02/13/2013 3:29PM

Point of Entry and Animal Kingdom Throw it Down!!!

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The ANIMAL KINGDOM - POINT OF ENTRY showdown began a bit early last Saturday when the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner's new jockey, Joel Rosario, made a premature midrace bid. 

One could understand why Rosario made the move.  On paper, there was no early pace in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap and Todd Pletcher's SALTO had just walked the dog through fractions of 25.07 and 50.52.  Rosario, already behind John Velazquez and Point of Entry, didn't want to give up too much ground when the real running began turning for home.

Thus, the real running began late on the backstretch.  Animal Kingdom, racing down on the rail, and the three-wide Point of Entry engaged in a thrilling match race for the final five furlongs.  Both horses shaded 57 seconds for the final five-eighths with Point of Entry outstaying Animal Kingdom in the final sixteenth.  It was a huge performance for both top-class runners, but the race left onlookers asking only one question:

Did Rosario cost Animal Kingdom the race?

We'll never know for sure, but the early move turned the race into more of a staying contest, a contest that may have favored the long-winded Point of Entry.  If Rosario had waited until the quarter pole, he may have better utilized Animal Kingdom's burst of speed and attacked Point of Entry as the stayer was still revving his engine. 

Instead, Point of Entry received more time to get into the heat of battle.  That may have decided the race, but one can't deny that both horses ran exceptionally well.  Third-finisher UNBRIDLED COMMAND had his five-race win streak snapped, but he lost nothing in defeat as he completed his final three-eighths in 33.50 seconds.

*The improving GRAYDAR took advantage of an awkward beginning by speedster ULTIMATE EAGLE (grabbed quarter) and made the front over a track and distance (Gulfstream, nine furlongs) that plays nice to on-the-pace runners.  Still, we have to give the Todd Pletcher-trained colt credit as the Grade 1 Donn Handicap was only his fourth lifetime start and his first around two turns.  He now has three triple-digit Beyers in his career and has thrust himself among the leaders of the handicap division on the East Coast.

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You can find the latest "Under the Radar" column here:

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-under-radar-cerro

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Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures (2/4/13 - 2/10/13):

1. GRAYDAR - 109 - Donn Handicap (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - Gulfstream
2. POINT OF ENTRY - 107 - Gulfstream Park Handicap (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
3. FORT LOUDON - 100 - Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship (G3) - 7 Furlongs - Gulfstream
4. DISCREET DANCER - 98 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - Gulfstream
5. GOLDEN MYSTERY - 96 - Hurricane Bertie Stakes (G3) - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Gulfstream
5. SLIM SHADEY (GB) - 96 - San Marcos Stakes (G2) - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - Santa Anita
7. COLIZEO - 95 - OC 50k/N2X - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
7. CONGENIAL - 95 - Wcl 26000(30-25)N2L - 1 Mile - Oaklawn
7. FLASHY GRAY - 95 - OC 75k/N1X -N - 7 Furlongs - Gulfstream
10. HERBAL PROSPECTOR - 94 - Clm 15000(15-12.5)N2L - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
10. PIANIST - 94 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - Gulfstream
10. SALUTOS AMIGOS - 94 - Md Sp Wt 57k - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
13. BET SEATTLE - 91 - OC 32k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - Oaklawn
13. B SHANNY - 91 - OC 25k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
13. GENTLEMEN'S BET - 91 - OC 16k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - Oaklawn
13. GHOST IS CLEAR - 91 - OC30k/SAL15k - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
17. CHANNEL LADY - 90 - Suwannee River Stakes (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
17. JAN'S PERFECT STAR - 90 - Md Sp Wt 53k - 6 Furlongs - Oaklawn
17. MANITO - 90 - Clm 16000(18-16) - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Laurel
17. OBVIOUSLY TUESDAY - 90 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
17. PARABELLUM - 90 - Alw 41000N1X - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
22. DARK COVE - 89 - Clm 40000 - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
22. MOTOWN MEN - 89 - OC 25k/N$Y -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - Santa Anita
22. PERFECT TITLE - 89 - Md Sp Wt 39k - 1 1/16 Miles - Fair Grounds
22. PURIM'S DANCER - 89 - Wishing Well Stakes - About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
22. SUMMER HIT - 89 - Alw 70734N1X - About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
22. UNSTOPPABLE U - 89 - OC 32k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - Oaklawn

GRAYDAR's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

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Hey Dan,
Do you think Honorable Dillion can stretch out to a longer distance? Can you post the PPs for his sire Tapit?
jimchair

I think HONORABLE DILLON will be more of a sprinter/miler than a true distance horse.  He's a half-brother to Liquidity Trap, a stakes-placed miler on grass.  Their dam won going seven furlongs on dirt in Argentina and was stakes-placed at a mile.  He is still very awkward with his lead changes and that may hurt him when he faces better horses at longer distances.

TAPIT's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog entry.

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Dan
Does each race horse that runs in the USA have some type of computer chip in their saddle that is used to electronically compute their run times?
Okiesharp

No.  The leader's times are clocked at the fractional markers.  We use lengths behind, which are approximated by the chart-caller, for the other runners.  It's obviously not a perfect system.

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Mike A, Steve T, Dan, or anyone else
I handicapped the Donn as well and spent the last couple of days scratching my head. Not that Graydar won, but that the oddsmaker and the public thought this was something like a 5-1 proposition.
Was it just Petcher?
Thanks
Ned Daly

The connections had a good deal to do with how Graydar was bet, but he also was a horse that showed two triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures from three races and the public loves to bet high numbers.  Also, he had an excellent inside post for the nine-furlong distance at Gulfstream Park.  If you hated Graydar, then 5-1 was an extreme underlay.  If you thought he had some upside potential and could improve off his performances against weaker competition, well, 5-1 may have been an underlay as well.

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Can you post Point of Entry, John Henry and Manila for comparison?
AZ Wildcat

Those past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

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Dan, Many years ago I cashed a large wager on accomplished turfer Double Booked, would love to see his PP,s if possible, also would be very interested in seeing the workouts preceding Zenyattas debut. Thank you in advance if this is possible....
James Ronan

Double Booked's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post. 

Here are Zenyatta's published worktab leading up to her career debut on 11/22/07:

HOL - 11/17/07 - 5F - All Weather Track - 01:02.40 -  Breezing Gate - 43/51
HOL - 11/09/07 - 6F - All Weather Track  - 01:14.80 - Breezing Gate - 15/18
HOL - 10/29/07 - 6F - All Weather Track  - 01:15.00 - Handily - 17/24
HOL - 10/21/07 - 5F - All Weather Track  - 01:02.40 - Handily - 37/52
HOL - 10/10/07 - 5F - All Weather Track  - 01:01.00 - Handily  - 15/34
HOL - 10/01/07 - 5F - All Weather Track  - 01:00.80 - Handily - 24/54
HOL - 09/20/07 - 4F - All Weather Track  - :49.80 - Handily - 17/23
DMR - 08/21/07 - 4F - All Weather Track  - :48.80 - Handily - 10/31
DMR - 08/07/07 - 5F - All Weather Track - 01:02.20 - Handily -  19/30
DMR - 07/30/07 - 5F - All Weather Track - 01:04.20 - Handily -  62/67
DMR - 07/22/07 - 4F - All Weather Track  - :52.00 - Handily -  73/80
HOL - 07/13/07 - 4F - All Weather Track -  :50.40 - Handily -  40/48
HOL - 01/29/07 - 5F - All Weather Track - 01:02.40 - Handily -  50/60
HOL - 01/22/07 - 5F - All Weather Track -  01:01.60 - Handily -  38/51
HOL - 01/08/07 - 5F - All Weather Track -  01:00.20 - Breezing -  5/38
HOL - 12/28/06 - 5F - All Weather Track -  01:02.00 - Handily -  56/83
HOL - 12/16/06 - 5F - All Weather Track -  01:02.60 - Handily -  31/48
HOL - 12/09/06 - 5F - All Weather Track - 01:01.40 - Handily -  29/68
HOL - 12/01/06 - 4F - All Weather Track -  :47.40 - Handily -  11/37
HOL - 11/24/06 - 3F - All Weather Track -  :36.80 - Handily -  8/19
HOL - 11/17/06 - 3F - All Weather Track -  :37.20 - Handily -  5/17
HOL - 06/10/06 - 3F - Dirt - :37.00 - Handily  - 13/33

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Somebody commented, "that Storm Cat blood has never crossed the finish line 1st in the Kentucky Derby.."......N­ot talking about lower placings, just 1st.
Someone else said, Tabasco Cat won the Preakness & Belmont, & Shack won the Preakness. Other than that? Is this true ? If it is, it's just as important to be able to toss horses, as it up's our chances. This comment took me aback.
Save me a lot of time. Can anybody let me know if this true ? I'm not even sure what he means by Storm Cat blood. Any Storm Cat at all in the pedigree, or just Storm Cat's immediate progeny. ThanX in advance.
Curt V.

It's amazing, but Storm Cat doesn't appear in the pedigrees of past Derby winners.  His sire, Storm Bird, is represented, but Storm Cat's progeny have failed to make their mark on the first Saturday in May.  Storm Cat's grandson, Menifee, finished second in the 1999 Derby.  His son, Cat Thief, ran third that same year.  Grandson Lion Heart placed second in 2004 while Storm Cat's son, Bluegrass Cat, finished second in 2006.  Great-grandson Denis of Cork finished third in 2008. 

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Hey Dan,
Can you post the lifetime past performances for Havre de Grace?
P. Starr

You can find them at the bottom of this blog post.

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Although the 49ers didn't win the Super Bowl, the Bay Area can take some solace that Mike Beer and I will be at Golden Gate on Saturday for a discussion of the El Camino Real Derby card at 11am in the Paddock Pub.  We'd love to meet you.

If you'd like, you can follow me on Twitter at DRF_DanIllman.

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Congrats to Scott for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise. 

PENN NATIONAL RICK'S WEEKLY SCORESHEET IS AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.

Scott selected Friday's seventh race at Gulfstream for this week's contest.

PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
 
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
 
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.

PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKER AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY AND/OR ANALYSIS.
 
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
 
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
 
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

***FROM SCOREKEEPER PENN NATIONAL RICK***

I read some entries on here and there are some people who put their heart out on their picks(such as DavidM9999) and give you great analysis on who they like and why and then there are others who elect not to give any reasoning behind their entries. The rule I will implement EFFECTIVE 3/1/13 will be... any entry without ANY analysis will be ignored. We are not asking you to put out a novel, but again a sentence or two. Also, I will put communication out when Dan puts out new blogs.
My intent is not to be jerk on this, but what's fair is fair. I'm not taking away from this week or past winners regarding all of this, but we do need to make the change.
If you have any questions/conce­rns...please send an email to FORMBLOG@DRF.CO­M and it will get forwarded to me.
Thank You!
Rick

REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.

ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATE THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL).

Best of luck to all.

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Will be heading to Golden Gate on Friday for Saturday's handicapping discussion. 

The weekend handicapping videos should begin appearing on the homepage around Thursday evening. 

AttachmentSize
Graydar.pdf654.64 KB
Tapit.pdf573.67 KB
Point of Entry.pdf61.44 KB
John Henry.pdf104.82 KB
Manila.pdf61.42 KB
DoubleBooked.pdf62.69 KB
Havre de Grace.pdf53.88 KB
Copy of Formblog Contest Gulfstream 2-8-13.xls45.5 KB
HGGP021513.pdf180.77 KB