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One to watch
Thanks to everyone that has entered the FormBlog Breeders' Cup Fantasy Handicapping League.
We have 476 contestants. KYL Syndicate is in the lead with 854 fantasy earnings.
If you haven't joined yet, there's still plenty of time to do so.
Head on over to www.fantasycapping.com/illman
The league password in DRF123.
You can find league rules here:
This week's race is Sunday's Sword Dancer from Saratoga.
Most of us don't give a hoot about racing outside of Saratoga and Del Mar during the summer months, but it might be wise to follow ALL OWLS in Louisiana. Listed as a gelding for the first time, the Cajun-bred 3-year-old dominated maiden special weight foes to the tune of a 94 Beyer Speed Figure on August 7.
All Owls is trained by Ron Faucheux, who guided Gantry to the Breeders' Cup Sprint in 2012. While All Owls is unlikely to line up in the starting gate for that race this year, he looked like a totally different horse last week. Ridden by Richard Eramia, All Owls pressed pacesetter BUGGIN OUT from the inside, engaged that foe with five-sixteenths of a mile to run and drew way with absolute ease in the stretch. Buggin Out was second, 10 1/4 lengths better than FLYINGEXPECTATIONS.
All Owls showed some ability earlier this season, compiling a record of 3-0-2-1 in dirt sprints against Louisiana-breds. In his most recent start prior to the maiden score, he faltered badly when stretched out around turf.
Perhaps the ultimate equipment change has turned All Owls into a stakes horse. He cost $60,000 as a yearling, an impressive purchase price for $5,000 stallion Half Ours. A half-brother, Grand Facile, took 6 of 16 races for earnings of $310,660. Grand Facile won at distances ranging from six furlongs to 1 1/16 miles and prevailed in four stakes races. Their dam was a stakes-placed sprinter.
Look for All Owls in allowance or minor stakes company in the near future.
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 8/4/13 - 8/10/13
1. HOLIDAY MISCHIEF - 105 - John Bullit Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Canterbury - August 8 - Race 5
2. ATREIDES - 102 - OC 16k/N1X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Gulfstream - August 10 - Race 9
2. MICROMANAGE - 102 - Birdstone Stakes - 1 3/4 Miles - Saratoga - August 7 - Race 4
4. OUR LUCKY SON - 101 - Alw 28500N2L - 6 Furlongs - Canterbury - August 9 - Race 5
4. SEEK AGAIN - 101 - Fourstardave Handicap (G2) - 1 Mile (Turf) - Saratoga - August 9 - Race 10
6. KAIGUN - 100 - Play the King Stakes (G2-C) - 7 Furlongs (Turf) - Woodbine - August 10 - Race 6
7. CONFRONTATION - 98 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 7 Furlongs - Saratoga - August 8 - Race 3
8. OM - 97 - Md Sp Wt 76k - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Del Mar - August 9 - Race 4
9. GHURAIR - 96 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Saratoga - August 7 - Race 9
9. MORGAN'S GUERRILLA - 96 - OC 40k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - Indiana - August 9 - Race 7
9. RAISED A SECRET - 96 - OC 40k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Del Mar - August 10 - Race 4
12. SILVER FREAK - 95 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - Saratoga - August 6 - Race 8
13. ALL OWLS - 94 - Md Sp Wt 22k - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Louisiana - August 7 - Race 8
13. DISARM - 94 - Alw 46000N1X - 6 Furlongs - Parx - August 9 - Race 7
15. ENTERPRISING - 93 - La Jolla Handicap (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Del Mar - August 9 - Race 5
15. MELLOW FELLOW - 93 - OC 62k/C -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - Gulfstream - August 10 - Race 4
15. TRICKY HAT (CHI) - 93 - John's Call Stakes - 1 5/8 Miles (Turf) - Saratoga - August 6 - Race 9
18. BALOOGA BULL - 92 - R. J. Speers Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Assiniboia - August 4 - Race 8
18. CAMEO APPEARANCE - 92 - OC 40k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Arlington - August 10 - Race 5
18. MOULIN DE MOUGIN - 92 - John C. Mabee Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Del Mar - August 10 - Race 8
21. GALLANT SON - 91 - Jess Jackson Owners' Handicap - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Rosa - August 9 - Race 9
21. LEXIE LOU - 91 - Wonder Where Stakes - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - Woodbine - August 10 - Race 9
21. WILD SWAVA - 91 - Florence Henderson Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Indiana - AUgust 6 - Race 7
24. FLOWER SPELL - 90 - Hoist Her Flag Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Canterbury - August 8 - Race 8
24. MOLLY MORGAN - 90 - Gardenia Stakes (G3) - 1 Mile - Ellis - August 9 - Race 8
24. SALAH CHAMP - 90 - Clm 40000(40-35) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Santa Rosa - August 7 - Race 5
*The lifetime past performances for HOLIDAY MISCHIEF are available at the bottom of this blog post.
*The links to the five most recent blogs (and blog comments) are listed below:
You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman
Congrats to Rick for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling race.
Rick M's scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.
On tab 2 you will see each HG Race we've held and they are color coded to denote if the race was run on Turf, Dirt or Poly.
Annie selected Saturday's Beverly D. Stakes from Arlington as this week's event.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to streamline all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...
With so many new people attending Dan's Formblog we thought it would be a good time to update the Handigambling Guidelines and Rules as we go forward in 2014.
Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
- Please start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to better recognize and find your entry.
- You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose and that is available for that HG race.
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
- Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF THE POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST sign yourself at the end (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to recognize you .
- (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.
- Separate your analysis from the wager and use the horses # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.
-In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.
- The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"
As an example :
The speed in this race goes to horses # 1, 4 ,6 ..Ennie , Meenie, and Mo
Since it's a sprint I don't see any closers catching them.. like # 9 Miney.
I think trainer Groucho with the #6 Mo has the best stats in this condition, route to sprint.. just a gut feeling at large odds ML 20-1
50$ Ex box 1-6
A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS APPRECIATED !
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)
|Holiday Mischief.pdf||724.92 KB|
|Copy of Formblog Del Mar Claiming 8-8-14.xls||75 KB|
I did find the odds for the MKBs in the Travers: VICSTU'S Bayern 2-1 Favorite SONNY CROCKETT'S Tonalist 3-1 ANNIE'S Wicked Strong 7-2 Annie
Bernard, P.S. Very interesting the different expectations of horses' behavior over there versus here. It seems quite a few of our horses sometimes exert their superior strength and do what they want to do. :) Annie
Bernard, OK, after looking at the entries for the King's Bishop, I would say your COUP DE GRACE certainly is a serious contender. In fact, he is the 2-1 Favorite. :) There are only two other MKBs in the race that have chosen to run in this race rather than the more prestigious Travers Stakes at 1-1/4 miles. They are: BIGGAR W'S Wildcat Red at 4-1 CURTIS V SLEWSTER'S Noble Moon (who has not run since April) at 15-1 The odds are not available yet for the Travers, but there are three MKBs in that race as well, and they should be the three favorites: ANNIE'S Wicked Strong :) VICSTU'S Bayern SONNY CROCKETT'S Tonalist Good luck to us all!!!!! Annie
Penn, Congratulations to Mike 0 for winning the HG. I thought I had won it easily because I could find no other wager with the 2 horse in first position. Mike's bet must have been posted before the ink dried on the blog with the PPs. I never saw it. I guess the thing to do now is to bet like those genuises on Jeopardy. Instead of a $25 exacta I could have bet $26 on the 2/5 and won by a nose. Always a next time. STUCKINARIZONA p.s. I know REDBOARDING is sinful but I must confess I had real money onthe winner, exacta, trifecta.
Turnbackthealarm, This definitely needs a longer, face to face discussion, preferably over a pint, but just a couple of further points for consideration if I may. I reiterate that I don't know what the riding instructions were. It may be that connections chose to use different tactics. I am therefore not saying Joseph "moved too soon", but rather that MAGICIAN took the lead sooner than I expected. To be clear, this is not the view of a sore loser - I didn't have a single penny on the horse. The other point is of even more interest to me. Your question as to whether "the horse was asked or if the horse chose" is an example of why I love this Blog because I get to think about the differences between racing in our two Countries. Our horses racing beyond 5 or 6 furlongs are never trained to race flat out, hence the preponderance of Eurojogs. Therefore, the jockey is fully expected to dictate to the horse every time. Of course, some horses are more tractable than others (and some horses are plain nutcases), but it would be a major flaw in the make up of a horse if they were deemed to race more freely than the jockey wished. Best Regards - Bernard Downes
A ha, Bernard, I wondered why you thought Ryan Moore would have won it for Magician. I must have missed that it was because Joseph O'Brien moved too soon. For what is it worth, I thought Magician took himself to where he wanted to race and thought it was interesting that he was up as close as he was. I will have to rewatch the replay and see if the horse was asked or if the horse chose. I'm of the mind that in many of these stakes races, any horse can win on many days. Naturally there are exceptions for horses like Frankel, Zenyatta, Seattle Slew, etc, to name a few. But each horse in the Millions had at least one knock against him whether it was recent form, class of previous competition, travel, preferred ground and then their overall physical impression. Someone near me, who appeared to be knowledgeable, seemed to think Magician was going to enjoy hearing his "hoofs rattle" on the very fast going at the BC at Santa Anita. If so, he will be a tough foe indeed.
Mike A, I don't come here to joust with anybody. That said I don't know who you think you are to waltz in here after "being busy" and make cracks about a term a commenter used in a discussion with someone else to describe a handicapping process. Frankly, I'm surprised someone with so much to offer would be so petty.
Mike A, I don't always get American humour, so apologies in advance If I have misinterpreted your recent post about HARDEST CORE, but as one of those Bloggers who posted a post race comment, permit me to expand / explain that comment. First off, congratulations on picking the winner, but aren't you allowing yourself to get a little worked up? Why are you so worried that others may have seen the race differently? I don't believe I EVER CRITICISED the other jockeys. I simply said that I thought MAGICIAN would have won if Ryan Moore had been the jockey. My reasoning was that Moore may not have gone to the front quite so soon, and I believe that MAGICIAN is a better horse when closing on the leaders. I am not criticising Joseph O'Brien, I have no reason to do so. He may have been following the Trainer's instructions to the letter. Anyway, what do I know? What do any of us KNOW FOR CERTAIN? Turnbackthealarm and Ron Z have both suggested that I am wrong. Maybe they are right, maybe not. So I say again, well done, you cashed a ticket, but please don't worry overmuch if others have a different view and have the temerity to express it. Best Regards - Bernard Downes P.S. You asked a question, let me return a couple. If the 2 horses meet again under similar conditions (a) who would be the favourite in the betting? and (b) who would you bet?
Mike O Congratulations on your HG score ! Stuckinarizona, rkccasselberry, Michel and Felton Congrats to you also for your HG results ! Dick W
Mike Turfmnstr Had you read the blog a bit more carefully you would have noticed that at least 3 of us selected Hardest Core as our pick in the PH contest. And yes, that was prior to the race being run :-) that was Ron Z, Curtis V Slewster and myself. Although I was unable to get a bet down on him since DRF does not carry Arlington, I suspect that the Penguin and the Slewster likely did ? I don't really know that for sure. So your 'mistake' was not in picking and wagering on Hardest Core. Your mistake was coming back on the blog with a post filled with sarcasm, condescension and self promotion. But no big surprise there :-) The hambone remark was an inside joke that you would no nothing about. Although you did not directly use the hambone word, your post implies that all of us (except for you and Steve of course) are a bunch of hambone handicappers. Which is far from the truth. Welcome back Mike. Dick W