11/12/2010 12:31PM

Playing the Four-Day Carryover at Aqueduct


Post time is 1:52 pm for the first leg of an Aqueduct Pick-6 that begins with a four-day, $415,271 carryover. Even after late scratches, it's a troublesome sequence with a lot of bulky fields: it's 12 x 10 x 12 x 8 x 8 x 10, a mere $1.84 million to buy it: 

The sequence is carelessly arranged: There was no reason to make the maiden-claimer with four firsters the 5th race instead of carding it to start the sequence as the 4th -- it makes no difference whether such a race is the third or fourth leg of the early pick-4 on races 2-5, and a lot of difference whether it's the first or second leg of the pick-6 on races 4-9.

Sure would be nice to see the board and get some clue which firsters are being bet. That is especially so with this event, where the firsters don't have to be killers to win and are the most plausible alternatives to a dropdown favorite of uncertain ability.

I'll still take a shot, especially since I feel like I'm getting a little bit of a free ride: Usually when there's more than a two-day carryover in New York, I've already chased it, but this will be my first wager since last Saturday. Still have some work to do, but will post my play shortly before the 4th.


1:45 pm: And away we go:

Did an all-A's-aB'sscaveeman th accounts for $2880, and another $720 in five-A/one-C backups. Took my best guess in the second leg off the limited 4-5 double betting. Obviously I'm short on big convictons today, but the size of the likely pool is just too tempting.

You probably weren't going to use Decorated Court (#3) in the 9th, but she was just scratched with 5 MTP to the 4th.


2:15 pm: Better to get Pagan Ruler as a B at 16-1 than the next three finishers -- Slamm'n Lou as an X at 59-1, Magnificent Tiger as a C at 7-2 or Moon Raven as an X at 32-1 -- but an early version of the play had him a notch higher.

 So it's caveman day the rest of the way with a 4x4x3x2x3. 

With 4 MTP for leg two, the Chad Brown firster is 7-2, with the Mike Maker and Gary Contessa firsters 12-1 and 9-1 respectively.


3:00 pm: So I guessed right on the Chad Brown firster but I shouldn't have had to. Jimmy's Sweetheart was bet late to 3-1 while the others kept drifting. Jimmy's Sweetheart and favored second-timer Great Press did their best to run each other into the ground duelling early, then Jimm's Sweetheart took over in the stretch and, fortunately for me, no one else did much running and the tiring winner got home safely.

Frivolous Buck just got up to win the 6th from Tutti Va Bene and Princess Maura, completing a $1380 pick-3 for the first half of the pick-6. Long way to go.


3:25 pm: Second choice Top It came flying late to win the 7th on a day when either of a couple of second-place finishers could have created a quintuple carryover: Slamm'n Lou at 59-1 in the 4th, and Won Great Classic, who just ran second at 44-1 to Top It.  


3:40 pm: This is may annual plug for Champions, the DRF Press book that collects the lifetime past performances of over 500 top American thoroughbreds. It's on sale for a week at half-price in our annual pre-holiday sale and I renew my offer: If you buy it and don't think you got your money's worth, I will personally refund your money. No one's taken me up on it yet. You can click here for more info on the book.


4:00 pm: Rats. Ran 4th and 7th with nary an anxious moment. Denomination was flat in her first start since May and Forest Trail seems to have lost any interest in racing.

Congrats to those still alive. Here's what you're playing for:

1, 8: $135,719

10: $217,151

11,14: $271,439

4,7,9,12: Quintuple carryover


4:25 pm: Dutrow dropdown ($25k to $7500) Full N Sassy was a runaway winner of the finale over another boxcar runner-up -- uncovered 42-1 Sky Fever. Full N Sassy completed a $135,719 pick-6; the so-called consolation payout was $614.