11/17/2011 12:08PM

Playing the $237k Aqueduct Carryover

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After 27 scratches, 23 of them in the three off-the-turf races, the three-day $237,446 Aqueduct pick-6 carryover is a 44-horse 8x6x8x7x8x7 proposition:

The main track is labelled muddy after a full day and night of rain, with more showers likely during the afternoon. The sequence is scheduled to begin at 1:50 pm.

First, Rail Trip is currently 1-to-5 to break a five-race losing streak dating back to June of 2010 in the opener, a $60k overnight stakes at a mile and an eighth. The 2009 Hollywood Gold Cup winner has four opponents, including Albany Stakes winner Bigger is Bettor and Ron the Greek, who has lost nine straight since winning the 2010 Lecomte.

 

12:30 pm: Hope you didn't try to increase your pick-6 bankroll by 5 percent taking Rail Trip to show in the opener. They're off, you lose: Rail Trip dumped Ramon Dominguez coming out of the gate, burning those who bet him to 2-to-5 in the win pool and the bridgejumpers who hammered him to show: Ron the Greek paid $6.70 to win and $6.80 to show, runner-up  Bigger is Bettor paid $8.80 to show and third-place Most Happy Fella paid $29.00 to show. Rail Trip, who completed the race riderless, and Dominguez were apparently uninjured.

 

1:30 pm: Here we go:

 

I had more trouble with the races that were carded for the dirt than with the off-the-turfers, other than the 5th where a lot of people will be leaning on Sea Gaze as heavily as I did. The 6th and 8th, however, are wide-open races.

 

2:30 pm: Well, it beats being dead. The Roundhouse ($22.20) trouncing 1-5 Sea Gaze probably wiped out 90 percent of the live tickets, so I'm alive by a 2x2x2x3 thread the rest of the way. This is why I make multiple tickets.

The Roundhouse obviously likes wet tracks -- a 7: 3-2-1 career record on them -- but he was 1 for his last 25. I think it was as much a case of Sea Gaze not running his race as The ROundhouse improving dramatically. Maybe Sea Gaze, who had never raced at Aqueduct in 51 precious career starts, just doesn't like The Big A.

The Roundhouse, a 6-year-old son of FUsaichi Pegasus and Circle of Life, began his career as a highly promising Repole/Pletcher runner. In 2007, he ran third to Ready's Image and Tale of Ekati in the G2 Sanford and second as the 13-10 favorite to Kodiak Kowboy in the G2 Saratoga Special. 

 

2:55 pm: Only halfway home, but Unbridled Storm ($12.20) just made things a little more interesting. The winner was the sixth choice on the ML at 8-1 and co-fourth choice in a win pool where Withalittlebit opened a chilly 9-2 and was slammed late to 7-5.

The pick-3 comprising the first half of the pick-6 paid $1,051 for $2.

 

3:25 pm: Argggh. Shoulda used 7-2 Cosmic King instead of 5-1 Piano Man as my other A along with even-money Won Fast Bullet. Double arggggh.  

 

4:00 pm: Even with favorite Grand Strategy winning the 8th, all the pick-6 willpays are in six digits. Sextuple argggh.

There will be six winners at $110k with the 11 or 14; five winners at $132k with the 9; and two winners at $330k with the 1,15 or 16. That leaves #6, Persky's Heart, the only uncovered horse, who would provide us with a $660k quadruple carryover.

First person to pint out that if I'd cavemanned all my A's B's and C's I'd be alive to five horses for $100k to $300k is a rotten egg. A $14,400 investment is way out of my comfort zone.

 

4:25 pm: Persky's Heart actually led through the opening quarter, providing 23.53 seconds of hope for a quad-carry, but Silver Over Gold put him away shortly thereafter and then Saucy Jade looped the field to win going away and make five people very happy to the tune of $132,209. The conso paid $686. I am not consoled.

 

Brian More than 1 year ago
Steve - would be interested in your thoughts on the 2012 graded stakes announcement, particularly as to the NYRA. I grant that the Hopeful has been underwhelming in recent years but can it really be that the premier race meet in America, which focuses to a significant extent on 2YO racing, does not have a Grade I race for 2YO colts? Leaving aside the BC races, California now has three Grade I races for 2YO colts while New York has one and the rest of the country has one - there is no way to suggest that the strength and depth of 2YO racing in California, or the fields those races draws, justifies that. The committee was right to downgrade a SAR Grade I but it should have been the Sword Dancer - it ceased being a top-class race nearly a decade ago. [See the Dec. 3 blog entry I just posted. -SC]
Walt P. More than 1 year ago
Steve: Not sure if you have seen this, but Bob Pandolfo over in his Harness Eye column thinks that YOU should be appointed the commissioner of Thoroughbred Racing: http://www.harnesscharts.com/ If it doesn't immediately come up, look for it in "Columns from Harness Eye."
jp More than 1 year ago
i hope tou are playing and blooging cigar mile day. it looks like a good card.
Rob More than 1 year ago
**** QUESTION FOR STEVE **** Just bought your book "Exotic Betting". I would really like to learn more about formulating the A, B, C theory to my Pick Four wagers. Can you highlight what chapters or pages would help me with this. Not to sound like a lazy ass, but going for my Phd and working two jobs the moment so it would seriously take me a year before I got through the entire book. I will eventually read the entire piece but playing the horses every Sunday is what keeps me sane and I would really like to try this theory out.
john m More than 1 year ago
Steve, The Roundhouse was Michael Tabor bred and raced to start his career.
fort marcy More than 1 year ago
Hi Steve, Can feel the pain when you use a winner in the B slot. But in the long run your system is the best I know of to have coverage for a reasonable investment. For the folks with 20/20 hindsight,what if the chalk in leg 2 came home and the final payoff was in the 5K range (if that), and you invested 14K plus? That would be an example of a poor wager. Most of us do not have the capital to invest 10K plus on a single play, again your system is the soundest way to get coverage. What I find most appealing is that you draw a line in the sand and give strongest weight to your prime picks. Good luck for the rest of the year, your an excellent writer and I enjoy following you and your coverage on horse racing in general. Good Luck to All!
jerry More than 1 year ago
Walt P: I'll believe it when I see it. Was that a misprint? There's a 6/5 shot to START the pick-4 on Saturday at Aqu?
anonymous12 More than 1 year ago
Ouch. Tough beat, Steve. One of the big ones that got away. Can't play 'em over, that's for sure, and when they're gone, they're gone, good-bye, sayonara, ciao, the fat lady's song is over and kaputsky. On to tomorrow. It's only a day away.
Walt P. More than 1 year ago
Watched the head-on of Rail Trip in the opener, and it's miraculous Ramon Dominguez didn't get trampled. He could have been, instead he walks off with nary a scratch (thankfully)! You can thank this carryover on Tatoo Me yesterday. He came flying down the stretch yesterday at 23-1 I believe and is largely responsible for this carryover.
troyce More than 1 year ago
mr.crist breeders cup question can't find the answer anywere. could you please tell me how many pick-six tickets were sold with 5of6 on nov 5 2011. thank you [Haven't seen an official statement on it, but the math -- gross pool of $3.639 million, 19 percent takeout, net pool of $2.947 million, payout of $95,070 -- works out to 31 winning combos. I say "combos" rather than "tickets" because if someone had five winners and went three-deep in the Mile missing Court Vision, he gets the $95k three times on that ticket. -SC]