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Lukas on the Trail
By Dan Illman
Wayne Lukas lost two decent 3-year-olds when Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint winner HIGHTAIL (injured, retired) and TITLETOWN FIVE (injured) suffered setbacks on the Kentucky Derby trail.
Good thing The Coach's "second string" can run a little bit.
OXBOW, a $250,000 yearling, ran away and hid from his competition in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. A son of Breeders' Cup Classic winner Awesome Again out of unraced Tizamazing (a million dollar yearling and full sister to two-time Breeders' Cup Classic winner Tiznow), Oxbow is a full brother to Awesome Patriot, a Bob Baffert-trained runner that took the Alydar Stakes going nine furlongs over cushion track at Betfair Hollywood Park with a 97 Beyer. In the LeComte, Oxbow quickly assumed command and drew away to win by 11 1/2 lengths with a career-best 91 Beyer. Not bad for a horse that was vanned off the track after running only two jumps in his career debut at Saratoga. The Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on February 23 is a possible next landing spot for Oxbow.
At Oaklawn, Lukas sent out WILL TAKE CHARGE to win the Smarty Jones Stakes at one mile. A $425,000 yearling by Unbridled's Song, Will Take Charge is a half-brother to Florida Derby hero Take Charge Indy out of three-time Grade 1 winner Take Charge Lady. Will Take Charge finished fifth in his career debut at the Spa and then was beaten 25 1/2 lengths by Uncaptured in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club after winning his maiden over the Keeneland polytrack. He's obviously improved, but still must move forward off the 86 Beyer he earned in the Smarty Jones.
*MAJESTIC HUSSAR, seventh in the Grade 1 Hopeful behind champion Shanghai Bobby, may have put himself back on the trail following a gate-to-wire score in the slop at Gulfstream. Majestic Hussar earned a 95 Beyer for the win, but it must be noted that both of his lifetime tallies have come over wet tracks and he has yet to route. By Majestic Warrior, Majestic Hussar is kin to the decent turf runners Danse Grecque, Joes Blazing Aaron and Tiz Sardonic Joe. The horse to watch out of Majestic Hussar's victory may be runner-up PALACE MALICE, a Todd Pletcher-trained colt that was sidelined after his maiden win at Saratoga due to sore shins.
*LET EM SHINE blitzed a field of maidens at Santa Anita by 7 1/2 lengths with a 91 Beyer, but trainer Adam Kitchingman may resist the temptation to sprint out this extremely fast son of Songandaprayer. He looks like a very promising sprint prospect.
*RON THE GREEK, stymied by a speed-favoring track in the Breeders' Cup Classic, relished the sloppy going in the nine-furlong Sunshine Millions Classic at Gulfstream. Ron the Greek got a nice pace setup as I'M STEPPIN' IT UP, FORT LOUDON and MUCHO MACHO MAN sparred through splits of 23.19 and 46.59. Ron the Greek powered past them all on the turn and ran off with complete authority in the stretch. He is now likely to defend his crown in the Big Cap at Santa Anita. Breeders' Cup Classic runner-up Mucho Macho Man was eased after jockey Mike Smith believed something was amiss. Tests taken after the race showed no physical problems and it's possible the horse simply hated the wet surface.
*INFRATTINI made it four in a row with a win in the Louisiana Handicap at Fair Grounds. The versatile son of Include had previously broken the track record in a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs on November 22. He has won around one and two turns, is undefeated from two starts on synthetic tracks, and certainly likes dirt. Runner-up MARK VALESKI, making his first start since undergoing surgery to remove a chip from his left front knee, ran gamely for second and is one to follow.
*It was a big weekend for the Parbhoo family. Not only was TRINNIBERG honored as champion sprinter of 2012 at the Eclipse Awards dinner, but OFF THE JAK took the Sunshine Millions Sprint with a career-best performance.
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures (1/14/13 - 1/20/13):
1. RON THE GREEK - 115 - Sunshine Millions Classic - 1 1/8 Miles - Gulfstream
2. OFF THE JAK - 105 - Sunshine Millions Sprint - 6 Furlongs - Gulfstream
3. INFRATTINI - 102 - Louisiana Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles - Fair Grounds
3. SAHARA SKY - 102 - Palos Verdes Stakes (G2) - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
5. SERVICE FOR TEN - 99 - OC 32k/N3X -N - 1 Mile - Laurel
6. BRIGAND - 98 - Turnofthecentury Stakes - 1 Mile (inner track) - Aqueduct
7. GOLD ELEMENT - 97 - Spirit of Texas Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Sam Houston
7. MORE CHOCOLATE - 97 - La Canada Stakes (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles - Santa Anita
7. TEAKS NORTH - 97 - Sunshine Millions Turf - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
10. GREAT MILLS - 96 - OC 80k/C -N - About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
11. CONSORTIUM - 95 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs (inner track) - Aqueduct
11. MAJESTIC HUSSAR - 95 - OC 75k/N1X -N - 7 Furlongs - Gulfstream
11. SUCCESSFUL SONG - 95 - Sunshine Millions Distaff - 1 1/8 Miles - Gulfstream
14. GOLDEN MYSTERY - 94 - Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Sprint - Gulfstream
14. N. F.'S DESTINY - 94 - OC 25k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs (inner track) - Aqueduct
14. TRIUMPH AND SONG - 94 - OC 17k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
17. KAJIWARA - 93 - Clm 15000 - 6 Furlongs - Sam Houston
17. LUCKYSDREAM - 93 - Alw 51760N1X - 6 Furlongs - Parx
19. LAST GUNFIGHTER - 92 - Evening Attire Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (inner track) - Aqueduct
19. NEVADA - 92 - Md c-(25-22.5) - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Gulfstream
19. PLEA AGREEMENT - 92 - OC15k/SAL10k - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Sunland
19. SPRING HILL FARM - 92 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 7 Furlongs - Gulfstream
19. SOVEREIGN DEFAULT - 92 - Clm c-(30-25)B - 1 Mile (inner track) - Aqueduct
24, ALLEY OOP OOP - 91 - Alw 29100NC - 1 Mile (Turf) - Tampa Bay
24. HIGH MYSTERY - 91 - Wcl c-5000 - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Oaklawn
24. HUMBLE SMARTY - 91 - OC 32k/N2X - 6 Furlongs - Oaklawn
24. LET EM SHINE - 91 - Md Sp Wt 56k - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
24. LOTTA LOVIN - 91 - Likely Exchange Stakes - 1 Mile (polytrack) - Turfway
24. OXBOW - 91 - Lecomte Stakes (G3) - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Fair Grounds
24. PLEASEANDTHANKYOU - 91 - OC c-50k/N2X - 6 Furlongs (inner track) - Aqueduct
24. SUMMER SUNSET - 91 - OC 50k/N2X -N - 1 Mile 70 Yards (inner track) - Aqueduct
RON THE GREEK's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
SOVEREIGN DEFAULT was claimed for $30,000 by trainer Linda Rice from trainer Rick Violette.
NEVADA was claimed for $25,000 by trainer Joe Orseno from trainer Todd Pletcher.
HIGH MYSTERY was claimed for $5,000 by trainer J R Caldwell from trainer Kenny Smith.
PLEASEANDTHANKYOU was claimed for $50,000 by trainer Bruce Levine from trainer Randi Persaud.
Dan, How can I find out about injuries to any horse I can bet in derby futures in vegas? Is there a list of horses with when they are expected back? a list for who is nominated for the derby?
The early nominees for the Triple Crown series close on January 26. Late nominations can be entered until March 23. A list of nominees should come out early next week.
As for injuries, that information may be a bit more difficult to obtain. Laura has kept up with the latest news and posted this recently:
Here is the KY Derby Odds to Win: http://www.horseracingnation.com/news/2013_Kentucky_Derby_Future_Odds_Released_123
I posted the injury report on Dan's last update, but here it is again (from allhorseracing.com):
Joha: Wade Wacker's and Derk Ball's Bluegrass Equine Bloodstock homebred developed a minor injury and was removed from the Keeneland January horses of all ages sale, where he would have been offered as a racing prospect. The connections will target a summer-fall campaign for the son of Johar.
Bogart: Trainer Jonathan Sheppard's talented Keeneland maiden winner is sidelined with a hairline cannon bone fracture and will not be nominated to the Triple Crown.
Archwarrior: Todd Pletcher's trainee is getting some time off in Kentucky and will not be pointed to the Derby trail.
Hightail: The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint champ has been retired due to a fractured sesamoid suffered during a recent workout at OP.
Gulfport: Dale Romans confirmed on 1/5 that his promising prospect suffered an injury and is off the Kentucky Derby trail.
Darwin: Nashua S. 4 th -place finisher is getting a break and will be pointed to a return during the BEL or SAR meets.
Jocosity: Flashy SAR maiden winner was sidelined by a chip and will not be pointed for the Kentucky Derby trail.
Micromanage: Todd Pletcher's charge was sent to Ocala following his last-place finish in the Remsen S. and could return in April.
Van Neumann : Pulpit son was euthanized 12/7 following an accident at the gate before GP race 4.
The Drifter : Dual stakes winner took a bad step and was pulled up as the favorite in RP's Clever Trevor Stakes 11/. Walked off.
Double McTwist : Bull Page S. champ was euthanized after breaking down on the WO main track during late October work.
Warren's Rocky : California Cup Juvenile S. also-ran jumped a stricken rival then later fell himself and sustained a fatal injury at BHP 11/23.
Norumbega : Impressive SAR maiden winner is recovering from pastern injury and won't be pushed to return too quickly by trainer Shug McGaughey.
Titletown Five : D. Wayne Lukas trainee is out 60-90 days after suffering a knee chip.
If you have any questions on a specific horse not listed above, please post them to the blog and I'll do my best to find out what I can.
I have plane tickets to Gulfstream for the convention. You are in trouble, again. Do you know what Beyer fig was assigned to INTEGRITY's MSW win last Thursday at Gulfstream. He's a Hard Spun and showed some grit in the lane.
INTEGRITY, a $320,000 son of stakes-winning sprinter Generosity (by Unbridled's Song), received a solid 85 Beyer Speed Figure in his career debut for trainer Chad Brown.
hey dan anychance you can post the lifetime pps for current ny campaigner flat bold? I saw him on track this summer and he looked the part and he seems to be tailing off since....would love to see the history on this one...keep up the fantastic work...always a fan
FLAT BOLD's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Congrats to Mike O. for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise.
PENN NATIONAL RICK'S WEEKLY SCORESHEET IS AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
Let's go with Friday's ninth race at Gulfstream for this week's contest.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.
PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKER AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY AND/OR ANALYSIS.
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATE THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL).
Best of luck to all.
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HG Gulfstream Park Race 9 1/25/13 $12.00 Exacta 1 w 3.8 = $24.00 $10.00 Exacta 3 w 1.4.10 = $30.00 $10.00 Exacta 8 w 1.4 10 = $30.00 $ 0.10 Superf. 3 w 1.4.10 w 126.96.36.199.8 w 188.8.131.52.8.6.7 = $6.00 $ 0.10 Superf. 3 w 1.2.8 w 184.108.40.206.4 w 220.127.116.11.4.6.7 = $6.00 $ 0.10 Superf. 1 w 3.8 w 18.104.22.168 w 22.214.171.124.10 = $1.80 $ 0.10 Superf. 1 w 3.8 w 126.96.36.199 w 188.8.131.52.10 = $1.80 Total $99.60 Good luck to all, it's all for fun. Cornwallboy
Hello All! HGGPTURF: $50 Tri 1-3-2, 1-2-3. LOVE the one off the layoff. Good luck all! Mike M
$8 tri key: 3/2,8,4,1. I think 3 runs down Gaelico and Van Citra, also $2 supers 3/2/8/4 and 3/2/8/1 edb
HGGPTURF 1/26/2013 $10 TRI KEY 3/1-2-4 $5 TRI 2/1-3-4 $2 TRI KEY 3/1-4-6-8-10/2
HGGPTURF 20 dollar exacta 3/4,8,10 for 60 10 dollar exacta 1,4,8,10/3 for 40 Bornstar75
HG GP Turf BIG BLUE SPIRIT - don't like the fact that he's going to face winners for the first time and shows no work activity since 12/24. His only dud was on the dirt, and has shown turf form. I would use him in the third slot if I was a trifecta player, but I think I will pass this time. GAELICO - don't like that he was the beaten favorite last time out against some of these same horses. Not sure the 1/2 furlong cutback is going to help that much. Pass. RAPACIOUS - win contender. Showing consistent form since moving to the turf. Showed good turn of foot to win first out against winners. SHAKESPEARE'S BREW - moves to the rainmaker Chad Brown. Already showed good form on turf. Obvious win contender. IN THE BEAT - Two tries on turf at 5f, and neither as bad as they look. His dirt efforts have been so-so, but his best ones have come at 7f and I think that this guy will like the added distance today. I will use him as my main selection, as he should be a good value play. JAMIE'S BOY - only try on turf was against MD40k horses and failed miserably. Ambitiously placed here. Pass. VAN CITRA - I hate these 7.5f type races. It is hard for me to determine if there will be sufficient pace, as it really isn't a sprint nor a route. Anyways, if this is a paceless affair, this guy could stick around for a piece. His recent turf tries have been competitive. Saez has been coming into his own this meet. I'll use him underneath. LEMON VIEW - doesn't fit here. Worked through N3L conditions in the claiming ranks. Probably just keeping him warm for the trip back up north. The play: IN THE BEAT is probably going to be the only horse I like in the field that will represent excellent value. I won't get cute, and will play him to win. I'll finish the play with a small exacta and trifecta to round out the C-note. $80 WIN 6 $2 exacta 3,4,6/3,4,6,8 $1 trifecta 6/3,4/3,4 baltimore_brian
HG Gulfstream turf $33 WPS #8 $1to tip the barista Good luck to all! Ned Daly
Once again the NHC Championship is underway and there is no leaderboard; just Sham Wow Vince. It's a good thing that DRF takes this contest seriously...
HG Gulstream. $100.00 win #4.
HG If, like the majority here, you like Rapacious to win this and the inside posts-- the wagering strategy is--Go Big (and) or Go Home (without the forms) :) $100 tri-- 3 / 2 / 4 Good Luck jimi