11/09/2008 9:17PM

One Lucky Weasel


MonkeyKing So who was the one lucky weasel who hit the pick-6 at Aqueduct today for $56k and deprived us all of a carryover into Wednesday? He's come forward to identify himself, and here's his account of how it happened:

"I usually don't even play the pick-6 without a carryover, but I've been on a roll lately and today's Aqueduct card seemed tailor-made for how I like to play. It was New York Stallion Stakes Day and the sequence included five stakes races, all with a heavy favorite, three of whom I thought were legit and two who I wanted to play against. So I played an A-B-C array where I singled Tall Poppi (4th), Underserviced (6th) and Classic Pack(7th), pretty much requiring that two of the three of them had to win, while using three A's in the two other stakes, where I wasn't sold on Bella Atrice or Spanky Fischbein as short-priced favorites. Here's how my 10-ticket, $1,026 play broke down:

"Once Tall Poppi lost at 3-5 to 10-1 Looking at Her in the first leg, I had to go 5 A's or 4 A's and one B the rest of the way. Once Underserviced and Classic Pack both won, I was alive 3x5 into the last two legs. When Mor Chances won the 8th, I was pleasantly shocked to see that mine were the only live tickets into the finale. The payoff was $56,246 with any of my five horses and a carryover with the other four. I didn't have Storm Harbor, who led until upper stretch, but my quintet included all three who ran by him.

"The parlay was 'only' $20,540 and the payoff was nearly three times as good, even with a winning (by a desperate nose) 1-2 shot. Nothing was longer than a fourth betting choice but Underserviced was the only winning favorite. I guess the keys were beating Bella Atrice at 8-5 and Spanky Fischbein at 6-5, and thinking Classic Pack, not 3-2 Logic Way, was the stickout in the 7th. Also, since there was no carryover, I probably was one of the few people putting $1k or more into an $89,488 pool."

If the narrative voice above sounds familiar...okay, busted, the weasel was yours truly. 

After failing to connect on a five-digit pick-six all year, I've now had three in the last 15 days. I believe this is largely random, a reflection of the roller-coaster ride of chasing high-risk/high-reward wagers. Maybe having a temporarily fat account balance led me to play a little bigger and looser today than I normally would on a non-carry card, and if I'd whittled the play down to $600 I easily could have whittled my way out of it.

But I also can't help noting that the three I've hit have had one thing in common: No dreaded turf sprints.

I know it's more fun to read about near-misses and bad beats but don't worry, I'm sure we'll be back to that in no time.

---Sorry about no Aqueduct carryover into Wednesday, but there's an unusual carry we can chase tomorrow at The Meadowlands. Somehow, no one hit the pick-4 Saturday night, when the 6th-through-9th race winners paid $21.60, $9.40, $7.80 and $26.20, so there's a $21,741 pick-four carryover into Monday's afternoon card. The sequence, which starts at 2:45 pm ET, is entirely on dirt, with two six-furlong sprints and two mile-and-70 routes. With a takeout of only 15 percent and a Monday afternoon pool likely to draw well under $100k, the $21k carryover makes it a rare positive-expectation pick-4 pool.

fred More than 1 year ago
Wayne80 More than 1 year ago
How did you come up with Looking At Her??? Ruined my early P4.
Diceman More than 1 year ago
Hi Steve, Congrats on your Pic 6 score! You are Simply the Best! Personally, I do not play the Pic 6 because of the numerous Maiden Races included in the mix. Sunday's Card, and specifically the Pic 6, was not that difficult. It consisted of New York State Breds running in restricted Stakes Races. I also dislike playing State Bred Races. It takes a superior handicapper, such as yourself, to sort out all the factors involved with State Breds. Nonetheless, I did play Sunday's card and scored with two generous Exactas and one Trifecta. Lately, I have been playing the 10 cent Supers. They are FUN and don't cost too much. I hit 3 Supers at various tracks this past weekend with pay offs between $100 to $200 for a dime and the cost for each bet was only $7.30, covering 6 horses. Great value for a small investment. I recommend this wager for the smart handicapper with a limited bankroll. Incidentally, my Handicapping System involves selecting A, B and C horses. C Horses are automatic throw outs. I end up using only A & B Horses in mutiple 10 cent bets. As we all know, to be a consistent winner, you must be a Superior Handicapper and a Smart Bettor! Finally, I hope your pic 6 scores covers the cost of your recent and extensive dental work! Good Luck and Good Health! Your Biggest Fan! The Diceman
Saratoga_Mike More than 1 year ago
Steve, You're in a class of your own. We can only aspire...
Larry Thiel More than 1 year ago
That's great. You're making it look awfully easy.
ktalbany More than 1 year ago
Steve Congratulations on another big score! I also did well Sunday hitting the 9th race Superfecta. I was expecting around $800 and was shocked,(but delighted), when it came back over $2000. I seem to remember other big payouts that occurred under similar conditions--large fields whittled down to 9 or 10 horses and/or the race has been taken off of the turf. Do you think that's the reason for the overlay, or were there some other forces at work?
kelso13 More than 1 year ago
Steve, Congrats again.Love to see someone having success at this fascinating ,but very difficult game.You are, indeed, the king of the pick 6.Also, glad to see that you did not hedge in the last leg.As I have stated in this space before, why bet against yourself if you are alive with the 5 horses you liked.I agree that you probably went into the bet with a clear head and that always allows you to bet with some confidence.No matter how brilliant you may be,a long losing streak can shake your confidence,cause you to second guess yourself and some how blow the bet by making a last minute decision to pare down the bet.Keep it up,even though I am not a pick 6 player it is always interesting to see how you structure your bets.
Rutgers More than 1 year ago
I have enough of my own bad beats and near misses. It's always nice to hear(or read) winning tales told with humility.
Hammer More than 1 year ago
While reading the "account of how it happened" I was thinking that it was either Steve or someone who read his book. Nice hit, Steve. I also like the way you set up the report of the score, better than writing "I hit another pick-6." Bravo. I'm currently reading "Betting on myself" and its a very enjoyable book.
Marshall More than 1 year ago
Steve - Have you considered filing as a professional gambler and using a Schedule C? Also, thanks for the heads up on the Meadowlands Pick 4 carryover. It paid $703.10 for what was a $298 parlay.