11/12/2010 1:31PM

Playing the Four-Day Carryover at Aqueduct


Post time is 1:52 pm for the first leg of an Aqueduct Pick-6 that begins with a four-day, $415,271 carryover. Even after late scratches, it's a troublesome sequence with a lot of bulky fields: it's 12 x 10 x 12 x 8 x 8 x 10, a mere $1.84 million to buy it: 

The sequence is carelessly arranged: There was no reason to make the maiden-claimer with four firsters the 5th race instead of carding it to start the sequence as the 4th -- it makes no difference whether such a race is the third or fourth leg of the early pick-4 on races 2-5, and a lot of difference whether it's the first or second leg of the pick-6 on races 4-9.

Sure would be nice to see the board and get some clue which firsters are being bet. That is especially so with this event, where the firsters don't have to be killers to win and are the most plausible alternatives to a dropdown favorite of uncertain ability.

I'll still take a shot, especially since I feel like I'm getting a little bit of a free ride: Usually when there's more than a two-day carryover in New York, I've already chased it, but this will be my first wager since last Saturday. Still have some work to do, but will post my play shortly before the 4th.


1:45 pm: And away we go:

Did an all-A's-aB'sscaveeman th accounts for $2880, and another $720 in five-A/one-C backups. Took my best guess in the second leg off the limited 4-5 double betting. Obviously I'm short on big convictons today, but the size of the likely pool is just too tempting.

You probably weren't going to use Decorated Court (#3) in the 9th, but she was just scratched with 5 MTP to the 4th.


2:15 pm: Better to get Pagan Ruler as a B at 16-1 than the next three finishers -- Slamm'n Lou as an X at 59-1, Magnificent Tiger as a C at 7-2 or Moon Raven as an X at 32-1 -- but an early version of the play had him a notch higher.

 So it's caveman day the rest of the way with a 4x4x3x2x3. 

With 4 MTP for leg two, the Chad Brown firster is 7-2, with the Mike Maker and Gary Contessa firsters 12-1 and 9-1 respectively.


3:00 pm: So I guessed right on the Chad Brown firster but I shouldn't have had to. Jimmy's Sweetheart was bet late to 3-1 while the others kept drifting. Jimmy's Sweetheart and favored second-timer Great Press did their best to run each other into the ground duelling early, then Jimm's Sweetheart took over in the stretch and, fortunately for me, no one else did much running and the tiring winner got home safely.

Frivolous Buck just got up to win the 6th from Tutti Va Bene and Princess Maura, completing a $1380 pick-3 for the first half of the pick-6. Long way to go.


3:25 pm: Second choice Top It came flying late to win the 7th on a day when either of a couple of second-place finishers could have created a quintuple carryover: Slamm'n Lou at 59-1 in the 4th, and Won Great Classic, who just ran second at 44-1 to Top It.  


3:40 pm: This is may annual plug for Champions, the DRF Press book that collects the lifetime past performances of over 500 top American thoroughbreds. It's on sale for a week at half-price in our annual pre-holiday sale and I renew my offer: If you buy it and don't think you got your money's worth, I will personally refund your money. No one's taken me up on it yet. You can click here for more info on the book.


4:00 pm: Rats. Ran 4th and 7th with nary an anxious moment. Denomination was flat in her first start since May and Forest Trail seems to have lost any interest in racing.

Congrats to those still alive. Here's what you're playing for:

1, 8: $135,719

10: $217,151

11,14: $271,439

4,7,9,12: Quintuple carryover


4:25 pm: Dutrow dropdown ($25k to $7500) Full N Sassy was a runaway winner of the finale over another boxcar runner-up -- uncovered 42-1 Sky Fever. Full N Sassy completed a $135,719 pick-6; the so-called consolation payout was $614.

davidmiller More than 1 year ago
I really enjoyed this blog, Very good information given in this blog. Thanks Steven.
Myron More than 1 year ago
LOL Steve, I'm tempted to take your photograph of numbers on a scratch pad and use it as my 'avatar' at various internet sites. You've really gone above and beyond the call of duty in sharing that with us!
Nick Briglia More than 1 year ago
Hey Steve, A friend of mine asked me a question about the 5th at Hawthorne yesterday but I wasn't sure of the answer. It was a dead heat for the win between the fav(1.60-1) and a longshot.(15-1) The longshot returned 12.00 which seemed a bit low to my friend since it is well below half his full payout. What is the math behind the less than half payout of the 15-1 shot? Thanks, Nick B [Our first reaction when a 15-1 shot and an 8-5 shot finish in a dead-heat is that they should pay 7.5-to-1 and 4-to-5, but the math doesn't work that way. Think of it this way -- a 4-1 shot isn't really "twice the price" of a 2-1 shot -- with 16 percent takeout, a 4-1 shot has 16.8 percent of the net pool, and a 2-1 shot has 28 percent of that pool because you're paying back the base-bet too. So it's 5x vs. 3x, not 4 vs. 2. I can't actually make the math come out right on this one without odds and pools to the penny -- there's a big difference whether the 8-5 shot was more like $5.20 or $5.39 before breakage --but if you use that principle and factor in net-pool pricing and breakage, you can see how it happens. -SC]
Ryan More than 1 year ago
Steve, your thoughts if you can get the video on the DQ in the 9th today at Churchill Downs (return of Kensei and Guam Typhoon among others). While I remained alive in the P4 with the 2nd place horse who was elevated to the top spot, I watched the head on 4 times and still don't see there the winner interfered, one iota. Thanks.
Larry in Miami More than 1 year ago
Hey Steve --- Thanks for all that you do. Can you please explain why the $5M Breeders' Cup Classic was only worth $4,545,000? [In all Breeders' Cup races, 9.1 percent of the purse goes to nominator and foal awards to the first three finishers. Since these awards do not (necessarily) go to the horse's owner, it's not considered earnings. -SC]
Dave or Divot80 More than 1 year ago
Bobby Barbara has killed a few of my pik 3's and 4's over the years but NEVER on a pik 6 with a carryover. Sorry, Steve, - thought you were in the park there for a while. Divot80
guy More than 1 year ago
Do you think that if you had access to Betfair, you would change the way you structure your tickets? For example, if there is a horse in the last leg, who is likely to go off at reasonably short odds, you could just single that horse (and make your P6 tickets a lot cheaper). If you're still alive by that time, you could then lay it to serious stakes on Betfair and guarantee yourself a profit. [You're assuming there's a singleable short-priced favorite in the last leg of the pick-6 every day, which isn't the case. There are frequently hedge opportunities when you get that far, and it would be easier to hedge through Betfair than the parimutuel system, but I doubt there's any long-term profit in laying every last-race favorite. -SC]
Guy More than 1 year ago
I'm not suggesting that it maximizes ROI, but there is a trade-off between having (cheaper tickets + making some money on the lay) and (winning less money because of the cost of the lay + the opportunity cost of not using overlays at bigger prices in the last), and I have wondered about it for a while, trying to make that trade-off work to my advantage. Personally I can't afford to invest $1000 in every pick 6 but I do have access to Betfair, so it's something that I do sometimes, mainly when I expect that a horse which I like a lot in the last will go off at 5/2 or lower. One big benefit is that even when you lose the P6, you can still guarantee yourself a profit which makes it a lot more pleasant to lose the P6 in the last! (There are a lot of hedging possibilities between the pools and the exchanges in general btw)
MJP More than 1 year ago
Wow, I guess despite the DRF article that claimed to discern a class advantage and suggested that it represented a class drop, the Hollywood Turf Cup is every bit as good as the Belmont Turf Classic. Treat Gently was a solidly beaten and never competitive forth, and her performance was, if anything, worse than her run against Winchester and Paddy 'O Prado in the Turf Classic. There is really no evidence that the East Coast turf mediocrities are any better than the West Coast turf mediocrities.
Walt P. More than 1 year ago
I do need to remind the person who complained in the last blog about how horse racing took a backseat to the finish of Illionois-Michigan last Saturday two things: 1. ESPN is always going to stay with an event to its conclusion. This has nothing to do with horse racing. A lot of Michigan and Illinois fans (not to mention the Big 10 conference) would have been angry if ESPN moved the finish of their game to, say, ESPN Classic so the BC telecast could begin on time (the game had already gone to a third overtime). 2. ESPN actually stayed with the BC telecast past its scheduled off-time of 7:00 PM, and viewers who tuned in then looking for Arkansas-South Carolina missed the opening kickoff of that game so ESPN could stay with BC coverage (which I'm sure infuriated some fans of both schools as well as some within the SEC, which usually has the Saturday night slot on ESPN). That has been conveniently forgotten by some. On another front, since you mentioned the pick-six should be a $2 wager, at least in major racing jurisdictions, what about the 10-cent pick nine that I have brought up for the Breeders' Cup and other days. That is a wager that would likely have a slower buildup of a carryover than the pick-six, but it is one at 10 cents that I suspect, especially with a decent carryover would be popular with smaller bettors since you could then do 100-200 combinations for a $10-20 investment. Of course, there would be three additional legs in a pick-nine wager, but for 10 cents that would offset that fact.
Don Reed More than 1 year ago
Steve, look forward to having a very, very nice time on January 17th in Miami. Unfortunately, I doubt that your expansive good fortune will rub off on the Moss clan and their associates, racing or otherwise. Here's to hoping I'm wrong (once again). In case Steve needs a readers’ choir behind him, it is this: He couldn't have made a safer bet than to personally guarantee your money back if you pick up a copy of “Champions.” It’s an excellent book and also a good idea for an upcoming holiday present - especially for those of us who don’t particularly want to repeat what happened last year - “OMG I Forgot!” Last-Second Shopping at 11 p.m. on December 21st - 22nd - 23rd! Just think of it as a “getting out” option!