11/10/2007 2:34PM

Peculiar Payoff

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I'm still scratching my head over Friday's results at Aqueduct, where nobody picked six, leading to a $118k double-carry into todays card. The surprise wasn't that there was a carryover in a sequence that included $27.60 and $25.60 winners, but that 6 of the 9 winning consolation tickets appear to have included both of those longshots but missed the 6-1 winner of the finale.

Here's what happened. When pick-six probables were posted for the last race, there were two tickets alive to the two favorites for a potential $59k and one each to the third and fourth choices for $118k each. When all four live horses lost, to fifth choice Sax in the city ($15.40), there was a carryover, and I expected to see about 30 winning consos at around $1,000. It stands to reason that if there were six "misses" in a race won by a 6-1 shot, there would have been even more tickets that used the last winner but missed one of the two earlier big prices. But then a conso payoff of $3,314 was posted, meaning that there were only nine combinations sold with five of six -- and obviously six of those nine were the six tickets that were alive into the last race.

I have no reason to believe that the Drexel boys are back in business, but this makes absolutely no sense to me. Anyone have a theory?

--Today's carryover sequence includes the Red Smith Handicap, the toughest race of the day and one of only two graded stakes races on the national calendar:

3:44 pm EST: Aqueduct race 8, G2 $150k Red Smith H., 3+, 1 3/8-T(yielding)

The Red Smith drew a shifty field of 12 with only one prior G2 winner -- Dreadnaught, whose G2 victories came in 2004 and who has lost his last 18 in a row. Given the weak credentials of the field, the 11-furlong distance and the yielding turf, I'm leaning toward the European imports in the field. They're a spotty group themselves but may simply have been facing better overseas. So if I get that far, I'll try to be be alive to the German-breds Encitas and Musketier, as well as Sunshine Kid, a repatriated Kentucky-bred making his american debut after nine tries in England and France. I'll also use the improving Godolphin runner True Cause, who had a horrific trip against several of these last time out.

4:37 pm EST: Churchill race 9, G2 $150k Mrs. Revere S. 3F, 1 1/16m-T
Bit of Whimsy is a bit of a standout, exiting a pair of excellent G1 efforts -- 2nd to Alexander Tango in the Graden City and first in the QE II at Keeneland -- and meeting an arguably weaker group here. She looks very solid and could well be less than her 2-1 ML odds. I'm not sold on ML second-choice Bel air Beauty off her 2 1/2-length victory over Bachata in the Valley View last time out. I want to see her do it again before believing the apparent vast improvement she registered, and Bachata came out of that race to be a dull fifth against a much weaker group in an ungraded stakes at Aqueduct Friday. You could do worse than taking a flyer with Cat Charmer (8-1), who has improved steadily from race to race and has a strong late kick.

Michael More than 1 year ago
How about today's pik-6 being hit Steve? I'm talking about 11/14. Something appears very strange, very strange ideed.
easygoer More than 1 year ago
The payoff makes sense when you consider that (I dare say) most people haven't read your book. I reckon lots of folks bet the pick 6 deep/deep/deep/deep/single/single...the point being to stay alive and enjoy it. My question is: why is it that the deeper you go in a race, the more likely it is that the favorite wins?
SamG More than 1 year ago
Personally I would never include or exclude a horse because of his morning line odds,except maybe if they were much higher than I thought they should be.As for easygoers question I think that`s just Murhy`s Law of horse racing.
yuwipi More than 1 year ago
Having 1% of your ability to analyze numbers I'm not able to come up with a theory. However, I would think that no one cashing a late P4 ticket that day was grumbling. 11/8- $19.60/38.80/10.20/7.60 Parlay - $7,369 Pick 4 - $4,680 11/9 -$27.60/25.60/5.60/15.80 Parlay - $ 7.814 Pick 4 - $25,574 Not trying to intimate any chicanery, just that these multi race exotics are often inscrutable to my eyes. On a side note I see the last leg "price" winner of the Travers Day P6 has come back with a clenbuterol positive. Nice. The hits just keep on coming.
Pat Copelan More than 1 year ago
How about the late Pick-4 at Aqueduct on Thursday which came back at only a little more than half the parlay ($4,680 Pick 4 vs $7,369 parlay if my quick math is correct).
Arazi More than 1 year ago
Maybe it's worth noting the ML versus the Actual odds of P6 winners: R#4 = M/L 7/2 : (ML 2nd Choice) : Actual=3.10 R#5 = M/L 4 : (ML 2nd Choice) : Actual=3.65 R#6 = M/L 30 : (ML Longest Shot) : Actual=12.80 R#7 = M/L 12 : (ML 6th Choice) : Actual=11.80 R#8 = M/L 5/2 : (ML 1st Choice) : Actual=1.80 R#9 = M/L 12 : (ML 7th Choice) : Actual=6.90 As for R#9, a case can be made for the winner. Note that there were 6 scratches including the two POE. Those scratches included the ML 2-1 favorite (#14), a 5-1 and a 6-1. If the field was to reassign (as it should've been the case) the ML odds as a result of these scratches, the ultimate winner (#9) would've been an 8-1 -- a legit contender and would've caught the eyes of many P6 players. To keep longshots in TWO CONSECUTIVE legs(especially when one is 30-1) could be really challenging and not many people would do that. Normally, people would think that longshots would be spread out and would NOT come in succession. Additionaly, most handicappers would like to keep only two longshots (especially when one is 30-1 and the other is 12-1) in their sequence and hope that other four would be among the first four ML choices. It would be very uncommon to cover three longshots on a single ticket unless, of course, one have big bucks. I'm sure some of the P6 bettors were deceived by the false ML 12-1 odds of the winner in the final race. We possibly would've seen many more P5 tickets had the winner in R#9 was assigned an 8-1 ML after so many scratches. After establishing that R#8 was won by the favorite and R#9 was won by a reasonable medium shot, the fact that TWO CONSECUTIVE longshots were the real culprits could well be justified by the late P4 payoff which was over $25k. So I believe: 1. A 30-1 killed 90% of the tickets. Come on - How many people will keep a 30-1 in the pick 6? In this case it appears that only 6 were brave enough. 2. A 12-1 longshot in the VERY NEXT race caused a 1-2 punch effect to the P6 players. 3. A false 12-1 ML odds made the final winner a 7th ML choice. It all could be answered if we can find out how many P5 - yes, P5 - tickets were alive after the 7th race?; and How many P5 tickets were alive after the ninth race with the first 6 choices in the finale? I strongly believe that with the winner of R#9 assigned the right 8-1 ML odds (rather than 12-1), we would've seen a lot many P5 tickets. Bettors were deceived in the last race.
Harry More than 1 year ago
Steve, Did you hit the P6 today? Dave included?
George Melillo More than 1 year ago
I hear you on the P-6 pay-offs. Strange indeed. Take a look @ the late double yesterday @ Churchill. You have a 6.60 horse with a 78.60 horse come back @ 186? The win parley alone would pay 250. Go figure? Must have been an awful lot of Pletcher wheels for that to happen since the horse in the 10th looked so bad.