03/19/2008 5:49PM




It wasn't going to prompt a spree at Tiffany's if the photo had gone the other way, but it's still kind of annoying to miss a pick-six by exactly one nose, which is what I did today when 6-1 Chanced failed to nail 25-1 Credit At Tiffany's in the second leg of the double-carryover at Aqueduct.

I had a feeling it wasn't going to be my day of glory after the opener, where I used two A's and they ran 1-2 but with even-money Explosive Count beating 12.90-1 Golden Blaise. When you use the fave and a live longshot in equal strength and they run that way, it kind of takes the wind out of your sails. Even if you get through the rest of the sequence, whatever it pays would have been 5 to 10 times better the other way. Still, you've got to salute Explosive Count, a 10-year-old Count the Time gelding who has changed barns 21 times during his career and was winning for the 24th time in 83 starts:

Download ExplosiveCount.pdf

I also had two A's in leg 2, the 5th race, though not the public choices. I have no idea why Charming Mandate and Celtic Revenge were 5-2 and 3-1. I had it down to E. Judith at 4-1 and Chanced at 6-1, and I was feeling pretty smart at the eighth pole. E. Judith had dueled the entire way with some longshot who was sure to chuck it any second, and the only one moving at the top pair was Chanced, closing in relentlessly after a slow getaway. Chanced looked 1-5 to me to win the race. Then, in an agonizing final 50 yards, not only did E. Judith crack before the hopeless longshot did, but the hopeless longshot hung in to the wire as Chanced seemed to get there at exactly the same moment. The usually reliable camera guys at Aqueduct focussed on Chanced after the wire, usually their vote for who won the photo, but hopeless Credit At Tiffany's turned out to have held on.

The only thing worse would have been being beaten by Patty'scombination, the statebred filly who established a new low mark for winter racing by winning a Feb. 16 maiden race with a Beyer Speed Figure of 15 (fifteen). She finished eighth, beaten 40 lengths at 37-1, the only higher price in the race besides the winner, who had blazed a 36 in her debut.

Things began breaking my way after that -- Gullible Gal romped as a single, Phil's Blue Way won a spread race at $17.80, Sweet Vendetta won a two-horse race in which she had every right to be co-favored with 6-5 Serious Vow -- but it was too late for anything but two stinkin' consos at $166 apiece. The winning combo returned $30,910 to 25 players who used Credit at Tiffany's, and I suppose it wouldn't have paid much more than $5k with Chanced, but still.

Yet another last-leg late scratch -- firster Queen of Fashion in the 9th -- must have caused some anxious moments for holders of the six tickets alive for $128,794 apiece to her. Presumably they were alive to other horses and hadn't singled a firster who was dead on the board when scratched in the paddock, but they probably had no idea where their money was being transferred. There were three virtual co-favorites at 3-1 with a minute to post, separated by less than $1,000. Only after the race was it clear that one of them, the victorious Count This Senora ($8.40), was the second choice at 3.20-1 to unplaced Sweet Slam at 3.05-1. My condolences to anyone who ended up with Sweet Slam twice and no Count This Senora instead of getting switched to the lowest-priced horse you didn't already have on your ticket. (Why would that be such a hard change to make?) Ironically, Count This Senora was the favorite in both the pick-4 ($467.50 vs. Sweet Slam's $485) and pick-6 will-pays (25 tickets @ $30,910 vs. 16 tickets @ $45,456,) but not in the win pool.

Guess it's time to see if that $699k double-carry at Santa Anita tomorrow is worth a tumble.

Jeff Moss More than 1 year ago
Any way we can get the online PPs for Dubai World Cup Day before the races go off?
DamonRunyon More than 1 year ago
Hey Flip, Congrats on your "recent" scores. Did you catch Jim Dandy? The Lemon Drop Kid gave me the tip. I shared a $50 win bet on him. Seriously, Watchmaker is giving rankings. Is there any reason to rank Court Vision over Pyro at this point? Will CV even see the gate on derby day, which post will he get? How will he run in the wood. 17-1 could be an underlay
Wayne80 More than 1 year ago
Thanks for the Explosive Count link, quite an interesting journey for America's Horse. He truly lives up to the name now having competed at 25 different tracks. Has to be close to a Guiness world's records, many have started more often than his 82 starts, but many have traveled the country like this guy. Deserves a Kenny Lofton like tv commercial.
Bryan More than 1 year ago
Steve, I have to disagree with you on the Sundays column you wrote. While I can see maybe changing it for Palm Sunday, I see no reason why any racetrack should be open on a major holiday like Easter. Let the workers have a break every now and then, give them a Sunday where they can enjoy being with their families (religious or not). Life and racing is not just about the money that is generated at the track all the time in my opinion. I fully admit the gambling dollar is what keeps our sport alive, but staying closed one day like Easter is not going to drive the sport under. I think a compromise for the scared politicians would be to say...ok...lets open for Palm Sunday, but remained closed for Easter. I think that would keep everyone happy.
Nick Briglia More than 1 year ago
Steve, I asked Dan about Beyer pars being listed at the top of each race in the form like they do at brisnet.com and he mentioned that it has been discussed. Can you add anything and don't you agree that they should be there?
George315 More than 1 year ago
Not to gloat because I missed the odds on choice in the 6th but I used Credit At Tiffany's as an A for the following reasons: 1) Read the official comments in her debut: "Won with speed to spare". 2) You can throw out her last race where she was wiped out at the start. 3) She was a 2yo F when she won her debut, with room to develop quickly. Gallucio had decent stats with the time frame. Surely a horse with EXTREME value. I feel 'smart' for using her as an "A" but ultra stupid for refusing to use Gullible Gal. AAARRGGH!!!!
kevroc More than 1 year ago
Hey Steve, almost the exact outcome for me. But, i actually gave Credit At Tiffany's a long look (honestly). She was lightly raced and had an excuse in last. She plenty left in the tank going away to win by 4.5 in her debut. Speed was holding nicely on the oval and if she could handle the slop, she had a shot. The reason I came off of her was that I thought the rail horse had more proven speed and "Credit" was a state-bred going two turns for the first time... I went with what I thought was "safe" by using #1 & #6. I didn't think pace would be hot enough for the Luzzi/Levine charge that you liked. So, when the gate popped and #1 walked out... I looked at the sky and prayed "Credit" would quit. The rest is history and another 5 of 6. Time to do homework on Santa Anita, nevermind the bad beats... just deal the cards...
Arcstats More than 1 year ago
Let's see, another monster Pick-6 carryover @ AQU, and another late scratch incident that probably banged someone the wrong way. Listen up all Pick-6 players - STOP PLAYING UNTIL THE RULES ARE CHANGED!!! You can't be this stupid to continue to chase this bet under the current conditions. Get organized and force some changes.....Oh wait, you can't - too busy tomorrow - there's a bigger carryover @ SA. Just hope you're not the next sucker to get hosed by the pathetic rules governing this wager.
david More than 1 year ago
being happy about 5 out of 6 is ridiculous. it's like handicapping a good longshot, losing by a nose, and feeling happy about the result. to advance handle, how about carrying the conso amount over ? so yesterday, when $900,000 is bet, rather than an insignificant $166 times 2,3,or 4, we get ANOTHER shot by leaving $200,000 BACK IN THE POOL!!!
bob m. More than 1 year ago
i also was beaten by 'tiffany' i also took a long look at her debut and ultimately dropped her due to lack of guts and cash.. however the real killer for me was when untopable dropped the anchor in the 7th race with about 100 yards to go!! was i the only one who thought that race was over? phils blue way was passed by bailero at the top of the stretch on the inside while untopable opened up 5 lengths.. bailero falls apart and here comes the horse who chased untopable around the track coming after him in the last 100 yards!! clearly an optical illusion as untopable stopped to a crawl.. i absolutely loved his lone speed on yesterdays track and singled him.. oh well, maybe next time..