12/04/2010 1:26PM

My Charmer, Tropical Turf, Bayakoa


The two graded turf races at Calder this afternoon feature full fields of evenly-matched horses.  Let's take a look:

My Charmer Handicap (Calder Race 9, Turf Firm, Scratch #13, #14, #15, #16):

I'm a big fan of ASKBUT I WON'TTELL.  I'm never right when it comes to correctly assessing her chances, but I'm a big fan nonetheless.  I liked her in the Grade 3 Modesty Handicap on July 17, and she finished fifth after a rotten trip.  I liked her as an upset chance in the Grade 1 Spinster at Keeneland, and she ran a dismal last.  In her most recent start, I stayed away from her, and she took the Grade 3 Cardinal Handicap at 6-1 odds.  I zig, she zags, and that's life.  The Cardinal left me hot and cold at the same time.  She was checked in midstretch, was forced to alter course to the four path, and still roared home her last furlong in 11.70 to score.  But, I didn't think the Cardinal was a very strong race and Askbut I Won'ttell now must break from post 10 against, arguably, better horses in a relatively paceless race.  I'll use her in multi-race wagers, but I'll side against her with my top pick, TRIP FOR A. J..
Trip for A. J. is a lightly-raced three-year-old filly that is giving up a ton of experience in this race, but she also looms the controlling speed from the inside.  Two starts back, in the Calder Oaks, Trip for A.J. whipped three next-out winners after being allowed to set her own tempo up front.  She tired as the betting favorite in her most recent race, but that start was on dirt.  Trip for A.J., a filly that has reportedly suffered problems with her feet, may be a little more comfortable on turf at this stage in her career. 
EVADING TEMPETE sold for 370,000 Euros in early October, and will make her first start in North American for trainer Patrick Biancone.  A Group 3 winner in Italy, Evading Tempete fits well from a class perspective, but has yet to try this distance. 
I will try to beat MARY'S FOLLIES, the morning line favorite.  Both of her big wins in 2009 came with the aid of perfect trips, and she's raced only once this year.  She's also mired in post position eleven.
Selections:  Trip for A. J., Evading Tempete, Askbut I Won'ttell

Tropical Turf Handicap (Calder Race 11, Turf Firm, Scratch #11, #13, #15, #16)

One of the main stories of the Tropical Turf Handicap is that SOUPER SPECTACULAR, Zenyatta's little brother, drew in from the also-eligible list.  A winner in all three of his turf races, Souper Spectacular had to work very hard to win an ordinary 'n2x' race at Aqueduct last time out, must step way up in class, and is stuck on the far outside.  What he does have, besides his pedigree, is upside potential, and I won't be able to sleep well tonight if he knocks me out of a multi-race bet.  I'm using him, but am going elsewhere on top.
As in the My Charmer, there doesn't seem to be a good amount of early speed.  That may play right into the hooves of the veteran, RAHY'S ATTORNEY.  A six-year-old closing in on $2 million in earnings, the old class-master (won the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile in 2008) enters the Tropical Turf off his third career victory in the restricted Bunty Lawless Stakes at Woodbine.  To be fair, Rahy's Attorney had everything his own way in the Bunty Lawless, controlling a glacial pace before scooting home his last quarter in 22.91.  He beat a solid horse in Sand Cove, however, as that one returned to win the restricted Sir Barton on polytrack by 6 3/4 lengths with a 100 Beyer.  Expect Edgar Prado to hustle Rahy's Attorney from his outside post and they should have a good forward position going into the first turn. 
Horses like RAHYSTRADA, BALETTI, and NEVER ON SUNDAY undoubtedly have the talent to win this race, but it's possible that we've already seen their best.  Perhaps under-the-radar horses like TANNERSVILLE and MIDNIGHT MISCHIEF offer more value.
Selections:  Rahy's Attorney, Souper Spectacular, Tannersville

Bayakoa Handicap (Sunday - Hollywood Race 8, Track Cushion, Scratches N/A):

I really like SISTER DAWN stretching out around two turns as the main speed.  In her most recent race, Sister Dawn was embroiled in a pace battle throughout, took multiple challenges on the turn, and kept right on chugging, winning the Playa del Rey by a neck before galloping out with something seemingly to spare.  She's won three of her last four races with the only hiccup coming on dirt at Saratoga, and her breeding is acceptable for longer-distance races.  Her dam, by Strawberry Road, won twice at nine furlongs, and all of her lifetime victories came in routes.  Still lightly-raced, and in very good form, Sister Dawn may be ready for a career-best performance in the Bayakoa if able to relax on the front.
Selections:  Sister Dawn, Sweet August Moon, Wynning Ride

More importantly, who do you like this weekend?  I want to know.

blackstone More than 1 year ago
PGM Thank you for the tip on Hawthorne. I will keep it in mind for sure. I an aware of DiVito's entries as I have him on my watch list, of course. I only play on the weekends, though, so the entries during the week are "for interest only". Thank you for letting me know.
blackstone More than 1 year ago
Hawthorne I mentioned to chicago gerry that I couldn't play Hawthorne at the Cali OTB's ever since Fair Grounds opened up-the system dropped Hawthorne when it added FG. Well, I just checked the schedule for the rest of the month: Woodbine closed, so the OTP System added-Hawthorne. Oh boy. My crush-James DiVito-and I are back in play. Now my last day of the year plan to break even has a genuine chance of working.
PGM More than 1 year ago
Blackstone, You're joining Hawthorne just in time for the deep freeze. HAW tends to favor speed (either it wires or implodes spectacularly) when it's cold (below 30 degrees). Your crush also has an entrant, SHAKE N QUAKE, in Wednesday's opening race, a statebred two-other-than allowance for older female sprinters.
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
CurtV , I watched that race again 5 minutes after it was over. I bet the 6, he wasn't going anywhere but backwards and drifting out to boot, if he didn't fall he still would have blocked or impeded the progress of those others. If you think the 5 or 11 would have won maybe you're right. To me it looked like the 3 had them all measured and he was given an extremly confident ride.
blackstone More than 1 year ago
Dick W Forgot to give you a shout-out for the Oregon Ducks. How about that! Only three point dogs at the moment too. Although the Auburn QB is a beast, if the Giants can win the World Series, the Ducks can surely win the BC Big One. I hope so. Blackseabass I attempted a long response to you, but I don't think it posted-lost in Cyberspace, I think. The jist of it-no need for you to explain anything to me. I enjoy your write-ups, with or without picks. Keep up the terrific work!
Annie More than 1 year ago
SR Vegas, Please tell Keith L, I have his name down. And, that I am very glad he may have found a way to access the blog and may join us. :) MKB Update: 58. Keith L Annie
Annie More than 1 year ago
Whackymacky, Congratulations on HEART BUTTE! That's one thing about the MKB horses. They're the gift that just keeps on giving. LOL Annie
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
Annie Yes, I did see some talk about AP Indy as Zenyatta's first boyfriend. I wonder who SHE would pick if she had a say so :) I'll let Keith L know he is on the MKB owners list. Sedonia PGH = Pretty Gray Horse ( and I use that for any shade of gray from white-silver-gray-or roan ) Continued success with your girl! Mike A ...continue your posts, I'm absorbing alot about turf racing :) I am really enjoying all the subjects this week. Great stuff. 2011 NHC ...a little birdie tells me that we have another Formblogger who made the grade. LIL CHOK ! and this will be the third time . ALAN is his third time...is there some saying about it being a charm ? MIKE D , also qualified...anymore? I'll be here to root you all on. Congratulations! No captcha
Annie More than 1 year ago
rocinante, Please keep in mind that since I am primarily playing So Cal, I am comparing synthetic Beyers to synthetic Beyers, so it works out fine. I handle turf races slightly different, however if comparing the same turf course, they don't seem to be far off. Annie
Annie More than 1 year ago
SR Vegas, I don't know who Z would pick. Probably not Blame. She might refuse to have anything to do with him, especially if he beats her out of HOY. Do horses hold a grudge? LOL Annie
Annie More than 1 year ago
Whackymacky, Good idea! I vote for ZENYATTA. Can't help myself. :) Annie
Annie More than 1 year ago
QUOTE OF THE DAY: "It was a tough morning to say goodbye to 'Big Mama','' said veteran pony boy Freddy Wilson, who was married four times. "I've seen her here for 4-1/2 years. I think I'm going to miss her more than all my wives." :) Annie
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
Mike A, I watched it just 2 times . I don't think the exacta would have changed. I do think the tri /super would have. The 6 was my horse ,he was done before he broke down, he was just going up and down. the others that went down for sure didn't get a chance to unleash whatever run they may have had. Thats what I meant when I said the top5 were not affected by the spill and that probably says something. As far as the other question , I said if the race wasn't marred and if I saw it happen again like that.(54-1 hold 1st or 2nd from the front) that I might jump to the short term conclusion . So there were a couple of big ifs there. Thanks for the info on how the course has been playing. I haven't been paying attention to much this last month. Now I'm back in the game. The winner didn't stop to a walk so I don't think he would have been caught. When there is a chain reaction like that it gets pretty hard to say what would have happened with a lot of confidence though. You know Mike I wasn't advocating BSF's . I was saying this . Whatever way you measure speed . BSF's ,Speed ratings ,etc. One of the top 4 fastest PAPER horses wins the race most times. It doesn't mean a slower horse can't win, it just means he's bucking a stiff trend. I absolutely agree with you that people should verify what someone else tells them . Thats why I always tell people to go to the charts and check the things I tell them. At one time I was a real Chart Dr. I've got boxes and boxes of simulcast weekly. Before they had that I'd clip them from the papers. I used the charts to verify the Known and accepted norms for myself. They were correct but in my opinion were abreviated. A lot of stuff was written about the same very narrow band of info. More imaginitive questions needed to be asked. So I asked the questions and sometimes got a valuable answer. Thats why I know wierd and "Worthless" stuff like 90% of exactas have at least one of the top 3 choices in there. CurtV quickly realized the first day he tried it that when he liked the 4th choice or higher(and it lifted a hoof lol) he hit a lot more ex's by hooking him with that top 3 no matter if you like any of them or not. I knew he would because worthless numbers like 90% are to big for him not to. If he keeps picking longies with an ex run in them then he's gonna be hitting a lot of ex's that he might have missed in the past by walking through the raindrops when his horse had run in him. That 435 ft Blast was impressive. You were a power hitter. I was more a gap hitter , homers were rare for me. The only ones I got were the 315 ft with a low fence in the corner kind. LOL. I got a lot of hit by pitch's though.LOL. A funny story from when I was coaching. Our team was playing against a team that produced a couple of Big Leaguers a bunch of college and minor league guys and they're ranked #1 in the nation by USA Today . In the 1st inning Dimitri Young comes up with 2 out and a guy at 1st. We never played these guys before so we don't have a book on any of them. Its like a 2-2 count and my buddy says "what do you think we should give him." I say "Fork." He calls Fork and Dimitri Young hits a rocket off the little Brass ball on top of a 75ft flagpole out past the 370 in left center. The ball hits the brass ball in like 1 second and it rings out DOOOOOOOOOOOOONG !!! That thing was still ringing when he was back in the dugout. People were coming out of their houses to see who was ringing that bell !!! LOL. Later in the last inning of a 5-5 tie he comes up left - handed with 2 out nobody on. He already has a dong and a 2 RBI double thrown out trying to make it a triple right -handed. The count gets in the middle and my buddy says" what do you think we should give him and DON"T say Fork " LOL. I say "offspeed, area 1 nothing good to hit " he calls a down and in downer and Dimitri golf's it off the ground over the 370 in right center. He swung at a strike out pitch and donged us. We just looked at each other and shook our heads. My buddy says "At least the Flagpole ain't ringing." LOL. That guy was doing that off 2 all-city pitchers making good pitches. I'm only able to laugh about it because our guys hated to lose so much that they gutted out 2 in the bottom of the 7th for the win on 2 consecutive squeeZes.
Curt V. More than 1 year ago
Annie, You know I couldn't resist. I said awhile back, there's only one reason why she went to Lane's End. The best want the best. I like Indyatta. But, male or female, it's gotta be ZLEWSTER..LOL.. That's an almost scary proposition..That's speed & stamina redefined........
Annie More than 1 year ago
Curt V, Zlewster. LOL That figures. Well, apparently, A.P. Indy is Lane's End's "flagship stallion", so you may be right. Of course, a long time ago they were talking about Curlin. Is he at Lane's End too? Annie
Whackymacky More than 1 year ago
Funny thing... Only 2 formblogger's responded to the point of Zenyatta to continue racing in the year of 2011. I think that she should run. Why not? Might be a big fuss over nothing. That is the baby, if she can have one. Playing the little devil here folks, sorry. Annie Of the 58 or so MKB entries, maybe a survey of that group on who will be HOY??? Blame or Zenyatta or someone else. Love to see what people think. It is a quiet Tuesday you know... Whackymacky Out!!!
Laura More than 1 year ago
Annie, I'd rather see Zenyatta with Giant's Causeway as he can led more speed to the resulting foal. Often we see stamina - oriented stallion over a mare with stamina attributes and the foal is just too slow, especially for the shorter distances in the US. Given the slow physical development of the typical AP Indy and how long it took Zenyatta to mature, the foal may not start until the middle of their three year old season. Giant's Causway gets more precocious offspring and physically gets a slightly more compact foal than AP Indy, yet most of his offspring can carry their speed. From a pedigree standpoint, Dynaformer is a very good cross - he and Zenyatta share he same distaff family, although they'd likely wind up with a horse that could run from NY to CA without taking a deep breath and the groom would need a stepladder to curry the horse. (Dynaformer is as tall as Z). Laura
Curt V. More than 1 year ago
BSB, The BCC is not a panacea. It means something, & only something. I never said Zenyatta was not a better horse than Blame, in the grand scheme of things. I mean Heck, it was only a long head. But having said that, she still lost. The year is 365 days long. The HO the YEAR{HOY} is just that. A year. I wouldn't give it to her even if she won by a head. She beat squat before the BCC. Now, that we have dismissed the ludicrous false notion, that she is some sort of Zwengali, w/the finish line, & eschewed the perfect record, had Jerry let the Big Girl loose during the calendar year, this subject would be moot. If she was running on Dirt, like they said she was better on, then maybe she should have gotten out of the Plastic State. These things happen when you race against Grade 1 winners. Your comment about LIS, is another gaffe a minute. She woudn't run a 2:07 on DIRT. As far as last year, I still say you would have needed a telescope to find Rachel. You know, the same one that Big Drama used. Oh! & BTW: I'm goona go out on a limb, & say you did not watch the HG race live. Because if you did{& no replay was allowed}, you would have changed your whole outlook on who should of won. Those 2 speedsters did a 1:17+ split..you would have seen the 5 & 11 flyin' & only 2 lengths back w/the entire stretch to navigate. The 5{horse down} & 11{jockey thrown} were right up the 6 horses' gazook, who was 1 length off the lead. The charts only give the call at designated spots, but the race live tells the whole story. You are too much an astute handicapper to have come to any other conclusion, had you watched it live......... & I'm w/you on the posting of picks...I have to see the odds in a large majority of races, & I refuse to bet on line.......just like Blackstone.......& speaking of Blackstone::::, Mike A. did it to me again....He gave me the last race at Aqueduct on Sunday & I left early, & again I have to back, in order to collect......some problem, Hehn ? If only I had willpower ? Oh Yeah..he gave me the 4th too.........