12/02/2008 3:29PM

Lots of questions, pp requests

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Dan, Everybody,
Would you all mind taking a look at a race for me and tell me what you think - race 6 at Hollywood yesterday. Watch the 4 Spanish Bunny (who I absolutely unloaded on). She is well positioned coming into the stretch, and then aggressively starts to move into contention and then stalls - and it certainly didn't look like it was a distance issue - was it an issue with passing horses? Like maybe she needs blinkers? I am absolutely perplexed as to why she didn't win. Now, take a look at Race 3, another UH, Mensa Heat, did exactly the same thing. I would REALLY like others opinions on these two, cause I can;t explain it - both looked for all the world like they were going to win and then... Thanks
Steve T.

I just don't think Spanish Bunny was very good.  She seemed a bit eager coming out of the gate, but soon was in a nice spot just off the leaders.  Perhaps blinkers would allow her to settle down better, but she seemed to be trying her best in the lane, and was simply outkicked. 
Mensa Heat ran okay, but she had the run of the rails turning for home, and wasn't good enough.  She was overmatched in the Generous in her next start, and might be one to watch as she returns to her proper level.  Maybe blinkers would wake her up a bit, but I just wasn't wowed by either performance.  It's possible they both need lighter competition.

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Dan
This is an article from the Courier Journal about CDI possibly interested in buying TVG.  Would this be a good thing or a bad thing if it happened?  It might help alleviate some of the disarray and confusion surrounding ADWs, but it might also give Churchill too much control and consolidated power over the airwaves.

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20081123/BUSINESS/811230470/1037/SPORTS08
Also, can anyone answer this for me...why doesn't twinspires.com merge with xpressbet.com?  Some sort of anti-trust thing?  Seems to me that Churchill has the money to spend (based on the numbers released during the Q3 conference call) and Magna needs all the revenue it can get.
g or g

If CDI purchased TVG, you probably would have a lot of happy account-wagering holders as the partnership would likely show Churchill, Fair Grounds, Calder, and Arlington along with the TVG tracks (NYRA, etc). 
Whether this would affect TVG's existing deals with Magna tracks (and whether Stronach would pull out) is another story.  Would Gulfstream (for example) pull out due to TVG and CDI becoming one and the same?  I'm not a fan of racetracks controlling media outlets, but if you could get more eyeballs and money into the game via wagering and television, then that's a good thing overall for the industry.  I just think CD would be in a great position of power to control source fees, and might drive tracks away that won't match their price. 
Considering the state of the economy combined with the state of the Magna stock, I think CDI is doing the right thing by waiting out xpressbet.  Why spend the money now to help out the competition when it's quite possible that Magna will eventually throw in the towel, and CDI could get everything for a vastly-reduced price?

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Tinky, Blue, Dan, Everybody,
I would really like to explore the whole idea about where progeny fall out in relationship to their dam and sire for surface and distance, and what a realistic predictive analysis of their performance should be. Since I know Unusual Heat extremely well, would you mind using him for our analysis? He is a California sire versus the "name" sires, but is no slouch either. So figure he is not going to get the RTR's of the world, but will get some nice CalBred mares.
Dan,
Would you mind posting the lifetime PP's for Unusual Heat, his sire Nureyev and his dam Rossard?
Steve T
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Here's what I have.  Past performances for Nureyev aren't complete, and I'm not sure if Rossard's pp's are complete as well.  I'm not sure if distance, class, or surface factors from the sire and dam alone are conclusive predictors as to a foal's chances at success at said distance, class, or surface.  That's why the old saying is "breed the best to the best, and hope for the best."  Conformation, soundness, and class of the entire female family are only three of the many other factors that affect breeding.   

Download UnusualHeatFam.pdf

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dan, you cant hit anything, can you
horses

Mom, I told you not to bother me at work.

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Dan, can you post Dixieland Band's past performances?
Please?
Paseana80

Download dixieland_band.pdf

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CAN YOU PLEASE GIVE AN UPDATE ON WANDERIN BOY?
rsdcpa

Rsdcpa,
According to the NTRA article I read on the race, Wanderin Boy, was put down ( RIP, big boy ).  He apparently shattered his left front.
Craig

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Does anyone know if War Pass was retired?
vince

War Pass will stand his first season at stud next year at Lane's End Farm in Kentucky for a $30,000 fee.

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Why do people insist on talking Derby contenders in November? It is too early, for Godsakes.
jim tully

It is too early, but it's just so much fun trying to find a diamond in the rough.  Here are the Derby Future Book Odds from Lucky's Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas:

Download DerbyFutures.pdf

Old Fashioned is the chalk at 12-1 followed by Vineyard Haven and Midshipman at 20-1.

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Dan,
Has any filly or mare ever been awarded a 120 Beyer? In researching it I could find two who received 119's (Inside Information in the 95 BC Distaff and Hidden Lake in the 1997 Hempstead) but no 120's.
Steve T

Xtra Heat earned a 120 for her dominating win in the Sweet 'n' Sassy Stakes at Delaware in 2001

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Dan,can you print Wanderin' Boys PP's.He was a neat old horse that had to overcome a lot before he even made it to the races
never_bend

Download Wanderin.pdf

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Back with some more questions, and the HandiGambling pick in tomorrow's blog.

Take care,

Dan

Annie More than 1 year ago
Handigambling 112: Although I never play New York in the winter (I do like Belmont in the Fall), I'll give it a shot. In looking at the eligibility requirements for this race, it appears that the only way Rizzi's Twist can be eligible for this is if in for a claiming price because she has won two races other than MD, Cl or starter. The fact that she has been off since July doesn't necessarily mean there is anything wrong with her since she had run steadily for a whole year and deserved a break. Therefore, the Levine entry needs to be in my Tri. I've narrowed it down to three others I will box with the entry. Would love to get a longshot in the tri, and the one I like is #3 All About Allison in case that speed on the golden rail holds true. Her 36.4B work tells me she is going for it and should get the rail. Now, before this mare was off for 2+ years she was doing pretty good. Her last race was much improved over her first start back, so I'm going to take a chance on her hanging on for at least 3rd. Maragh went off two horses in this race, Catty Madeline and Megadeed to ride #7 Swept the Series and as many have mentioned this could be an "on" race for her. Also like the fact that Prado thought she was good enough to ride and since he doesn't appear to be riding today, the jock switch doesn't bother me. If he had went to another or even was riding in other races, I would have thrown her out. The 4th horse that interests me is #10 Waytotheleft. She has a very good record on the inner track and I like her last work. So, trying for a decent Tri, I will play: $4 Tri Box 1E,3,7,10 = $96 $4 Win #3 = $ 4 Good luck everyone; don't forget, there is no super in this race. Sigh Annie
Dave K More than 1 year ago
HG 112 $1 tri box 1 4 7 9 10 $60.00 $1 tri box 1 4 7 9 $24.00 $8 exacta box 4 7 $16.00 I love reading Steve T.'s posts. Looking forward to more of your thoughts and insights into this great sport.
zarpo More than 1 year ago
handigambling 112 $25 tri 1/10/4,6 1/4,6/10
Peter Vescovo More than 1 year ago
OK since there is no super on the HG race it looks to me like the best value will be a tri. I would like to think that the #1entry can be beat but it looks unlikely #1 has improved with each race and #1a has the jockey and the best time at dist. and 2nd best time on inner track. But favorites are there to be beaten. That said I'm using them anyway. Hoping for something long underneath. Picks for Today: $2Tri 1/2-4-6-7/ALL = $64 $1Tri ALL/1/2-4-9-10 =$36 That's on the money! Good luck and keep up the analysis on the 2y.o. crop it has been great reading and a help in compiling my horses to watch list. Thanks.
cayman01 More than 1 year ago
beforetreading into handigambling 112 waters did anyone notice that in Unusual heat's pp's he raced 6 times in the Us with 5 of those at BSF of 100+ in ALLOWANCE races and won only two of them. Either the competition was a lot tougher back then or the BSF figurer was a lot more generous. If a horse today put up that stretch of BSF's he/she would be a G1 winner. Handigambling 112: Opening day on the AQU inner course will be sunny and cool with light winds. A no excuses day weather wise.... 1)CATTY MADELINE, here's a late blooming 3YO woth a nice Beyer pattern but on turf. What will she do on the unique AQU strip? She'll have all kinds of pace to chase, if she takes to the surface she wins. 1A) RIZZI'S TWIST, if entrymate flops on surface she sure can pick things up for the team. Runs fine over the inner dirt, BUT her first off layoff is not nearly her best, iffy. 2)ANITA ROSITA, love those NY state bred purses. Anywhere else with these BSF's and she hasn't made $10k lifetime..... Overmatched, Pass. 2B)SO SMASHLEY, see above. However she does have some form over the inner dirt, and might actually pass a horse unlike many of the frontrunners in here.Being forwardly placed she might actually hang on in the bottom of the super/tri spots as closers get stuck behind horses backing up. 3)ALL ABOUT ALLISON, will inherit the rail and go as long as she can. Third start in cycle should have her primed. Don't know where she fits BSF wise as she hasn't raced in two years. The comeback was an obvious workout that trainer didn't like so he put her in for a tag and she got scooped. Somebody saw something they liked. Not many take a chance on a horse who's off two years. If the rail is gold.... 4)SORORITY SISTER, one of the closers who'll be coming late. 1 for 1 with Coa aboard but looks just a bit light in the Beyers. underneath only. 5)INSTANT LADY, another need-the-lead type who'll give her backers a little excitement early and probably none late. She's 2-0-1 in three starts with Bocachica aboard. If she clears she could be dangerous but i do not see that happening. 6)MEGADEED, trainer does poorly with blinker add ons. like the 1 she fits if she takes to the inner dirt course. Lots of pace to chase. Should get a nice spot behind the BBQ and the class relief should help also. Very playable. 7)SWEPT THE SERIES, yet another frontender who's on/off button is switched to "on" for this race. Can pass a horse which helps along with firm ground. Interesting that Maragh ends up here. Intriguing. 8)SEASON'S WISE, see #2.Overmatched, pass. 9)AEGEAN BREEZE, recent form is awful, but inner dirt mark is good. Should be prominent if return to favorite course is all she needs. 10)WAYTOTHELEFT, serviceable inner dirt record and stalking style puts her in the mix. Should get first run ahead of closers. What to do, what to do? I just have a feeling one of the speed horses is going to run off and hide. Which one? No clue. I wouldn't touch this race with my money, but with dan's let's take a stab... .10 SUPER BOX 3,4,5,7,9,10 $36 $20 EX BOX 1,6 $40 $1 SUPER KEY 1/6,7,9,10/6,7,9,10/6,7,9,10 Will watch results for first few races to see how track is playing.
cayman01 More than 1 year ago
Okay, no scratches and no superfectas in HG 112. Thank you NYRA. So, I'll go bombing in the trifecta. 1,3,5,9,10/1,6,7,9,10/1,4,6,7,9,10 $98 1/2,7/2,7
johnnyz More than 1 year ago
Steve T, Ditto on your 5:51 post. I agree with everything you said. Along that same line of thoughts here is a response to your question on the top five sprinters. I thought about that for sometime, as many who could have went down in history as great sprinters were also great at classic distances. If I had to list a #1 at sprinting it would be Dr Fager. Yes, I know he won more races at longer distances, also was a champion on turf but, his record setting 7F in the Vosburgh at AQE (120 1/5) which stood I think stood for twenty nine yrs. stamps his place in history as a sprinter. A couple other distance horses that could have been great sprinters were Hoist The Flag, and Bold Forbes. A few other sprinters I would rank high are Artax, Kona Gold, Speightstown, Xtra Heat and would be very remiss without mentioning Lost In The Fog. Many would not include this one as a great one as he bombed finishing 7th in the BC. I will always think that his cancer had already set in by that race. His record prior to the BC winning ten times on seven different tracks all over the U.S. (I Think) is very commendable. Here is a link to Dr Fager's win @ AQE in the Vosburgh: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NGSWeForlE Calvin, Old Fashioned would not be my pick right now to win the Derby. If someone were to put a gun to my head, I would pick the Mclaughlin trained Charitable Man. Would have been Vineyard Haven if he wasn't going to vacation the winter in Dubai. Old Fashioned has much to overcome with his pedigree. The Unbridled's Song/Meadowlake nick has only produced three stakes winners and, two of those were in Argentina. I like him because he appears to be very talented and, Larry Jones will have him "peak" ready if he makes the big dance! Jim Tully, what a great play with words. I don't know where but, somewhere down the road I will have some fun with your phrase M.M. BTW, I agree with your thoughts on how Unbridled's Song was managed, just a travesty. Also while maybe not a Derby horse, I saw today that Quality Road a winner @ AQE in the 4th Sat. recieved a 101 bsf for his 6 1/2F win in a MSW, time was 1:16.1 then again may be a Derby horse? Tinky, (saved the best for last) lol! I respect your "classical" approach to the races. Convential wisdom should never be discarded IMO. Albeit, I really feel one needs to think "outside the box" in todays racing world. I operated with the same mindset for years. In 2003, I really liked Funny Cide in the Derby. Which BTW was the year I decided to delve into pedigree study. Anyway, because of his pedigree I convinced myself there was no way he could win at 10F. Worse the only place I played him was on the bottom of a tri ticket. Fast forward to 2004, Oaklawn Park is my home track so to speak. I was at the Ark. Derby and saw Smarty Jones win. So the sentimental side of my brain let me bet him to win in the Derby, although the right side of my brain was questioning my judgement because of his pedigree! Where I am going with this is many classic trends in racing is out the window. With your knowledge and expertise I don't think I need to state the obvious but, the last three Derby winners: Big Brown, Street Sense, and Barbaro all won despite bucking historical Derby winning trends. Also I understand to the T your thoughts on percentages. I play pool, 8/9 ball, one pocket etc. at a pretty high level. Every shot I make, offensive or defensive always comes down to is it a better % to run out, or play safe. Sometimes my decision is altered by the amount of the wager involved. The only reason I bring this up is my most profitable days/nights whether racing, pool playing, or poker have been when I have been agressive and not went with the normal flow.
Annie More than 1 year ago
Oops! Peter Vescovo is right. The entries sheet shows no super on this race. Maybe because of the two entries? Have to go back and refigure my bets. Annie
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
tencentcielo Bravo on your P6 story! I see getting over the flu has not impacted any of your OLA sensibilities! ...now, how is your handicapping?? SR Vegas PS...passing on HG112...gotta' deal with some water damage & mold, compliments of my up-stairs neighbor...AARRGGGHHHHH!
BigEasyBig Chok More than 1 year ago
HG 112: $2 tri 1/2,4,5,8/2,4,5,8 $2 tri 4/1,2,5,8/1,2,5,8 $10 ex 4/1,2,5,8 @4 tri bx 1,2,4 Should be $100.00 even BigEasyBigChok