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"The People's Horse," etc.
Dan, can you clarify the situation Greg mentioned?
How would an online player make that substitution?
Help. What is the actual rule, now?
You'd probably get better answers over at the CristBlog for any questions pertaining to Pick 6's, and substitutions. I'm not positive, but I believe that this is an on-track option, and that ADW handicappers may not have the same opportunity to offer a substitute in case of scratches.
I tried Formulator Web during the Keeneland meet, and something that drove me crazy was trying to access charts from the Saratoga meet (some dates more than two months back) and they weren't available.
I just checked, and the charts are there all the way back to January 2007. You might want to try it again. I'm sticking with the software version until all of the kinks are worked out on the web. Supposedly, the enhancements will be finished this year, and then I'm expecting the web product to be awesome.
Do you have any perceptions about changes in running styles/winners as the rail moves out or in? My first reaction is that speed seems to hold more when the rail is at 0, but...
I think the conventional handicapping theory is that the more the rails are out, the better speed holds. Closers used to making wide, sweeping moves may have trouble with the tighter turns. I, too, wonder if this theory is more myth than reality.
Any chance you could post the PP'S of DESERT CODE, Dan.
Here they are:
Desert Code reportedly suffered a minor ankle sprain, and is currently housed on our updated Disabled List on the right hand side of the blog.
A lot of talk about sires recently. One of my favorites is Malibu Moon, but I'm guessing because they are so scarce (the really fast ones), they must get nicked up really easilly and sidelined, and otherwise compromised.
Can I get some love for Malibu Moon's?
Malibu Moon only raced twice at two, and his progeny have had their share of physical problems. A cursory glance of our Disabled List reveals many Malibu Moons that were/are sidelined:
Kanan Dune (chipped ankle)
Moon de French (unspecified surgery)
Ah Day (twice, once unspecified, the other time for injured right shoulder)
By the Light (ankle surgery)
Declan's Moon (throat surgery)
Frank the Barber (bone chip, knee surgery)
Rodman (once sick, the other described by his trainer as "a physical problem)
Spectacular Malibu (unspecified)
Does anybody have any comments or suggestions about this experiment? Dan??
So far, the workout experiment has yielded positive results from a win percentage standpoint, but I'm also interested in the ROI. Are the winners bombs with no other positive angles other than the workout, or do they also fit the criteria for speed and pace? If the latter is true, then it's possible that the workout angle is a high-percentage "coincidence," or a strong addendum to other more established handicapping angles.
I'd also like to see an ROI and win percentage breakdown by distance. I'd assume the longer distance workouts would yield better results. Also, an ROI breakdown by track works may be interesting. Which ones had bullets at Santa Anita? Hollywood? San Luis Rey? Out of town?
I'd like to play the handigambling, how do I start???
The handigambling exercise is every Wednesday. The race is picked by whoever won the previous week.
The person picks the race and Dan provides us with the PP's, right on here. Then you just make your picks with a mythical $100. Everything is done right here on this site, and there is no registering or anything.
You just type in the bets you would make with $100 to spend.
That's it. Nice and easy to play.
Join us next week!
Congrats to Peter Vescovo for earning top honors in the HandiGambling contest! He gets to make the selection for next week's race, and hopefully will be receiving his prize soon.
Back with more tomorrow.
Vic, I wanted to say, very informative post on MD politics, thanks. II have to agree with your sentiments. Spiro Agnew, of course, got his bribe on in MD. Corruption, bad ethics, are a staple of modern politics, I'm afraid, on both sides of the aisle, although I think one side has a harder time differentiating the means from the end than the other. Here's to big fat bribes everywhere.
Gary, Thank you, thank you, thank you for the link to Barbara Livingston's personal favorites for 2008. IMHO, she is the best equine photographer today and possibly of all time. Everyone should take a look. There is one pic of Big Brown with Chip Dutrow that shows some of the characteristics that humans ascribed to him, curiousity and intelligence. Delightful Kiss has two stunners and there is a beauty of Stardom Bound for the lovers of PGHs. There are also some photos of Curlin and Red Rocks that show the eyes and intensity of Breeder's Cups champions. There are a couple of Colonel John too! Livingston's shots of Saratoga in the morning are indescribable. For anyone that can still get their hands on them, Livingston has two volumes of OLD FRIENDS. The first is out of print and hard to find. I was very lucky that I was presented the leather bound originals as a gift. They are priceless in the dignity and beauty she captures in those old warriors. Don't get mad, but I'm going to double post on Dan's new thread too. The link is just so wonderful.
SR Vegas, I have already looked at GS race #8. It is a good race and I'm considering it already. One reason for is that I been trying to play the track without any success and the other is because Z-Humor is in the race and probably everyone's favorite jockeys seem to have amount here. I told Dan I'd let him know Sunday and will stick to that after I see entries from other tracks. But thanks for pointing this one out it looks like it could be another wide open affair.
Alan, Re: my entry pick in the LeComte...(Friesan Fire). At first I thought Uno Mas (One More) was the horse for the course at the Fair Grounds, but then I read Asmussen is worried about the horse regressing slightly here because of a few reasons that he pointed out. So I hedged. Then, I thought Indygo Mountain might be the most talented (potential wise) in this race, but trainer Bill Calhoun said the horse is not at 100 percent, but more like 90 percent. It is not a good sign when trainers make excuses going in...(unless said trainer is bluffing and planning on pounding his colt at the wagering window). In that case, the cautionary outlook could be a smokescreen to drive up the odds on IM. But, I have no idea if BC is a gambling man. I do know most trainers stay on-point and say the "correct" things whether or not its an honest assesment. So, who knows..? Au Moon looks to be any kind of horse, especially if his first try at Keeneland (10th) simply meant he hated polytrack. He is posted well and stalks. Patena has won two straight, neither on dirt, but has an upside and should do well based on pedigree. Dynamic Force looks to be more of a force on grass to me--but what do I know? Citizen, the speed here, looks to be over his head and best at 1 turn. The other speed, Big Push, looks classy, but has never ran 1 mile, and has been run down at fast paces in sprints where he has problems settling (but seems to have mucho heart). So, basically, I am left with Friesan Fire and Larry Jones. Last race out that one was caught up in a speed duel while rank and under a rating hold. He was nailed by Uno Mas and finished second in that 1 mile allowance. Gabe Saez is aboard, and the game plan is to get FF to relax; and Jones said that may involve moving FF to the lead. Whatever it takes to relax and rate. Since the other speed seems more of a threat at under 1 mile, and is to the outside of FF, the 1 post may be a blessing. Maybe I should have flipped a coin like TBTA (Sharon)! Its a good, evenly matched race, nothing would shock me. Alan, put me down for FRIESAN FIRE in the LeComte. Thanks. By the way, About a week ago I posted here about how corrupt Maryland politics were, and how Illinois did not have much on Maryland. I am sure everyone thought it was just me being me about something I felt passionately about. Well, how is this for timing? There is a massive fraud investigation that has resulted in numerous criminal charges at Baltimore City Hall. Including charges against the sitting Mayor of Baltimore (Shiela Dixon), her contractor boyfriend, and a couple of other counselpeople. Unlike Blako in Ill., Maryland dems are urging her to stay in office and are heartened that she was charged with felony theft, perjury and receiving gifts (in a 12 count indictment), but not charged with bribery (I kid you not). Here is the link: http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/local/baltimore_city/bal-dixon0109,0,3147190.story Dixon actually had the crime rate down in Baltimore, and was the first female Mayor (and a black female at that). Dems point out the State Prosecutor is a Repub. who was appointed by the only Republican Gov. in the last 25 years in Maryland. Translation: She would not have been charged no matter how outrageous her conduct was by a Dem. State Prosecutor. One thing is for sure. The big time, untouchable criminal politicians are all in Annapolis (State gov). Glad I am in Florida. Sorry to the Md FormBloggers. It's the culture of corruption AGAIN in Maryland...turns out I don't just rant to read myself later. I actually do know some things about how things are run in the Bizarro World of MD politics (where the real crime is getting caught, not the crime itself). That is simply business as usual. Yet, all the American public is told about is Gov. Blago in Illinois! This even as the prosecutor DOES NOT have enough evidence to indict him on, and has requested 6 extra months to gather evidence before they indict. This even as the Criminal Rules of Procedure mandate seeking an indictment AS SOON AS probable cause arises, NOT at some late date. Blago may be guilty as hell, but his innuendo and vague references on tape are not quid pro quo selling a senate seat, and regardless of what the press may tell you, prosecutors always indict first, and add additional charges or re-file after additional charges arise during a so-called ongoing investigation. So, Blago was arrested for what? Clearly, they thought they better jump then or risk involving the next President and his Chief of Staff if this so-called scheme progressed any further. IMHO. Making offhanded comments about taking bids for the Senate Seat replacement, without an additional party and AN OVERT ACT in furtherence of this scheme, is NOT conspriracy to sell the senate seat, nor is it abuse of trust. It is Blago running his mouth like a damn fool. If being a damn fool is a crime, many of us here in the USA are in big trouble...why not arrest when ready to indict? And why isn't Dixon's indictment trumping Blago in the national news? Why are we fed live news conferences by Blago where he cites poets and waxes on and on about nonsense? Where's the beef? Apparently in Maryland. Again. But, there's always the Ravens, right Alan? They may do it at Tenn. Saturday.
RobertSD, I have found one of the best plays/angles is the trainer doubling up in consecutive races. It's particularly strong with trainers of the ilk you mentioned. Can I be honest here. I don't know why Steve Knapp's name came up, but I can't remember the number of times one of his charges let me down. Too often. Imo, I don't think he's a very good trainer, but if I loved one of his horses and he won the prior race I'd be encouraged, not discouraged, and that's because I have come to understand the relationship between value and public expectation. The public is often very skeptical when it comes to 'journeyman' trainers winning 2 in a row, so knapp's chances - his public expectation - is poor in that regard. Whenever there is automatic value on a horse due to negative public expectation, I try to include that horse. The public can be quite adamant - and consistent - in its particular biases and pre-conceived notions, I've found.
Hi Alan, My contest pick for today race is 'Au Moon'. Last race looks easy on the video and the jockey is very talented. Thanks and good luck to everyone, Jose
Alan, Put me down for Professor Z in the LeComte. Thanks.
Alan My pick for the Lecomte S. Big Push Tony P
Gary, I echo SR Vegas. BEAUTIFUL! Thank you. Annie
Alan, It's difficult to pass on the A.P. Indy colts because I love that line so much but for the LeComte please put me down for Uno Mas.