of his major owners, I would expect Todd to work his magic with more turf runners going forward. Did you think I'd forget my boy Hard Spun?...........One thing most bettors remember is that all his exploits came on dirt. But pedigree geeks know that he has the potential to be a hidden turf influence. Therefore, I think most trainers are going to start the babies on dirt, unless they are Graham Motion, Christophe Clement, Michael Matz, Jonathan Sheppard, etc.... In addition, Darley has bred some of their lovely broodmares to support him.........many of which are bred for turf. My favorite angle is to find a Hard Spun that has bombed on dirt, especially going short. I have caught a few good prices when all of a sudden, they show up going a mile or so on turf. The secret is out that he is a precocious sire, with he and Scat Daddy ding donging it for leader of the First Crop Sire list, but amazingly, lots of his turf babies get overlooked. Another under the radar sire for turf maidens is Kitalpha. He is an unraced full brother to Kingmambo. He was a leading sire overseas and was imported. His first US crop is very small, but next year's is huge. I bet the ones from his current crop of two year olds when they are on turf only. They bomb on dirt, with the exception of one I follow. Alan turned me on to him and following his progeny has been interesting. Last but not least, watch the post parade. The maidens, especially the firsters, give out a lot of signals as to their state of mind.
Laura More than 1 year ago
Ron Z, I wrote an article regarding handicapping maidens in April. Here's the link: http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com/files/Download/4-7-11MaidenHandicapping.pdf Also at the IMT website are the sire lists - those who produce 18% or higher mudders, turf runners, precocious sires and Steve T's famous Poly Ped lists. Also, Steve T. wrote an excellent article regarding predicting maiden progression: http://www.thoroughbredink.com/PredictingMaidenProgression.html Hope this helps! Everyone has great suggestions for betting maidens. Calvin, Your welcome. I'm happy to help anytime. Laura
Turnbackthealarm More than 1 year ago
Maybe horseracing isn't really dying................HBO has a new series coming soon. Here's the link: http://www.hbo.com/luck/about/index.html
Annie More than 1 year ago
TBTA, Yes, I've been reading about that new HBO series "Luck". Unfortunately, it looks like they will be making the series thrilling for the masses by showing the darker aspects of racing and betting. Not really a good thing for the love of horseracing, I should think. I'm a little worried about that. Annie