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One to follow at Fair Grounds
INDYCOTT really caught the eye last Saturday in an 'n2x' optional claimer at Fair Grounds.
Making his first start since being claimed for $20,000 by owner Maggi Moss and trainer Tom Amoss, the 5-year-old gelding popped a career-best 99 Beyer Speed Figure.
Ridden by Miguel Mena, Indycott settled kindly in midpack while saving ground. Up front, 14 to 1 shot BUGGIN OUT, the winner of the Magic City Classic Stakes for Alabama-breds two starts back, carved out fractions of 23.89 and 47.31. Indycott advanced along the inside, deftly angled out to the four-path turning for home, and took over the lead in midstretch.
Indycott drifted closer to the inside in the lane, but was gathered up in the final 40 yards to score by 1 3/4 lengths. He completed the 1 Mile and 70 Yard distance in 1:42.67 as the 8 to 5 favorite.
Indycott was bred to be a nice horse. By A.P. Indy, he is out of the multiple stakes-placed router (turf and dirt) Seeking the Heart (by Seeking the Gold), a half-sister to multiple Grade 2 route winner Olmodavor and stakes-winning turf router Slow Down.
Indycott's second dam, Corrazona (by El Gran Senor), received a 102 Beyer Speed Figure when defeating both Hollywood Wildcat and Flawlessly in the Grade 1 Beverly Hills Handicap at nine furlongs on turf at Hollywood Park. Corrazona is a half-sister to Wood Memorial winner Thirty Six Red.
Despite his classy bloodlines, Indycott appeared on his way to mediocrity. He was claimed away from his breeders, Wertheimer & Frere, for $20,000 in his fifth start and has made stops at Del Mar, Golden Gate, Betfair Hollywood Park, Fairplex, Remington, Zia, Oaklawn, Prairie Meadows, Evangeline, Louisiana Downs and Delta before finally settling in at the Fair Grounds for trainer Harvey Lourd III this winter.
Indycott lost his first four starts of the meeting before being claimed by Joe Sharp for $17,000 on January 18. Sharp added blinkers and BOOM, Indycott exploded to a 98-Beyer victory in a $20,000 optional claimer/starter allowance on Valentine's Day.
Amoss took Indycott from Sharp that afternoon and the gelding has retained his sharp form (obvious pun intended).
I'm not saying that Indycott, all of a sudden, has evolved into a future stakes star. But he's now earned Beyer tops in his last two races and has plenty of options. He fits in starter allowances as well as the 'n3x' level. I wouldn't be surprised if Amoss opts for a small stakes race next. Keep an eye out for him in middle-distance races on turf or synthetic.
I'll let you enjoy Bob C's FormBlog Convention updates before I weigh in with the recap next Wednesday. Let's just say this year's FormBlog Convention had it all from monsoons, cancellations and dinosaur attacks, to good food, conversation and horseplay with some wonderful people.
I can't thank Bob and Laura enough for their hard work and dedication to the project and we're so grateful to Mike Nyman, and all of the folks at Gulfstream Park, for treating us like royalty.
Here are the top WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 2/24/15 - 3/2/15:
1. TARPY'S GOAL - 102 - OC35k/SAL25k - 7 Furlongs - 25Feb15-2GP
2. ALBANO - 99 - Maxxam Gold Cup Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - 28Feb15-9HOU
2. INDYCOTT - 99 - OC 40k/N2X -N - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 28Feb15-8FG
2. MASOCHISTIC - 99 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 28Feb15-5SA
5. AFFORD - 97 - OC 62k/C -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 1Mar15-6FG
5. ROYAL SON - 97 - John Battaglia Memorial Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack) - 28Feb15-6TP
5. SAM SPARKLE - 97 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 7 Furlongs - 25Feb15-10GP
5. THE BIG BEAST - 97 - Alw 68000C - 6 Furlongs - 1Mar15-8OP
9. DREAM SATURDAY - 95 - OC 32k/N3X -N - 7 Furlongs - 28Feb15-9LRL
9. GEOTHERMAL - 95 - OC 40k/N2X - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 28Feb15-8FG
11. MATROOH - 94 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 1 Mile - 1Mar15-11GP
11. REBRANDED - 94 - Curribot Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles - 28Feb15-9SUN
13. MCGEHEE'S MERCY - 93 - Dixie Poker Ace Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 28Feb15-7FG
14. CONSPIRACY - 92 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Inner Dirt) - 28Feb15-8AQU
14. DOC GALORE - 92 - Alw 23100N$Y - 6 Furlongs - 27Feb15-8HAW
14. OLIGARCH - 92 - Clm c-(25-22.5) - 6 Furlongs - 28Feb15-3SA
17. FRENSHAM - 91 - OC 20k/N1X - 6 Furlongs - 1Mar15-8SA
17. NATIVE TREASURE - 91 - Clm 20000(20-18)N2X - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - 26Feb15-4GG
17. PALMY BAY - 91 - OC 35k/C -N - 5 1/2 Furlongs - 28Feb15-6FG
17. PLAY HARD TO GET - 91 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - 27Feb15-7SA
17. STELLAR WIND - 91 - Santa Ysabel Stakes (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles - 28Feb15-8SA
17. TALLAHTACHIE LUKE - 91 - OC 20k/N2X - 6 Furlongs - 26Feb15-5FG
17. TORUK MAKTO - 91 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Tapeta) - 28Feb15-8GG
24. LASSO - 90 - OC16k/SAL12k - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 26Feb15-7GP
25. A. P. INDIAN - 89 - OC 32k/N2X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 27Feb15-9TAM
25. DEPECHE CHAT - 89 - Clm c-35000 - 1 Mile (Turf) - 27Feb15-8GP
25. FAST TRACK - 89 - OC 30k/C -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - 25Feb15-4TUP
25. HAIL TO THE NILE - 89 - OC 12k/N1X -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - 28Feb15-4FG
25. HORIZONTALYSPEAKIN - 89 - Clm 50000(50-45) - 1 Mile (Turf) - 27Feb15-3SA
25. STALLWALKIN' DUDE - 89 - Alw 67000N1X - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - 28Feb15-5AQU
*TARPY'S GOAL's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
*OLIGARCH was claimed for $25,000 by trainer Leonard Powell from Sean Williams.
*DEPECHE CHAT was claimed for $35,000 by trainer Jorge Navarro from Michelle Nevin.
You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman.
Remember to tune in to DRF Live's streaming handicapping coverage of Saturday afternoon's racing action. Matt Bernier and I will kick things off at 12:30 ET. You can find us at the following link:
I'm also thrilled to be filling in for both of this week's DRF Player's Podcasts. You can find the first edition at the below link:
For those of you beginning to come down with a dose of Kentucky Derby fever, I've posted the lifetime past performances of the last 22 winners. Let me know if you find any interesting patterns.
Annie and SR Vegas have compiled an updated version of "The 2015 MKB Book of Kentucky Derby Prospects." I have attached it to the bottom of this blog post. Enjoy!
Congrats to Ray for finishing first in the most recent HandiGambling tournament.
Rick M.'s official scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.
On tab 2 you will see each HG Race we've held and they are color coded to denote if the race was run on Turf, Dirt or Poly.
Ray picked Friday's ninth race from Fair Grounds for this week's HandiGambling event.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to streamline all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...
With so many new people attending Dan's Formblog we thought it would be a good time to update the Handigambling Guidelines and Rules as we go forward in 2014.
Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
- Please start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to better recognize and find your entry.
- You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose and that is available for that HG race.
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
- Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF THE POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST sign yourself at the end (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to recognize you .
- (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.
- Separate your analysis from the wager and use the horses # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.
-In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.
- The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"
As an example :
The speed in this race goes to horses # 1, 4 ,6 ..Ennie , Meenie, and Mo
Since it's a sprint I don't see any closers catching them.. like # 9 Miney.
I think trainer Groucho with the #6 Mo has the best stats in this condition, route to sprint.. just a gut feeling at large odds ML 20-1
50$ Ex box 1-6
A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS APPRECIATED !
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)
|TARPY'S GOAL.pdf||723.35 KB|
|2015 MKB Bio Document 2 10 15.pdf||394.86 KB|
|Copy of Formblog Battaglia 2-28-15.xls||73.5 KB|
MikeA, I remember the crystal ball . The conversation revolved around Battle of Hastings . You predicted that BOH would find trouble on the first turn . He did find some trouble coming off the second turn so at least you had the feeling he was going to find trouble . You also touted a big bomber that ran 2nd and paid about $30 to place . I bet him WP . I don't remember his name . I remember the race pretty good because I had the even bigger big bomber that won it to WP as well . I can't say I remember his name either :) I just looked at the board and bet accordingly . I'd like to say I had the exacta but that would be a fib . Two Big Bombers in the same exacta hardly ever happens . It's a flat bet loser over forever . I bet it the flat bet winner way . I was really only expecting one of them to place about half the time :) That would have been good enough. JJ
DavidM , Opinion back at you :) Maybe if Ancient Alien Invaders hit SB with a celestial buzzer he will run 1:58 :) Maybe someday pigs will fly :) Maybe SB should just get 5 lengths faster before we start talking about him maybe being 15 lengths faster ? Maybe he can run faster than BLINGO someday ? Maybe if he bumps into a few horses that decide to barely break racehorse time he'll get beat 5 lengths ? Oops... scratch the maybe on that last one :) JJ
Hi Annie, Just got off the phone with Interpol. Spoke with one Inspector Clouseau. Sadly, he reports that despite extensive, world-wide efforts, no trace of my original MKB could be found anywhere. Looking forward to the next draw. Pick a good one. Sincerely, Elwood Bluze
Mike A. Strong stuff as always. I still believe that the future of Ring Weekend is stronger than you, but that is what makes the blog and discussions more interesting. If everyone agreed on everything...BORING. I actually agree that he beat "not much" in the Kilroy. Decent hard knockers who have a propensity for LOSING, but still paying their way. On the future of Shared Belief, I am going with TBTA view of his "action". No way he is a smooth mover and this will probably get him in the end. He does have a nice burst and clever jockey whose timing is Top Ten of all time.....and I am not a huge proponent of jockeys..EXCEPT in big money races. Tom(who me?) Amoss is on the shelf. Good move. David, in MD the trainers get "points" for each infraction....when they hit a certain threshold....they are suspended. I also think that repeat or questionable guys are getting "dinged" more and more as the testing is getting more intensive. When a "clean" trainer is hit with an infraction......they get the equivalent of a probation before judgment.....and if they stay clean....it can be taken as a "one off". Reasonable to my view. Even with "bad" trainers FILLING the entry boxes...MD has taken a hard line approach. In the market place.....it probably will hurt the entry box...but if they can spread this philosophy to other markets....it could ferret out the blatant cheaters. We can only HOPE.
Mike A – thanks! That makes 100% sense. Off that heavy rain I was wondering myself how it could be baked that quickly. Times really accelerated with a course record and several quick runs. I thought I was betting the best horse at 4-1 against no world beaters but knew with eyes wide open I was projecting another forward move. Got it but needed a bit more. If he places I get out plus some but was only third around $4. I certainly think this one could be a runner as he seasons a bit. I want to see him hit full stride on long stretch to see exactly how much late acceleration he has. The +40MPH debut close caught my eye. One comment on odds – generally I have been pre-disposed to taking value in a race rather than maybe a horse I just like. That has many obvious pros and cons. So I play a lot of races and if the odds are askew I might move to a perceived overlay rather than my tepid top choice. I don’t do it on my stronger plays all that often. I considered Divisdero one of the stronger MSW winners I have seen on grass in quite a while. Not saying he is a G1 horse but felt he could handle a bunch of average types in a glorified ALW race. JJ – Opinion here but I believe generally “superior” horses run quick times at some point. Personally I think Shared Belief is likely the best in the US on dirt on 03-11-15. I say likely because he will need to run down a loose Bayern to solidify that in MY mind. Bayern’s front end A game is very good but you don’t get that each time. I had them 1-2 as three year olds and HOY not Chrome. Chrome cracks my top 5 currently. I hope he runs well in Dubai. Just because SB may be at the head of the 2015 class does not mean he has been, is now or will be historically great or historically fast. I think times are relative to surface, race shape and jockey discretion. Maybe if SB was quarter horsed to the lead, pressured and under urge for 9-10F he might deliver a gut wrenching 1:46 or 1:58 at SA. He might also fade into oblivion. Or if Bayern under pressure threw down a 1:08 change 6F split SB might explode late for a quick time. Selfishly I do like to see superior race horse times from superior races horses from time to time. I don’t particularly enjoy seeing a MSW pop a 114 BSF then go to the sidelines or breeding shed. Amoss I see Tom got 60 days. I have no love lost for this guy. I am so glad Indiana stayed the course with him. I live in Indiana and just feel he is not good for Indiana racing. Maybe he will revert back to KY circuits, CD and Ellis now. I have no idea about Bill Mott or Jonathon Sheppard’s recent missteps other than they broke rules. The authorities may choose to wink and go easy there. I say “do the crime do the time” – no deals. Penalties should be laid out specifically with a progressive schedule for repeat offenders. There should be a breaking point or a Dutrow Point also. There are hundreds of millions being wagered and invested so vigorously and fairly enforce all rules.
knm We are looking forward to your new MKB to add to the Ancient One's Stable. Greedy crusty old custards that we are, FYI, the Ancient One's Stable has collected purse money, since the 2014 MKB partnership, of $7,574,274. Not bad for four basically weekend horseplayers, now five. Your share of Ring Weekend's recent purse winnings of $240,000 for the Frank E Kilroe Mile is in the mail! Retirement is not too bad, eh? RonZ Dick W Yes, it will be interesting to see how American Pharouh fares in Arkansas. I don't have the statistic in front of me,a but memory says that Baffert is 6/8 wins when sending a 3 year old to Arkansas for a Graded race. This will sound a bit strange, but that fact will work about 50/50 for us and against us. Baffert has the stock to consistently beat the patsies east of the Mississipi (oops, Ar kansas borders on the West Mississippi) and it looks like this one has the credentials to keep up the stat. But, how long can Baffert keep this up, until he starts to revert back to his normal per cent? And, will he really be fully cranked for this? Next start, he will be. A good race to watch for me. RonZ
Mike A ..."what that is and for anyone else who didn't know it's sand ".... Thanks Mike . I didn't know. I also saw the ' dust flying at GP ' when watching the races last weekend and was trying to figure out what was making those rooster tails. Thanks for the explanation. They sand the golf course greens seasonally here, and I've yet to see a rooster tail when I putt ....LOL! (Well, maybe some tiny ones) .... But seriously, It all makes sense for race track course maintenance. Thanks for the note. SR Vegas
Micheal Cook It was so nice to hear that you and your wife enjoyed the weekend at GP. " I came out of the weekend motivated to up my game. The weekend was like a figurative shot in the arm. " Yes ! These Formblog outings can do that. Come back and post more often here with your renewed interest. We are here to help each other :) Good Luck ! SR Vegas
Damn, My last post got cut up...It should say "especially if you liked EH Cumpari"...sorry..Mike A
Ron, It's always who and how,,not what the conditions say.....there are 100,000 claimers at Gulf...some of them are really claimers.....some of them are stakes caliber......same goes for lots of races.....it's in the knowing...who beat who..and how was it accomplished..easy trip? 4w.....it's when horses win with adversity or run well with adversity and against who and how fast that counts. Where do you think most of my price plays come from? The reason others can't do it? It's because most folks cannot judge races and the horses that ran them. A claimer is a claimer, a stakes horses is a stakes horse....yet I beat 3 year old stakes horses with older OC claimers a lot.....I almost beat the mighty Ring Weekend with a horse who beat older his time before in a good time and he was 35-1......People should spend the extra money and use Formulator....if you don't know how good a horses races were out of town you can look it up...look at replays, don't depend on a chart caller to tell you how a race was run...they are wrong sometimes.....It's knowing what a thoroughbred is capable of in the real world and comparing that to what a horse does and how he does it.....Some people thought I was crazy betting Felifran, but if you really look at his last race how could you not like him, especially if Does anyone look to see why a horse won, especially if they pay a price? You know "C" once accused me of having a Crystal Ball.....I don't....I just pay attention and I have a good memory.....Mike A