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When Del Mar officials said earlier this week that their newly-tweaked Polytrack would probably produce faster times this year, they weren't kidding: Wednesday's five opening-day main-track races established three track records -- by two maidens and a $10k claimer -- and went an average of 38 Beyer points faster than the ones on last year's very similar opening-day lineup
*The first, third and fifth races Wednesday established new track records for the 1-mile, 6-furlong and 5 1/2-furlong distances;
*The average raw Beyer Speed Figure for the five Polytrack races was 57 in 2007 and 95 in 2008;
*The average raw time for the two six-furlong races on both cards was 1:13.37 in 2007 and 1:10.57 in 2008;
*I'm only guessing at a variant of -20 for Wednesday's card, but that would be a 38-point difference from last year's +18 -- matching the 38-point difference in raw times and giving both cards nearly identical average BSF's of 75 for the five Poly races. [Update: Chart has been revised to reflect the official BSF variant for the day of -19.]
Faster did not necessarily mean easier: Nobody picked six Wednesday, and there's a $153k carryover into Thursday's Day Two card.
Clown show, I actually agree with much of what you have to say. I truly don't think that anyone wants to dq a horse who shifts a small amount of ground, particularly if the intent of the rider is to try and maintain a somewhat straight course. On the otherhand, when a rider intentially makes a decision to move horses out of the way so that he can have a hole, it is quite naive to defend this action. No one would bet on race if every rider could intentially "make room" whenever they want. You then could start betting "last horse standing." So be careful when you think that we should just let the results stand, that is, that the bull is correct. Part of the allure of horse betting is that it is some what formful. That is, you can read the form and have an idea before hand how the race will be ran. If you allow the bull to run rampant in the china shop, then there truly will be no "form" in how races are run, and I would guess that racing would cease to exist in a short time. Just to shed a little light on myself - the first horse I ever owned was dq'ed the first time he won (he deserved to be, even though he won easily). I bet on many many races a week (around 500) and am generally taken down at least twice a week, and as every gambler thinks, I'm not put up as often as I'm taken down. But this great game would fail to be a great game if we allowed every rider to be a bull. Just as with football, basketball, or whatever popular sport, the only reason they exist is because of rules. Horse racing is no different, the only thing I expect (along with most riders) is consistency, something that some stewards seem to lack (New York truly is bad).
Sat. July 19/08 at Woodbine. Late Pick 3 on races 8,9, and 10. Race 8 (turf) Climb up on JUST RUSHING at 6-1 ML, with top jockey Jimmy Mac. aboard.Trainer and jockey have combined before for nice wins. Race 9 (turf) A nice large field for high payoff if you lean toward #7 NOTTI BISCOTTI at 15-1. A first time starter, he goes for trainer Terry Jordan, who has the best win % on the grounds. Not the most wins, but the best win %. There's a difference. He is related to FREE VACATION who won on one Sunday, when I was staying at a motel near WO, on my way to Fredericton. I noticed the horse in the paper, and drove to WO, and played her $50 to win. Then left to return to motel, and wife.Attfield trained. Price was over $30.00. So, FREE VACATION gave me a free vacation. That's why I like NOTTI. Good blood lines. Race 10-- INDIAN JOY could take the night cap. Has been training for top trainer CASSE on lawn, with this race being eye-balled.Will be less than 8-1 ML, but not by much.More activity will be taken on this race on SAT. so I will work a super in here on Sat. (check around noon.)Husbands finds his way home to Mark Casse, and this duo never lays down--always trying. WARNING!! If Race 9 comes off the turf, no bets on Pick 3. We'll try to do some damage in Race 10 on POLY.
Flip, Sorry to hear about your mom. I will not see you in next little while at the OTB. Saving up for a trip to the Spa. I`ll see ya when I see ya. Good luck.
You can't steal the bettors money. Do you know how hard successful handicappers work on doping out these races? Some people dedicate their entire lives to betting on races. Brain busting stuff till the wee hours of the morning and for what? To have some politically appointed guy who doesn't really know the game take your money away because he has the napoleon complex and wants to show how important he is in this game? There's no serious handicapper on this planet that won't be able to mentally withstand a DQ that is cut and dried. Your horse causes some major incident where its clearly his fault everyone understands that it has to come down, its a situation that leaves the judges no wiggle room, its something that a blind man can see. But, when you cut and slice this stuff into little pieces and really nitpick , its horrible stuff. Lets face it, if you really wanted to, as an NFL official, you could call a penalty on every single play. You could find SOMETHING that you can penalize if your life depended on it. You can take your borderline case to the league offices and say "See, there is the holding". and the fans and media and everyone else concerned will say,. "i guess you are right, his hand might have been on the jersey" But, that breaks the spirit of competition and causes the sane person to ask, "what in sam hill is going on here". Are we saying that horses have to run in a straight line like they are being tested for a DWI? That's not going to happen. Horses will shift ground on occasion, even if its an inch to either side. When you have a little man or woman sitting on the back of a thousand pound racehorse running at speeds in excess of 35 mph , you can't expect that horse to stay in an EXACT straight path, its just not possible. Well, to that you will say, "so, if a horse moves over an inch and costs another horse the race, or costs another horse a board position, should we just leave the result alone even though that one inch compromised the other horse?" My answer is yes. Its just tough racing luck for the horse in behind because the lead horse has the leeway to move an inch or two, or even a foot to either side just in the normal course of racing. He's ALLOWED to not have to maintain an exact straight line because that's part of horse racing. If you can't move an inch to either side we may as well just break horses from the gate individually and time them and after each horse hits the line we pay off the fastest runner. Horses drift a little bit in the stretch all the time.....they are tired at that point, they are straining for every inch and every stride. Watch a few headons and you'll see horses weaving in the lane like drunken sailors, very few of them maintain an EXACT straight line which means that NOT maintaining an exact straight line is part of the game. the standard is way too high and impossible to live up to. If you went out to dinner with one of the stewards and he asked you this question, how would you answer it. He asks. "i have a dilemma and i need your input. I can disqualify every runner who breathes on another runner with a zero tolerance policy, a policy that maintains that every horse needs to maintain an EXACT straight line or else. OR i can 'let them play' and pay off the best horse and only in really serious cases take a runner down. When i say serious cases, i mean that i'd probably only be taking down one runner a month, if that. I'm going to let the results be won on the racetrack and not won in the booth for the most part" What would you say? if you are a serious bettor who has a financial stake on at least a few races per day, you'd say "lets have the results decided on the track" Is there anyone here who wants the results decided in the booth? doesn't that break the spirit of competition? Why even HAVE competition if we are going to punish the bull while walking thru the china shop?
Chisox, The stewards are punishing the betting public everyday with their poor decisions. That is the whole point of my argument.
Please, no more harness posts. It's bad enough my DRF did not have a couple of thoroughbred tracks that I was interested in today but it had Meadowlands entries.
Bill, Great post on the Codeword race. You are right on the money. Also, I find the "don't punish the bettors" argument incredibly naive. These [people] advocate keeping a horse up but reprimanding the jockey if there is a foul committed. If horse A and horse B are battling down the stretch and horse A wins by a nose but clearly interfered with horse B wouldn't the people who bet horse B be getting punished if they let the results stand but just reprimanded the jockey?.
Flipper Rumour has it that this blog is grooming me to guest with Mr. Asmussen, and we hope to tell you how we win races. Sign me up!!!! I enjoy reading your post and how you play the ponies.I also like how you play your trainer angles,key races,jockeys,etc you give valuable insight and you also show your wagering angle.Good stuff. My OTB does not offer Woodbine or i would string along with you on some of your plays. Do not know if you play evangeline or not but there is a Steve Asmussen horse entry in the sixth race a maiden claimer with a ML of 30-1 (Royaleka).I have not looked at the PP. I know some bombs come in at this track so it might be worth a look. I am heading out to the otb tomorrow so I will be checking back in on the blogs here. Also Flipper good luck with your Mom I know that must be tough.Also you still fishing up there??I used to go to lakeside, ohio when i was kid every summer and we would always take a boat out and head to the canadien waters and do some fishing. Last time i went was six years ago with my kids.My son was catching fish two at a time,just incredible fishing there. Roc
Flipper D - Hang in there. Did anyone see the shape of the Belmont turf course today? It looked like a chewed up high school football field after a long season. I think they're getting out of Denver just in time.
I love the idea of a Breeders Cup race at a mile and a half. I can't wait to see it.