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Perfect storm for Exaggerator
Beaten in all four of his previous battles with Nyquist, the talented Exaggerator benefited from a perfect storm to finally turn the tables on his archrival in last Saturday's Preakness Stakes at Pimlico.
First, the rain.
In four starts over "off" going, Exaggerator now boasts a record of 3-1-0 (Beyers of 101, 103, 92, 86) with wins in the Preakness, Santa Anita Derby and Delta Jackpot. His lone defeat on a wet track occurred in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last fall. In that race, he was beaten a length by Brody's Cause. Exaggerator is a rock-solid horse on any surface, but he sure travels sweetly over a moisture-filled track.
Second, the pace.
As Nyquist battled hard with Uncle Lino through the fastest opening quarter mile in Preakness history (22.38), Exaggerator bided his time while saving ground at the rear of the field. When the pace slowed on the backstretch, Exaggerator crept closer under Kent Desormeaux and the duo were in perfect striking position entering the far turn.
Desormeaux pushed the button on the bend and angled Exaggerator out for a three-wide bid entering the stretch. Despite John Velazquez's best efforts, aboard Stradivari, to keep Desormeaux pinned to the inside, Exaggerator simply was too much horse for Stradivari at that juncture. He blew past the Pletcher-trained colt, took aim on the pacesetters and was soon in front. Exaggerator understandably became leg-weary in the stretch, but he had enough left to fend off a rallying Cherry Wine and a game Nyquist. It was a great ride and trip from behind a fast and contentious pace.
"I had a dream trip today," Desormeaux told track publicity after the Preakness. "I was on the fence and they all stayed wide. These turns, you want to paint the fence."
The early fractions cooked Nyquist's goose. The other pace horses finished seventh (Uncle Lino, vanned off), ninth (Awesome Speed) and tenth (Collected), but Nyquist was still battling it out to the end. Although this was his first blemish from nine starts, he lost nothing in defeat.
Racing fans disappointed that Triple Crown dreams were dashed immediately pointed the finger at Nyquist's rider, Mario Gutierrez. Nyquist's greatest asset is his tactical speed, but Gutierrez seemed intent on sending the Derby winner straight to the front. Uncle Lino wouldn't yield, however, and the two California-based 3-year-olds knocked skulls entering the backstretch. If Gutierrez was a hair more patient passing the stands the first time, allowed the lead to Uncle Lino and was content to track that one from the outside, the results might have been different.
To his credit, Nyquist's trainer, Doug O'Neill, deflected criticism from his rider with some classy post-Preakness thoughts. "I just really wanted to see a good, clean trip and trouble free," O'Neill told track publicity. "I think Mario did a wonderful job with that. He didn’t bring it today and more than anything Exaggerator just ran a monstrous race. We thought we had the best horse and wanted to ride him like the best horse and not try to get too cute and get perfect positioning. Him going fast early was really my idea, thinking ‘he’s the best horse, take it to them.’"
Cherry Wine received a patented Corey Lanerie ride as he saved every inch of ground before picking up the tired horses in the stretch. He came with a good late kick, but had the run of the race from a pace standpoint. Stradivari, making only the fourth start of his career, was outsprinted early and seemed a bit headstrong once angled to the inside and confronted with slop kick-back. He did relax on the backstretch, tried to go with Exaggerator entering the turn and finished evenly on the outside. Considering his relative inexperience, he gave a solid effort. Lani, outrun as usual, needed to be tapped on the shoulder by Yutaka Take to maintain interest as he raced far behind on the backstretch. He was stopped twice in the stretch before rallying belatedly and galloped out nicely after the fact.
Unfortunately, Nyquist emerged from the Preakness stricken with a fever and an elevated white blood cell count that will keep last year's 2-year-old champion out of the Belmont Stakes.
Exaggerator, however, will try and get a leg up on 3-year-old championship honors by taking two-thirds of the Triple Crown. The Preakness winner is a very likeable colt, a blue-collar throwback that shows up with a good race just about every single time out. He'll likely go off a pretty heavy favorite in the Belmont, but might have to deal with a dearth of early pace in New York.
I can't help but deduce that Nyquist could or should have secured placing if it wasn't for Mario's lack of willingness (may not be a correct word) to do so in last 1/16th in general and final 70 yards in particular. It sure looked like he wasn't "all over" Nyquist in the final stages near the wire. What is your assessment about Mario's body language during this time?
I agree that Gutierrez seemed to wrap up on Nyquist when it became apparent that he wasn't winning the race, and that it's possible the colt would have been second if ridden out through the wire. From a gambling standpoint, it's bad luck if you had Nyquist to complete the exacta under Exaggerator, but Gutierrez didn't want to beat up on the colt with the Belmont three weeks away (he wouldn't have known that Nyquist would come out of the race sick and unable to compete in New York).
Dan, when was the last time the Preakness winner ran 2nd in the Derby?
Prior to Exaggerator, the ill-fated Prairie Bayou in 1993 was the most recent Kentucky Derby runner-up to win the Preakness.
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 5/10/16 - 5/16/16:
1. WAKE FOREST (GER) - 101 - Man O'War Stakes (G1) - 1 3/8 Miles (Inner Turf) - Belmont - 14May16-10BEL
2. A.P. INDIAN - 99 - Decathlon Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 14May16-10MTH
2. STRIKE CHARMER - 99 - Beaugay Stakes (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Belmont - 14May16-8BEL
2. THUNDERGRAM - 99 - Alw 35640C - 1 Mile (Polytrack) - 14May16-5AP
5. ACAPULCO - 98 - Unbridled Sidney Stakes - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 14May16-8CD
6. CAVORTING - 97 - Ruffian Stakes (G2) - 1 Mile - 14May16-7BEL
6. HOBBITS HERO - 97 - OC 62k/N2X - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 15May16-6SA
8. UNIFIED - 96 - Peter Pan Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - 14May16-9BEL
8. WIN THE SPACE - 96 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 15May16-2SA
10. BIGGER PICTURE - 94 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/4 Miles (Inner Turf) - 12May16-1BEL
10. BULLARDS ALLEY - 94 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 1 1/8 Miles - 12May16-2CD
10. FRENCH QUARTER - 94 - Clm 40000(40-37.5) - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - 13May16-8WO
10. GLACKEN TOO - 94 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 14May16-9SA
10. MIDNITE POPPA - 94 - OC 25k/C -N - 6 Furlongs - 14May16-7NP
10. TURCO BRAVO (CHI) - 94 - Flat Out Stakes - 1 3/8 Miles - 15May16-8BEL
16. OFFERING PLAN - 93 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Inner Turf) - 14May16-6BEL
17. GENEROUS KITTEN - 92 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 3/8 Miles (Turf) - 15May16-7CD
17. YOURDREAMSORMINE - 92 - Bull Gator Stakes - 7 Furlongs - 13May16-6GP
19. GOLD SHIELD - 91 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 1 1/4 Miles (Inner Turf) - 12May16-5BEL
19. HUNT (IRE) - 91 - OC 75k/C -N - About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 12May16-5SA
19. SPACE MINE - 91 - OC 35k/C -N - 6 Furlongs - 15May16-6PRM
22. SWELL - 90 - OC 40k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - 13May16-8BEL
23. CLASSIC SALSA - 89 - OC 62k/N2X - 6 Furlongs - 15May16-3BEL
23. DIAMOND EARRING - 89 - OC 16k/N1X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 12May16-7GP
25. AIRE BUENO (CHI) - 88 - OC 62k/C - 1 Mile (Turf) - 14May16-5GP
25. ARCATURE - 88 - Singletary Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 14May16-3SA
25. BREAK THE SILENCE - 88 - Clm 25000(25-20) - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 14May16-5IND
25. STILL KRZ - 88 - OC 20k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - 15May16-9MTH
25. SWEET ACCLAIM (IRE) - 88 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - 13May16-4CD
25. TRY YOUR LUCK - 88 - Alw 51784N1X - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 14May16-10CD
*Wake Forest's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 5/17/16 - 5/23/16:
1. NOBLE BIRD - 110 - Pimlico Special Handicap (G3) - 1 3/16 Miles - 20May16-7PIM
2. ALWAYS SUNSHINE - 103 - Maryland Sprint Handicap (G3) - 6 Furlongs - 21May16-5PIM
3. SECOND SUMMER - 102 - Californian Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - 22May16-9SA
3. W. B. SMUDGE - 102 - OC 100k/C -N - 6 Furlongs - 19May16-2CD
5. BEN'S CAT - 101 - Jim McKay Turf Sprint Stakes - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 20May16-8PIM
5. CONQUEST ENFORCER - 101 - Queenston Stakes - 7 Furlongs (Tapeta) - 21May16-8WO
5. EXAGGERATOR - 101 - Preakness Stakes (G1) - 1 3/16 Miles - 21May16-13PIM
5. ONUS - 101 - OC 80k/C -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Inner Turf) - 21May16-2BEL
5. WHERE'S THE WIDGET - 101 - Steady Growth Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Tapeta) - 23May16-8WO
10. BRADESTER - 100 - Majestic Light Stakes - 1 Mile - 21May16-10MTH
10. DEFER HEAVEN - 100 - OC 30k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - 21May16-8MTH
10. TAKEOVER TARGET - 100 - Dixie Stakes (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 21May16-12PI
10. TOUCHOFSTARQUALITY - 100 - OC 80k/C -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 21May16-3BEL
14. LADY SHIPMAN - 99 - The Very One Stakes - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 21May16-8PIM
15. O B HARBOR - 98 - Governor's Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 22May16-8EMD
15. SARATOGA JACK - 98 - OC 35k/N1X -N - 1 Mile - 22May16-5PRX
15. WILD DUDE - 98 - Kona Gold Stakes (G2) - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 21May16-9SA
18. IT'S ALL RELEVANT - 97 - Alw 77000N1X - 1 Mile - 21May16-9BEL
19. DISCO CHICK - 96 - Skipat Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 20May16-3PIM
19. THATCHER STREET - 96 - Opening Verse Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 21May16-11CD
21. PAULASSILVERLINING - 95 - Vagrancy Handicap (G3) - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 21May16-11BEL
21. PHLASH PHELPS - 95 - OC 32k/C -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 20May16-12PIM
21. SENSITIVELY - 95 - OC 75k/C -N - 6 Furlongs - 19May16-7SA
24. AMERICAN FREEDOM - 94 - Sir Barton Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - 21May16-11PIM
25. ALABAMA TIDE - 92 - Alw 49592N1X - 6 Furlongs - 21May16-7CD
25. COLLEEN'S SAILOR - 92 - Clm 30000(32-30) - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - 20May16-1WO
25. HAPPYNESS (GB) - 92 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/4 Miles (Inner Turf) - 18May16-8BEL
25. HAY DUDE (GB) - 92 - Clm 50000(50-45) - About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 20May16-5SA
25. R. GREAT ADVENTURE - 92 - OC 80k/C - 1 Mile (Turf) - 21May16-3AP
25. SWEET LITTLE MAN - 92 - Alw 71433N1X - 7 Furlongs (Turf) - 23May16-4WO
25. WABEL - 92 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 7 Furlongs - 22May16-9CD
*Noble Bird's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Video stakes analyses for many of the weekend's major stakes will be available later this week at http://www.drf.com/videos
You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman.
Matt Bernier, Mike Beer and I will be on for free and fun live handicapping analysis at 4pm ET on Saturday for coverage of Belmont, Monmouth, Santa Anita and more. Please join us at http://www.live.drf.com.
Congrats to Pat Gavin for winning last week's HandiGambling challenge.
Rick M and SR Vegas' HG scoreboard spreadsheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.
Let's go with the Arlington Matron for this week's HG exercise.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to update all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...
HANDIGAMBLING version 2016:
Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.
The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but SPARE A SENTENCE OR TWO outlining your HANDICAPPING ANGLES and/or THOUGHT PROCESSES about WAGERING.
1. Start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to find your entry in a thread.
2. You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose that is available for that HG race. Anyone going over the $100 limit will be DISQUALIFIED.
3. Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog prior to the start of the designated race. SIGN OFF WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF YOUR POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST SIGN YOURSELF AT THE END (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to identify who you are.
4. (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.
5. Separate your analysis from the wager and use the PROGRAM # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.
6. If any of the rules listed above aren't met, the wager is subject to review which can lead to disqualification of your entry.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.
The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"
As an example :
The speed in this race are #1 Alpha, #2 Beta, and #8 Ocho. I like the works for layoff horse #5 Cinco who can sit off the pace. Lots of speed in here, so this could set up for a closer like #6 Six Flags and I like the trainer's stats in these conditions. I’ll put the closer over the speed.
$10 EX 6 / 1,2,5, 8 = $40
$5 TRI 6 / 1,2,5,8 / 1,2,5,8 = $60
A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS APPRECIATED !
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A SATURDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)
|WAKE FOREST.pdf||797.78 KB|
|NOBLE BIRD.pdf||756.96 KB|
|Copy of HG 5 21 16 Preakness Stakes .xls||54 KB|
CONTRASTING WAYS TO MAKE MONEY AS AN OWNER
Cyrus Alexander, one of the AOS syndicate MKB horses of 2015, won the G3 Lone Star Park Handicap over the weekend and now has a record of 15-4-4-2 after taking five starts to break his maiden. Earnings just a bit over $300,000. He cost $1.7 million at the sales.
Lexie Lou, a mare who sold for $5,576 at the Canadian Bred sale, won the Nassau Stakes at Woodbine over the weekend bringing her record to 21-7-5-3 and earnings of $1.6 million.
AOS is proud to have the quality of the stable we have, but even we miss one every now and then.
As I was typing a post to you, I accidentally hit the 'post' button. I asked Dan to delete that partial post. Hope he was able to do that. So here we go again...
Thanks for your post. Good stuff ! I was really not expecting anyone to post actual numbers after I posted mine for the previous 5 years. But glad you did in such an honest manner. I could relate to much of what you said on a smaller scale. I am actually glad that I am a poor record keeper and therefore do not have a clue how much I lost back in the day. I think if I knew those numbers, I would be too embarrassed to post them.
I always enjoy your posts. Keep them coming and good luck to you in your wagering.
Not sure if I was clear in what I was trying to say on my post...
It was not intended to mean Las Vegas has vast illegal gambling....it was meant to mean that because of the fact that Las Vegas allows sports gambling (not sure which other state does - NJ got it passed for a day or two last year but was then told to shut it down ; they may allow it now or some other state)...the point being that for those who can't make a legal sports wager in Vegas, they turn to offshore accounts or bookies to make the wagers....thus illegal gambling is vast outside of LV
As a result, I was curious to know how big that is in the UK? This would then hopefully allow the government, etc here in the States to realize that given the amount of illegal bets made each year, it just seems like its time they allow other states to legalize it so they can reap in the profits from it and cut down on syndicates, etc.
Even the NFL is now looking the possibility of allowing a football team to play in Las Vegas. Of course, it has many hurdles to go thru but one of the biggest ones has always been on gambling and what it may do to the sport. But some owners have already said that times have changed and it may not be as big as an issue as it once was.
Thus my inquiry on why the US hasn't followed the model that other countries has?
It would be nice to bet on futures of horse racing but since I'm not here in Las Vegas, I don't have the opportunity. Having 20 horses as an option in 3 different betting pools for the Kentucky Derby isn't as much fun as seeing the 100 names or so that Wynn or other casino puts out.
Bernard - thanks for your email address ; I have sent one to you...
I took a look based on your post.
2015 – online wagers $17,393. 1,803 bets, 424 won for 24%.My most profitable category was refunds/cancellations. The tally says I lost $4,359. I play lighter at home on weekends on the iPad thru Xpressbet. Internet gambling scares me a bit. I tell people I play “small ball” at home (translation playing not to lose rather than playing to win).When I go to the track I play at higher levels though. Usually around $3,000 a day gross with maybe 30-40 plays spread out over 3-4 tracks. Last year I went to Hoosier Park about 20 days, Saratoga 4 days, Keeneland 6 days, and Churchill 2 days. That has me near $90,000+- in handle live at tracks. I did not keep records on live gambling but would guess all in travel, hotel, and the food I would suspect at a 4% loss rate for live bets. As an accountant I don’t need a financial GPS to tell me what is happening cash wise. Lately a lot of my crew is seeing green cash turn to beige lent. I realize the live loss rate seems off based on the Xpressbet past performance I listed above. I have found when I am at a track for 3-4 days straight I generally have a “better“ run. I seem to have a sounder game plan plus I hit bigger tickets and signers usually. Signers coverup a lot of misses. Plus no interruptions, just me and the DRF form against the world.
Bottom line is near minus $11,000 Live/Xpressbet all in with DRF products, travel, and gambling. Frankly the last two years have been down.2013 was up very nicely after some larger hits on pick 4’s. In 2016 I had one super-sized day on May 7 that got me back from the red.
I used to play at much higher levels and thru the weekday more. The last couple of years have been challenging at work with more work volume, staff turnover and frankly as Toby Keith sings I am just not as good as I once was. Gone are the days of playing a Belmont Thursday or KEE daily. I still perk up a bit in July/August for SAR and Del Mar though. The main takeaway I see from looking at Xpressbet side is the number of plays. Did I actually like 1,803 bets? No, but I punched them in. Action plays are fun but they are costly. I tell another sharp FormBlogger often off line that I need to play to win. Playing steady stream of small $10 bets gets you nothing outside of 71 seconds of excitement/pain most of the time but can add up cumulatively to something negative. I need to single aggressively and weight wagers more efficiently when I have a strong opinion. Strong opinions can lose very often too but they are worth backing more. For example Divisdero was very good to me recently. I played several thousand gross that day but had probably only 10% of my gross bets that day on my best bet of the year to date. How smart is that?
There is an old saying I think that goes something like this but I am questioning it now ….”Better to have gambled and lost than to have never gambled”.
RED LODGE will definitely be priced up once she has been declared to run at Royal Ascot.
Enjoy Woodbine, it was one of my favourite Breeders Cup trips.
I wish I could sort you out a 30/1 winner or two - i need a few as well. The truth is I did well with my Kentucky Derby futures; and I think I have a strong hand for the Epsom Derby on Saturday and hopefully with TEPIN at Royal Ascot on 14th June, but my day to day handicapping has been shocking in recent days and weeks. I am wearing out loads of pens recording my list of losers.
I absolutely take your general point about ticket prices keeping undesirables away from the tracks. However, some of our tracks over here resemble old peoples care homes - we simply must attract a new generation of racegoers or our great game is going down the tubes. Some tracks are introducing free entry on one or two quiet midweek dates, but with the tickets distributed through reputable Sports and Social clubs. And some Irish tracks offer free entry to local university students, although i understand that has led to some unfortunate behaviour shall we say.
Best Regards - Bernard Downes
BEHOLDER 8/1 for the Classic and the race still 5 months away? Given the fragility of modern racehorses, is that reward worth the risk of a futures bet? If you do want to discuss a bet send me an E-Mail on Berdowns2@aol.com.
As for illegal gambling in the UK. It happens - you occasionally see it in pubs on a Saturday afternoon, when bettors like to mix their gambling with their drinking without even going outside in the rain (unlike US OTBs, British Bookies shops don't have well stocked bars). But the betting is usually pretty small stakes stuff.
As you suggest, there are so many Betting Shops over here - in the major cities it is not uncommon to see 2 or 3 within a 250 yard stretch of the High Street, there is no need (and no advantage) in betting illegally.
Best Regards - Bernard Downes
I was watching TVG on Monday when a horse at GP, who had just broke his maiden 5th of this month in his 8th try... came back to take a turf race getting his 2nd straight win. When the race was over, Kurt Hoover said...(not quoting exactly) "there's an angle that works quite a bit...horse takes awhile to break md...gets into comfortable level next out and wins again next out"
Putting aside all the other factors that go into a race...I must say what Kurt said runs counter to the traditional "the toughest thing for a horse to do is to beat winners" next out. There were multiple winners in the field...so it wasn't just a group of horses who had broken their maidens.
Is this a question of "the light bulb" finally haven gone on? Taking into account that every race is different does anyone else play this angle? Just curious.
Good luck to all!
I always enjoy your take and thoughts here, this one caught my eye, so I'll put myself out there as a discussion..
"Here in the US, the only state that allows sports betting or betting on futures on horses is Las Vegas and as such illegal gambling is vast. "
Please clarify "illegal gambling is vast " in your thought...
I have quite the argument if you REALLY feel that way.
Last I knew, NV has the most strict and toughest gaming commissions . Period. It is easy to assume that NV is a loose state with all it's previous history ( of Mob influence and such) but because of that, it is an extremely well regulated state in gaming. NO state has as high standards or restrictions as NV. Las Vegas has some of the toughest Gaming Commissioners. I hate to put a damper on your inference, but we hold the standard that other states can only compare to and lack. NV/LV has set the standard for the gambling/wagering module. It ain't easy to be a player/hotel/casino here. And try to get a lottery in this state, no way. Futures in Horse racing, really ? Not illegal, it is an opportunity. Heck, I can get a Future at The Wynn, but I can't get a ADW anywhere in the state. How's that for a NV state restriction. Snort !
It goes to say that there is a hold on interstate commerce when wagering dollars apply.
I won't disagree that many who would like to gamble, will come here. But that is of their choosing. Not because "illegal gambling is vast".There are plenty of other hubs, racinos, Indian casinos and offf shore casinos that may offer the same opportunities.
ok, back to your regular programming......
Great job as always – You know I will be rooting for you that day.
Interesting thoughts on take out. I am not sure I would do better with a lower takeout, but I am pretty sure at least I would have a couple of percentage points of more fun. Also loved your explanation of the superfecta vs. trifecta question.
That is always the question for me too in terms of exotics. They are tough to hit and can sure get expensive. In that regard, when you are cold or just missing, they can be as much a drain mentally as they can be to your pocketbook. But boy, they sure can perk you up when they hit. I have tried unsuccessfully to limit them to a certain percentage of my bets for a day, but that has not worked, I am sure the answer lies somewhere near “pick more winners.”
I commiserate with your weekend and have had ones like those. The Belmont does not seem to have too many speed horses lining up – Stradivari and Destin may be the two major speeds and neither will necessarily be hellbent for the lead.
Speaking of the Belmont
Early Brisnet PP of the probable entrants for the Belmont Stakes can be found here:
Agree with the minus show pools – if it pays out double, it should be a consideration – that means you have to hit less often to still make a profit – not for me though.
In the US now, they often use what is referred to as “dynamic pricing” for sporting events. Essentially it means if the event is more popular, we can extract more money from you. I think the main difference between pat’s explanation and mine regarding ticket prices were that mine were based on big days where demand would be high, whereas his were based on important days, but likely less demand. He makes a great point, be early. I have a friend who has tickets for the hockey finals – he paid $175 each for them as he is a season ticket holder but thinks he can sell them for $1200 each, so right now, he is wondering how big a fan is he really?
Feel the exact same way about the Met Mile and big days.
It's been so long between winning the HG that I forgot that firstname.lastname@example.org is the e-mail addy.