Mike Watchmaker

On Jan. 23, I posted some thoughts in this space on how I was skeptical of Soldat's big double-digit allowance win in relatively fast final time two days earlier at Gulfstream Park because that score came over the sort of sloppy track that often artificially skews good or poor performances.

One of the great things about Beyer Speed Figures is they are made by humans. As such, when one of the Beyer folks, when in the process of making figs, comes across the inevitable aberrational number (this happens more often than people who don’t make speed figures might realize), he can apply the sort of reason and common sense that computers can’t. And the result of that is far fewer obviously outrageously inaccurate figures than one would find in computer generated numbers.

The total win pool of pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which concluded Sunday at 6 pm, Eastern, was $480,375. As win pools go, this isn’t a huge one. But it is enough to see what the general betting public thinks about some of the more prominent contenders for the Kentucky Derby.

The odds-on favorites in Saturday’s three graded, two-turn Kentucky Derby preps weren’t completely shut out, but that’s really no consolation. Let’s be honest about it: The only way you could have been satisfied with Saturday’s three Derby preps were if you own or bet on the winners.

I can't say for certain that Joey P. will win Saturday's second race at Gulfstream. There are a few other horses in that race who can also run. But the fact that Joey P. is not merely competitive in this optional claimer/allowance, but also has the best last race Beyer Figure in the field is extremely cool, and worthy of note. Here's why: