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Obviously, Souper Speedy, Joyeuse
Very quietly, OBVIOUSLY has emerged as one of the better turf milers.
The 5-year-old Irish bred gelding took the Del Mar Mile and Arroyo Seco Mile in successive starts last year before acquitting himself nicely in an excellent renewal of the Breeders' Cup Mile. In the Breeders' Cup, Obviously finished third, directly behind Horse of the Year WISE DAN and Kentucky Derby winner ANIMAL KINGDOM.
Although beaten in his seasonal debut, the Grade 3 San Simeon Stakes going down the hill at 6 1/2 furlongs, he ran very well that afternoon. He broke poorly, rushed up to set a quick pace, and battled very gamely all the way to the wire.
He had a much easier time of it on the lead in last week's Grade 2 American Handicap at Betfair Hollywood Park. Rated on an easy early advantage by Joe Talamo, Obviously dusted his overmatched rivals when the real racing began.
Obviously only knows one way to go and that is to go as fast as he can for as far as he can. Whether he's up to defeating Wise Dan later in the year is another question entirely, but Obviously looks to be back in his best form for trainer Mike Mitchell. The $300,000 Shoemaker Mile on June 29 looks to be next for Obviously, a runner that has earned triple-digit Beyers in all five route outings.
The runner-up in the American, LUCAYAN, should improve if he tackles Obviously in the Shoemaker. Last year's upset winner of the French 2000 Guineas, Lucayan was making his North American, and seasonal, debut for trainer Neil Drysdale. He wasn't helped when Obviously made his own pace, but ran on well for second under Julien Leparoux.
*He looks like a completely different performer than his half-brother, the long-winded Brilliant Speed, but SOUPER SPEEDY may finally be living up to his potential. Plagued by injuries throughout his career, the 4-year-old finally broke through his first allowance condition with an authoritative sprint score at Belmont. Although second in the nine-furlong Remsen as a 2-year-old, Souper Speedy may be more of a sprinter/miler and seems primed for a stakes outing in the near future.
*STAKES HORSES ON THE WORKTAB:
Multiple G1 winner EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE, unraced since 4th in Hollywood Starlet on 12/8 (quarter cracks), worked 4F in 49.00 (20/41) at BHP.
Stakes winner FURY KAPCORI, unraced since 2nd in G1 CashCall Futurity on 12/15 (knee surgery), worked 3F in 37.00 at Golden Gate (1/2).
Grade 2 winner BIG BAND SOUND, unraced since 5th in Mt Sassafras on 10/27/12 (injured), breezed 5F in 1:02.20 at Woodbine (16/33).
Grade 1 winner VERRAZANO, unraced since tasting defeat for the first time in the Kentucky Derby, breezed four furlongs in 48.06 over the Belmont training track (7/69).
3-year-old Grade 3 turf winner RYDILLUC, unraced since 4th in the Blue Grass (bruised foot), breezed 5 furlongs in 1:02.57 around the dogs on the Belmont inner turf course (5/6). Scheduled to compete in the $500,000 Penn Mile on Saturday.
3-year-old Grade 1 winner JOHA, unraced since ninth in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club on November 24 (undisclosed), breezed three furlongs in 38.50 at Belmont (25/34).
3-year-old stakes winner TIZ A MINISTER, unraced since third in the Snow Chief Stakes on April 27 (bruised foot), worked six furlongs in 1:13.60 at Betfair Hollywood (4/11)
6-year-old RILEY RIPASSO, unraced since winning the With Approval Stakes on August 13, 2011, breezed four furlongs in 50.40 over the Woodbine turf training course (19/19).
Multiple Grade 1 winner JACKSON BEND, unraced since finishing seventh in the Forego Stakes on September 1 (originally sent to stud after back problems), worked six furlongs in 1:13.40 out of the gate at Calder (1/2).
Grade 1 winner PAYNTER, unraced since winning the Haskell on July 29 due to life-threatening illnesses, worked a bullet six furlongs in 1:12.20 out of the gate at Betfair Hollywood on May 25.
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures (5/20/13 - 5/26/13):
1. OBVIOUSLY (Ire.) - 108 - American Handicap (G2) - 1 Mile (Turf) - Betfair Hollywood
2. SOUPER SPEEDY - 104 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 7 Furlongs - Belmont
3. HOGY - 101 - Hanshin Cup Stakes - 1 Mile (Polytrack) - Arlington
4. WARBIRD - 100 - Clm 20000(20-18) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Arlington
5. CSABA - 97 - Memorial Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles - Calder
5. HERBIE D - 97 - John Longden 6000 Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Hastings
5. SPA CITY FEVER - 97 - OC 75k/N3X - 1 Mile - Belmont
8. R S WATSON - 96 - Alw 40000s - 1 1/16 Miles (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
9. EXCLUSIVE STRIKE - 95 -OC16k/SAL16k - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Belmont
9. LOVE TO RUN - 95 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Belmont
11. CONCHACER - 94 - Prairie Express Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Prairie Meadows
11. DARK COVE - 94 - Louisville Handicap (G3) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - Churchill
11. SOMETHING EXTRA - 94 - Connaught Cup Stakes (G2-C) - 7 Furlongs (Turf) - Woodbine
11. ZUCCHINI FLOWER - 94 - Monmouth Beach Stakes - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Monmouth
15. CONTROL TOWER - 93 - OC 40k/N2X -N - 1 Mile (Polytrack) - Arlington
15. DECLAN'S WARRIOR - 93 - Gygistar Stakes - 7 Furlongs - Belmont
15. SWEET MARINI - 93 - Alw 55000N1X - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
18. BEAR ALWAYS - 92 - Alw 5000s - 6 Furlongs - Arapahoe
18. BIG TOWN - 92 - Clm 50000 - 1 1/16 Miles - Churchill
18. CANDYLAND MAN - 92 - Alw 35000N2L - 6 Furlongs - Penn National
18. GHOST IS CLEAR - 92 - Alw 10000s - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Churchill
18. ONEPOINTHREEKARATS - 92 - Winter Melody Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Delaware
18. SAY OW - 92 - Md Sp Wt 52k - 1 1/16 Miles (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
24. COALPORT - 91 - Alw 40000N2X - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Arlington
24. MR. BOWLING - 91 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 1 1/8 Miles - Churchill
24. NIAGARA FALLS - 91 - OC 40k/N1X -N - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - Betfair Hollywood
24. SCHIAPARELLI - 91 - Great Lady M Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Turf) - Betfair Hollywood
*OBVIOUSLY's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
When you get the chance, you're definitely going to want to check out the premiere episode of "Racehorse," the latest production from Jessica Pacheco, racing analyst at Arlington Park. You can find "Racehorse" at the following links:
It was only a maiden race on grass at Lingfield, but JOYEUSE created a stir with her debut win. Why? She's a half-sister to the remarkable FRANKEL! Check our her race at the following link:
Dan, will you please post the top ten beyers ever earned in the Kentucky Derby, the top ten beyers in the Preakness and the top ten beyers ever in the Belmont? Should be interesting. Thanks.
Here they are (since 1992):
1. MONARCHOS (116, 1st, 2001)
2. SILVER CHARM (115, 1st, 1997)
2. CAPTAIN BODGIT (115, 2nd, 1997)
4. WAR EMBLEM (114, 1st, 2002)
5. GO FOR GIN (112, 1st, 1994)
5. GRINDSTONE (112, 1st, 1998)
5. CAVONNIER (112, 2nd, 1998)
8. BARBARO (111, 1st, 2006)
9. FREE HOUSE (110, 3rd, 1997)
9. STREET SENSE (110, 1st, 2007)
1. SILVER CHARM (118, 1st, 1997)
1. SMARTY JONES (118, 1st, 2004)
1. FREE HOUSE (118, 2nd, 1997)
1. CAPTAIN BODGIT (118, 3rd, 1997)
5. TOUCH GOLD (116, 4th, 1997)
6. FUNNY CIDE (114, 1st, 2003)
7. BERNARDINI (113, 1st, 2006)
8. AFLEET ALEX (112, 1st, 2005)
8. LOUIS QUATORZE (112, 1st, 1996)
8. TABASCO CAT (112, 1st, 1994)
1. POINT GIVEN (114, 1st, 2001)
2. A.P. INDY (111, 1st, 1992)
3. EMPIRE MAKER (110, 1st, 2003)
3. TOUCH GOLD (110, 1st, 1997)
3. VICTORY GALLOP (110, 1st, 1998)
3. MY MEMOIRS (GB) (110, 2nd, 1992)
3. PINE BLUFF (110, 3rd, 1992)
3. REAL QUIET (110, 2nd, 1998)
9. LEMON DROP KID (109, 1st, 1999)
9. VISION AND VERSE (109, 2nd, 1999)
9. SILVER CHARM (109, 2nd, 1997)
9. TEN MOST WANTED (109, 2nd, 2003)
You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman
Congrats to Lefty for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise.
Rick M's scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.
Lefty selected Friday's fifth at Betfair Hollywood for this week's event.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.
PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKER AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY AND/OR ANALYSIS.
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
***FROM SCOREKEEPER PENN NATIONAL RICK***
I read some entries on here and there are some people who put their heart out on their picks(such as DavidM9999) and give you great analysis on who they like and why and then there are others who elect not to give any reasoning behind their entries. The rule I will implement EFFECTIVE 3/1/13 will be... any entry without ANY analysis will be ignored. We are not asking you to put out a novel, but again a sentence or two. Also, I will put communication out when Dan puts out new blogs.
My intent is not to be jerk on this, but what's fair is fair. I'm not taking away from this week or past winners regarding all of this, but we do need to make the change.
If you have any questions/concerns...please send an email to FORMBLOG@DRF.COM and it will get forwarded to me.
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATE THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL).
Best of luck to all.
|Copy of Formblog Hollywood Allowance 5-24-13.xls||66.5 KB|
HG Hollywood. #1= bounce expected from 78 beyer last out. 2= Too Tippsy. 3= Knows how to win. 4=consistent beyer likely Favorite. 5=layoff. 6= my longshot 3-4 in money but light beyers. 7=2 for 2 never favored though. 8=layoff. 9=took 13 to break maiden and has not refired. 10=1 for 28. The bets. $76.00 win #3. $2.00 exacta box 3-6-4. $2.00 trifecta box 3-6-4. Good luck to all.
HG. Like a lot of bloggers I think if the 7 takes to the turf he is long gone, will take a stab with the 10 as a longshot to get in the trifecta $5 TRI 7/10/1-8-9 $5 TRI 7/1-8-9/10 $3 TRI 7/2-3-4-5-6/10 $55 EXACTA 7-10 MIchel de Botton
HG -- $60 Win on #5. HG -- $10 Place on #5. HG -- $5 exacta boxes #5/ #1, #2, #4. Really like that #5 Run'n on Residuals already has 3 wins, where most of his rivals only have one. He's never been on turf, which will keep his price up, but Bertrando over Deputy Minister means he can run on any surface (or should). Trainer has positive ROI on turf and in turf sprints. Backing up with exacta boxes with the #1 and #2, as they're both by Unusual Heat, and that sire is a monster with turf runners. Both of them only have two starts, which means they're certainly eligible to improve on Beyers that are just below the best in this race. Using #4 as well...he's the likeliest winner/favorite, but hard to trust on top. Seems better underneath my top choice, though I'm boxing the exacta in all three instances in case my #5 comes up short and runs second.
HG---- $50 Tri--- 4/8/3,5 Go Go on the first mount back for Jones who feels this horse should have won a couple already. Jones other entry also should fire a big shot as this group is highly suspect. These two have faced better caliber horses. The 3 and the 5 are both speedy types that hopefully one of them hangs on for third... Lefty out...
HG Hollywood I'm having trouble settling on some of these and will enter mixed bets as follows: $25 Xcta box 5-8 for $50 $2 Tri Box 1-3-4-7 for $48 I like the 7 Door's Open off his two starts, two wins. He could take the lead but like many turf debut geldings he may get tired in the deep stretch. Also like the #1 U'narack off his last romp at this distance and on the same plot of sod. He has a top notch trainer and a good grass rider. The #4 Dixieland Blues has obvious merit and will likely be the favorite but he has won only once despite some strong stretch efforts. The #3 Toledo Eddie is a strange one for this race. He has won 5 times but is suspect in the class department. Let's see how he does for his new connections. In the longshot department, I favor #5 Run'n on Residuals off his recent works, his trainer's stats for bringing horses back after long rests and the jockey/trainer ROI for today's pair. The #8, Mr. Ornery, also has some eye-opener trainer stats and a very decent ROI for the j/t combo. Good luck to all. STUCKINARIZONA
HG BHP Turf Sprint I am liking the 7,5 and 4 and will box those 3. 7 - Door's Open - 2 for 2. Seems like he should like the turf with that pedigree. 5 - Run'n On Risiduals - won 3 out of last 4. Also seems like he should take to the grass. 4 - Dixieland Blues - has been coming close and his figures put him in the mix. $15 ex box 4,5,7 ($90) $10 win 5 Good luck to all... Dick W
HGBHP- Race 5 at Betfair Hollywood Park 5/31/13 A 6 furlong, conditioned allowance turf sprint with early speed and four of the eleven entries making their first start on turf. 1. U’narack- In his third race after breaking his maiden last time in a strong effort at this distance on this surface. Have strong trainer and jockey, and will be looking to get a good start to be near the lead. If the pace is quick, but not extremely fast, he will be in good shape to pick it up in the stretch. Will be around at the end. 2. Boozer- Needs to get a good start to have a chance, but will have to improve a lot to stay with this group as it is his first against winners. I do not think the new trainer and new jockey will make the difference. Pass 3. Toledo Eddie- Making his first start on turf today and racing against a tougher group than he has faced. Wants the lead and to control the pace, but needs to get right on it as others may be quicker. The distance is right, but will he be able to handle the heat and the new surface? Could be in the mix. 4. Dixieland Blues- The morning line favorite who has won once in nine tries and that was January, 2012. Likes to come off the pace and should get a good opportunity to do so today as there are several with early speed. Has very consistent BSFs, but has been running mostly on the downhill course at Santa Anita. The slightly shorter distance may not work in his favor. Will be in the mix, but I am not sure he can win. 5. Run’n On Residuals- Making his first start on turf and first start since November after winning his last two races, one on dirt and one on synthetic. Has been training really well and has a very strong Thompson score, so the move to turf may work well. I do not think he will win, but could be in the mix. 6. Bob Consultation- I do not understand the name, and this is his first on turf. I do not think the switch to turf will make enough of a different to stay with this group. He could get off to a fast start and push the pace setters. Pass. 7. Door’s Open- Won both of his starts and moves to turf for the first time today, and his pedigree should make the switch work. He wants the lead and may have to work to get it. The jockey/trainer combination is strong and they are not afraid to push from the start. Best of the early speed and strong chance to win. 8. Mr. Ornery- First start since November and cutting back in distance on a surface he likes. I think this is a training run and he will do no better than third. 9. Red Man Run- Has won once in 16 tries and will not win today as most of the others are better even though he is cutting back from one mile in his race five days ago. I do not think this is Willy Beamon. 10. Crimson Giant- Has a chance if he reverts to the form in his second to last race when the pace was really fast. It could happen. Will not win, but could get a share if he has a great trip. 11. Exotic Slew- Scratch. I like 7 Door’s Open despite the move to turf and I think he will get the lead and run hard the whole way just like his last two. 4 Dixieland Blues will pass a lot of horses in the stretch, but will need an extra eighth to win. 1 U’narack will also be strong in the stretch after a ground saving trip two lengths behind 7 Door’s Open. Wager: $40 Win 7 = $40 $18 Exacta 7/4 = $18 $10 Exacta 7/1 = $10 $ 4 Trifecta 7/4, 1/1, 3, 4, 5, 8 = $32 Good luck everyone! Tom W.
HGBHP $49 EX 4,7/3 $2 EX 7/4 7- 87 Door's Open [7-2] scored at 8-1 after dueling with next out winner Derringer at Santa Anita six weeks ago. 4- 88" Dixieland Blues [5-2] may have found a softer group today and might out finish all. 3- 79+ Toledo Eddie [8-1] tries turf after claim by Dollase. . Anderson
HG HollyPark Door's Open has the speed and rising speed to boot. Goes early and has two wins. Pretty sweet trainer and jock stats. Dixieland Blues has speed and turf history combined with trainer numbers for this kind of race that are far above his numbers generally. HG WAGER $50 Exacta Box 4/7 Good luck to all this weekend. Ned Daly
Investec Derby G1 Will the track record time of Workforce (2:31:33) hold up in this year's Epsom Derby? 7- Libertarian (GB) [15-1] has the stamina breeding that his brother the huge fave Dawn Approach (IRE) [4-5] is said to lack. Libertarian (GB) won at a mile and a quarter over good ground two weeks ago. Couple of others deserving of consideration are 11- Ocovango (GB) [7-1] and 9- Mirsaale (GB) at [99-1].