01/28/2015 4:45PM

New York breds in Florida

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UPSTART looked pretty good winning his 3-year-old debut, the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes going 1 1/16 Miles at Gulfstream Park.

Sent away the second choice in the nine-horse field, Upstart prompted BLUEGRASS SINGER and FIRST DOWN three wide through moderate fractions of 24.52 and 48.82. The ridgling inherited the two path on the final turn when First Down punted, and drew away to score by a comfortable 5 1/2 lengths over favored FROSTED. Upstart polished off his final 2 1/2 furlongs in 31.10 seconds, and completed the distance in 1:43.61, a final time good enough for a career-best 105 Beyer Speed Figure.

Winning trainer Rick Violette couldn't have been happier with the ride from jockey Jose Ortiz. “I thought it (the pace) would be much quicker," Violette told track publicity following the Holy Bull. "One speed scratched and Kiaran’s horse (Frosted) was between a rock and a hard place (from the rail). They were coming off the bench, too. When they went 24 (seconds for the first quarter), I said, ‘We’re in a good spot.’ When they went 48, I said, ‘We’re in exactly the right spot.’ You couldn’t have asked for a better ride.”

Ortiz was impressed. "By the half-mile pole I let him go and said, ‘Let’s see what we have here,’ and when we turned for home we rolled. He was very good."

Bred by Mrs. Gerald A. Nielsen, Upstart was foaled on April 13, 2012 in New York. He was purchased by Ralph M. Evans for $130,000 as a yearling.

Upstart's sire, Flatter, was a talented but fragile performer. A son of A.P. Indy, Flatter prevailed four times at distances ranging from 7 1/2 furlongs (109 Beyer at Churchill Downs) to 1 1/8 miles. He placed third in his lone stakes appearance, the Grade 2 Washington Park Handicap at Arlington Park.

From eight crops to race, Flatter's lone Grade 1 winner is Flat Out, a versatile performer that prevailed in the Cigar Mile as well as two editions of the Jockey Club Gold Cup at 1 1/4 miles.

Upstart's dam, the unraced Party Silks (by Belmont Stakes winner Touch Gold), is a half-sister to Grade 2 sprint winner Josh's Madelyn. The second dam, Intend to Win (by Housebuster), was a stakes-placed router. Third dam Intently (by Drone) won three stakes races sprinting on dirt.

Upstart has credentials. He was a good 2-year-old, finishing second in a sloppy renewal of the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes before placing third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Although he handled the 8 1/2 furlongs of the Holy Bull with aplomb, one must wonder if this pedigree is best suited to the 1 1/4 miles of the Kentucky Derby. Touch Gold provides some stamina, but it must be noted there is a good amount of speed in the bloodlines.

Look for Upstart to continue down the Kentucky Derby trail with a start in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream on February 21

*Upstart wasn't the only New York-bred to impress in South Florida over the past few weeks. WEEKEND HIDEAWAY, a 5-year-old sprinter trained by Phil Serpe, exploded to a 107-Beyer romp in the $100,000 Sunshine Millions Sprint at six furlongs on January 17. This was the first year that the Sunshine Millions events were open to horses bred in New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland, as well as Florida.

The Sunshine Millions Sprint was the fifth stakes victory for Weekend Hideaway, a son of Speightstown out of an unplaced half-sister to Grade 3-placed synthetic router Giant Finish. The versatile Weekend Hideaway has now won sprint stakes races on both turf and dirt, but the Sunshine Millions Sprint was, by far, the fastest race of his 20-start career (his previous best Beyer was the 97 earned when taking the $100,000 John B. Morrissey Stakes at Saratoga on August 15).

In the Sunshine Millions Sprint, Weekend Hideaway, piloted by Javier Castellano, pressed odds-on favorite HAPPY MY WAY from the outside through splits of 22.76 and 44.96. Weekend Hideaway moved to the front turning for home, and was never threatened in the stretch. He finished off his final quarter in a strong 23.51 with a last eighth in 11.91. Weekend Hideaway ran six furlongs in 1:08.64 and received a 107 Beyer.

Perhaps we'll see Weekend Hideaway compete against open company in the Grade 3 Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes on February 21.

***

Here are the top WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 1/13/15 - 1/19/15:

1. WEEKEND HIDEAWAY - 107 - Sunshine Millions Sprint - 6 Furlongs - 17Jan15-5GP
2. CARVE - 106 - Fifth Season Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - 16Jan15-8OP
3. GHAREEB - 104 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 1 Mile - 19Jan15-10GP
4. HARD ACES - 103 - Louisiana Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles - 17Jan15-7FG
5. SR. QUISQUEYANO - 101 - Sunshine Millions Classic - 1 1/8 Miles - 17Jan15-10GP
6. MANCHURIAN HIGH - 100 - Sunshine Millions Turf - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 17Jan15-6GP
6. MICROMANAGE - 100 - Jazil Stakes - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Inner Dirt) - 19Jan15-8AQU
6. SIR BOND - 100 - Alw 25000s - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - 15Jan15-3AQU
9. BET SEATTLE - 99 - OC 62k/C -N - 6 Furlongs - 18Jan15-5FG
10. HIP FOUR SIXTYNINE - 98 - Fremont Stakes - 1 Mile - 17Jan15-8DED
10. SNUGGLEY BEAR - 98 - OC 40k/N1X -N - 1 Mile - 19Jan15-7SA
12. CAPTAIN SERIOUS - 97 - Hollie Hughes Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - 18Jan15-8AQU
13. STRING KING - 96 - Colonel E. R. Bradley Handicap (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 17Jan15-8FG
13. THE SANDMAN - 96 - OC 17k/N1X -N - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 18Jan15-7FG
15. SANDBAR - 95 - OC 40k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - 15Jan15-1FG
16. GHOST IS CLEAR - 94 - Forego Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack) - 17Jan15-6TP
16. SKY BLAZER - 94 - OC 100k/C -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 16Jan15-9GP
16. U S CITIZEN - 94 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 17Jan15-5SA
19. COUGAR RIDGE - 93 - OC 40k/N2X - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 19Jan15-6FG
19. I'M A CHATTERBOX - 93 - Silverbulletday Stakes - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 17Jan15-9FG
19. RIDE ON CURLIN - 93 - OC 30k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - 15Jan15-9OP
19. RIENZI - 93 - OC 25k/N2X - 1 Mile - 17Jan15-7PRX
23. CITY OF WESTON - 92 - OC 62k/N2X - 7 Furlongs - 14Jan15-8GP
23. FANTASTIC STYLE - 92 - Md Sp Wt 57k - 6 Furlongs - 19Jan15-3SA
23. POWER PED - 92 - Cotton Fitzsimmons Mile Handicap - 1 Mile (Turf) - 17Jan15-7TUP

*WEEKEND HIDEAWAY's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

Here are the top WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 1/20/15 - 1/26/15:

1. IVAN FALLUNOVALOT - 108 - OC 50k/N$Y -N - 6 Furlongs - 22Jan15-8OP
2. UPSTART - 105 - Holy Bull Stakes (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles - 24Jan15-9GP
3. COALPORT - 102 - John B. Connally Turf Cup - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 24Jan15-7HOU
3. KHOZAN - 102 - Md Sp Wt 40k - 7 Furlongs - 24Jan15-6GP
5. JOY BOY - 97 - OC 62k/C -N - 1 Mile - 25Jan15-8OP
6. CASSATT - 96 - Houston Ladies Classic - 1 1/16 Miles - 24Jan15-8HOU
6. HEITAI - 96 - Frontier Utilities Turf Sprint Stakes - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 24Jan15-5HOU
6. PAROLED - 96 - OC 40k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 24Jan15-8FG
9. PURE TACTICS - 96 - Clocker's Corner Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 25Jan15-8SA
9. STAR HARBOUR - 95 - Pelican Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 24Jan15-9TAM
11. GO WEST MARIE - 94 - Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf Sprint - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 24Jan15-7SA
11. LOCHTE - 94 - Tampa Bay Stakes (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 24Jan15-8TAM
11. PERCHANCE - 94 - OC 75k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - 22Jan15-2GP
14. ALERT BAY - 93 - California Cup Turf Classic - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 24Jan15-9SA
14. BRASS PEAR - 93 - OC 40k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - 25Jan15-4AQU
16. BARBADOS - 92 - Hutcheson Stakes (G3) - 7 Furlongs - 24Jan15-7GP
16. REBRANDED - 92 - OC 25k/C -N - 1 Mile - 25Jan15-8SUN
18. CASTLETOWN - 91 - Swift Stakes - 5 1/2 Furlongs - 24Jan15-7TUP
19. DOUBLE SECRET - 90 - Lightning City Stakes - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 24Jan15-10TAM
19. DUKE OF THE CITY - 90 - Clm 12500 - 1 1/16 Miles (Inner Dirt) - 23Jan15-1AQU
19. GRAZEN SKY - 90 - Md Sp Wt 56k - 6 Furlongs - 24Jan15-1SA
19. TIZ SARDONIC JOE - 90 - Clm 20000 - 7 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 22Jan15-7GP
23. EXODUS - 89 - Allen's Landing Stakes - 7 Furlongs - 24Jan15-6HOU
23. FOREST CHATTER - 89 - OC 20k/N1X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 24Jan15-3SA
23. REGULUS - 89 - Clm 50000 - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - 22Jan15-5AQU
23. STARTER - 89 - Alw ---s - 6 Furlongs - 23Jan15-6OP
23. SUBTLE INDIAN - 89 - OC 50k/N2L -N - 6 Furlongs - 23Jan15-9OP

*IVAN FALLUNOVALOT's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

***

Dan, the answer man
GP jan16- race 9 100k claimers turf 1 1/16-145.
race 10 20k claimers turf 1 1/16- 141
i am truly baffled in a 4 second difference, can someone enlighten me
thanks
Brandon Parks

Race 9 (SKY BLAZER, 94 Beyer) was contested with the rails set at 48 feet. Race 10 (LIGHTHOUSE SOUND, 86 Beyer) was run with the rails moved to 108 feet.

***

Dan
Why are there no replays in Formulator for the Fairgrounds? All of the other tracks seem to be there.
Thanks
RonZ

They seem to be there now.

***

Dan,
Seems like in past years NHC contests, there was a place to view all of the wagers made by the contestants after the tournament was over.
Do you know of any link where there might be one this year? Especially, of the winner's wagers, John O'Neil.
Thanks
RonZ

It's probably best to check Pete Fornatale's blog on our website. He is the tournament guru.

***

For those of you beginning to come down with a dose of Kentucky Derby fever, I've posted the lifetime past performances of the last 22 winners. Let me know if you find any interesting patterns.

***

Annie and SR Vegas have compiled "The 2015 MKB Book of Kentucky Derby Prospects." I have attached it to the bottom of this blog post. Enjoy!

***

You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman.

The video previews for the weekend graded stakes races will be available later in the week at the following link:

http://www.drf.com/videos#stakes-previews


***

Congrats to High On Poker for finishing first in the most recent HandiGambling tournament.

Rick M's scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.

On tab 2 you will see each HG Race we've held and they are color coded to denote if the race was run on Turf, Dirt or Poly.

Let's go with Saturday's Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs for this week's exercise.


PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.


SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to streamline all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...

With so many new people attending Dan's Formblog we thought it would be a good time to update the Handigambling Guidelines and Rules as we go forward in 2014.

Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

HANDIGAMBLING:

-  Please start your post with  HG or HANDIGAMBLING to better recognize and find your entry.

-  You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose and that is available for that HG race.
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.

- Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF THE POST.  Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST sign yourself at the end (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to recognize you .

- (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes.  Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.

- Separate your analysis from the wager and use the horses # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.

-In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.

- The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"

As an example :

HG 2014
The speed in this race goes to  horses # 1, 4 ,6 ..Ennie , Meenie, and Mo
Since it's a sprint I don't see any closers catching them.. like # 9 Miney.
I think trainer Groucho with the #6 Mo has the best stats in this condition, route to sprint.. just a gut feeling at large odds ML 20-1

HG wager
50$ Ex box 1-6
total $100

Thanks Dan!

Harpo
---------------------------------

A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS APPRECIATED !
 
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.

ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)

AttachmentSize
Sprinters.pdf727.22 KB
DERBYWINNERS.pdf901.9 KB
2015 MKB Bio Document.pdf373.07 KB
Copy of Formblog Lecomte Stakes 1-17-15.xls70 KB
SAMDAVIS.pdf142.5 KB
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Another from the previous thread if that's okay..... DavidM9999 and Pat Gavin, Re those "maddening" long commercial breaks in your NFL games, has any TV company ever tried to market a package that reduces the amount of commercials shown? I realise that the piper has to be paid - that applies the world over and whatever the sport - but has no one ever considered that a more fan friendly product might attract an even bigger audience? Apologies if my rationale is totally screwed, but what I was wondering was whether a bigger audience but watching fewer commercials might be a win / win situation for viewers, TV company and advertisers? Best Regards - Bernard Downes P.S. Are your MLS games televised live? If so, do you know if they break other than at half time?
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Correction: Make that 5 non-MKBs in DORTMUND'S race. Annie
Jim Lehman More than 1 year ago
Annie, thanks for all the info n updates. Looking forward to Dortmunds running in the Robert Lewis. will be looking for Calvin's breakdown later in the week. I know he's high on Rock Shandy.
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
MKB UPDATE: And the other points race, the GR3 Robert B. Lewis at SA: ONLY ONE MKB! JIM LEHMAN'S Dortmund Jim, well they're trying to make it easy for you. Only 4 non-MKBs are even going to try to beat you. Good luck!!! Annie
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
MKB UPDATE: More points for the asking. We have 3 MKBs that will contest the GR3 Withers at AQU on Sat: YUWIPI'S El Kabeir JJ'S Classy Class ALYDARANDEASY'S Far From Over Good luck, guys!!! An MKB trifecta would be really nice. :) Annie
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
OK, Mike Watchmaker and Jay Privman have posted their first Derby Watch 20. Fifteen of the twenty are MKBs, including the top six! :) (Mike Watchmaker's odds). 1. KATIEATTHERAIL'S Texas Red 8-1 2. ANNIE'S Upstart 10-1 :) :) :) 3. AOS DICK W'S American Pharoah 12-1 4. AOS RON ZUERCHER'S Carpe Diem 12-1 5. JIM LEHMAN'S Dortmund 12-1 6. LAURA'S Daredevil 15-1 7. - 8. AOS BERNARD DOWNES' Competitive Edge 20-1 9. YUWIPI'S El Kabeir 20-1 10. - 11. NAR'S Frosted 20-1 12. YOU FEEL LUCKY'S Imperia 20-1 13. MIKE O'S International Star 20-1 14. - 15. CURTIS V SLEWSTER'S Ocho Ocho Ocho 20-1 16. WHACKYMACKY'S The Great War 20-1 17. JJ'S Classy Class 30-1 18. RICK'S Far Right 30-1 19. - 20. - Disclaimer: The MKB does not advertise the names of the Non-MKBs. It is best not to mention their names, unless of course they end up in the MKB in mid-March. :) Annie
VanSavant More than 1 year ago
Folks; Yes, I have been away for a bit, but have been playing. Only Downhill Turf sprints at Santa Anita… that is all that I have played exclusively since 12/27/14. I am having some good success with my ROI, but not so much with my Win % (20%). I also haven’t posted anything related to my daughter’s swimming, or any food-related stories because it seems that Curtis V. Slewster has issues with this. I wished he had posted those here, or emailed me directly, but he chose a different site to call me out and insult me for this style that I have. I will keep it to myself, I suppose. There are two Downhill races total for tomorrow and Friday, but neither looked appealing to me. I will keep an eye peeled for this weekend’s races, but it’s a big weekend for someone I know :). Later gators vs
dodgevadar More than 1 year ago
Dan, what was Prospect Park's beyer from the Allowance Race on 1/30 at SA?
gerald vinci More than 1 year ago
oakiesharp I'm not sure of the distances you inquired about but I can tell you that sub twenty-two turn times are not uncommon on the downhill course.Running downhill can make you run really fast.I usually ignore those splits.
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Good luck also to TURNBACKTHEALARM, whose COMMISSIONER will run in the Donn Handicap on Sat.!!!! Annie