Mike Watchmaker

While there has been a lot of discussion over what many feel will be a fast pace in the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Oaks seems like it has an even better chance for a hot, potentially destructive pace scenario. An analysis of the 16 fillies listed by Churchill Downs as candidates for the Oaks through Tuesday suggests that they can almost be broken into two distinct groups in terms of predominant running style demonstrated to date. Let’s take a look: Speed/Front Runners

There has already been a lot of talk that the addition of Trinniberg to the Kentucky Derby field has pretty much ruined the chances of Bodemeister and Hansen. I think that’s a serious overreaction.

The next-to-last Derby Watch of the year will be posted today (Wednesday), and for the first time all year, it will have a new Derby favorite.

If I had a vested interest in the Kentucky Derby or Churchill Downs, I would have let out a huge sigh of relief after Bodemeister obliterated his field in the Arkansas Derby.

There are only two truly major Kentucky Derby preps left, they being Saturday’s Blue Grass at Keeneland and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. And if one of these races is won by a horse who runs fast enough to earn a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure, it would mark only the third time this year such a winning Beyer was assigned to a next-to-last round, or final round Derby prep. Here’s a list of this year’s major final, or next-to-last round Derby preps, followed by the winning Beyer: