05/12/2008 11:30PM

Odds-on in the Preakness


Here's a straw to grasp at if you're trying to beat Big Brown in the Preakness Saturday: He'll probably be the 15th odds-on Preakness favorite in the last 50 years, and 8 of the previous 14 lost -- including 5 of the last 6.

Here's how those 14, who ranged in price from 1-to-10 on Spectacular Bid in 1979 to 9-10 on Honest Pleasure in 1976, fared:

Note that Derby winners were 6-for-10 as odds-on Preakness favorites over the last 50 years. All four times that a horse other than the Derby winner was odds-on, he lost: Derby runners-up Easy Goer, Honest Pleasure and Hill Rise, and Derby-skipper Linkage.

A $2 win bet on all 14 odds-on Preakness favorites since 1957 would have cost $28 and returned $17.20, a 38.6 % loss on investment.

siip More than 1 year ago
maybe the best is yet to come
TrackBaby More than 1 year ago
Big Brown beat what was perhaps the worst derby field in over a decade. The pace figures for the race confirm it. It was slow in the beginning, slow in the middle and slow late. Over a track which was putting up super fast times all day Big Brown ran 1 1/4 in almost 2:02, Beyer can say whatever BS he wants but there is no way that horse earned anything near a 109 given the final time of the race and given the times that track was producing in other races on the card. This horse will also win the Preakness because again he is facing virtually nothing, one of the worst Prekaness fields in a long long time. Big Brown will meet his fate at the Belmont and Casino Drive, a horse who is far more talented than what we saw at Churchill or tomorrow at Pimlico. And as far as this horse being better than Smarty Jones and the likes, LOL. The horse was about 3 wide on the first turn, 3 wide stalking a slow pace into the 2nd turn and came home in average time after running slow early and middle fractions yet pulled away from the field because the field was trash. When one of your biggest competitors is a Gilded Time colt who has barely Beyered over 100, well that pretty much says it all for how lame this 3 year old class is. Casino Drive will return some sanity to the knuckleheads who are trying to make big Brown Smear out to be some monster by beating up on the worst 3 year old class we have seen in a very long time.
TrackBaby More than 1 year ago
Worst Preakness field in years. Casino Drive will win the Belmont easily.
rcknhrse More than 1 year ago
I am with you on KY BEAR. Bet him in his last start. made a winning move only to come up short. I expect that race put something into him. If #1 stays on the rail and finds an opening he could also be in the ex and tri
kevroc More than 1 year ago
Thanks to andy and steve for your replies. I was just wondering about the trainer being NY based and thus going for it at "home" so to speak. I grew up as a track rat at BEL and AQU (my grandfather taught me how to read the form when I was 15 and his brother ran the valet at NYRA for years.. he was the guy who had all the car keys laid out in his car trunk). Sadly, my grandfather isnt doing too well these days health-wise, so I cannot ask him about the old days. Thanks again and good luck at the windows! Kev
EpsomOaks86 More than 1 year ago
I've believe Kentucky Bear will run a big race on Saturday. I'm looking forward to it.
timisin More than 1 year ago
oh by the way why has nothing been said about ABC calling the wrong horse #rd in the derby? i had the tri with Dennis of Cork 3rd but ABC said tale of Ekati was third. i spent the whole night thinking my ticket was a loser. my morning paper was well worth the delivery price since i certainly would have thrown out my winning ticket without it.
timisin More than 1 year ago
Did you see Big Brown in the Ky derby winners circle? He was dead lame front right. i am a former trainer and although this might be something minor i ask why then is Dutrow training his big horse so lightly. I will wheel "Behindatthebar" with all, all for the trifecta and pray Big Brown finishes fourth.
tim thompson More than 1 year ago
did you watch Big Brown in the winners circle? I am a former trainer and he was dead lame. he had a weight bearing lameness on his front right leg. now that doesnt mean it wasnt something minor but isnt it funny how lightly dutrow has been training him? i like "behindatthebar" as my key horse. i will use him 1st, 2nd, 3rd, with all. hopefully Big Brown will be fourth.
Arazi More than 1 year ago
unitas, Nothing to dislike about Dutrow but given the hisory of his medication violations, don't u think it will be a significant blow to the integrity of the sport if the trainer of a triple crown winner is suspended for drug violation in the future? BB is a great race horse and IMO, it doesn't really matter who trains him (Mott, Pletcher, Dyrsdale, Mandella...). He is the kind of a horse who makes the trainer look good.