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Lottsa questions, some picks
Who was that horse who freaked in the mud a few years back, a 127?, (and what stake was it in?), I think he would have been three when Peace Rules was three (not sure)? I don't think he ever lost in the mud thereafter (they went hunting for it). I can't even remember the trainer, I think Bridgmahon was on him, but that's a stab. The trainer was good, obscurely good. Respected type. Oh god......
Are you thinking of Midway Road? He was trained by Neil Howard, ridden by Robby Albarado, and won the Ben Ali at Keeneland in 2004 over a sloppy track by 11 1/4 with a 123 Beyer. Evening Attire finished second that day, by the way.
What is up with the Spa Babies? When I first looked at yesterday's installment it contained an analysis of the feature race for 2 yo fillies. However, when I went back later in the day, the Spa Babies report only went through your analysis of Race #5. Why did the last part get cut off?
It happened again today, and I have to admit I'm getting a bit ticked off. When I originally post the file, it appears in its entirety, but something happens (no one can explain it to me yet), and parts are missing throughout the day. I'll keep checking during the day tomorrow to see if anything disappears. Please bear with me.
Hi, this is by far the most informative blog on horseracing by both Dan and the posters. I just got into this sport a few years ago, and I have developed my own style of handicapping. I have been looking at past big races to see how I would have played them, so I was wondering if you could post the pp's for the 2001 and 2002 Kentucky Derbys. Thanks!
Welcome to the Blue Boxers! To check the PP's for every KY Derby, go here: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/history
About 1/2 down the middle of the page is where you can enter in the year you want to view.
Speaking about Desert Party, lets not get too excited here. He beat three competitors, in a very pedestrian time and over the slop. He showed profesionalism, but I don't expect a particularly high Beyer for his effort.
Desert Party earned a 78 Beyer. The Beyer par going into this race (according to the American Racing Manual) was a 95.56, and Ready's Image earned a 105 Beyer in the 2007 running.
Some quick and dirty picks for Saturday:
Diana: Dyanforce, Wait a While, Bit of Whimsy
Vanderbilt: Bustin Stones, Abraaj, Sammarco
Go for Wand: Ginger Punch, Spring Waltz, Moon Catcher
Whitney: Solar Flare, Commentator, Grasshopper
Will try to post some thoughts on Der Bingle and the Jim Dandy tomorrow.
Our posters have had some great insights and selections, as usual, over the last few days. Lemme know who you like this weekend.
blog on earnings in the Internet sites and move any other information
I'm always into discussions on anything organic, so this read made me feel at home. I'll bookmark the site and subscribe to the feed!
Vic, another goood post, just wanted to say - not to worry - I have been attending 'anger management' group therapy. What's funny is that it's moderated by a guy who's about 6-8, 350+, with lots of racetrack stories (and the scars to match) - smile. Listen, 30 more pounds, and I might have to get my old bones on a horse and show these jocks how to move a pile. In other words, catch me if you can. Remember the old days - you had the specialty jocks, the Roberto Gonzales' of the racing world, - it was like adding blinkers. Boom - pop the gate and they'd be out there wingin'it on a horse who hadn't been to the lead anywhere in the last 10 lines. * Dan, that was an informative analysis of the terrible state that horseracing finds itself relative to synthetics. I had no idea we were at this point! Let's say that synthetics are ignored by the traditionalists - how does that change California? Wasn't this voted on here in a general election? I'm not sure, I'm just asking (anyone). How would it be rescinded? - it is law in California (that I know). In fact, I think even Pleasanton would have to switch if it gets more dates. Maybe even Santa Rosa (where Casual Lies broke his maiden!). * Speaking of Santa Rosa, I am taking my mother on Friday (she loved her first foray into the on-track horseracing experience - she had never been to a horse race before!!!). So, if anyone has any picks for the card, please share (I won't have a lot of time - but I can do a visual inspection on-track!). Hey, Dan, any chance I could get you to do a quick take on Friday's "feature" race? Thanks. -slew
If I had only an $8 bankroll I will start playing doubles, then if nothing happens, will go to the WP bet. I have never bet a horse to show. In Puerto Rico we had only WP, and I have carried that tradition here at California. Regarding Julio Garcia, I can tell you that it is true that Garcia was not that aggresive on his ride, but the winner was by far the best horse of the race. He had to drift about 5W on the stretch and anyway he was running the fastest to the wire. In Puerto Rico Julio was questioned a lot for his judgement, and I am one who has criticized him a lot in the past, but in this one I have to give him the pass.
Uncle Steve, LOL!! That tort money buys lots of fun things: baseball teams, horses.... They've got the right jockey for the horse - Dominguez is having an O's-like performance (27-1-4-3) at the Spa so far this season!! Dan, The 120 Beyer given to Commentator in the Whitney makes no sense. The most obvious discrepancy versus the earlier 9f races on the card is dismissed as the track slowing/split variant (here we go again...another Breeders' Cup 2007 track slowing!) Even if you "Drink the Koolaid" with that line of reasoning, how do you explain 2nd-place finisher Student Council (at age six!!) improving his best Beyer by 10 points in the race (Best prior Beyer = 102 -> Whitney Beyer = 112)?? So...in his 29th race, at age six, Student Council fires a 112 Beyer, all of a sudden??? Is there any historical precedent for this dramatic improvement in a speed figure for a six year old stakes horse??? I guess the Spa really has medicinal qualities in that mineral spring water - The Fountain Of Youth for Older Horses!!!
Laura; A nice "situation" that you have put us in; however, when I held my account with YouBet (I loved it), I had fallen down to that level before. I always made my wagers much more carefully than when I played with cash. At one point, I was down to my last $4.60, when I cratfed a $1 Exacta box ( that paid something like $12.60), and a .$10 Superfecta box that paid somewhere around $21.78)! I fell out of my chair when I read the results, and knew that I had achieved equilibrium again (my bankroll was back in the $25-$50 range, which, after taking profit, was where I wanted it). Eventually, it became un-manageable for me, as a small-time bettor. I packed it in on a $200-plus score, and haven't thought about small-time bankrolls since (through Internet wagering). But that is not to say that are not worth merit. Actually, those type of wagers do compell the handicapper (me) to be much more thoughtfull in crafting a wager, and managing the bankroll thereafter. It' s a tough game, no? Great question, Laura. Van Savant
Yikes Did I address to Annie in my post, I meant Laura....8$ bet. SR Vegas
C, Big Brown is 0-1 in handling adversity so far.... Ummmm. I was pretty impressed w/ the unheard of Fla Derby victory from the 12 hole...... the just about unheard of Ky Derby victory from the 20 post.....and also the Preakness victory by overcoming some tactical race-riding from fellow jocks (as did Ginger Punch- Sat.) to win by a landslide. His 0-1 was in the Belmont, so okay -- he had a bad day, or maybe he shouldn't have even entered the race if history wasn't on the line due to some minor physical/health issues. He is an awful tough horse to knock, as is Commentator and Curlin. And don't forget BB is only 3, and may develop as Curlin did, to be an even stronger force by the end of the year when it's time to take on his elders. I just hope we get a chance at some point to see all three of them face off in the near future.
When I was in high school and cutting class to go to Narragansett and Lincoln Downs, we seldom had more than $10 to play and we played mostly win tickets and hope to hit one or two to build our bank roll. Now, if I only had $8 and had to grow it, I probably would focus on $1 exacta boxes for four races that I felt more confident with and let it roll. Of course, if I win on the first play, half my bank roll comes into play. If I fail, I still had a great day trying to find the right bet. If I win, I can buy myself a good lunch. Who knows? Follow up question is: Today, what is the size of the bet that makes your heart speed up. It happens to me when I make a $50 win bet on odds greater than 4-1 at the track. There's something about going to the $50 window that excites me. It's much better than going to the machine to make that bet.
HEY GUYS/GALS, I'm back after a crazy first week at the Spaaaaaaa. So far, we are 1-1, and the win wasn't even w/ Levine as the listed trainer. We've had 3 other scratches (maybe my dad has plans of going for a perfect meet). Well as you know, we had no bigger scratch than blog favorite Bustin Stones. If you noticed I was pretty quiet all week about his status. He actually had a couple other issues before the 'stone bruise', but nothing major- he was in jeopardy all week of the running. It would have been a great chance to score at our hometrack on Sat. (especially w/ the defection of Fabulous Strike beforehand). Bruce said the x-rays came back fine, and we could resume training by the end of the week. We have no race in mind right now, besides a distant goal of the Vosburgh, and BC Sprint. We missed a grand opportunity over the weekend, but that's racing, as bummed out as my old man is- the health of the horse is most important (After all- he got some great publicity out of it ;-) I really have a hard time believing (I know I'm biased) that we would not have took the Vanderbilt by open lengths. Abraaj was in a full out drive at the 3/8ths pole, and I am sure we could have withstood the early heat from Hushion's maiden breaker and Black Seventeen (who needs to go back to the drawing board) - to have enough to hold off Abraaj and First Defence(who has no heart). If there is one thing we have, it is heart. I feel BS will be stronger cutting back to 6 panels after winning two graded stakes @ 7f (although not the strongest, I know- but who cares, they can't take them away from us). The final time of 110& change was very suspect for that caliber of horses, and was well within our grasp. And I do not feel a 109 bsf for Abraaj was justified. I just can't see a track changing that much before there was any change in weather at that point. Bottom line, we missed an ample chance to be graded winners @ Saratoga. It is tough to get over. And I do apologize for all this woulda, shoulda, coulda talk above - But it's hard not to do at this point, when we were that close.