12/02/2008 3:29PM

Lots of questions, pp requests

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Dan, Everybody,
Would you all mind taking a look at a race for me and tell me what you think - race 6 at Hollywood yesterday. Watch the 4 Spanish Bunny (who I absolutely unloaded on). She is well positioned coming into the stretch, and then aggressively starts to move into contention and then stalls - and it certainly didn't look like it was a distance issue - was it an issue with passing horses? Like maybe she needs blinkers? I am absolutely perplexed as to why she didn't win. Now, take a look at Race 3, another UH, Mensa Heat, did exactly the same thing. I would REALLY like others opinions on these two, cause I can;t explain it - both looked for all the world like they were going to win and then... Thanks
Steve T.

I just don't think Spanish Bunny was very good.  She seemed a bit eager coming out of the gate, but soon was in a nice spot just off the leaders.  Perhaps blinkers would allow her to settle down better, but she seemed to be trying her best in the lane, and was simply outkicked. 
Mensa Heat ran okay, but she had the run of the rails turning for home, and wasn't good enough.  She was overmatched in the Generous in her next start, and might be one to watch as she returns to her proper level.  Maybe blinkers would wake her up a bit, but I just wasn't wowed by either performance.  It's possible they both need lighter competition.

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Dan
This is an article from the Courier Journal about CDI possibly interested in buying TVG.  Would this be a good thing or a bad thing if it happened?  It might help alleviate some of the disarray and confusion surrounding ADWs, but it might also give Churchill too much control and consolidated power over the airwaves.

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20081123/BUSINESS/811230470/1037/SPORTS08
Also, can anyone answer this for me...why doesn't twinspires.com merge with xpressbet.com?  Some sort of anti-trust thing?  Seems to me that Churchill has the money to spend (based on the numbers released during the Q3 conference call) and Magna needs all the revenue it can get.
g or g

If CDI purchased TVG, you probably would have a lot of happy account-wagering holders as the partnership would likely show Churchill, Fair Grounds, Calder, and Arlington along with the TVG tracks (NYRA, etc). 
Whether this would affect TVG's existing deals with Magna tracks (and whether Stronach would pull out) is another story.  Would Gulfstream (for example) pull out due to TVG and CDI becoming one and the same?  I'm not a fan of racetracks controlling media outlets, but if you could get more eyeballs and money into the game via wagering and television, then that's a good thing overall for the industry.  I just think CD would be in a great position of power to control source fees, and might drive tracks away that won't match their price. 
Considering the state of the economy combined with the state of the Magna stock, I think CDI is doing the right thing by waiting out xpressbet.  Why spend the money now to help out the competition when it's quite possible that Magna will eventually throw in the towel, and CDI could get everything for a vastly-reduced price?

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Tinky, Blue, Dan, Everybody,
I would really like to explore the whole idea about where progeny fall out in relationship to their dam and sire for surface and distance, and what a realistic predictive analysis of their performance should be. Since I know Unusual Heat extremely well, would you mind using him for our analysis? He is a California sire versus the "name" sires, but is no slouch either. So figure he is not going to get the RTR's of the world, but will get some nice CalBred mares.
Dan,
Would you mind posting the lifetime PP's for Unusual Heat, his sire Nureyev and his dam Rossard?
Steve T
.

Here's what I have.  Past performances for Nureyev aren't complete, and I'm not sure if Rossard's pp's are complete as well.  I'm not sure if distance, class, or surface factors from the sire and dam alone are conclusive predictors as to a foal's chances at success at said distance, class, or surface.  That's why the old saying is "breed the best to the best, and hope for the best."  Conformation, soundness, and class of the entire female family are only three of the many other factors that affect breeding.   

Download UnusualHeatFam.pdf

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dan, you cant hit anything, can you
horses

Mom, I told you not to bother me at work.

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Dan, can you post Dixieland Band's past performances?
Please?
Paseana80

Download dixieland_band.pdf

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CAN YOU PLEASE GIVE AN UPDATE ON WANDERIN BOY?
rsdcpa

Rsdcpa,
According to the NTRA article I read on the race, Wanderin Boy, was put down ( RIP, big boy ).  He apparently shattered his left front.
Craig

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Does anyone know if War Pass was retired?
vince

War Pass will stand his first season at stud next year at Lane's End Farm in Kentucky for a $30,000 fee.

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Why do people insist on talking Derby contenders in November? It is too early, for Godsakes.
jim tully

It is too early, but it's just so much fun trying to find a diamond in the rough.  Here are the Derby Future Book Odds from Lucky's Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas:

Download DerbyFutures.pdf

Old Fashioned is the chalk at 12-1 followed by Vineyard Haven and Midshipman at 20-1.

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Dan,
Has any filly or mare ever been awarded a 120 Beyer? In researching it I could find two who received 119's (Inside Information in the 95 BC Distaff and Hidden Lake in the 1997 Hempstead) but no 120's.
Steve T

Xtra Heat earned a 120 for her dominating win in the Sweet 'n' Sassy Stakes at Delaware in 2001

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Dan,can you print Wanderin' Boys PP's.He was a neat old horse that had to overcome a lot before he even made it to the races
never_bend

Download Wanderin.pdf

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Back with some more questions, and the HandiGambling pick in tomorrow's blog.

Take care,

Dan