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Lots to cover
Let's get to some of your questions and comments.
I will go $100.00 win on # 7 with Jockey jean cruguet on board. Last time I bet on Cruguet was when he was training Shebakayskittycat. Hey Dan how about pulling up the pp's of Sheba skayskittycat, or however you spell it.
The past performances for Shebekayskittycat are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Dan - Can you tell me what happened to Careless Jewel? I see that she was taken off the Watchmaker Watch. Big fan of this horse
Careless Jewel has not raced this year. It was reported that her trainer, Josie Carroll, found "heat" in a leg and there were quarter crack issues as well. Her last workout was in May. It's possible that she's been retired, but I haven't heard anything definitive.
I was cleaning up something and came across a program from 2002. In it, it had a bet on Carson Hollow. That remind me of her epic stretch duel with You. Could i please get the PPs for both of these fast females?
The past performances for Carson Hollow and You are available at the bottom of this blog post.
How about the PPs for my favorite horse ever, former HOY, Holy Bull!
thanks in advance..
The past performances for Holy Bull are available at the bottom of this blog post.
I may have missed it, but what are your thought's on this BURNS DETTE ISSUE??
It's a tragedy when any horse breaks down. Unfortunately, this business can be rather cold and callous at times.
In a suspicious situation like this, I would take to task the track's Racing Secretary, and Veterinarian. Burna Dette was claimed for $25,000 on June 24. She was only beaten 5 1/2 lengths for $16,000 on July 21. When she is entered back for a $2,000 tag only 16 days later, one has to question what she's doing in the race.
She was more than likely claim fodder, but when it looks like a skunk and smells like a skunk, it's up to racetrack management to protect the betting public (Burna Dette was 4-5), the racehorses themselves, and any potential owner that would purchase a possibly injured animal. Our sport has enough nightmares as it pertains to public relations. A horse like this, a very suspect dropdown, should either have to pass a detailed veterinary examination, or would not be allowed to partake in the proceedings. We've seen maidens entered in Grade 1 stake races and they haven't been cleared to compete.
Let's take Nicky Boy, a three-year-old filly, as an example. Nicky Boy, despite an awful race record, was scheduled to be entered in the Wood Memorial as well as in two different graded races on the Summit of Speed Card at Calder.
From David Grening (posted on March 31, 2010):
The New York Racing Association avoided a potential embarrassing situation when it denied entry into the Wood to the maiden filly Nicky Boy, who had been defeated 120 3/4 lengths in two starts at Sunland Park. That decision was made easier due to the late entry of Most Happy Fella, whose presence in the field made for six runners, enabling trifecta wagering to be offered on the race.
"It's our right to not accept the entry,'' said P.J. Campo, NYRA's director of racing.
From Mike Welsch (posted on July 7, 2010):
From Mike Welsch (posted on July 10, 2010):
Campo's above phrase is key. "It's our right to not accept the entry."
Racing secretaries and track veterinarians throughout the country need to be pro-active in dealing with skeptical situations. It's impossible to stop all breakdowns, but the Burna Dette incident was worrisome on paper and might have been avoided.
Hi Dan, For years I've been trying to get the full PP's for Kelso. If there is anyway for you to post them I'd be most appreciative. Many thanks
Past performances for Kelso are available at the bottom of this blog post.
I am new to the sport, but have fallen head-over-hills for it over the past month or two. I think it is incredible what you guys do at DRF - providing so much data and analysis. I love motorsports too, but the short time duration of horse races make them equally exciting - but in a different way. Success in motorsports has a great deal to do with technology and engineering (i.e., $). Horse racing is all about inherent "God-given" ability. That's a significant difference.
I wanted to ask you to reccommend some of the very best books ever written on the topic of horse racing handicapping. I'm looking for the cream-of-the-crop, the must haves - if you will. The classics.
Thanks for all you guys do. And keep up the good work.
Welcome. For newcomers, "Handicapping 101: A Horse Racing Primer," by Daily Racing Form's Southern California analyst, Brad Free, is a must-read.
Also recommended are the "Best of the Best" series, the "Handicapper's Condition Book," by James Quinn, "Exotic Betting," by Steven Crist, and just about anything written by Andrew Beyer.
All of these are available on our website:
You worked with horses in your younger days. What was your attitude toward them, and what
did you observe about the attitudes of the horsemen around you?
I think that the vast majority of backstretch workers are there because they love what they do and they love horses. It's not for the paycheck, that's for sure. When I was working on the backstretch at Yonkers, on my summers and vacations away from school, I did it because I wanted to be around the horses. The work was backbreaking, the hours were long, and the pay was awful, but it all seemed worth it when I walked into the barn early in the morning. It's hard to explain, but there's something about a horse that is soothing for a person's soul. You get to know the horses in the barn and they become like part of the family. Some are nasty. Some are sweet. Some like people. Some want to rip your fingers off. All need care.
There was a filly in the barn that didn't have a great deal of ability. I don't believe she ever won a race. But, boy, was she a character. Whenever I walked into the barn, I'd whistle. She'd charge to the front of her stall and would holler until she got a long hug and a scratch on the nose. Whenever music blasted throughout the shedrow, she'd sway to and fro to the beat.
The boss was never pleased when this happened. "Get away from that !@#$%!^ and get to work," he'd scream.
Some horsemen treated this game solely as a business. As horse ownership can be nothing more than a money-pit at times, it's understandable.
There are always going to be bad apples in any business. There certainly are in our business. I like to think of the many good people that truly love the horses.
Is Dublin hurt? After that horrible start but solid finish in the Preakness, he was my horse to watch for the summer and fall, but he's kind of dropped of the radar. What's D. Wayne doing with him?
From David Grening (posted on August 16):
Lukas said Dublin, last year’s Hopeful winner, is still recovering from surgery to have an ankle chip removed, but could resume tack-walking by the end of the month.
Lukas said the chip was discovered during a routine physical a short while after Dublin finished fifth in the Preakness. Prior to that, Dublin ran seventh in the Kentucky Derby.
Lukas said Dublin, who is stabled in Saratoga, is scheduled to get re-examined on Aug. 28 and if he gets a clean bill of health, then he could start walking under tack the next day.
While Lukas said it is possible Dublin could return to the races later this year, he said more likely he would wait until the colt’s 4-year-old season to run him with an eye on races such as the Hal’s Hope and/or Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park.
Hi Dan, Doing great job! Just want to know if you saw 2yr old filly Tell a Kelly run at Del Mar 8/14 in the 4th race. She had terrible trip first time out. She was closing strongly in traffic. On Sunday, she unloaded a big move to run past a loose 3/5 shot and gallopped out unreal. John Sadler might be already looking at his Kentucky Oaks horse . She is a Tapit out of Tabasco Cat mare. If you see replay You will have her on your horses to watch list.
Saw both of her races. She looked good last time, making an eye-catching run along the inside on the turn before angling to the four path turning for home. Tell a Kelly received an 81 Beyer for the win and looks stakes-bound for Sadler.
Seeing last Arlington Million and how was easily catched Gio Ponti by a second class Europe invader, do you think American turfers are weaker? Is there any hope that Gio Ponti could revenge in the BC Turf against top class like Fame and Glory, Rip van Winkle or Workforce? and could you post pps for these champs Stardom Bound, Tuscan Evening and Gloria de Campeao and old glories Swaps, Nashua, Sword Dancer, Cardmania and Native Diver?
Thank you so much
José Iglesias García
I don't know if "weaker" is the right way to describe it, but we're playing their game going long on the turf and imports have made monkeys of our good grass horses for a long time now. In a big race situation, it's worthwhile to cast a long glance at any European import.
Could Gio Ponti win the Breeders' Cup Turf? Sure, he could. I'm not sure I would play him at 12 furlongs at possible short odds against the top Europeans, but we know he has the quality to win a race of that magnitude.
The past performances you requested are at the bottom of this blog post.
The FormBlog convention will be held at Arlington Park on Saturday, September 11 and Sunday, September 12. I want to thank PGM, Steve Taylor, chicago gerry, Laura, and everyone else that has been involved in the planning of the event. It should be a great amount of fun. It'll be a weekend of community among horseplayers at one of the most beautiful tracks in the country.
Arlington Park will host a handicapping contest that afternoon. For more information on the contest, head on over to the following link:
Also, the feature races on Saturday are the historic Arlington-Washington Futurity for juvenile colts and the Arlington-Washington Lassie for two-year-old fillies. There will also be a handicapping seminar with Professor Scott McMannis and myself in conjunction with the contest.
I'm looking forward to meeting everyone and having a temendous time enjoying the greatest sport in the world with the best racing fans on the internet.
You can check out the information page at Iron Maidens:
Questions or reservations can be e-mailed to email@example.com
I'm going to wait until we get the "Official" sign from cayman before I post the HG199 winner. Let's do the Travers on Saturday as the next exercise.
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Saturday August 28 : Day at Saratoga Race 1: Tough race to start off Travers day as the key contenders have either ran well and then disappointed or are coming off a layoff. There are no standouts in this race so will take a conservative approach and do a five horse triple box for a dollar and then a five horse super box for fifty cents. The 9 has ran against better but if asked to select a horse on top, hard backing a layoff horse who figures to be the favorite running the 7f distance and instead would side with the 5 YA GOTTA HAVE SOUL. In his past two races, YA GOTTA HAVE SOUL was taken a hard hold off early to sit off the pace and in both cases, the horse who took the lead took the field wire to wire. YA GOTTA HAVE SOUL has more early speed than shown and I expect the cheap speed of the 6 and 7 to hook up early with Castellano having the 5 perfectly situated behind. But hard to endorse with confidence so boxing 5-9-7-1-2 and perhaps press 5-9 in exacta box. Race 2: Clueless and will watch the board to see if any first time starters is being bet heavy or if any first time starters from unknown barn is taking sneaky money, especially the 9 horse coming in from Philly Park. Off the horses who have run, the 5 PROMISE ME A CAT had a eventful first start, hesitating from the gate, then getting bumped and endured a two to three wide trip while behind horses but when clear in the stretch, finished up nicely. The 6 coming in from California will likely be favorite having shown speed first out but poly to dirt and likely being odds on, another tough favorite to endorse. Hopefully I'll have discipline and tread lightly on this race playing perhaps a pick 4 using a few or simply skipping the race, which I know is not possible, that being the case maybe just box 5-9-2-3-6. Race 3: Another race I do not have a strong opinion in as the ones who have run obviously ran well but who knows if one of the first time starters is a freak, so need to watch the board again. Of the ones who have started, I would lean towards the 4 but I am more intrigued by the 8 GOLD TRADER. Yes, it seems like my day so far is based on how successful Javier Castellano does, but he jumps off the 7 who just missed last out to ride a first time starter from the McGaughey barn and Castellano/McGaughey has had some success in the past. Treading lightly once again and taking conservative approach of boxing the 8-4-1-3-7. Race 4: As rain finally hit New York earlier this week, the turf is not speed-bias and will go against the horses who won on the front engine recently. This is a very contentious race so you should be paid well if you hit it as I doubt any horse who go off less than 3-1 in this spot. Most intrigued with the 8 QUIET ON THE TEE who ran well last year but could not get over the hump while trained by Clement. Was then switched to the Englehart barn and was a disaster at 1/2 while starting at Finger Lakes, but has subsequently won two straight on synthetic and then the grass against weaker, but more importantly he just ran his lifetime best beyer and takes a big stepup in class, both of which are positives signs. Add to it, there should be some pace on the front end. Still he is not a standout and will box 8-5-6-2-11 and will then press exacta of 8-5 and perhaps an additional ticket with the 8 in the top spot. Race 5: Absolutely clueless...am intrigued by both the 7 and 10 but this is a race to follow where the money is. Be nice if we see a potential triple crown threat from this race as it would help make up a horrible early card to the Travers. Race 6: Spoke too soon, another horrendous race carded on Travers Day. If the 13 CITY TRAIN draws in, he would be the top choice but guessing he won't, in which its the 8 CHINGACHGOOK race to lose. But once again looking for value considering the 8 always runs well but not well enough. Yet another race where I'll box 6-8-1-2-9. ...whether I'll actually stick to playing ONLY a 1 triple box and 50 cent super box on the first six races remains to be seen as I know once I'm at the track, I'll get swayed and lose concentration...need to be disciplined for once as I can't ill afford to lose another 4k like last week because of the mood I was in...onto the latter races of the card... Race 7: Hopeful the 13 PREMIUM GOLD draws in as he was entered earlier in the meet but was scratched as I was impressed with his most recent race, chasing the early pace, passing the leader and getting caught late. There are a couple of other horses who figure to show speed but with the outside draw, Castellano has no choice but to gun early for the lead and I'll take my chances at big odds that PREMIUM GOLD goes wire to wire. Box 13-11-5-8-9 but will press the 13. Race 8: As long as the turf course plays fair, this race should be won from off the pace as the 4, 7 and 10 figure to vie early and tire when they hit the stretch. The 3 PHOLA will finally get some pace and having faced better recently, I expect she'll be the favorite and not the 4-1 morning line that is listed. I will box the closers which appears to be the 3-1-8-9 but I will also throw in the 5 STRIKE THE BELL who is my top choice to pull off the upset as she will be sitting right behind the early pace and will make first run on the turn and hopefully have something left to hold off the closers in the stretch. Race 9: The 3 RAPPORT is the dominant speed in the race but what do you do with a filly whose best efforts were on the poly and who has been up the track on dirt. I'm hoping she is speed crazy and runs a 21 4/5 opening quarter and gets hounded by the 4,6 and 9 as I like the 7 BEYONDALLBOUNDARYS a lot in this race. In her previous two races, BEYONDALLBOUNDARYS displayed a very nice turn of foot during the middle stages of the race and I hope the speed hook up allowing Borel to make the winning move on the turn and power away for the win. Will play her to win and then key on top of the 1 and 8 in exactas and throwing in the 4 and 9 in supers. Race 10: Keep waiting and keep losing on the 2 WARBLING to run back to the 107 beyer she recorded four back and no doubt the number does look phony as she hasn't been within 15 points in her past few starts. But I like her in this spot as I'm not a fan of both the 1 and 5 who I feel has ran against lesser competition. The rail horse has speed but having to break from the rail, I imagine Castellano will either sit right off and take over the lead on the turn or if the rail horse breaks slow, just clear the field and attempt to take them wire to wire. Hard to imagine anyone else but the 2, 3 or 4 winning this race but like the 2 to win and will press exacta over the 4 and lightly on the 3. Race 11: Even though the 5 BULLDOGGER is the dominant speed and has looked good winning both lifetime starts at Saratoga, I am against BULLDOGGER for two reasons, the race he recently won, he was lone speed being chased by the longest shot on the board and they ran 1-2 around the track and he shipped back to California and now ships back to the East Coast, both negative signs to me. I have a hard time looking pass the favorite, the 4 DISCREETLY MINE who has looked good as a sprinter. Not a stretch to just play a cold exacta over D'FUNNYBONE. As the other sequence of the pick 4 is more competitive, this will be my single. Race 12: Will go on record and say that I have not hit any of the triple crown races nor most of the prep races ever since ESKENDEREYA went down with an injury so its hard endorsing anyone in here with much confidence. I wagered on MINER'S RESERVE last out and didn't box and to my dismay he runs second at 15-1. The reason I mention MINER'S RESERVE is that I hope he runs in here because he only adds to the lively early pace as he has no option but to hustle out early. The two horses I like in here are the 2 TRAPPE SHOT and the 7 AFLEET EXPRESS but I do have concerns. When TRAPPE SHOT was stretched out, they have asked that he rate and this has taken away the dominant nature he won his sprint races where they just let him run freely. Will Garcia be aggressive in her or will he be ridden conservatively? With AFLEET EXPRESS, its the same except he has one additional bad habit and that is breaking tardy from the gate. I will box the 7-2 and leaning towards the 7, but will also box tri and super with the 10-5-3. Race 13: If I'm winning for the day, will box 1-2-4-8-9 and then watch the replay later as being at the track from 10:30 - 6:00, better be winning... Lastly, will wager against Rachel Alexandria and wager cold exacta on LIFE AT TEN / MISS SINGHSIX. Am a big fan of Rachel but just has not been impressed with her this year. Good luck to everyone... KYL Syndicate
Hope this starts off a big weekend of racing by putting a smile on your face: One day while he was at the track playing the ponies and all but losing his shirt, O'Brian noticed a Priest who stepped out onto the track and blessed the forehead of one of the horses lining up for the 4th race. Lo and behold, that horse--a very long shot--- won the race. Before the next race, as the horses began lining up, O'Brian watched with interest as the old Priest stepped onto the track. Sure enough, as the horses for the 5th race came to the starting gate the Priest made a blessing on the forehead of one of the horses. O'Brian made a beeline for a betting window and placed a small bet on the horse. Again, even though it was another long shot, the horse the Priest had blessed won the race. O'Brian collected his winnings, and anxiously waited to see which horse the Priest would bless for the 6th race. The Priest again blessed a horse. O'Brian bet big on it, and it won. O'Brian was elated. As the races continued the Priest kept blessing long shot horses, and each one ended up coming in first. By and by, O'Brian was pulling in some serious money. By the last race, he knew his wildest dreams were going to come true. He made a quick dash to the ATM, withdrew all his savings, and awaited the Priest's blessing that would tell him which horse to bet on. True to his pattern, the Priest stepped onto the track for the last race and blessed the forehead of an old nag that was the longest shot of the day. O' Brian also observed the Priest blessing the eyes, ears, and hooves of the old nag. O'Brian knew he had a winner and bet every cent he owned on the old nag. He then watched dumbfounded as the old nag come in dead last. O'Brian, in a state of shock, made his way down to the track area where the priest was. Confronting the old priest he demanded, "Father! What happened? All day long you blessed horses and they all won. Then in the last race, the horse you blessed lost by a Kentucky mile. Now, thanks to you I've lost every cent of my savings---all of it!". The priest nodded wisely and with sympathy. "Son," he said, "that's a problem with you Protestants; you can't tell the difference between a simple blessing and last rites."
HG Travers $2 Supers 5/4,6,11/4,6,11/3,7,8,10 =$48 4,6,11/5/3,7,8,10/4,6,11 =$48
Another Saturday stakes pick before I leave: DMR8 PacificCl-G1 (10f 3up): pp4 Temple City -> The 5yo should be at/near the front (the only other speed is Valenzuela's horse to the inside) and once Temple City takes the lead in the race, I don't think the others will be able to catch him. Temple City just won a G3 at 12f, came out of that race great (check out his bullet DMR work last week) and is bred for this distance/oozing class. (WP pp4 Temple City) Uncle Steve BTW, if you are still lurking out there, do you remember when I touted Temple City as a Derby horse in Jan09 - after his maiden win, not realizing he was a 4 yo? It's fun to sometimes go back and read our comments on these potential prospects: http://www.drf.com/blogs/happy-new-year?page=2#comments Dan, Going back to Jan09 makes me nostalgic for the "Blue Thongs calendar" Do you still have a copy in DRFland to share with us? blackstone, My biggest mistakes in handicapping contests is panicking and going against my "gut feeling" first selection. I rarely make a good decision changing a selection in real-time. Often however I'm forced to change picks near the end to try to catch-up, but again I tend to panic much too early in those situations. Maybe I should premedicate with Ativan prior to the contest races? Of course, sometimes a last-minute pick can change everything. Two years ago, John Conte hit a 20+/1 longshot in the final mandatory race, which also was our final race in the NHC. John jumped over 10 contestants to win 1st prize. Speaking of changing my picks... cayman01, I'm sorry, but after thinking it over last night for HandiGambling, I'd like to just do a straight exacta of #7 Afleet Express over #8 First Dude. I'm gonna lean heavily on Afleet Express in my P4s (he may be my only 'A' for the race) and also in the weekend contests, so I might as well do the same for HandiGambling. $100 EX 7/8. $100 TOTAL Thanks again for all the work you do managing the contest!! BTW, once again my family has screwed me out of watching an important race by having a family event all afternoon tomorrow. "Travers...what is that?" I hate having to put in my contest picks and multi-race wagers prior to even knowing the early scratches. I think I gotta buy myself a smart phone. My kids...uh 18, 24 and 26yos - they all have them, but not me! I'm still using a flip phone from the Stone Age. Perhaps I'll borrow one of their phones and take extended "bathroom breaks"? Good luck this weekend!!
Mickey, "He hasn't been worse then 2nd, and has always been RIGHT there at the wire" That's my point: "right there", but not winning. Last year, I didn't like the way Gio Ponti lost to Interpatation before the Breeders Cup. I indeed hated him the Classic, although I didn't consider any of my opinions very solid on Santa Anita's main track. While he didn't finish 7th, he still had the race won at one point. Of course, Zenyatta is Zenyatta... however, Gio Ponti, who won 4 Grade 1s and 5 of his 6 previous races, has now lost 6 of his last 7. Beyond that, he has lost many of those by surrendering the lead. The way he lost to Karelian at Tampa Bay Downs sealed it for me. Where did the excuses get bettors since then? Three losses as a (heavy) favorite and 1 win at 2-5... a squeeker over a 50-1 shot whose last win came in a $40k claiming race. Yeah, he was never a "great" horse... but he was surely better than this. Bottom line question: if you can excuse his recent losses, would you bet Gio Ponti to win the Breeders Cup Turf against C-level Euros? I wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot pole in that race right now. In fact, I consider him a bad multirace play in any graded turf race until I start seeing a change. Curt, I'm a little out of the loop right now, as I've been extremely busy... what is going on with the takeout in California? Is it going to 30%? If their takeout stays the same and DelMar and Hollywood convert back to dirt as well, I would indeed play SoCal exclusively.
HG Travers $80 Win Super Saver, $20 exacta Super Saver over First Dude I know Super Saver can get the distance as he has proven it against a 20 horse field and is bred for it... and I hope/think he's ready to run. I don't think the Derby was a fluke; I just think it took a lot out of him and he was spent heading into the Preakness. I'm not going to write off the Derby win despite the weather that day and I think to do so is wishful thinking. It is too early to write off Super Saver's Kentucky Derby win because it looked legitimate to me and the way the other horses that ran well in the race were all pretty much diminished in their next start makes me think the track on Derby day was just very tiring and it has taken most of the Derby horses a while to come back around to top form. First Dude is a legitimate threat from the 4 post with his speed but I really think First Dude is best at a shorter distance and he will have company up front. I think he'll hit the board but I don't like his chances to win.
Sheriff Dan I., I hope I'm not one upping you, but, the HG Travers ? I think I'll wait to see which SLEWSTER you put on top......No ? Patience is a Virtue, they say...& you've been on a hot streak...No ?
Bob C................That story was great, there's nothing a devoted Catholic likes more than some good old protestant humor, or should I say humor at the expense of a protestant. I'm in Albany......getting ready to go to dinner, watched the Baruch on the TV. Have to say at up to 1 1/8 Get Stormy would give any turf horse a run for their money. He looked the part. Busy night.....looking over the card for tomorrow, KNM I'll get to the 4th race later tonight. Mike A
Blackseabass, Brilliant and funny commentary. You express the attraction of being a horseplayer. The Appaloosa over the Paint! Priceless. Alan, Our analysis is very similar which correct or not, gives me confidance. I've heard Kimmel talking up Friend or Foe based on his gallop out in the Jim Dandy. But if you watch closely, it's Afleet Express who "gallops out up to the winner". And just for a moment on the replay as AE weaves inside A Little Warm reaching the clubhouse turn, you can almost see AE cock his head at him and laugh as he effortlessly passes by. Afleet Express by 3. Bank Merger won going extremely wide on opening day. By all reports even Keiran was surprised. They didn't expect THAT in his 3 yr old debut after being laid up with shins as a juvenile. Well, he did it. And now they enter the Kings Bishop in a race with 3 incredibly fast colts. All talented, but all happiest on the lead. And going quick. Pace play anyone? Its a classic pace handicapping set up, yet with an unseasoned horse, 90% of the bettors will simply let him go as not good enough. Really. We'll see. Bank Merger by a neck.
Curt V, In regards to your 8/26/10 5:17 pm post . I'm picking up what you're laying down. It ain't rocket surgery ! I like to think of myself as a fisherman, not a FISH ! I guess you feel the same. Good for you. Slots as a panacea ? Don't make us laugh. Right CV ? You've posted the place to see the data on the correlation between tracks with slots and excessive take-out. You can lead a donkey away from poisoned water but you can't keep him from going back. Nobody is going to give an example of a track that got slots or a casino and raised its handle on horses. Why? Because there aren't any. Saying that slots could be ,would be,might be good for the game is blowing smoke.