Playing the $237k Aqueduct Carryover

Steve - would be interested in your thoughts on the 2012 graded stakes announcement, particularly as to the NYRA. I grant that the Hopeful has been underwhelming in recent years but can it really be that the premier race meet in America, which focuses to a significant extent on 2YO racing, does not have a Grade I race for 2YO colts? Leaving aside the BC races, California now has three Grade I races for 2YO colts while New York has one and the rest of the country has one - there is no way to suggest that the strength and depth of 2YO racing in California, or the fields those races draws, justifies that. The committee was right to downgrade a SAR Grade I but it should have been the Sword Dancer - it ceased being a top-class race nearly a decade ago. [See the Dec. 3 blog entry I just posted. -SC]

Steve: Not sure if you have seen this, but Bob Pandolfo over in his Harness Eye column thinks that YOU should be appointed the commissioner of Thoroughbred Racing: http://www.harnesscharts.com/ If it doesn't immediately come up, look for it in "Columns from Harness Eye."

i hope tou are playing and blooging cigar mile day. it looks like a good card.

**** QUESTION FOR STEVE **** Just bought your book "Exotic Betting". I would really like to learn more about formulating the A, B, C theory to my Pick Four wagers. Can you highlight what chapters or pages would help me with this. Not to sound like a lazy ass, but going for my Phd and working two jobs the moment so it would seriously take me a year before I got through the entire book. I will eventually read the entire piece but playing the horses every Sunday is what keeps me sane and I would really like to try this theory out.

Steve, The Roundhouse was Michael Tabor bred and raced to start his career.

Hi Steve, Can feel the pain when you use a winner in the B slot. But in the long run your system is the best I know of to have coverage for a reasonable investment. For the folks with 20/20 hindsight,what if the chalk in leg 2 came home and the final payoff was in the 5K range (if that), and you invested 14K plus? That would be an example of a poor wager. Most of us do not have the capital to invest 10K plus on a single play, again your system is the soundest way to get coverage. What I find most appealing is that you draw a line in the sand and give strongest weight to your prime picks. Good luck for the rest of the year, your an excellent writer and I enjoy following you and your coverage on horse racing in general. Good Luck to All!

Walt P: I'll believe it when I see it. Was that a misprint? There's a 6/5 shot to START the pick-4 on Saturday at Aqu?

Ouch. Tough beat, Steve. One of the big ones that got away. Can't play 'em over, that's for sure, and when they're gone, they're gone, good-bye, sayonara, ciao, the fat lady's song is over and kaputsky. On to tomorrow. It's only a day away.

Watched the head-on of Rail Trip in the opener, and it's miraculous Ramon Dominguez didn't get trampled. He could have been, instead he walks off with nary a scratch (thankfully)! You can thank this carryover on Tatoo Me yesterday. He came flying down the stretch yesterday at 23-1 I believe and is largely responsible for this carryover.

mr.crist breeders cup question can't find the answer anywere. could you please tell me how many pick-six tickets were sold with 5of6 on nov 5 2011. thank you [Haven't seen an official statement on it, but the math -- gross pool of $3.639 million, 19 percent takeout, net pool of $2.947 million, payout of $95,070 -- works out to 31 winning combos. I say "combos" rather than "tickets" because if someone had five winners and went three-deep in the Mile missing Court Vision, he gets the $95k three times on that ticket. -SC]

Don't feel too bad, Steven. (Firstly, I'd like to say that I really enjoy your commentary on just about everything. As I find that I'm just not the guy who can decipher who is going to finish 3rd or 4th in a race, I relish at the fact that I can get paid a heck of a lot more for stringing multiple winners together. I've definitely learned from your approach of putting emphasis on certain combinations and going with multiple tickets {especially on those $.50 Pick 4s} And come Breeders' Cup the last two years, you're the only handicapper I really wanted to hear on the subject. But enough kissing your rear, I'm just a newly turned 22-year-old kid from Nebraska. And I need to tell someone how I almost changed my life today..) I should have hit the Pick 6 today. I couldn't sleep last night. I turned to fiddling around on DRF.com reading articles and looking at entries. As I read some of the articles my mind drifted and I began to feel something. More specifically, a feeling that I was about to do something great passed through my brain. Anyway, an hour or so later I decided to purchase today's race card... Without seeing that they were rained off on Wednesday. A tired mistake. But I looked on, I was going to try to justify the $4.50 by looking for even a $10 score. I had noticed the article about the Carryover and decided to peek at Race 4 first. I assumed the turf races were going to be turned into off-track dirt affairs and with my trusty notebook wrote down, "1-15".. That's where I fell asleep. But that's not why I missed the Pick 6. I woke up ready to handicap. Another wonderful thing about Formulator, don't have to worry about entries. Got to the next race, overwhelming favorite. I can never single those, it's just not in me. Didn't particularly care for anyone else, so I turned to a horse who helped my day over two years ago on Travers day. In the mud. The Roundhouse. I scribbled in my notebook, "3-7".. The next race was probably the hardest in the sequence for me. Or at least, I looked at it the longest. I went to the fillies with distance, "4-5".. Yet another off the turfer in the next. Didn't see too many contenders. Originally I wrote down 7-11-12-15, but I soon found myself scratching out two contenders and left myself with "12-15".. The last of the scheduled dirt races left me on 4-9-10, but I looked back over my ticket and saw that this was going to get too expensive. I dropped it down to "4-9".. And the final leg, I wasn't worried. I picked my three top choices and knew that one of them WOULD win the race, I always like the last race being my biggest spread, just more comforting and more fun. "9-11-14".. Let me play that ticket back for you: 1-15/3-7/4-5/12-15/4-9/9-11-14 One-hundred and ninety-two dollars. I keep $200 in cash on my dresser just for horse racing purposes. I usually drive to the "track" for one race, collect my 100% - 300% interest in less than 2 minutes and drive home. Being far more times than not that I cash. I've never bet a pick 6 before, and I now I don't think I ever will. I can't use the excuse that it was too expensive. I could have played the 15 as a single in the first leg, wanted to rip my ticket up for just about the length of the stretch, but come out on top for less than $100. I say that leg because that was the only single I would have felt comfortable with before the races. I didn't even go to put $12 into the $.50 Pick 4 that returned $499. I watched the replays in horror on nyra.com. Once in a lifetime chance. I blew it. -Tom P. I look forward to reading more of your material, Steven.

Sorry you lost today. I've been reading your book "Exotic Betting" which I purchased online a couple of weeks ago. Been betting the Pick Threes and Pick Fours for several years with good handicapping success but not managing my bets properly, so your book is a revelation. Thanks! I'm still learning how to configure my exotic wagers more efficiently the way you've prescribed, and its definitely better than what I've been doing. Breeders Cup Day I bet the first Pick-4 the way you said but I changed one selection - I made Focus Freeze an "A" along with Jackson Bend, and failed to cash. Should've had it if I'd listened to you and put Amazombie as an "A".

Where can one find the wagering rules for Churchill's Pick-5? They have the rules on their website for all the other multi-race wagers. 4 out of 5 consos are huge today so curious about what percentage is carried over and how much goes towards the consos

Steve, that Caveman comment gave me a laugh on this cold Upstate NY afternoon. Anyone who has been following what your A,B,C spread is all about would realize that the $14,400 one shot bet is on about a 7-1 return. Not a good play. And this is AFTER the races have been posted. Enjoy your cocktail hour. And as I commented earlier this month, players have to accept that on some days, " it's not to be" when the horses hit the wire.

Steve: Arggh too. I did same thing, tossing the 15, while keeping 7-11-12 in race 7, to reduce my tickets. Cost me the 5 outta 6 after getting hit with The Roundhouse. Gotta write to Santa now, for a pick-6 for Christmas. Keep on bloggin...

Yea I couldn't figure why My Piano was dead on the board . Now I know why ........ I blew the nice early Pk4 I knew the Roundhouse had back class ......... Arrrrrrrgggggg this game

Jerry: I suspect you will get more horses at the higher levels coming up from Parx to take shots, particularly in Allowance company, while I also think that will be the case with Maryland and Penn National-based horses who can run in Allowance company. Do agree that most horses will still go to Florida for the winter that otherwise would anyway, though I do think a few might stay.

Steve, good luck and I played 16 dollars and only hit race 6 but love the 3 horse in race 8 as my long shot today.

I get the feeling that even WITH the racino money you are not going to get this huge influx of horses to NY; at least not this winter. Gulf opening 12/3, Phillly nearby, Churchill still going. Once turf ends it looks like same old, same old. IMHO

Well, The Roundhouse was a C for me as well. That was disappointing as I was hoping this would turn into a Pick-4 with some longshots - which I moved into A positions in many cases.

This P6 has the look of a chalky sequence with many winners today. 5 of 6 won't pay much at all.

Hello Steve, Thought I'd peak in and see if you were blogging; knowing a Big Fish 6 was on the hook. Hope you end up the day with fish and chips. In the barn for awhile after a great summer of Spa action. And an enjoyable BCup, but not in a wallet way. I've become a different player after watching your play. Learned something and can't wait to apply it. Want to start my mantra: Mandatory No Lasix, Not on my Dime.