06/22/2010 10:38AM

Moving Day, Questions

Email

Just completed the big move uptown to our new offices in Manhattan.  Finally have unpacked all of the goodies I've amassed throughout my racing travels.

1 Super Derby commemorative glass from 2006
1 AQHA coffee mug
1 Kentucky Derby 130 commemorative glass
1 Gallagher's Steakhouse Triple Crown commemorative glass
1 John Velazquez bobblehead
1 Todd Pletcher bobblehead
1 Randy Meier bobblehead
1 Joe Bravo bobblehead
1 Picture of The Green Monkey complete with chimpanzee pasted on The Green Monkey's face
1 Picture of Richard Dutrow Jr. mockingly laughing at someone
1 Empty 4/5 quart bottle of Jim Beam commemorating the All-American Futurity at Ruidoso Downs
16 baseball caps (Saratoga, Delaware Park, Go Baby Go, Daily Racing Form, Claiming Crown 2008, Saratoga logo, Bustin Stones, Claiming Crown 2009, TVG, Breeders' Cup 2003, Emerald Downs, Turf Paradise, TOBA, TVG (black), Breeders' Cup, Super Derby)

And of course, my most prized possession.  A "book" given to me by my late great-uncle.  The title is "How to Clean Up at the Racetrack." 

Inside the hollowed-out pages are a broom and a shovel.
 
***

Dan, could you post the lifetime PP for Triple Wow, the dam of Alywow.  She ran at Woodbine and Greenwood in the late 80s and was one of my favorites of all time.  Thanks!!
Medic

Here's what I have for Triple Wow:

Download Triple Wow

***

SO WHO RAN THE BEST RACE OVER THE WEEKEND????
jrzingg

If  you're asking about last week's "Performance of the Week" column in National Simulcast Weekly, then see the link below:

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=113914&subs=2&arc=1

***

What do the FormBloggers think of giving racehorses a "confidence booster"?  I'm thinking specifically of GIANT OAK, and maybe GENERAL QUARTERS, too.  Nice horses, probably not elite, and it seems to me if you believe that finding an easy spot for a horse will pay off with future wins in bigger races, both would seem to be in need of a confidence booster after Saturday's action.  Then again, there's the D. Wayne Lukas approach, which is to keep firing until the horse finally steals one or goes down trying.  Lukas has been getting away with it for decades now.  Is the "confidence building" race an anthropomorphism?  Or do you handicap "by the numbers", figuring that good horses try as hard as they can pretty much every time?  As I think about it, I think you have to consider what having a winning horse does to the HUMAN contingent around him or her.  Everybody working for the stable is going to have that little extra spring in the step, and maybe the horse feeds off of THAT -- to what extent, is, of course, also open to debate.  I'm interested in your opinions, and I'd like to ask Dan to weigh in on this one as well.  Thanks.
alanh

It's a very interesting question and one that probably doesn't have an absolute answer.  Some horses that constantly get their heads handed to them may need a "confidence boost" (other handicappers may simply call it a drop in class).  Whether that confidence boost leads to bigger and better things down the road is debatable.  Let's take a look at Aikenite's past performances:

Download Aikenite

Will Aikenite, down the road, be better off thanks to the recent allowance win as his "confidence" could now conceivably be at an all-time high?  Can we expect this improved confidence to lead to better performances when he is inevitably stepped back up into graded stakes competition?  Will this newfound confidence overcome his penchant for coming up short in tougher races?  Will it overcome his simply not being good enough to win those heats?

Perhaps some horses "feel" better after winning races and go on streaks, but how does the handicapper ferret out these horses to make money?  Perhaps this is where physical handicapping can be utilized.  Someone willing to take diligent records (and spend a ton of time at the paddock) may see the horse in question acting differently following a confidence-building win.  Perhaps the horse is more alert or his coat is brighter.  But does that have to do with a confidence boost or is it simply a matter of a horse naturally coming into peak form and fitness?  

If one believes that all horses have their proper "class" level, then they may not believe in confidence-boosting wins.  Aikenite won the other day because he was facing inferior competition.  He may come up short again when facing tougher opposition, confident or not.

I don't factor "confidence" into my handicapping, but I can't fault those that do.  It's just something that seems very hard to prove.

***

Dan, you mentioned a few months back the possibility of coming to Arlington. Any chance you might haul your golf clubs with you? My buddy and I would love to beat the little white pill with you in the morning and hit the polytrack in the afternoon. Golf's on us.
jim tully

Jim, I appreciate the offer but my schedule is going to be a bit tight this weekend.  I'm flying into Chicago Friday afternoon, will probably put the finishing touches on my handicapping at the hotel that evening, and then will do a seminar/book signing Saturday morning.  After that, I'll hang out at the track with fellow FormBloggers and racing fans, and will have to be on the plane Sunday. 
If you're at the track this weekend, come on by.  It'd be nice to meet you. 
This September, I'm looking forward to coming to Arlington for a long weekend to meet up with some of the FormBloggers.  Maybe then?

***

Dan or anyone familiar with English racing (maybe Tinky?)
Can anyone explain the following payoffs from Ascot today (Goldikova's race)?
CSF : £4.79
Tricast : £115.87
Tote Win : £2.50
Tote Place : £1.20, £1.50, £9.60
Tote Swinger : £1.50 (10-6), £1.50 (10-6), £23.40 (6-4), £25.60 (10-4)
Tote Exacta (10-6) : £5.30
Tote Trifecta (10-6-4) : £190.20
More specifically; what does CSF mean and what's the payoff mean?
What is the Tricast?
Why are there 3 payoffs for Tote Place?
I don't really want to ask what a Tote Swinger is... but I would like to know (without too much confusion).
I understand the Exacta and Trifecta but don't understand why Goldikova went off at 11/8 and only paid 2.50 pounds.  What does that (2.50)equate to in US money?

Zenyatta = $357,328.23 per start.  Dan... who is next on the list for most money earned per start for USA or UK or Dubai?
Jeff T.

Here's what I found out about those bets:

Tote Swinger:  The bet, which is available on races of six or more runners, asks players to pick two horses to finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd in any order. The bet then declares three dividends, 1st and 2nd, 1st and 3rd and 2nd and 3rd.

The CSF is short for "Computer Straight Forecast."  It's a wager where you pick two selections in the same event in the order in which you think they will come 1st and 2nd. The payout is made according to a fixed scale computed by a complicated formula on the basis, primarily, of the starting price of the horses concerned in the forecast. Basically the bigger the odds the bigger CSF dividend that is paid.  Still, the CSF bet generally pays less than the Tote Exacta (as it did in the Goldikova race). 

A tricast is a trifecta bet. 

A Tote Place bet is a wager on one horse that may come in second, third, or fourth depending on field size.  There must be a minimum of five horses in the field for the bet to be allowed.  First and second place is paid out for fields of five, six, or seven. 
First, second, and third place are paid out for fields between 8-15 in handicaps and fields of eight and higher in non-handicaps.  
First, second, third, and fourth place is paid out for fields of 16 and greater.

As for Goldikova's paltry win payout, I wonder if that's per one pound bet, thus five pounds (or 3-2 odds) for a 2 pound wager. 

If you mean active horses with highest average earnings per start, I would venture to guess that Gloria de Campeao ($370,342) is the highest followed by Zenyatta, Dar Re Mi ($269,875), Goldikova ($263,469) and Well Armed ($215,825).  There's a very good chance I'm missing someone, however. 

***

Dan, could you Hot Tub Time Machine up a chart for that race? Or weigh in with a possible explanation please?
Mathieu

I'm pretty sure the Dave's Friend past performance line is wrong on the pp's that were downloaded.  I'm going to go with the 1-5 odds that was listed in Champions instead of the 87-1.

***

Dan,
could you please provide us with Squirtle Squirt's PPs? Thanks in advance.
tencentcielo

Here they are:

Download Squirtle Squirt

***

Dan can you post the pp's for Quality Road please and maybe Budroyale and Lava Man
blackseabass

Here they are:

Download Quality Road

Download LavaRun

***

Indian Blessing was a pretty special filly.  She was a GI winner at 2, 3, & 4, and she earned a nose short of $3M.
Dan, could you please post her PPs, and could you please tell me what you think of her.....
Thanks so much for all you do.
Paseana

Here are her past performances. 

Download Indian Blessing

I was an Indian Blessing fan.  She maintained a level of excellence from ages 2-4, was versatile enough to win at distances ranging from 5 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles, and had wonderful tactical speed.  At two, I wondered if she would be a one-dimensional speedball but she really showed a new side of herself by rating off the lead in the Grade 1 Prioress.  She finished with a flurry in the mud to win by open lengths at Belmont that day and followed it up with a dominant performance in the Grade 1 Test.  I loved her race in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint as she did all the dirty work up front only to fall a length shy to the quality rallier Ventura.


***

Are than any other American horses that plan on running at Royal Ascot?
I heard Noble's Promise was a respectable fifth on Day One
Alfredo

Kinsale King finished third in the Group 1 Golden Jubilee Stakes while Metropolitan Man ran ninth in the Windsor Castle Stakes.  Casper's Touch finished third in the Chesham Stakes and Tiz My Time ran third in the Group 3 Albany Stakes. 

***

Where is Out of the Gate? I love that program!
Caroline

Caroline, thanks for watching the show.  We're on a bit of a hiatus right now.  Hopefully, we'll be back soon.

***

Dan,
Have you heard any buzz about the 3yr old colt Grand Grift, by Ghostzapper/Secret Status?
He breezed a half in 48 and change today.
By the way, I will be making my maiden voyage to the Spa from St. Louis for the Travers.  Any tips for places to go for adult off-track activities?
Thanks in advance!!
EzGoer

Grand Gift is a half-brother to the talented, but brittle, Dunkirk.  He was purchased for $350,000 at the 2008 Keeneland September Yearling Sale by Mark Stanley.  I'm not 100% sure, but I believe Grand Gift is trained by Dale Romans.  His workout on June 14 (5 furlongs - 1:00.60 out of the gate) matched up with Southern Danger, a three-year-old  trained by Romans that came back five days later to win an entry-level allowance at Churchill Downs with an 87 Beyer.  He's one to watch. 
As for adult off-track activities at the Spa, you're asking the wrong guy.  After the day's racing, I'm back in front of the computer doing "Spa Babies" for DRF.com.

***

HG entry (are corrections allowed?)
#6 Idedaboss, should hit the Super usually in the pace and stuck around a couple of times. Blinkers come off 4 yr old first time.
#1 Surprie Claim,  has put up some numbers - best were on sloppy tracks, front end speed shortens up.
#2 Table Rock, morning line choice, firster enters with a "bullet"  (1 of 37) work.
#11 Runningonbroadway, familiar outside post position, has speed to clear, less distance to cover, fresh after extended time away.
Taking a shot at the Tri - bet.
$1 tri wheel "1,2,6 -w- 1,2,6,11 -w- all" (= $90) $1 tri wheel "11 -w- 1,2 -w- 1,2,6,8,9" (= $8)  $1 tri wheel "11 -w- 6 -w- 1,2" (= $2)
Rob Anderson

Congrats to Rob for finishing first in last week's HG exercise.  He selects Race 3 from Woodbine for this week's event.  Here are the past performances:

Download HG191

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."   Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.  Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.  In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.  One entry per person please.  I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.  The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are.  I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

Back tomorrow with the HG play and last week's top Beyers.

Best,

Dan