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Point of Entry and Animal Kingdom Throw it Down!!!
By Dan Illman
The ANIMAL KINGDOM - POINT OF ENTRY showdown began a bit early last Saturday when the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner's new jockey, Joel Rosario, made a premature midrace bid.
One could understand why Rosario made the move. On paper, there was no early pace in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap and Todd Pletcher's SALTO had just walked the dog through fractions of 25.07 and 50.52. Rosario, already behind John Velazquez and Point of Entry, didn't want to give up too much ground when the real running began turning for home.
Thus, the real running began late on the backstretch. Animal Kingdom, racing down on the rail, and the three-wide Point of Entry engaged in a thrilling match race for the final five furlongs. Both horses shaded 57 seconds for the final five-eighths with Point of Entry outstaying Animal Kingdom in the final sixteenth. It was a huge performance for both top-class runners, but the race left onlookers asking only one question:
Did Rosario cost Animal Kingdom the race?
We'll never know for sure, but the early move turned the race into more of a staying contest, a contest that may have favored the long-winded Point of Entry. If Rosario had waited until the quarter pole, he may have better utilized Animal Kingdom's burst of speed and attacked Point of Entry as the stayer was still revving his engine.
Instead, Point of Entry received more time to get into the heat of battle. That may have decided the race, but one can't deny that both horses ran exceptionally well. Third-finisher UNBRIDLED COMMAND had his five-race win streak snapped, but he lost nothing in defeat as he completed his final three-eighths in 33.50 seconds.
*The improving GRAYDAR took advantage of an awkward beginning by speedster ULTIMATE EAGLE (grabbed quarter) and made the front over a track and distance (Gulfstream, nine furlongs) that plays nice to on-the-pace runners. Still, we have to give the Todd Pletcher-trained colt credit as the Grade 1 Donn Handicap was only his fourth lifetime start and his first around two turns. He now has three triple-digit Beyers in his career and has thrust himself among the leaders of the handicap division on the East Coast.
You can find the latest "Under the Radar" column here:
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures (2/4/13 - 2/10/13):
1. GRAYDAR - 109 - Donn Handicap (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - Gulfstream
2. POINT OF ENTRY - 107 - Gulfstream Park Handicap (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
3. FORT LOUDON - 100 - Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship (G3) - 7 Furlongs - Gulfstream
4. DISCREET DANCER - 98 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - Gulfstream
5. GOLDEN MYSTERY - 96 - Hurricane Bertie Stakes (G3) - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Gulfstream
5. SLIM SHADEY (GB) - 96 - San Marcos Stakes (G2) - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - Santa Anita
7. COLIZEO - 95 - OC 50k/N2X - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
7. CONGENIAL - 95 - Wcl 26000(30-25)N2L - 1 Mile - Oaklawn
7. FLASHY GRAY - 95 - OC 75k/N1X -N - 7 Furlongs - Gulfstream
10. HERBAL PROSPECTOR - 94 - Clm 15000(15-12.5)N2L - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
10. PIANIST - 94 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - Gulfstream
10. SALUTOS AMIGOS - 94 - Md Sp Wt 57k - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
13. BET SEATTLE - 91 - OC 32k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - Oaklawn
13. B SHANNY - 91 - OC 25k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
13. GENTLEMEN'S BET - 91 - OC 16k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - Oaklawn
13. GHOST IS CLEAR - 91 - OC30k/SAL15k - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
17. CHANNEL LADY - 90 - Suwannee River Stakes (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
17. JAN'S PERFECT STAR - 90 - Md Sp Wt 53k - 6 Furlongs - Oaklawn
17. MANITO - 90 - Clm 16000(18-16) - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Laurel
17. OBVIOUSLY TUESDAY - 90 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
17. PARABELLUM - 90 - Alw 41000N1X - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
22. DARK COVE - 89 - Clm 40000 - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
22. MOTOWN MEN - 89 - OC 25k/N$Y -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - Santa Anita
22. PERFECT TITLE - 89 - Md Sp Wt 39k - 1 1/16 Miles - Fair Grounds
22. PURIM'S DANCER - 89 - Wishing Well Stakes - About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
22. SUMMER HIT - 89 - Alw 70734N1X - About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
22. UNSTOPPABLE U - 89 - OC 32k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - Oaklawn
GRAYDAR's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Do you think Honorable Dillion can stretch out to a longer distance? Can you post the PPs for his sire Tapit?
I think HONORABLE DILLON will be more of a sprinter/miler than a true distance horse. He's a half-brother to Liquidity Trap, a stakes-placed miler on grass. Their dam won going seven furlongs on dirt in Argentina and was stakes-placed at a mile. He is still very awkward with his lead changes and that may hurt him when he faces better horses at longer distances.
TAPIT's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog entry.
Does each race horse that runs in the USA have some type of computer chip in their saddle that is used to electronically compute their run times?
No. The leader's times are clocked at the fractional markers. We use lengths behind, which are approximated by the chart-caller, for the other runners. It's obviously not a perfect system.
Mike A, Steve T, Dan, or anyone else
I handicapped the Donn as well and spent the last couple of days scratching my head. Not that Graydar won, but that the oddsmaker and the public thought this was something like a 5-1 proposition.
Was it just Petcher?
The connections had a good deal to do with how Graydar was bet, but he also was a horse that showed two triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures from three races and the public loves to bet high numbers. Also, he had an excellent inside post for the nine-furlong distance at Gulfstream Park. If you hated Graydar, then 5-1 was an extreme underlay. If you thought he had some upside potential and could improve off his performances against weaker competition, well, 5-1 may have been an underlay as well.
Can you post Point of Entry, John Henry and Manila for comparison?
Those past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Dan, Many years ago I cashed a large wager on accomplished turfer Double Booked, would love to see his PP,s if possible, also would be very interested in seeing the workouts preceding Zenyattas debut. Thank you in advance if this is possible....
Double Booked's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Here are Zenyatta's published worktab leading up to her career debut on 11/22/07:
HOL - 11/17/07 - 5F - All Weather Track - 01:02.40 - Breezing Gate - 43/51
HOL - 11/09/07 - 6F - All Weather Track - 01:14.80 - Breezing Gate - 15/18
HOL - 10/29/07 - 6F - All Weather Track - 01:15.00 - Handily - 17/24
HOL - 10/21/07 - 5F - All Weather Track - 01:02.40 - Handily - 37/52
HOL - 10/10/07 - 5F - All Weather Track - 01:01.00 - Handily - 15/34
HOL - 10/01/07 - 5F - All Weather Track - 01:00.80 - Handily - 24/54
HOL - 09/20/07 - 4F - All Weather Track - :49.80 - Handily - 17/23
DMR - 08/21/07 - 4F - All Weather Track - :48.80 - Handily - 10/31
DMR - 08/07/07 - 5F - All Weather Track - 01:02.20 - Handily - 19/30
DMR - 07/30/07 - 5F - All Weather Track - 01:04.20 - Handily - 62/67
DMR - 07/22/07 - 4F - All Weather Track - :52.00 - Handily - 73/80
HOL - 07/13/07 - 4F - All Weather Track - :50.40 - Handily - 40/48
HOL - 01/29/07 - 5F - All Weather Track - 01:02.40 - Handily - 50/60
HOL - 01/22/07 - 5F - All Weather Track - 01:01.60 - Handily - 38/51
HOL - 01/08/07 - 5F - All Weather Track - 01:00.20 - Breezing - 5/38
HOL - 12/28/06 - 5F - All Weather Track - 01:02.00 - Handily - 56/83
HOL - 12/16/06 - 5F - All Weather Track - 01:02.60 - Handily - 31/48
HOL - 12/09/06 - 5F - All Weather Track - 01:01.40 - Handily - 29/68
HOL - 12/01/06 - 4F - All Weather Track - :47.40 - Handily - 11/37
HOL - 11/24/06 - 3F - All Weather Track - :36.80 - Handily - 8/19
HOL - 11/17/06 - 3F - All Weather Track - :37.20 - Handily - 5/17
HOL - 06/10/06 - 3F - Dirt - :37.00 - Handily - 13/33
Somebody commented, "that Storm Cat blood has never crossed the finish line 1st in the Kentucky Derby.."......Not talking about lower placings, just 1st.
Someone else said, Tabasco Cat won the Preakness & Belmont, & Shack won the Preakness. Other than that? Is this true ? If it is, it's just as important to be able to toss horses, as it up's our chances. This comment took me aback.
Save me a lot of time. Can anybody let me know if this true ? I'm not even sure what he means by Storm Cat blood. Any Storm Cat at all in the pedigree, or just Storm Cat's immediate progeny. ThanX in advance.
It's amazing, but Storm Cat doesn't appear in the pedigrees of past Derby winners. His sire, Storm Bird, is represented, but Storm Cat's progeny have failed to make their mark on the first Saturday in May. Storm Cat's grandson, Menifee, finished second in the 1999 Derby. His son, Cat Thief, ran third that same year. Grandson Lion Heart placed second in 2004 while Storm Cat's son, Bluegrass Cat, finished second in 2006. Great-grandson Denis of Cork finished third in 2008.
Can you post the lifetime past performances for Havre de Grace?
You can find them at the bottom of this blog post.
Although the 49ers didn't win the Super Bowl, the Bay Area can take some solace that Mike Beer and I will be at Golden Gate on Saturday for a discussion of the El Camino Real Derby card at 11am in the Paddock Pub. We'd love to meet you.
If you'd like, you can follow me on Twitter at DRF_DanIllman.
Congrats to Scott for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise.
PENN NATIONAL RICK'S WEEKLY SCORESHEET IS AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
Scott selected Friday's seventh race at Gulfstream for this week's contest.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.
PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKER AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY AND/OR ANALYSIS.
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
***FROM SCOREKEEPER PENN NATIONAL RICK***
I read some entries on here and there are some people who put their heart out on their picks(such as DavidM9999) and give you great analysis on who they like and why and then there are others who elect not to give any reasoning behind their entries. The rule I will implement EFFECTIVE 3/1/13 will be... any entry without ANY analysis will be ignored. We are not asking you to put out a novel, but again a sentence or two. Also, I will put communication out when Dan puts out new blogs.
My intent is not to be jerk on this, but what's fair is fair. I'm not taking away from this week or past winners regarding all of this, but we do need to make the change.
If you have any questions/concerns...please send an email to FORMBLOG@DRF.COM and it will get forwarded to me.
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATE THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL).
Best of luck to all.
Will be heading to Golden Gate on Friday for Saturday's handicapping discussion.
The weekend handicapping videos should begin appearing on the homepage around Thursday evening.
|Point of Entry.pdf||61.44 KB|
|John Henry.pdf||104.82 KB|
|Havre de Grace.pdf||53.88 KB|
|Copy of Formblog Contest Gulfstream 2-8-13.xls||45.5 KB|
Iam looking for the past performance lines on a horse I owned named sixthirtyjoe who raced mostly at northlands park in Alberta and a few starts at woodbine.thanks Dan we bought his dam in foal for 200$ I know a very cheap buy but one hell of a great gelding made close to 600k
Annie Have you any info on my MKB colt Positively ? havent heard anything as of today thanks MH01
MKB Workouts 2/19/13 Ocala Training Center- all weather/fast Uncaptured -4F 0:47.80 Breezing- Knm ..A Bullet! Oaklawn Park - dirt/fast Oxbow - 4F 0:48.40 Breezing -Scott ...A Bullet! Palm Meadows -dirt/fast Tesseron -4F 0:49.04 Breezing - Tom W Whiskey Romeo -(gate) 3F 0:38.45 Breezing -Capt Ron Santa Anita - dirt/fast Power Broker -4F 0:48.80 Dan Illman 2/20/13 Palm Meadows - Dirt /fast Indy's Illusion -5F 1:02.24 Breezing- Stella Calder- dirt/fast Little Distorted -4F 0:49.00 Breezing - Dick W SR Vegas
I may regret this , but here goes ... Black .HG If I'm not worried about why Alejandro Anzo posted and wagered as he did, why are you? He explained in a second post what he did. I'm not crying foul and neither did PNR. The only one to gain from HG this week would have been me, having come in a distant 2nd. And I'm fine with it. We have given out winners with NO analysis in the past , now that PNR has asked for it ...suddenly it's all under a microscope, and likely will be now until 3/1 when a HG wager will be tossed automatically if there is no analysis. So leave it be. Alejandro is new to the formblog and likes the community. I like new faces. So , PLEASE don't go looking for a fight where there is none. Papa Bear is becomming a Grumpy Bear :) SR Vegas sorry about Smarty Jones in the past , but she should jump back in to HG if she has the time :)
Alex Thanks for the note ...sooner or later I'll start to print the pp's for HG and use as a worksheet. Sooner may be better :) SR Vegas
Curtis V, We are getting there, but only very slowly. I am happy to "bite" every time if it helps to advance international relations. Its great that we now agree that Sea The Stars didn't duck Zenyatta. That WAS a yes, Curtis, WASN'T IT? I am sure that if you had more time you would eulogise Sea The Stars even more, but what the heck. Let me. Was Sea The Stars the greatest? No. Was he one of the very best? Most certainly. Was his 3 year old racing programme in 2009 outstanding? Definitely the best of the 21st century and before. I am sure I have done this previously, but allow me to repeat. 2 May 2000 Gns 8 furlongs straight Good to Firm ground WON by 1.5 lengths 6 Jun Epsom Derby 12 furlongs left handed Good ground WON by 1.75 lengths 4 Jul Coral Eclipse 10 furlongs right handed Good ground WON by 1 length 18 Aug International 10 furlongs left handed Good to Firm ground WON by l length 5 Sep Irish Champion 10 furlongs left handed Good to Yielding ground WON by 2 lengths 4 Oct Arc 12 furlongs right handed Good ground WON by 2 lengths That adds up to 6 consecutive Group 1 wins in 5 months. In 3 different countries. At 8, 10 and 12 furlongs. Straight, left handed and right handed. On 3 different ground conditions. Six of the most competitive races in Europe, including a 12 runner Derby, a 15 runner 2000 Gns and a 19 runner Arc. I am not sure how you beat that record at Group1 level. Best Regards - Bernard Downes P.S. I was never a cruiser and I have never owned any foam dice or foam onions. Sounds kinda kinky. You Yanks are not going funny are you? Didn't you used to play chicken with your cars or do that Thelma and Louise thing?
Htiek, You do so many NormaniZms, it's improsable ot flowollow dem awl. Ewe are won bad speller. Do you use a Chi-Knee keypad ? I don't have to go back far at all to find your latest & most profound NormaniZm to date. I don't have the singing group confused w/you. You are most assuredly NORMAN CROSBY....Pay attention::::: It is NORMAN CROSBY.......Note the R after the C, & before the O, as in CROSBY... Ytry groogling it.......After googling it, you get back to us. There is no such person as NORM COSBY......No, it's not Bill Cosby's brother either. Hey Zeus Christo already w/you.......Forget about visual spell correctors for you. Try getting an audio spell checker. Kurtis Vree Shuluester............
Another thought, Slewster: When it comes to your Normandy Invasion, he did fare well in the Experimental Free Handicap weightings, with his 118 fig, but his DI of 3.80 is ranging up there near the 4.00 cut off recommended for Classic distance runneers.. I'll compute his CD after Saturday and get back to you on that. As to the still much maligned Dyanmic Sky (aka "Plodder Dynamo"), his Exp Free Handicap rating was 117, and you have his sweet DI and CD figs in the earlier post! Lets see what we have with Normandy Invasion after Saturday, and compare him to Oxbow and Dynamic Sky then. He's been off since Nov, 12 afterall! As to your speedster Itsmyluckyday, well, he didn't make the cut on the Exp Free Handi figs with his 112 as noted before, but his 3.00 on the DI and 0.79 CD fares well compared to Super Ninety Nine, double 100 and 101 back to back Byeres with his 111 Exp Free Handi ranking, and his above the cutoff line of 4:07 on the DI and 0.89 CD figs. Perhaps more reason why Baffert isn't that anxious to come back for the Rebel Stakes with this one....he'll have to concentrate on stamina 6 and 7f drills with him and try to come up with an alternative other race where they can experiment with getting him to rate behind the pace, I do believe, before thay tackle one of the 9f races, like the Ark Derby or SA Derby! Just telling it like it is! Keith L.
Curtis V. Slewster: Be sure you peruse my thoughts on the "Dynamos" carefully, you just might spot a "Normainism" lurking there! LOL! Ketih (aka: Norm Cosby - not Crosby, you might have been thinking of 1/3rd of Crosby, Stills and Nash when hou lluded to that Irishman! in your last post!)
OK, Curtis V. Good to have you come out of the pasture! As to your Normandy Invasion, I have to admit he's got Slewster up the yin yang, being so heavily inbred to the rascal, but you may find if youi go looking for the influential mare that you have some Rasmussen Factor going for you there. Will hold judgemeht 'til I see how he fare in his sophomore debut against my Oxbow. As to speedy Itsmylulyday, you've got some stamina creeping from the sire's iine, but I'm not that enthused on the dams side of the equatin. I noted he didn't fare well in the Experimental Weghts Handicapping factor, receiving a 112 (top 10 range is 126 to 116), and has a DI of 3.00 and CD of 0.79. But he has recency at least, a lot of spectucular recency in his favor, and is getting his conditioning still on the deep Caldar track, so...! The pony you should be hoping on is Baffert's Shakin It Up, by Midnight Lute, from Baffert's near triple crown winner Real Quiet, past generations on the sire blood line being fork the preferred holy trinity of long winded Quiet American-Fappiano-Mr. "P", with your Slewster influwence coming under, by Dam sire VINDICATION! No points? No routes to his credit? Never fear! This guy has a Dosage Index of 1.67 and a CD of 0.38. Some nifty Dosage Index and Center of Distribution figs applied go to: Dynamic Sky: DI of 2.50 (pretty well on the center of the curve) and CD of 0.64. Oxbow: DI of 2.50 (see the near the center of the curve desirable factor) and CD of 0.86. A couple of recent stakes winners flying under the radar are: Dice Flavor (El Camino Reale): DI of 2.33 and CD of 0.85 and here is a nice surprise; Dynamic Stike, by Smart Strike out of the Canadian-Euro stamina bringing it to the party dam sired by Deputy Minister (On) coming out of stakes effort at Turfway in the Prevue and Laurel in the Miracle Wood: DI of 2.33 and CD of 0.68. Very Nice! OK Slewster: As to your comments on Dynamic Sky, well, I'm secure in the pedigree....I've got the both of the Classic influences of Chef d' Race Seatle Slew and Mr. Prospespector prominant, ringing their Brilliance Chef d' Race factors to bear also, and am loaded up with such stalwart influences as Deputy Minister (ON), thru Distored Humor and Affirmed, and Secretariat thru the distaff side of the equation where he has been most successful at passing his genes along, and Storm Bird! Nice picture that, hmmm? Plodder: well, I'm content that wihile he is training on Palm Meadows dirt track, he is racing on the deep condititioning surface of Tampa Bay Downs, instead of that GP or SA concrete strip they call dirt: so he may look slow, but this guys All Stakes 6 races in his 2 yr old and 3 yr old career to date sure has put the foundation in him, has it not? "I noticed that a lot of respectable players had Great Escape, as I did, in the HG!"..Alex A lot of unrespectable players also, Alex? LOL! Looking At Lucky: Nice to hear you chiming in at some length in your last post! My suggestion to Laura is to lose the Joan of Arc, and get in touch with her inner Amazon Warrior, and come back firing! We would miss her contributions here, which are really better thought out than what some are offering up. VQ: Keep em coming sweetie! Lightens up my day when I see your efforts here! LOL! Ketih L.