06/16/2009 4:15PM

Miss Isella, Beyers, post position stats, etc.

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Miss Isella is Butch Lehr's worst nightmare.  The track super at Churchill Downs needs to rush out and buy a new can of paint for the inside rail whenever the gray daughter of Silver Charm takes to the track.  Although Churchill Downs is making money hand over fist with its racetrack empire, we're still in the midst of a recession, and paint ain't cheap.  The newest honorary member of the Flying Wallendas (her jockey, Calvin Borel, is already in) did it again in Saturday's Fleur de Lis Handicap.  There wasn't a hole on the inside turning for home in the Fleur de Lis, but there was a sliver of light, and Borel once again threw caution to the wind.  Miss Isella checked the rail like Scott Stevens going after some hapless New York Ranger, bounced off her befuddled opposition, took the lead, and dug in determinedly to win the Fleur de Lis in much the same fashion as she ended the undefeated streak of One Caroline in the Louisville Distaff on Kentucky Oaks day.
One has to wonder if Borel has a deathwish.  While he has received kudos and plaudits from just about everyone in the racing industry for the courageous ground-saving rides that have defined his career, the move with Miss Isella looked downright scary.  One wrong step, and jockey and filly go down.  You can't argue with results, however.  Since May 1,  Borel is 43-164 (26%) with a $3.19 return on investment.  In stakes races, he is 6-17 (35%) with a Mine That Bird-aided $8.83 ROI.  Forget about graded stakes.  Cal is 6-15 (40%) with a $10.01 ROI.  Borel probably wouldn't be the first pick in any racing fan's fantasy stable.  Most would side with the Terrell Owens superstar like a Garrett Gomez or a Rafael Bejarano or a John Velazquez.  But Borel is a Moose Johnston-type jockey, a hard-nosed professional that isn't afraid to do the dirty work.
My goodness, what has happened to the handicap division?  Can someone page Curlin, and have him return to the track?  Einstein, as he is wont to do, had an extremely tough trip in the Stephen Foster Handicap, but he's better suited to the plucky underdog role than as a true division leader.  Commentator's big win over statebreds on Friday didn't change anyone's opinion about him.  He's fast with class, but it's doubtful whether Zito will even try him ten furlongs over Pro-Ride in the Breeders' Cup.  Albertus Maximus and Tiago are either injured or MIA.  Macho Again is inconsistent, Well Armed must prove the Dubai World Cup wasn't a bias-induced fluke, and It's a Bird has plenty of other issues to worry about right now.  If ever this was a season for a three-year-old to dominate their elders, it's this one.  Of course, the Europeans are probably licking their chops, as they patiently await another Breeders' Cup invasion.  And then there's Zenyatta, waiting for a new world to conquer.  Here's hoping she gets the opportunity.

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Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's stakes races:

*Poker (Bel):  Sailor's Cap (J. Toner/A. Garcia) - 106
*Desert Stormer (Hol):  Coco Belle (J. Sadler/M. Smith) - 103
*U Can Do It (Crc):  Marina Ballerina (K. Ziadie/P. Lopez) - 103
*Californian (Hol):  Informed (D. O'Neill/T. Baze) - 101
*Fleur de Lis (CD):  Miss Isella (I. Wilkes/C. Borel) - 101
*Monmouth (Mth):  Presious Passion (M. Hartmann/E. Trujillo) - 101
*Ponche (Crc):  How's Your Halo (B. Prichard/M. Cruz) - 100

*Stephen Foster (CD):  Macho Again (D. Stewart/R. Albarado) - 99
*Skip Away (Mth):  Chirac (J. Cibelli/E. Trujillo) - 98
*Northern Dancer (CD):  Successful Dan (C. Lopresti/J. Leparoux) - 98
*Kashatreya (Bel):  Commentator (N. Zito/J. Velazquez) - 97
*Round Table (Hol):  Obrigato - Fr (N. Drysdale/J. Rosario) - 97
*Ogden Phipps (Bel):  Seattle Smooth (A. Dutrow/R. Dominguez) - 97
*Unbridled (Crc):  You Luckie Mann (M. Wolfson/J. Bridgmohan) - 97
*Blazing Sword (Crc):  Mambo Meister (P. Gleaves/M. Cruz) - 96
*Zadracarta (WO):  Saskawea (S. Attard/J. Jones) - 96
*Journal (NP):  Zuri Mwana (G. Amthor/S. Beauregard) - 95
*Blue Sparkler (Mth):  Fearless Leader (M. Lerman/D. Centeno) - 94
*Top Corsage (LaD):  Hotlantic (D. Keen/J. Figueroa) - 94
*Carter McGregor Jr. Memorial (LS):  Gold Coyote (W. Calhoun/B. Walker Jr.) - 92
*Daniel Van Clief (Cnl):  Pleasant Strike (T. Pletcher/R. Homeister Jr.) - 92
*Jefferson Cup (CD):  Florentino - Jpn (K. McLaughlin/A. Garcia) - 91
*Golden Bear (Ind):  Furthest Land (M. Maker/O. Mojica) - 91
*Whata Summer (Bel):  Matchless Orinda (H. Jerkens/C. Velasquez) - 91

*Barksdale (LaD):  Classy Deelites (D. Moran Sr./P. Valenzuela) - 89
*Lost in the Fog (GG):  Smiling Tiger (J. Bonde/M. Baze) - 88
*Free Spirits (Rui):  Happy Humor (J. Arnett/K. Tohill) - 87
*Regret (CD):  Keertana (T. Proctor/R. Albarado) - 87
*Victoria (WO):  Olredlgetcha (G. De Gannes/E. Ramsammy) - 87
*Jostle (Pha):  Trusty Temper (R. Werner/J. Shepherd) - 87
*Possibly Perfect (AP):  Cherokee Queen (H. Motion/J. Campbell) - 86
*Cyclones (PrM):  Red Hot N Gold (K. Von Hemel/T. Thompson) - 85
*Cinderella (Hol):  Well Deserved (D. Hofmans/J. Rosario) - 85
*Sydney Gendelman Memorial (RD):  Catlaunch (I. Vazquez/H. Rosario Jr.) - 84
*Bold Ruckus (WO) - Me the Sea and G T (S. Owens/T. Pizarro) - 82
*Susan B. Anthony (FL):  Me the Sea and G T (S. Owens/T. Pizarro) - 82
*Susan B. Anthony (FL):  Bob's Dylan (M. Ferraro/J. Davila Jr.) - 80
*Acclaim (EvD):  Break Up (B. Brinkman/G. Melancon) - 80
*Leave Me Alone (Crc):  First Passage (M. Wolfson/J. Bridgmohan) - 80
*Wild Rose (NP):  Jasper's Valentine (J. Meyaard/R. Walcott) - 80
*Irish Day (EmD):  Ladyledue (B. Jenne/R. Frazier) - 80

*Magic City Classic (RD):  Ikan (R. Nunley/W. Hollick) - 78
*John W. Rooney Memorial (Del):  No Use Denying (H. Motion/J. Rocco Jr.) - 78
*Salute (EvD):  Seven Seventythree (S. Asmussen/G. Melancon) - 78
*CTHS Sales (Hst):  Gotta Find Bubba (S. Henson/F. Fuentes) - 76
*Matchmaker (Lnn):  Dazzling Seville (C. Legrande/L. Ranilla) - 75
*Ellen's Lucky Star (Ind):  Trust N Seven (M. Lauer/L. Goncalves) - 75
*Ballade (WO):  Authenicat (J. Carroll/R. Landry) - 73
*President's Cup (Lnn):  Heso (R. Riggs/C. Fackler) - 73
*Snack (Ind): Hoosier Kingdom (R. Herrell/O. Mojica) - 73
*La Verendrye (AsD):  Preservata (C. Willson/T. Nelson) - 71
*Hawkeyes (PrM):  L D's Shes Special (L. Dunbar/T. Doocy) - 70

*CTHS Sales (Hst):  Notis Her (B. Heads/R. Hamel) - 66
*Molly Brown (ArP):  Derby Cat (S. Davis/D. Frazier) - 64
*Lansing (Pnl):  Juggle (R. Gorham/J. Skerrett) - 61

*Altitude Sports Race of the Day (ArP):  Notimetobemad (B. Stivers/V. Scantling) - 37

Here are the lifetime past performances for the highest and lowest Beyer Speed Figures from last week's stakes races:

Download SailorMad


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Another quick point, Dunkirk is such a beautiful animal but good lord how many times do we have to see that pedigree line have injuries before we say "well something is not right here?".
desertrailrat

It does seem that the Unbridled's Song's are as unsound as they are brilliant, and that creates a dilemma for buyers.  Not for breeders, but for buyers at yearling and juvenile sales.  Most breeders aren't overly concerned with producing unsound horses.  As long as they sell, those breeders won't have trouble sleeping at night.  And the Unbridled's Song babies sell.  Really, really well.  Buyers have to always wonder what they're getting with an Unbridled's Song runner.  Will they squeeze enough quality starts out of them so they can become viable options at stud? 
Besides Dunkirk (non-displaced condylar fracture left hind cannon bone), we have Midshipman (soft tissue left foreleg), One Caroline (undisclosed), and Silent Roar (surgery for right front ankle chip) as progeny of Unbridled's Song currently on our Disabled List.  Remember that Old Fashioned was retired earlier in the season with a non-displaced slab fracture to his right knee, and Eight Belles had to be euthanized on the racetrack after last year's Kentucky Derby due to compound fractures in both forelegs.
I wonder if the great home-breeders of the golden age of racing (the Vanderbilts, Paul Mellon, etc.) would have sent their mares to Unbridled's Song given the various ailments of the progeny.  Of course, that era was when we bred horses to race instead of to sell.

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I'd also wonder if a confirmed rabbit has ever won a race of any significance in modern times?
Terry F

Whenever anyone asks me about this topic, I always go back in time to the 2001 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot.  The QE II is usually the race that determines Europe's champion miler, but the whole division was thrown into turmoil that season when Godolphin's pacemaker, Summoner, stole the whole kit-and-kaboodle at 33-1 odds under Richard Hills.  Summoner only won one out of his next 15 races, and that was a listed event at Abu Dhabi three years later.  It doesn't happen very often, but once in a long while, a rabbit steals a weak renewal of a major stakes race.

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Does anyone know if Shake the Bank ever runs on his own in a well meant race?
Turn Back The Alarm

As you can see from the below past performances, Shake the Bank was put into a few spots on his own, but he didn't win a race after his prime job became Better Talk Now's pacemaker.

Download Shake the Bank

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Dan,
Are we no longer Formblog???
And now you're bumped to #3 on the DRF blog list???
Who's your agent???

In my mind, we're always going to be "Blue Boxers" and "Blue Thongs" here on "FormBlog" whether the marketing geniuses at DRF realize it or not.
As for being "bumped" down the pecking order, I'm told that we're listed in alphabetical name order although I wouldn't be surprised if it's based on salary  : )
I talked to my agent about the issue, but she's rather unhappy about the game since Flying Private ruined her undefeated handicapping streak in the Preakness.  Back to fingerpainting for Olivia!

Anyway, I second CM's comments on the situation (9:45 am on June 12)


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...yes, that's right, I took Nowhere to Hide away ("name" 3YO?). Apparently, he's pretty good at hiding because he's never been on my radar.
C

I think Annie meant Runaway and Hide, a two-year-old that went 3-3 last year including wins in the Kentucky Breeders' Cup at Churchill and the Saratoga Special.  He had knee surgery after the Spa race, and is now at stud.  

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Remember that name, TRUEST LEGEND, because he is going to be a good one.
Dan,
Can you tell me what BSF they assigned for his run?
Steve T

Truest Legend earned a whopping 99 Beyer Speed Figure for his big win on Saturday.  While he is fast as heck, I wonder how he'll react to pressure on the front end.  In his maiden win two back, Truest Legend started flagging his tail once Victor went to the stick.  No whip was necessary on Saturday as he simply ran his opponents into the ground. 

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Dan-With the out of the money finish of Indian Blessing, it made me think of a 1973 race when the filly Marian Bender was defeated at 1-9 and I believe the three horses that finished in the money all paid  more than $100 to show. Can you print the chart on that race?
Howard Dreizen

Unfortunately, our database doesn't go back that far so I can't post the chart.  Marian Bender, a three-year-old filly by Bold Monarch, won four sprint stakes races in 1973.

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Dan the Man:  Zan the Man checking in here with my suggestion for HG this week.  Race # 8 at Hollywood Park on Thursday - a full field (14 is considered full, right?) of cheap claimers on the Cushion.
Zan the Man

Congrats to Zan the Man for his excellent play in last week's HandiGambling exercise.  Here are the early past performances for this week's race:

Download HandiGambling

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I have always assumed that the time attached to someone's post was EDT.  Therefore, when  tencentcielo, Steve T. or Slew post something, I presume for them, it's 3 hours earlier than it says on the post, as I believe they're West Coasters. 
Is this correct, Dan?
knm

Yep, the time attached to a post is East Coast time.

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dan,as the saratoga meet is getting closer:) could you please scrunch some #"s from last years meet
 post position winning %
   main track routes
   """" """"  sprints
   turf course routes
   """" """""  sprints
$BILL


Here they are:

Main Track Routes

1.  11-45  (24%)
2.  4-45   (9%)
3.  2-45   (4%)
4.  6-45   (13%)
5.  11-45  (24%)
6.  6-42   (14%)
7.  2-31   (6%)
8.  2-13   (15%)
9.  0-7
10. 1-4    (25%)
11. 0-2
12. 0-1

Main Track Sprints

1.  23-173 (13%)
2.  18-173 (10%)
3.  22-173 (13%)
4.  22-173 (13%)
5.  28-170 (16%)
6.  20-158 (13%)
7.  8-123  (7%)
8.  17-93  (18%)
9.  9-51   (18%)
10. 3-26   (12%)
11. 2-12   (17%)
12. 1-6    (17%)
13. 0-2
14. 0-1


Turf Routes

1.  11-98 (11%)
2.  15-98 (15%)
3.  7-98  (7%)
4.  13-98 (13%)
5.  13-98 (13%)
6.  7-96  (7%)
7.  9-91  (10%)
8.  10-87 (11%)
9.  7-72  (10%)
10. 5-51  (10%)
11. 2-17  (12%)
12. 1-11  (9%)

Turf Sprints

1.  3-36 (8%)
2.  2-36 (6%)
3.  3-36 (8%)
4.  6-36 (17%)
5.  4-36 (11%)
6.  6-35 (17%)
7.  2-35 (6%)
8.  4-35 (11%)
9.  3-30 (10%)
10. 1-21 (5%)
11. 1-10 (10%)
12. 1-6  (17%)

Be aware that there are two turf courses at Saratoga, and the grass stats are for both courses combined.

***

Folks, it's safe to say there's been some negativity among the posters over the last couple of days so let's all take a step back and remember why our community is regarded as one of the bright lights on our website.  We have always shown patience and respect as well as superb knowledge and insight.  Let's call the recent issues water under the bridge and move on.  I, for one, am befuddled by Wednesday's Race of the Day at Belmont, and would appreciate any help.  Past performances are on the homepage.

Best always,

Dan

Alan More than 1 year ago
All Hail Yeats!! ROTD (HOL7) #6 Nericon King (ML:20/1): Aussie shipper for Leonard Powell and we see the quality of Aussie turf sprinters from Royal Ascot. He gets FTLasix and Powell won last fall with a NZ-shipper off a several month layoff at 32/1 odds. Worth a stab if price remains right. #8 Sky Cape (ML:5/1): Gets 8# less and an extra furlong more from last effort...in which he had no chance after poor start. #1 Get Funky (NL:5/2): 2ndoff layoff for last year's winner. May have lost a step but gets GoGo. $100 WAGER: $30 WP #6 $10 EX #6/1,8 $10 EX #1,8/6 HG138: "THE WELCOME BACK" (HOL8) Multiple horses returning to the track off long layoffs. The favorite #7 All Money No Love will be tough to beat if ready (and his works suggest he is), but let's look for a longer shot. #2 Bass River (ML:15/1): also drops in off a layoff but his trainer doesn't have the same returning stats as Ellis. However, this consistent gelding's one win was in a similar circumstance. #13 I'm Bulletproof (ML:12/1): returns from layoff and also loses Rosario to the AE 2nd-fav who made the field, but has demonstrated closing ability and won off a long layoff in the past. #15 Senior Afortunado (ML:3/1): get into field with slight cutback for Rosario/Hollendorfer. Another closer who will appreciate any pace up front. WAGER: Will KEY these 3 in wagers with #6,7,10 and 12 from the remainder of this large field. Also one 'saver' in event #7 fires off his layoff. $0.20SUPER #2,13,15/2,13,15/2,6,7,10,12,13,15/2,6,7,10,12,13,15 = $24 $0.20SUPER #2,13,15/2,6,7,10,12,13,15/2,13,15/2,6,7,10,12,13,15 = $24 $0.20SUPER #2,13,15/2,6,7,10,12,13,15/2,6,7,10,12,13,15/2,13,15 = $24 $3EXBX #2,13,15 = $18 $3EX #7/2,13,15 = $9 $1 CHEAP TIP = $1 $100 TOTAL Good luck to all HandiGamblers today!!
J-PA More than 1 year ago
HG 137 Like primarily layoff horses in this one. Here goes: .50 Super 3,7,15/3,7,15/3,7,8,15/all ($66, assumes 14 run) $2 Tri 3,7,15/3,7,15/3,7,8,15 ($24) $10 win #8, plus any additional $ should less than 14 run and super bet is less than $66. Good luck to all J-PA
Kyri More than 1 year ago
Oh, and since people are also talking about the ROTD, I thought I would add my not very creative commentary. I like the class layoff horses, Get Funky and Delta Storm, and Backbackbackgone, who is 8-1 ML, but I don't think will go off at anything near that. BBBG didn't run well last but drops, and I see no reason why he can't compete here. Cherokee Heaven scratched, several are questionable from a class standpoint, and Sky Cape and Hewitts would have to rebound from their current form. Couple of OK sort of-prices earlier on the card. In the 1st, the Ghostzapper, Ghost Shadow, is being totally dismissed despite a little speed and fade last time and Joel Rosario; the trainer's stats are also OK though I have never heard of him; in the 2nd, 8-1 ML first time starter Moral Hazard faces a field of career maidens and horses stepping up from MCL; in the 5th, I like several, but Play Nine stands out as 12-1 ML despite fitting the condition perfectly. I will try to beat Haemildaeme, the current favorite, on the grounds that she will get no pace to run at and her connections are not having their best meet. Since I now have .02 in my account I will not be betting these, however...
Kyri More than 1 year ago
HG: Get out the dartboard!! I can't believe Senor Afortunado, the 15, drew into this field. I think he looks like the winner. I also think Thundrfromdownundr or however it's spelled -- reminds me of that 80's song, "where women glow and men chunder" -- the 3 horse, anyway, he's lightly raced, takes a big drop, connections pretty cold this meet but there are no Takeover Targets in this one. All Money No Love, the 7, was meant to be a better horse than this and had a pretty good record before the layoff. He could win, or run last. 5/2 is not a bargain, however. Don't Forget Mug just won a race. 25 MCL, but he won a race. 12-1 on him is pretty nice. He's the 9. I'm Bulletproof also just won 25 MCL, but it was quite a while ago; still, he could get in the mix. 12-1, the 13. The difference in M/L odds between him and the 7 is interesting. They both have strong connections, they both have strong layoff percentages, they both are working slowly. how much is that class difference/the 7's decent performance vs. winners really going to matter after so long on the shelf? we'll see, I guess. Just for fun, I'm going to try to actually hit the .10 super in here with the $1.22 that really is in my TVG account. To do this, I have to assume that neither layoff horse will finish better than fourth. Here is my $1.20 bet: 3,9,15/3,9,15/3,9,15/3,7,9,13,15 ONLINE $1.20 For the purposes of the contest, I'll add a fictional $25 WP on Senor Afortunado (total $50)and $20 WP on I'm Bulletproof (total $40), grand total $91.20 with some left over for beer.
p ensign More than 1 year ago
re: race of day and hg both are interesting races - initial thoughts: feeling bad for J Val - loses mount on GII Get Funky, keeps mount on firesale All Money No Love, no love is right. like someone above, have always liked Hewitts - but I'm going to stay with him at a decent price today. Like two horse in finale, but will have trouble using jockeys Pedroza and Arambula... okay, then, back on the morrow
cayman01 More than 1 year ago
False Favorites: 1: Any horse that was claimed out of a barn with a less than stellar reputation. I pretty much won't touch a horse that's been claimed from the likes of Dutrow, Mullins and Mitchell for example..... 2: A turf horse who's running on soft ground and prefers firm turf. 3: Layoff horses with poor records coming off layoffs. 4: Horses with no works between races or inconsistent work pattern between races. 5: Horses who like a fast track and it's sloppy. ------------------------- On to Handigambling 137. Hey Billy Joe Jim Bob hand me that shotgun! Really, I've looked at this race for awhile and am coming up blank. I wouldn't touch this race with a twenty foot pole, but since Dan is paying I will bring out the shotgun and scatter some buckshot: .10 super 2,3,6,7,13,15/2,3,6,7,13,15/2,3,6,7,13,14,15/1,2,3,6,7,12,13,14,15 $90 $2 QUI 2,13 7,13 6,7 2,15 6,15 Basically, i'm guessing that one of the layoff horses will fire, but which one? I have no clue. I then sprinkled in a few others that looked to have some talent at this level. ------------------------- PGM School/ROTD Billy Joe! Pull up a chair, we got us a BBQ! Gonna be some gooooooooood eatin'! Lots of money will go up in smoke from betting on the outside speedsters (6,7,and 9). A big question will be is how close will Get Funky, Delta Storm and Wild Diplomat will be to the pace. They could get too close to the sun and cook too or lay back and get first run.I think they'll lay back. $10 EX Box 1,2,4 And then again SKY CAPE will probably be running best of all late in the race. $7 EX 8/1,2,4 $6 EX 1,2,4/8
meadowlake59 More than 1 year ago
HG 137: A) Several possible winners coming back off long vacations. B) Cheap, early speed in abundance. C) Most of these are either confirmed non-winners or still possible of eventual improvement. A group: #3-Thunderfrmdownunder(ML/8-1)—After a year off he won his 3-yo debut for Mulhall and the second place finisher flattered by coming back with a win. In too tough last time, this should be a level that is more appropriate. Plenty of early speed to challenge is the major concern. #13-I’m Bulletproof(ML/12-1)—Hard to argue with last race—after 13 months he wins smartly and now gets wheeled back after “only” less than 11 months. Never been this low but if Jack has him ready he should pay nicely with an off-the-pace trip that figures to be a strategic advantage. #2-Bass River(ML/15-1)—Like the one above, has won off a 13 month layoff and BSFs would seem to be more than adequate—the 9 months since being claimed is either discouraging or encouraging depending on how you thing Metz has brought him along. Works look good and stalking style should prove advantageous. B group: #7-All Money No Love(ML/5-2)—Ellis’ ability with runners off the bench well-noted but ml not attractive and works steady but unspectacular. Class drop a bit severe but Valdivia stays on so there must be some confidence. Certainly merits respect but these type races demand value. #15-Senor Afortunado(ML/3-1)—Bridesmaid last two with honest fractions, scratch draws this one in and with enough early pace could pick up the pieces but appears to avoid getting his picture taken (10/1-3-2). Shortened distance seems curious. Exotic play underneath? #6-Magna Cum Laude(ML/8-1)—See above (21/13-4) but with a bit more natural speed. Hard to ignore possibility but prefer him for minor award. #9-Don’t Forget Muq(ML/12-1)—Big “Ah ha” moment last out at 22-1—won’t be quite that this time—but the move up to winners is not that huge at this level and the fact he is relatively lightly-raced is a plus. Since that bullet 5/8 seems to be a different horse—the best of the second tier? Wager construction will make the difference—hope I do this part right. $4 EX Box 3,13,2,9 = $48 $ .20 cent SPR Wheel 3,13,2/3,13,2,9,7/3,13,2,9,7,15,6/3,13,2,9,7,15,6 = $48 $4 WIN --#3 Good Luck and Good Racing
billg More than 1 year ago
HANDI 138 All I can say is what a race! But, heh its worth wagering $100 mythical ducats. Here goes. My key horse is the #12. I llike the outside post, jockey change, and the 4-5 record at the distance plus the 20/1 line. THE BET: $40 WIN #12 $20 EX. BOX 3-12 $5 EX. 12/2,7,15 $1 TRI 7/12/2,3,9,14,15 The last is a saver in case Ellis has this horse ready like he usually does. The #3 is dropping from starter company, #9 may have figured it out on cushion, #2 has solid numbers, #14 is 7-12 ITM at 6f, and the #15 will be closing again. Back for the Race of theDay later.
blackstone More than 1 year ago
HG137 I really struggle with NW2lifetime-my losing streak must be at five years. But here goes-I think the 7 is a classic false favorite-poor race, long layoff, huge class drop. No thanks, in spite of the connections. Tencentcielo might be right on Bulletproof, but the works are not inspiring. Instead, I'll go for the race ready #3-Thunder and hope that it both gets the lead from the 6(Magna) and holds on. I'll also box him with #13 hoping that Carava has him ready in spite of the slow"outs". The bet: $60 win on #3-Thunderfrmdownundr $20 exacta box 3 and 13 Good luck to all. ,
Van Savant More than 1 year ago
HandiGambling 138: SENOR AFORTUNADO (#15) will be happy breaking from the far outside, and jockey Rosario should be able to let the many speed types in here burn up the backstretch. He should be sitting pretty as the field turns for home. STRENGTH (#14) has actually raced pretty well at a cut below this level, and has good tactical speed to stay in contact with this field as they sort things out down the backstretch. He has a shot in here. MAGNA CUM LAUDE (IRE) is another that will benefit from much speed in here, and he has raced well at this level. LORD IN COMMAND is blinkers off, and should get a ground-saving trip. He can hit the board with the right setup. My plays: $3 Exacta box – 1,6,14,15 ($36) $.50 Superfecta box – 1,6,14,15 ($12) $50 to Win on the 15 ($50) $2 to Show on the 1 ($2) That’s it