11/14/2012 12:19PM

A Perfect Prado Ride

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Edgar Prado didn't have a mount at the Breeders' Cup, but the Hall of Famer can still ride with the best of them. 

In the Grade 3 Long Island Handicap at Aqueduct, Prado realized that the inside part of the soggy turf course was nothing more than a bog.  Breaking from post position one aboard STARFORMER, Prado immediately shot to the front and took his mount very wide going into the first of three turns.  Prado expertly backed down the fractions and resisted the temptation to cut the corner turning for home in the 12-furlong marathon.  Starformer remained outside in the stretch and had just enough to turn back MYSTICAL STAR in the final sixteenth of a mile.  KISSABLE, the beaten favorite, attempted to race on the deeper going and flattened out badly with 2 1/2 furlongs to run.

"It’s been raining and snowing, and a lot of the water goes to the inside," Prado told NYRA publicity after the Long Island. "I had the No. 1 post position, so I had to come running out of there and take her to the outside. She was happy up there, enjoying the trip, and when the other horse came to her she felt the other horse and picked it up at the end."

*It looks as if Bob Baffert has BANK THE EIGHT seeing dead-red again.  The winner of the Federico Tesio Stakes going nine furlongs as a 3-year-old of 2010, Bank the Eight made his second start following an elongated layoff at seven furlongs over the cushion track at Betfair Hollywood on November 10.  Racing over an inside path that seemed advantageous on the day, Bank the Eight exploded in the stretch to win the optional claimer by 5 3/4 lengths with a 106 Beyer. 

*SAGE VALLEY's last two races have been serious efforts.  He won an entry-level optional claimer over muddy going at Belmont on October 3 with a 100 Beyer and backed that tally up with a 104-score in the $73,000 Mr. Nasty Stakes at Aqueduct last week.  Sage Valley controlled the pace over wet tracks against short fields in both of those races, but jockey Ramon Dominguez didn't ask him for any run in either heat.  He appears set for a hike into graded stakes races.

*Flying under the radar in South Florida is CASH RULES, a 5-year-old gelding trained by David Fawkes.  Last weekend, Cash Rules won his fourth stakes in a row, the $150,000 Carl G. Rose Classic Handicap for Florida-breds at Calder.  Cash Rules is versatile enough to win from on the lead or from stalking range, has prevailed in both sprints and routes and put up a 101 Beyer four back over sloppy going.  The waters will get deeper when Gulfstream opens, but Cash Rules' accomplishments over the last few months cannot be denied.

*Grade 3 winner KETTLE CORN finally got back to the winner's circle last week for trainer John Sadler, but the 5-year-old enjoyed a perfect pace-tracking, ground-saving trip en route to a hard-fought win.  Don't be surprised if he steps back up in class to defend his Native Diver Stakes crown on December 1 over the cushion track.

*Give DAISY DEVINE an easy lead and she will make turf mares pay.  Calvin Borel moved her to a clear early advantage in the Grade 3 Cardinal Handicap at Churchill Downs and the filly dug down grimly to deny JULIE'S LOVE in the final strides. 

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Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures (11/5/12 - 11/11/12):

1. BANK THE EIGHT - 106 - OC 62k/C -N - 7 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
2. SAGE VALLEY - 104 - Mr. Nasty Stakes - 7 Furlongs - Aqueduct
3. CASH RULES - 97 - Carl G. Rose Classic Handicap - 1 1/8 Miles - Calder
3. J J GARBAR - 97 - OC 35k/N$Y -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Hawthorne
5. CHEROKEE ARTIST - 95 - OC 25k/N2X - 1 Mile - Laurel
6. DREAMING OF NENO - 94 - OC 16k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - Calder
6. MY PAL CHRISY - 94 - Elmer Heubeck Distaff Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles - Calder
6. WHY NOT BE PERFECT - 94 - OC 62k/N2X - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Betfair Hollywood
9. BELLAMY BREW - 93 - OC 50k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - Aqueduct
9. KETTLE CORN - 93 - Alw 57008C - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Betfair Hollywood
11. DAISY DEVINE - 92 - Cardinal Handicap (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Churchill
11. JAMES STREET - 92 - Autumn Stakes (G2-C) - 1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack) - Woodbine
13. MAJESTIC HARBOR - 91 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - Churchill
13. MISTER MARTI GRAS - 91 - OC 80k/C -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Hawthorne
13. SEVEN LIVELY SINS - 91 - Alw 51779N1X - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Churchill
13. SCATMAN - 91 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 1 Mile - Churchill
13. STARFORMER - 91 - Long Island Handicap (G3) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - Aqueduct
18. ADULARE - 90 - Clm 40000 - 1 1/16 Miles - Churchill
18. BANK ACCOUNT - 90 - Clm c-14000 - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Hawthorne
18. FIRE ALARM - 90 - Clm c-40000 - 1 Mile - Churchill
18. GNARLY DUDE - 90 - Clm 22500(25-22.5) - 6 Furlongs (Turf) - Betfair Hollywood
22. CLOSE IT OUT - 89 - Jack Dudley Sprint Handicap - 6 Furlongs - Calder
22. GO BLUE OR GO HOME - 89 - Alw 48510N2X - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - Churchill
22. OUTSIDE NASHVILLE - 89 - Golden Nugget Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - Golden Gate
22. SKIP A SMILE - 89 - Texas Horse Racing Hall of Fame Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Retama
22. WATCH ME GO - 89 - OC 30k/N2M -N - 1 Mile - Zia

*BANK THE EIGHT's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

*FIRE ALARM was claimed for $40,000 by trainer Tom Amoss from trainer Jay Severs (deputizing for the suspended Bret Calhoun). Calhoun was reinstated late last week.

*BANK ACCOUNT was claimed for $14,000 by trainer Justin Johns from trainer Frank Kirby.

***

Annie
With Keith L back on the MKB list, I currently show 49.
Maybe Dan our Man will step up and make it 50 ? Dan ?
SR Vegas

Annie, I'd love to take another crack at the MKB.  I feel bad for the poor horse you pick for me, however.  He may not win another race.

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Dan, if your database goes back far enough can you post the lifetime pps for Pet Label? A sentimental horse for me as I cashed my first ever winning ticket on a horse back at the Pomona Fair around 1977, my first visit to a track.
John

PET LABEL's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

***

Congrats to Ned Daly for earning bragging rights in last week's HandiGambling exercise. He selected Friday's ninth race at Churchill Downs for this week's contest.

PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.

Penn National Rick's scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.

REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
 
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
 
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.
PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKER AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY AND/OR ANALYSIS.
 
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
 
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
 
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Best of luck to all.

***

Be back Friday with the HG analysis and some thoughts on the weekend stakes races.

AttachmentSize
BANKTHEEIGHT.pdf656.45 KB
PETLABEL.pdf44.09 KB
Copy of Formblog Contest Hollywood Turf 11-9-12.xls46 KB
HGChurchillTurf.pdf195.57 KB
Scott More than 1 year ago
HG Revised $20 ex 4/1,2,3,6,10 Keith T
Curtis V Slewster More than 1 year ago
HG303@CD, I'm not liking anything in this contentious affair. This race is ripe for a Bomber. Albarado & #8 Stormy Going may forget to stop. I don't see many closers now that the #9 is scratched. $20 Win & Place.........#8.....................=$40.00 $10 Ex. Box.. #8 with/ #7 & #10.........=$40.00 $10 Ex. Box.. #7 & #10.......................= $20.00 Toatalization= $100.00........... Curtis V Slewster............
Alan Levitt More than 1 year ago
HG SCRATCHES Eye of the Leopard scratched because I didn't write his name correcty on my prior HandiGambling wager. Will now put #1 KeepUp on top of an exacta with 1st-off claim #10 Bergerac underneath. $100 EX #1/10 Good luck and gobble, gobble... Alan
Ted More than 1 year ago
HG-CD $12 trifecta 3,10 / 2,3,10 / 2,3,7,10 $1 super 10 / 3 / 2,7 /2,7 Theo
Ned Daly More than 1 year ago
HG Churchill 9th race Night Party appeals to me, at least in part because my early intuition made me go back for a second look. 8 of 10 ITM in 2012, 3/3 ITM at Churchill, and the only one in the field with three wins in 2012. Early speed might hold up. I agree that Strike Impact is an old warrior who cannot be ignored. Nobles Promise has class and speed and black type credentials, but no turf. Keep Up won last time on turf and may be able to close for something. HG WAGER $52 WIN #5 $4 EXACTA BOX 1/2/3/5 Good luck to all (and thanks for the kind words)! Ned Daly
gerald vinci More than 1 year ago
HG revised $100 exacta 6-10 gerry v.
Okiesharp More than 1 year ago
HG $ 10 straight exacta 3 over 6 $ 10 straight exacta 5 over 6 $ 10 straight exacta 10 over 6 $ 10 exacta box 3 - 5 $ 10 exacta box 5 - 10 $ 10 exacta box 3 - 10 $ 1 trifecta wheel 10 over 3, 5, 6 $ 1 trifecta 5, 10 / 5, 10 / 3, 6 Okiesharp
Dan More than 1 year ago
HG--- $25 ex--- 10/1,2,3,7 Lefty out...
Thomas Whitten More than 1 year ago
HGCHURCHILLTURF- 9th at Churchill Downs November 16, 2012 • 1 Keep Up- Has been in the money in 8 or 9 starts. Should be close to the leaders looking for space in the stretch. There are others that I think will be better, but this horse should earn some of the purse. • 2 Noble’s Promise- Will be right behind the leaders, but turf is not his best surface and this race may be too long. • 3 Strike Impact- Off since August, but has had great success on this surface and at this distance. Should sit in a good stalking position and be around at the finish. My pick to win. • 4 Grand Berry- Hard to tell what is up with this horse as his first outing in the US was not good although it was against very tough competition. I like the trainer. • 5 Night Party- He will be on or very close to the lead, but wants to run a reasonable first half mile. His problem is fading at the end. I think he will do well today as there is other speed, but no one who will set a real fast pace. • 6 Dimension- First time on Lasix. Could be in the mix with a good trip. • 7 San Antone- He does best on synthetic, but could be a handful if the pace is slow. I think it will be fast enough that he follows plenty of others. • 8 Stormy Going- First race since June and will be on or close to the lead. Stretching out today in what may be more of a training run with the next race the real goal. • 9 Scratch. • 10 Bergerac- Running first time after claimed and stretching out a bit. Did okay in graded races this summer and may do well today against lesser competition. Wager: $40 Win 3 = $40 $3 Trifecta 3/1, 5, 10/1, 2, 4, 5, 10 = $36 $2 Trifecta 1, 5, 10/3/1, 2, 4, 5, 10 = $24 Tom W.
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Van Savant, I know what you mean. I've been burned so many times, that I hesitate to type out my ticket on here. :) I looked at Sat.'s entries, but too many horses for me, especially when I don't see one that stands out to me. I think I will just play some exactas in the Stakes races around the country this Sat. Good luck to you, though! BTW, I think I see a two-year-old with your name on it. :) Annie