11/17/2011 12:08PM

Playing the $237k Aqueduct Carryover


After 27 scratches, 23 of them in the three off-the-turf races, the three-day $237,446 Aqueduct pick-6 carryover is a 44-horse 8x6x8x7x8x7 proposition:

The main track is labelled muddy after a full day and night of rain, with more showers likely during the afternoon. The sequence is scheduled to begin at 1:50 pm.

First, Rail Trip is currently 1-to-5 to break a five-race losing streak dating back to June of 2010 in the opener, a $60k overnight stakes at a mile and an eighth. The 2009 Hollywood Gold Cup winner has four opponents, including Albany Stakes winner Bigger is Bettor and Ron the Greek, who has lost nine straight since winning the 2010 Lecomte.


12:30 pm: Hope you didn't try to increase your pick-6 bankroll by 5 percent taking Rail Trip to show in the opener. They're off, you lose: Rail Trip dumped Ramon Dominguez coming out of the gate, burning those who bet him to 2-to-5 in the win pool and the bridgejumpers who hammered him to show: Ron the Greek paid $6.70 to win and $6.80 to show, runner-up  Bigger is Bettor paid $8.80 to show and third-place Most Happy Fella paid $29.00 to show. Rail Trip, who completed the race riderless, and Dominguez were apparently uninjured.


1:30 pm: Here we go:


I had more trouble with the races that were carded for the dirt than with the off-the-turfers, other than the 5th where a lot of people will be leaning on Sea Gaze as heavily as I did. The 6th and 8th, however, are wide-open races.


2:30 pm: Well, it beats being dead. The Roundhouse ($22.20) trouncing 1-5 Sea Gaze probably wiped out 90 percent of the live tickets, so I'm alive by a 2x2x2x3 thread the rest of the way. This is why I make multiple tickets.

The Roundhouse obviously likes wet tracks -- a 7: 3-2-1 career record on them -- but he was 1 for his last 25. I think it was as much a case of Sea Gaze not running his race as The ROundhouse improving dramatically. Maybe Sea Gaze, who had never raced at Aqueduct in 51 precious career starts, just doesn't like The Big A.

The Roundhouse, a 6-year-old son of FUsaichi Pegasus and Circle of Life, began his career as a highly promising Repole/Pletcher runner. In 2007, he ran third to Ready's Image and Tale of Ekati in the G2 Sanford and second as the 13-10 favorite to Kodiak Kowboy in the G2 Saratoga Special. 


2:55 pm: Only halfway home, but Unbridled Storm ($12.20) just made things a little more interesting. The winner was the sixth choice on the ML at 8-1 and co-fourth choice in a win pool where Withalittlebit opened a chilly 9-2 and was slammed late to 7-5.

The pick-3 comprising the first half of the pick-6 paid $1,051 for $2.


3:25 pm: Argggh. Shoulda used 7-2 Cosmic King instead of 5-1 Piano Man as my other A along with even-money Won Fast Bullet. Double arggggh.  


4:00 pm: Even with favorite Grand Strategy winning the 8th, all the pick-6 willpays are in six digits. Sextuple argggh.

There will be six winners at $110k with the 11 or 14; five winners at $132k with the 9; and two winners at $330k with the 1,15 or 16. That leaves #6, Persky's Heart, the only uncovered horse, who would provide us with a $660k quadruple carryover.

First person to pint out that if I'd cavemanned all my A's B's and C's I'd be alive to five horses for $100k to $300k is a rotten egg. A $14,400 investment is way out of my comfort zone.


4:25 pm: Persky's Heart actually led through the opening quarter, providing 23.53 seconds of hope for a quad-carry, but Silver Over Gold put him away shortly thereafter and then Saucy Jade looped the field to win going away and make five people very happy to the tune of $132,209. The conso paid $686. I am not consoled.