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Pleasant Storm, etc.
We talked last week about Northern California's Sourdough Sam as a potential Kentucky Derby prospect. Let's try to find another diamond in the rough courtesy of Remington Park.
Pleasant Storm made his career debut at Remington in a six-furlong maiden special weight on October 17 and was sent away the 8-1 third betting choice in a field that featured heavily-favored Ninilchik (30 cents to the dollar). Ridden by Bryan McNeil for trainer Joe Petalino, Pleasant Storm stalked the pace from midpack while saving ground and advanced along the rail entering the turn. Entering the stretch, McNeil eased Pleasant Storm to the outside and the colt wore down the leaders despite racing on his wrong lead for most of the drive. The Beyer Speed Figure came back a light 64 but two of the horses Pleasant Storm defeated returned to graduate.
Pleasant Storm made his first start against winners in the Oklahoma Classics Juvenile Stakes at six furlongs on November 22. He rated patiently in midpack while the leaders duked it out through fractions of 22.17 and 45.84. McNeil unleashed Pleasant Storm with a five wide sweep on the turn and the colt made the lead willingly in upper stretch. He kept his advantage despite showing a bit of greenness - he drifted in once he made the front - but his final lead change seemed smoother and he was going away at the end.
By the versatile Pleasant Tap, third in the Kentucky Derby in 1990 and a graded stakes winner between seven furlongs and 1 1/4 miles, Pleasant Storm looks like he'll appreciate longer distances.
The dam, a daughter of Stormin Fever, only raced twice and only in sprints but she won her maiden going six furlongs at Monmouth.
The third dam, an unraced daughter of Riverman named Burning River, is a full sister to Dowsing, the winner of the Group 1 Vernons Sprint Cup in England. Burning River is also a half-sister to Fire the Groom, the Beverly D. heroine that produced Group 1 winner, and successful sire, Stravinsky.
Prospector's Fire (by Mr. Prospector) is Pleasant Storm's fourth dam, and she is a half-sister to Florida Derby winner Royal and Regal as well as Jamaica Handicap winner Regal and Royal. Her dam, Native Street (by Native Dancer), won the 1966 Kentucky Oaks.
This is not your usual Oklahoma-bred pedigree by any stretch of the imagination.
A truly thoughtful analysis would mention the negatives. Pleasant Storm has yet to run a truly fast race. His Oklahoma Classic win was slower than the respective race for juvenile fillies that afternoon at Remington Park, and the competition was pretty weak. He'll obviously have to step up his game if he is to prove a legitimate graded stakes horse next year.
Here's what Mary Rampellini wrote about Pleasant Storm in her article posted on drf.com on November 28:
Pleasant Storm remained undefeated in two starts when he closed from 10th to win the $60,000 Oklahoma Classics Juvenile on Nov. 22. He covered six furlongs in 1:10.80, one start after winning a maiden special weight at the same trip Oct. 17. Both races were at a distance less than optimum for Pleasant Storm.
"He's definitely going to be all two turns," said Joe Petalino, who trains Pleasant Storm. "I'm looking to stretch him out."
Petalino said Pleasant Storm's first distance test could come at Oaklawn. The track's initial route stakes for 3-year-olds is on Jan. 18, with the running of the $100,000 Smarty Jones at a mile. From there, the stakes build to the Arkansas Derby.
Pleasant Storm races for his breeder, Vickie Fixley. He is a son of the Pleasant Colony stallion Pleasant Tap.
"He's so big," Petalino said of Pleasant Storm. "He's almost 18 hands tall. He's a big 2-year-old. He towers me on level ground. I've got to look up at his withers. And he's got such a big stride to him."
Oh, none more thing. I don't know the mechanics of how horses get on and off the Disabled List, but I noticed Compari is listed there. Compari starts Wednesday in the 7th race feature at HOL
Horses are removed from the disabled list once they race back. You can view the results of horses that once were on the list on the "deleted" portion of the spreadsheet. The spreadsheet has several different categories with "Disabled horses," "Deleted" runners from the past two racing seasons, "Retired" runners, "Deceased" horses, and the "Where are they now" section for horses that seemed to drop off the face of the Earth.
Could you post pp's for Exceller, Miesque, and Davona Dale? Also, how do you get the pps? And what are the oldest ones on record? Sorry for all the questions.
Here's what I have for the horses you requested:
Download Davona Dale
I am able to access the past performances through the DRF database. I can grab lifetime past performances for horses that raced after the early 1970's as well as older past performances for special cases (champions, etc.).
Please let us know if you hear anything about Sam P. Who knows what could happen to him now.
From Marty McGee's article posted on drf.com on December 16:
Sam P. was pulled up by jockey Calvin Borel shortly after finishing seventh in the Prairie Bayou Stakes on Saturday at Turfway Park and was vanned off. The 5-year-old horse, however, suffered no injuries whatsoever, according to Buff Bradley, the trainer of Sam P.
"He's back training like a million dollars," Bradley said early Wednesday. "Calvin was just being cautious."
Borel did something virtually identical after a Polytrack race at the Keeneland fall meet with Warrior's Reward, dismounting shortly after the finish before the horse was vanned off. Nothing was found amiss with Warrior's Reward, either.
"I think what happens is sometimes the Polytrack balls up and their action gets a little funny," said Bradley.
Bradley, meanwhile, is headed soon to Gulfstream Park, where he will have 20 horses, including Sam P.
Dan, you're a pedigrie guru. Have you ever though of breeding horses? What are some horses you'd like to see bred to one another?
Also, could you post the top 10-20 Beyer speed figures of all time?
Unfortunately, I don't have the money nor the patience to be a breeder. Plus, I think I'd get too emotionally attached to my homebreds and wouldn't want to put them through the auction ring. I guess I'd have to follow the "breed the best to the best and hope for the best" maxim.
Here are the top Beyers since they were published in 1992:
128 - Ghostzapper
126 - Formal Gold
126 - Gentleman
126 - Will's Way
125 - Bertrando
125 - Formal Gold
125 - Skip Away
124 - Artax
124 - Formal Gold
124 - Ghostzapper
124 - Midnight Lute
123 - Aptitude
123 - Artax
123 - Artax
123 - Candy Ride
123 - Commentator
123 - Elusive Quality
123 - Kona Gold
123 - Midway Road
123 - Prospect Bay
123 - Saint Liam
I have yet another favor...
I'm handicapping FG's Saturday's card (in preparation for the NHCQualifier) and I came across Pulpit's Secret in FG2. This 2yo 2ndTS is out of Acorn winner Forest Secrets, the dam of Forest Command. What ever happened to him? Forest Command last raced at GP in Jan09. You have him on the 'Deleted' DL from his barn injury back in Jun08, but nothing new from '09.
Forest Command worked a couple of times during the Spring at Keeneland before going back on the shelf. I haven't heard of any specific injury and I haven't heard of a retirement so I assume that he's had some problems and is getting some down time.
Here are the latest Kentucky Derby future odds from Lucky's:
HG163- $100 win bet on #6
I like M. Cruz staying on this one and look for current form to stay hot as the main reason for this pick.
soo sorry i took so long for HG164 but i have selected Race 12 Fairgrounds- Louisiana Champions Day Sprint Stakes looks wide open hope everyone will enjoy this one. Sorry about it being a Sat. race. Thanks Dan and everyone for your patience!
Frankie M @ Toyota
congrats to Frankie M @ Toyota in Texas for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise. Here are the past performances for Saturday's race:
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualfied. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's rememember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting on them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Best of luck
PS - Bill Mott has some of Juddmote's horses from Bobby Frankel’s barn at Payson Park. I don't know which ones are there currently but I'll head out maybe tomorrow morning. If anyone has a favorite horse from Bobby Frankel’s barn, I’ll look for it and take some photos. Yes SR Vegas, I’ll be sure to take photos of all the PGHs and send them to you! Laura
HG 164 Statebreds on Parade Part 2! A quick scan of the form shows a lot of runners who take turns beating on another; kind of like old friends drawing straws for who pays for a monthly dinners. Let's take a new face. I'll use a 3 y/o with upside, Hear No Angel. I get the solid Asmussen/S. Brigdmohan team, a closer who may get a good pace to chase, and turf to dirt. The concern is the nearly year-long layoff, yes. But that freshness may be a hidden strength against a group that's been racing all year. HG Wager: (Pippen0707 sunk my battleship.) $10 Ex Wheel, 2-all
Blackstone, At this time of the year, the majority of the maiden two year olds already have a race or two under their girths, but I’ll give it a try. Obviously, it better be soon since there are only 12 days left in the year. (My angle - handicapping maiden two year olds by pedigree, of course). As for the Iron Maidens Syndicate of MKB horses, here’s how it works - add your horse to the pool whenever you wish. It could be when you receive it tomorrow or later when the horse makes its first start of the year. I’d like to get about five or six MKB horse owners to participate. We all share the horses, so everyone has a greater chance of winning, and if one horse falls off the derby trail, the owner still has other horses in the syndicate to cheer on. I’ll do a pedigree analysis on the horses in the syndicate, post updates (works, races, etc.) and if the horses are stabled at Payson Park, Palm Meadows or Gulfstream, I can possibly get photos and share “insider information.” Tinky, Do I really have to go back to your original first post to show an example of your “blatant ridicule?” We went through this last year if I recall and I showed several examples. Yes, I have learned to look past the tone of your messages to the points you’ve made and your points come across much better without ridicule. However, the last strict teacher I had that taught like you did was fired by the school board. Merry Christmas. :-) BobC, “Tinky, Could that "Caricature" look like a Professor with little horns and a spiked tail??? Sorry I couldn't resist!!!” More like horns and a spiked tongue. Sorry, couldn’t resist. Calvin, Thanks for the tip on Hotep. Here’s a link I think you’ll enjoy. Keeneland Library has preserved back issues of the DRF on digital all the way to the 1800’s and made them available online. This will be incredibly helpful for research and interesting reading as well. For instance, works posted in 1915 “ This morning’s workouts over a slow track at Churchill were: Three-quarters in 1:22, five-eights in 1:08, 1 mile in 1:44 1/5” etc.. Here’s the link: http://kdl.kyvl.org/drf/ One can read about Man-O-War’s loss to Upset, Regret’s Derby win and more.
Blackstone ...Let's add one more race to the 'Handicapping Angle' list for this weekend. Sunday at Hollywood Park, Race #9 , The Hollywood Starlet. I'll take #7 BEAUTICIAN, (have her on my watch list) The angle, a PGH. SR Vegas _____________________________ GOOD LUCK TO ALL WHO ARE ENTERED IN THE NHC QUALIFIER THIS WEEKEND!!
Rick, Lime Rickey's last race, according to Equibase, was an AOC on Sept. 19 at Belmont and does not have any published workouts.
ROTD Anybody want a long shot today? SEATTLE RULER CHAAZZ
Mike A., Here's the website: http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com/ Early Derby chat and Holiday gathering for Dan Illman's Formblogers. Date: December 20, 2009 Time: 4:00 PM EST I hope you can make it Mike A.
FG 2nd Race The 2nd at FG will be an interesting race to watch, and maybe bet. I'll be at the satellite when it goes, so maybe. The 7-Pulpit's Secret wasn't much of a secret first out-bet down to 5 to 2 in a 12 horse field. Will be the chalk off the big fig-but a couple of negatives-to me-surface: no workouts since raced (a negative angle to me), and the drifting out at the end of his race bothers me too. All of Borel's relevant stats are strong, though. I will toss him until proven otherwise. The Mott horse-#6 River Oaks-cost $475,000-should improve quite a lot, and at a 10 to 1 M/L, is worth thinking about. At the moment, though, I'm leaning toward #3-Island Soul-strong connections, a good first out given the trouble line, and looks like it will do fine on the stretchout. At 5 to 1 I'll play it, at 7 to 2 or less I'll pass, anything in between and I'll be scratching my head. In any event, I'll enjoy the race.
Morning ya'll. Here are my brief thoughts and entry for todays HG contest: Liked the 12 last night and nothing has changed. For some reason he wore fronts a few races back and outside of those two 'wrapped' efforts HE IS MONEY. Pace may be a problem but hoping BooBoo can be patient outside and move at the right time. After that its just rote FG handicapping...Calhoun, Assman, Amoss and Troy Young. $5 TRI: 9-10 w 12 w 2-3-6-9-10-11 ($50) $2 TRI: 12 w 9-10 w 1-2-3-4-6-9-10-11 ($28) $6 EX: 2 w 9-10-12 ($18) $2 SUPER: 10 w 2 w 9-10 w 9-10 ($4) That should equal $100...good luck to all and Merry Christmas.
Mike A, Probably a good idea to wait until Monday. Let the weather settle down a little bit. That way you can come to the draw on Sunday. You are number four on the list, so you will be one of the first to know who your horse is. :) Annie